<p>曾经与拥有房屋同义的美国梦，如今对年轻一代来说变得愈发难以实现。a16z 的 Alex Rampell 和 Rocket Companies 的首席执行官 Varun Krishna 深入探讨了这一危机的根本原因，强调资产通货膨胀和缺乏创新如何将住房从一个可及的财富积累的跳板转变为少数特权者的奢侈品。他们的讨论不仅揭示了潜在的系统性问题，还展示了 Rocket Companies 通过垂直整合和技术进步来颠覆住房市场的雄心勃勃的战略。</p>
<p>2010 年，购房者的中位年龄为 30 岁；而今天则为 38 岁。这在短短十四年内的八年增长，正如 Rampell 所描述的，指向了一个灾难性的问题。他认为，根本问题在于财富分配的变化，“所有的老年人都拥有所有的钱。” 这不仅仅是现金工资滞后的问题，而是资产价格的通货膨胀，这在消费者价格指数中并未体现。虽然现金工资可能每年仅有 3% 的温和增长，但标准普尔 500 指数每年复合增长 10%，使得股票和房地产等资产相对于收入变得不成比例地更有价值。</p>
<p>购房的能力已成为两个城市的故事：那些拥有现有资产或继承资产的人，以及那些没有的人。Rampell 用一个引人注目的例子来说明这一点：“如果你恰好在苹果公司工作，过去 25 年湾区的房子变得便宜了很多。如果你在一家没有任何所有权的公司工作，你只是拿工资，那么房价就变得贵了很多。” 这一严酷现实突显了当前经济环境如何偏向资产拥有者，为首次购房者创造了重大障碍。</p>
<p>除了财富差距，住房的供应侧也面临着一系列挑战。Rampell 回忆起 Levittown，这是二战后在纽约建立的计划社区，数千套住房迅速建成，以满足归国士兵的需求。那个时代土地丰富，人口较少，监管障碍较少，允许快速建设和广泛的房屋拥有权。如今，情况正好相反。建设缓慢、成本高昂，并且受到监管复杂性的困扰。“如果你今天想在帝国大厦更换一块窗户，可能需要两年，” Rampell 打趣道，突显了扼杀建设的官僚和后勤困境。他将这一问题的很大一部分归因于 “NIMBY 主义”（不在我家后院），即现有房主抵制新开发以保护他们的财产价值，间接助长了住房短缺。</p>
<p>Varun Krishna 承认这些文化变化和更高的房价，指出自 1950 年代以来，平均起始房屋的面积从 985 平方英尺增加到 2500 平方英尺，反映了期望的变化。然而，他强调技术在解决供应问题上的潜力。机器人技术、3D 打印和先进材料科学等创新可以大幅降低建设成本并加快建设时间。人工智能的更广泛应用，超越生成文本，可以自动化制造和物理任务，显著压缩住房建设的工作流程。这一愿景旨在通过简化整个过程，使房屋拥有权不仅更实惠，而且更可及。</p>
<p>Rocket Companies 正在通过战略收购和对垂直整合的承诺积极追求这一愿景。Krishna 解释说，抵押贷款过程本身是一个复杂、分散的旅程，涉及发起、承保、二级市场销售和服务。每个步骤通常由不同的实体处理，造成了消费者的低效率和摩擦。Rocket 的战略是将这些分散的部分连接成一个无缝的 “超级漏斗”。通过收购 Redfin（用于房屋搜索和房地产）和 Mr. Cooper（用于抵押贷款服务）等公司，Rocket 旨在提供一个端到端的房屋拥有体验。这种整合使他们能够与客户建立更强大、持久的关系，超越 “一次性交易，转变为日常关系”。</p>
<p>Krishna 强调了抵押贷款业务中 “客户终身价值”（LTV）的重要性。虽然其他科技公司在将日活跃用户货币化方面苦苦挣扎，但 Rocket 将与房主的长期关系视为极具价值。通过服务 1000 万客户，代表美国六分之一的抵押贷款，Rocket 拥有一个庞大的未来金融产品、房屋净值贷款和其他服务的目标受众。这种深度参与使他们能够理解客户需求，并主动提供解决方案，而不仅仅是在 “第 23 个小时” 出现进行单次交易。这种整合的方法，将改善客户体验与强大的金融产品和高效的建设方法相结合，是 Rocket Companies 对解决住房危机和为新一代重新定义美国梦的大胆赌注。</p>

COOP

<p>Rocket Companies 旨在解决影响年轻一代的住房危机，首席执行官 Varun Krishna 和 a16z 的 Alex Rampell 对此进行了讨论。他们强调了资产通胀和监管障碍等问题，这些问题使得拥有住房变得越来越不可及。该公司计划通过垂直整合和技术创新，简化抵押贷款流程和建筑过程，利用人工智能和机器人等先进技术。通过收购 Redfin 和 Mr. Cooper 等公司，Rocket 希望创造无缝的住房拥有体验，培养与客户的长期关系，并为未来几代人重新定义美国梦</p>

<p>The American Dream, once synonymous with homeownership, has become an increasingly elusive prospect for younger generations. Alex Rampell of a16z and Varun Krishna, CEO of Rocket Companies, delve into the root causes of this crisis, highlighting how asset inflation and a lack of innovation have transformed housing from an accessible stepping stone to generational wealth into a luxury for the privileged few. Their discussion reveals not just the systemic issues at play but also Rocket Companies’ ambitious strategy to disrupt the housing market through vertical integration and technological advancement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>曾经与拥有房屋同义的美国梦，如今对年轻一代来说变得愈发难以实现。a16z 的 Alex Rampell 和 Rocket Companies 的首席执行官 Varun Krishna 深入探讨了这一危机的根本原因，强调资产通货膨胀和缺乏创新如何将住房从一个可及的财富积累的跳板转变为少数特权者的奢侈品。他们的讨论不仅揭示了潜在的系统性问题，还展示了 Rocket Companies 通过垂直整合和技术进步来颠覆住房市场的雄心勃勃的战略。</p>
</div><p>In 2010, the median age for a homebuyer was 30; today, it’s 38. This eight-year jump in just fourteen years points to a catastrophic issue, as Rampell describes it. He argues that the fundamental problem is a shift in wealth distribution, where “all the old people have all the money.” This isn’t merely about cash salaries lagging behind, but about asset price inflation, which isn’t captured by the Consumer Price Index. While cash salaries might see a modest 3% annual bump, the S&amp;P 500 compounds at 10% a year, making assets like stocks and real estate disproportionately more valuable relative to earned income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2010 年，购房者的中位年龄为 30 岁；而今天则为 38 岁。这在短短十四年内的八年增长，正如 Rampell 所描述的，指向了一个灾难性的问题。他认为，根本问题在于财富分配的变化，“所有的老年人都拥有所有的钱。” 这不仅仅是现金工资滞后的问题，而是资产价格的通货膨胀，这在消费者价格指数中并未体现。虽然现金工资可能每年仅有 3% 的温和增长，但标准普尔 500 指数每年复合增长 10%，使得股票和房地产等资产相对于收入变得不成比例地更有价值。</p>
</div><p>The ability to purchase a home has become a tale of two cities: those with existing assets, or who inherit them, and those without. Rampell illustrates this with a compelling example: “If you happen to work at Apple, houses have gotten a lot cheaper in the Bay Area in 25 years. If you happen to work at a company where you have no ownership in anything, you’re just getting paid a salary, house prices have gotten a lot more expensive.” This stark reality underscores how the current economic landscape favors asset owners, creating a significant barrier for first-time buyers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>购房的能力已成为两个城市的故事：那些拥有现有资产或继承资产的人，以及那些没有的人。Rampell 用一个引人注目的例子来说明这一点：“如果你恰好在苹果公司工作，过去 25 年湾区的房子变得便宜了很多。如果你在一家没有任何所有权的公司工作，你只是拿工资，那么房价就变得贵了很多。” 这一严酷现实突显了当前经济环境如何偏向资产拥有者，为首次购房者创造了重大障碍。</p>
</div><p>Beyond wealth disparity, the supply side of housing presents its own set of challenges. Rampell reminisces about Levittown, the post-World War II planned community in New York where thousands of homes were built rapidly using innovative techniques to meet the demand from returning GIs. This era saw abundant land, a smaller population, and fewer regulatory hurdles, allowing for quick construction and widespread homeownership. Today, the situation is reversed. Building is slow, expensive, and mired in regulatory complexities. “If you wanted to change like a window pane [in the Empire State Building today], it would probably take two years,” Rampell quips, highlighting the bureaucratic and logistical quagmire that stifles construction. He attributes much of this to “NIMBYism” (Not In My Backyard), where existing homeowners resist new development to protect their property values, inadvertently fueling the housing shortage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了财富差距，住房的供应侧也面临着一系列挑战。Rampell 回忆起 Levittown，这是二战后在纽约建立的计划社区，数千套住房迅速建成，以满足归国士兵的需求。那个时代土地丰富，人口较少，监管障碍较少，允许快速建设和广泛的房屋拥有权。如今，情况正好相反。建设缓慢、成本高昂，并且受到监管复杂性的困扰。“如果你今天想在帝国大厦更换一块窗户，可能需要两年，” Rampell 打趣道，突显了扼杀建设的官僚和后勤困境。他将这一问题的很大一部分归因于 “NIMBY 主义”（不在我家后院），即现有房主抵制新开发以保护他们的财产价值，间接助长了住房短缺。</p>
</div><p>Varun Krishna acknowledges these cultural shifts and higher home prices, noting that average starter homes have tripled in size from 985 to 2,500 square feet since the 1950s, reflecting changing expectations. However, he emphasizes the potential for technology to address the supply issue. Innovations like robotics, 3D printing, and advanced material science could drastically reduce construction costs and accelerate building timelines. The broader application of AI, beyond generative text, could automate manufacturing and physical tasks, significantly compressing the workflow for home construction. This vision aims to make homeownership not just more affordable but also more accessible by streamlining the entire process.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Varun Krishna 承认这些文化变化和更高的房价，指出自 1950 年代以来，平均起始房屋的面积从 985 平方英尺增加到 2500 平方英尺，反映了期望的变化。然而，他强调技术在解决供应问题上的潜力。机器人技术、3D 打印和先进材料科学等创新可以大幅降低建设成本并加快建设时间。人工智能的更广泛应用，超越生成文本，可以自动化制造和物理任务，显著压缩住房建设的工作流程。这一愿景旨在通过简化整个过程，使房屋拥有权不仅更实惠，而且更可及。</p>
</div><p>Rocket Companies is actively pursuing this vision through strategic acquisitions and a commitment to vertical integration. Krishna explains that the mortgage process itself is a complex, fragmented journey involving origination, underwriting, secondary market sales, and servicing. Each step is often handled by disparate entities, creating inefficiencies and friction for the consumer. Rocket’s strategy is to connect these fragmented parts into a seamless “super funnel.” By acquiring companies like Redfin (for home search and real estate) and Mr. Cooper (for mortgage servicing), Rocket aims to offer an end-to-end homeownership experience. This integration allows them to build stronger, lifelong relationships with customers, moving beyond a “once-in-a-lifetime transaction into an everyday relationship.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rocket Companies 正在通过战略收购和对垂直整合的承诺积极追求这一愿景。Krishna 解释说，抵押贷款过程本身是一个复杂、分散的旅程，涉及发起、承保、二级市场销售和服务。每个步骤通常由不同的实体处理，造成了消费者的低效率和摩擦。Rocket 的战略是将这些分散的部分连接成一个无缝的 “超级漏斗”。通过收购 Redfin（用于房屋搜索和房地产）和 Mr. Cooper（用于抵押贷款服务）等公司，Rocket 旨在提供一个端到端的房屋拥有体验。这种整合使他们能够与客户建立更强大、持久的关系，超越 “一次性交易，转变为日常关系”。</p>
</div><p>Krishna highlights the importance of the “lifetime value” (LTV) of a customer in the mortgage business. While other tech companies struggle to monetize daily active users, Rocket sees the long-term relationship with a homeowner as incredibly valuable. By servicing 10 million clients, representing one in six mortgages in the US, Rocket has a massive captive audience for future financial products, home equity loans, and other services. This deep engagement allows them to understand customer needs and proactively offer solutions, rather than just appearing at the “23rd hour” for a single transaction. This integrated approach, combining an improved customer experience with robust financial products and efficient construction methods, is Rocket Companies’ bold bet on fixing the housing crisis and redefining the American Dream for a new generation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Krishna 强调了抵押贷款业务中 “客户终身价值”（LTV）的重要性。虽然其他科技公司在将日活跃用户货币化方面苦苦挣扎，但 Rocket 将与房主的长期关系视为极具价值。通过服务 1000 万客户，代表美国六分之一的抵押贷款，Rocket 拥有一个庞大的未来金融产品、房屋净值贷款和其他服务的目标受众。这种深度参与使他们能够理解客户需求，并主动提供解决方案，而不仅仅是在 “第 23 个小时” 出现进行单次交易。这种整合的方法，将改善客户体验与强大的金融产品和高效的建设方法相结合，是 Rocket Companies 对解决住房危机和为新一代重新定义美国梦的大胆赌注。</p>
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房屋所有权的高昂成本：Rocket Companies 计划如何解决这一问题