<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Workers-at-a-base-metal-plant.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Workers-at-a-base-metal-plant.png"/></p>
<p>最近基础金属价格的急剧上涨促使德国商业银行（Commerzbank AG）提高了对短期商品的展望。</p>
<p>德国商业银行外汇和商品研究负责人阮氏兰（Thu Lan Nguyen）在一份报告中表示：“我们已调整了基础金属价格预测，现在预计大多数情况下价格将高于之前的预期。”</p>
<blockquote>
<p>然而，我们认为，铜价的上涨在某种程度上是有些过早的，因为供应情况仍然良好，并且在短期内还有轻微的修正潜力。</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>价格预测</h2>
<p>这家德国银行预计，到年底铜价将平均达到每吨 10,500 美元，而之前的预测为每吨 9,600 美元。</p>
<p>在铝方面，该银行预计年底铝价将平均达到每吨 2,900 美元，而之前预测为每吨 2,600 美元。</p>
<p>锌价也预计将平均达到每吨 3,000 美元，而之前为每吨 2,800 美元。</p>
<p>阮氏兰表示：“在这里，我们也认为上涨潜力暂时已经耗尽。”</p>
<p>然而，这家德国银行下调了对镍价的预测，预计镍价将平均达到每吨 15,000 美元，而之前的预测为每吨 16,000 美元。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>在这里，也明显显示出未来金属生产的增长将不再那么活跃，但镍市场在可预见的未来将保持良好的供应，这对价格施加了下行压力。</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>铝溢价上涨</h2>
<p>美国铝进口的价格溢价已达到历史新高，继续急剧上升。这是在月初短暂下跌之后的情况。</p>
<p>这种情况可能是由于国内供应短缺，受到 50% 的美国进口关税的影响，加上全球市场（美国以外）的供应紧缩。</p>
<p>欧洲溢价的上升表明了这一趋势。年初时，由于美国的铝关税过高，导致美国以外市场的供应情况暂时改善，这些溢价最初有所下降。</p>
<p>阮氏兰表示：“然而，这种情况现在似乎已经结束。”</p>
<blockquote>
<p>自 10 月中旬以来，伦敦金属交易所（LME）库存的下降也表明，美国关税的影响并没有持续太久。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>根据阮氏兰的说法，10 月底库存的显著激增，超过了最近的下降，可能是由于一家大型商品交易商为金融交易交付库存所致。</p>
<p>此后，库存再次开始下降。这一下降趋势，加上溢价的上升，表明中国——主要生产国——可能优先考虑国内和区域需求，这可能是由于金属生产放缓。</p>
<p>此外，西方公司已停止考虑来自俄罗斯的金属。在乌克兰战争之前，俄罗斯是欧洲这一材料的重要供应国。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>如果有迹象表明中国将很快减少铝的出口，溢价的上涨可能会继续。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>德国商业银行提高基础金属展望但在溢价飙升中下调镍预测的文章首发于 Invezz。</p>

<p>德国商业银行（Commerzbank AG）因近期价格上涨，提高了对基础金属的短期展望，预计到年底铜的平均价格将达到每吨 10,500 美元，铝的平均价格将达到每吨 2,900 美元。然而，该行已将镍的预测下调至每吨 15,000 美元，理由是市场供应充足。此外，由于国内供应短缺和全球市场收紧，美国的铝进口溢价已达到创纪录高位，这表明如果中国减少出口，铝的价格可能会继续上涨</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Workers-at-a-base-metal-plant.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Workers-at-a-base-metal-plant.png"/></p>
<p>The recent sharp price increase in base metal prices have prompted Commerzbank AG to raise their outlook for the commodities in the short-term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近基础金属价格的急剧上涨促使德国商业银行（Commerzbank AG）提高了对短期商品的展望。</p>
</div><p>“We have adjusted our base metal price forecasts and now expect them to be higher than previously thought in most cases,” Thu Lan Nguyen, head of FX and commodity research at Commerzbank, said in a report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德国商业银行外汇和商品研究负责人阮氏兰（Thu Lan Nguyen）在一份报告中表示：“我们已调整了基础金属价格预测，现在预计大多数情况下价格将高于之前的预期。”</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>However, we maintain that the rise in copper prices in particular was somewhat premature given the still favorable supply situation and see slight further potential for correction in the short term.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>然而，我们认为，铜价的上涨在某种程度上是有些过早的，因为供应情况仍然良好，并且在短期内还有轻微的修正潜力。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Price forecasts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>价格预测</h2>
</div><p>The German bank expects copper prices to average $10,500 per ton by the end of the year compared with previous forecast of $9,600 per ton.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家德国银行预计，到年底铜价将平均达到每吨 10,500 美元，而之前的预测为每吨 9,600 美元。</p>
</div><p>In terms of aluminium, the bank sees prices averaging $2,900 per ton at the end of the year compared with $2,600 per ton predicted earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在铝方面，该银行预计年底铝价将平均达到每吨 2,900 美元，而之前预测为每吨 2,600 美元。</p>
</div><p>Zinc prices are also seen averaging $3,000 per ton compared with $2,800 per ton.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>锌价也预计将平均达到每吨 3,000 美元，而之前为每吨 2,800 美元。</p>
</div><p>“Here, too, we assume that the upside potential has been exhausted for the time being,” Nguyen said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阮氏兰表示：“在这里，我们也认为上涨潜力暂时已经耗尽。”</p>
</div><p>The German bank, however, scaled down its forecast for nickel prices, and expects prices to average $15,000 per ton against $16,000 per ton forecast previously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这家德国银行下调了对镍价的预测，预计镍价将平均达到每吨 15,000 美元，而之前的预测为每吨 16,000 美元。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Here, too, it is becoming apparent that metal production will grow less dynamically in the future, but the nickel market will remain well supplied for the foreseeable future, which is putting downward pressure on prices.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>在这里，也明显显示出未来金属生产的增长将不再那么活跃，但镍市场在可预见的未来将保持良好的供应，这对价格施加了下行压力。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Aluminium premiums rise</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>铝溢价上涨</h2>
</div><p>The price premiums for aluminium imports to the US have reached a new all-time high, continuing their sharp ascent. This follows a short dip at the start of the month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国铝进口的价格溢价已达到历史新高，继续急剧上升。这是在月初短暂下跌之后的情况。</p>
</div><p>The situation is likely a result of domestic supply shortages, triggered by the 50% US import tariffs, combined with a tightening of supply in the global market outside of the US.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种情况可能是由于国内供应短缺，受到 50% 的美国进口关税的影响，加上全球市场（美国以外）的供应紧缩。</p>
</div><p>The rising premiums in Europe indicate this trend. Initially, these premiums dropped at the start of the year because the prohibitive US aluminium tariffs had temporarily improved the supply situation in markets outside the US.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲溢价的上升表明了这一趋势。年初时，由于美国的铝关税过高，导致美国以外市场的供应情况暂时改善，这些溢价最初有所下降。</p>
</div><p>“However, this now seems to be over,” Nguyen said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阮氏兰表示：“然而，这种情况现在似乎已经结束。”</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>The decline in LME inventories since mid-October also indicates that the effect of US tariffs has not lasted long.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>自 10 月中旬以来，伦敦金属交易所（LME）库存的下降也表明，美国关税的影响并没有持续太久。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>The significant jump in inventories at the end of October, which more than offset the recent decline, was likely the result of a large commodity trader delivering stock for financial deals, according to Nguyen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据阮氏兰的说法，10 月底库存的显著激增，超过了最近的下降，可能是由于一家大型商品交易商为金融交易交付库存所致。</p>
</div><p>Inventories have since begun falling again. This decline, coupled with increasing premiums, suggests that China—the primary producer—may be prioritising domestic and regional demand, likely due to a slowdown in metal production.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此后，库存再次开始下降。这一下降趋势，加上溢价的上升，表明中国——主要生产国——可能优先考虑国内和区域需求，这可能是由于金属生产放缓。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, Western companies have ceased considering metal sourced from Russia. Prior to the war in Ukraine, Russia was a significant supplier of this material to Europe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，西方公司已停止考虑来自俄罗斯的金属。在乌克兰战争之前，俄罗斯是欧洲这一材料的重要供应国。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>If there are signs that China will soon be exporting less aluminium, the rise in premiums may continue.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>如果有迹象表明中国将很快减少铝的出口，溢价的上涨可能会继续。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>The post Commerzbank raises base metal outlook but cuts nickel forecast amid soaring premiums appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德国商业银行提高基础金属展望但在溢价飙升中下调镍预测的文章首发于 Invezz。</p>
</div>

德国商业银行上调了基本金属的前景展望，但由于溢价飙升，下调了镍的预测