<p>你好，读者。</p>
<p>在我开始近 30 年的全球宏观投资生涯之前，我还是一个在南加州收集珍贵钱币的孩子，比如行走的自由女神半美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-41.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-41.png"/></p>
<p>这枚银币铸造于 1916 年至 1947 年，正面描绘了自由女神面向灿烂的阳光。她手持月桂和橡树枝，象征着民事和军事的荣耀。在硬币的背面，一只秃鹰栖息在岩石上，象征着力量。</p>
<p>作为一件艺术品，这枚法式古典风格的半美元在所有铸造的美国硬币中名列前茅。</p>
<p>虽然投资于在阳光下闪闪发光并在你把它们放在桌子上时发出叮当声的实物资产有时令人感到安慰，但贵金属市场在传统分析上可能非常困难。这是因为黄金从来不会在全国开设分店并产生现金流。它只是一个静静存在的物品。</p>
<p>银也是在很大程度上如此。（尽管，过去几年银的工业消费量激增，主要是因为太阳能。）</p>
<p>当然，所有的预测都是一种猜测。但当涉及到贵金属时，这就像是三重或四重猜测，因为它们不是生产性资产。</p>
<p>从童年到投资者，我一直是黄金和白银的忠实粉丝。而这两者本周都出现了新的上涨。</p>
<p>所以，在今天的 <strong><em>聪明钱</em></strong> 中，我想分享我对贵金属市场现状的看法——双关语。</p>
<p>让我们深入探讨…</p>
<h2><strong>贵金属的重新上涨</strong></h2>
<p>多年来我对市场的一个认识是，最高的波动性往往是逆趋势的。如果一个市场经历了急剧下跌，那可能是一个牛市。换句话说，它缓慢上涨，然后你会看到急剧下跌。</p>
<p>反之亦然：如果你看到一个市场趋势向下，但随后出现了突然的短期回补反弹，那通常是逆趋势的动作。</p>
<p>将这一点应用于黄金和白银市场，我们看到市场一直在上涨。不仅仅是今年，而是过去两三年。因此，当你看到快速而剧烈的一天、两天或三天的抛售——就像几周前看到的那样——通常是在持续的牛市中的逆趋势动作。</p>
<p>今年黄金上涨超过 55%；并且仍在朝着自 1979 年以来最佳年度表现的方向前进。尽管它最近从上个月的历史高点回落，但本周金属价格达到了近三周的高点，交易价格超过每盎司 4100 美元。</p>
<p>黄金的传统避险地位促进了其近期的增长。尽管众议院预计今天将投票结束政府停摆，但持续的经济不确定性依然存在。</p>
<p>我长期以来一直推荐黄金和其他贵金属作为对不确定性的对冲。在我的 <strong><em>弗莱投资报告</em></strong> 中，我目前的两项黄金推荐上涨超过 200%。而那些在 <strong><em>杠杆</em></strong> 中跟随我 <strong>SPDR 黄金股票（GLD）</strong> 推荐的人在七个月内获得了高达 220% 的收益。</p>
<p>现在，虽然我专注于长期的重大趋势，比如黄金的多年攀升，但我的同事 <strong>Jonathan Rose</strong> 则专注于这些趋势中的短期 “激增点”。</p>
<p>Jonathan 使用独特的交易策略来确定快速收益。在这个策略中，有一个叫做 “预期移动” 的东西。</p>
<p>在他昨天的 <strong><em>交易大师直播</em></strong> 视频中，Jonathan 查看了 GLD 的 “预期移动”——我推荐的公司，并分享了他对黄金市场的期望。</p>
<p>让我们来听听…</p>
<h2><strong>从激增点中获利</strong></h2>
<p>这是 Jonathan…</p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>预期移动是资产在 30 天内的潜在移动。这是市场认为股票或指数可能上下移动的幅度。</em></p>
<p><em>想象一下，就像体育比赛中的 “高于/低于”。你可能会有高于/低于，或者一场足球比赛的总得分是 50。这是总得分。超过 50，你就押注高于。低于 50，你就押注低于。这就像一个二元事件。</em></p>
<p><em>当价格接近预期移动时，交易者往往会获利或降低风险。如果价格突破过去的预期移动，这就意味着可能会发生一些意想不到的事情。</em></p>
<p><em>GLD 正好在预期移动附近。</em></p>
<p><em>我认为黄金将继续向上发展，不会像之前那样回落。</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>在 2020 年夏天，Jonathan 准确找到了另一种贵金属的激增点。他注意到银市场 “崩溃”，即黄金价格飙升，但银价停滞不前。这使得黄金与白银的比率达到了几十年来的最高水平。</p>
<p>他正确预测这只是时间问题，银价将会修正并大幅上涨。因此，他告诉他的会员进行交易，押注银价的激增。</p>
<p>下面的图表显示了接下来发生的事情。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-40.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-40.png"/></p>
<p>金属的价格立即飙升。</p>
<p>简单来说，Jonathan 研究华尔街最重要的资金如何提前布局。</p>
<p>而我最近在本周早些时候与他一起参加了一个特别的 <strong><em>利润激增活动</em></strong>，他解释了如何跟踪实时的买入压力变化可以帮助你与市场的真正领导者保持同步。</p>
<p>但这还不是全部。Jonathan 还展示了如何通过简单的调整将收益乘以 500% 或更多。</p>
<p>如果你错过了，不用担心。你仍然可以 <strong>在这里观看重播</strong>，看看 Jonathan 和我如何看待当前的市场环境——以及你如何为 2025 年的最后阶段提升你的策略。</p>
<p><strong>点击这里观看我们特别活动的免费重播。</strong></p>
<p>此致，</p>
<p>Eric Fry</p>

BULL

<p>本文讨论了近期黄金和白银价格的上涨，强调黄金今年上涨超过 55%，创下自 1979 年以来的最佳表现。作者指出，尽管黄金传统上被视为避风港，但其市场可能会波动且难以分析。近期的抛售被视为在持续牛市中的逆趋势行为。作者还强调了在黄金和白银方面成功的投资建议，并提到一位同事的交易策略，专注于黄金市场的短期收益</p>

<p>Hello, Reader.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你好，读者。</p>
</div><p>Before I began my nearly 30-year career as a global macro investor, I was a kid in Southern California collecting precious numismatic coins, like the Walking Liberty Half Dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我开始近 30 年的全球宏观投资生涯之前，我还是一个在南加州收集珍贵钱币的孩子，比如行走的自由女神半美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-41.png" alt="" original-src="https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-41.png"/></p>
<p>This silver piece, minted from 1916 to 1947, features Lady Liberty turned towards a brilliant sun. She holds both laurel and oak branches, symbolizing civil and military glory. On the back of the coin, a bald eagle perches on a rocky crag, representing strength.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这枚银币铸造于 1916 年至 1947 年，正面描绘了自由女神面向灿烂的阳光。她手持月桂和橡树枝，象征着民事和军事的荣耀。在硬币的背面，一只秃鹰栖息在岩石上，象征着力量。</p>
</div><p>As a work of art, this Beaux-Arts half-dollar ranks atop the most beautiful American coins ever minted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为一件艺术品，这枚法式古典风格的半美元在所有铸造的美国硬币中名列前茅。</p>
</div><p>While it’s sometimes comforting to invest in hard assets that gleam in the sunlight and clang when you drop them on a table, the precious metal market can be very difficult to analyze on a traditional basis. That’s because gold never opens franchises across the country and generate cash flow. It’s just a thing that sits there.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然投资于在阳光下闪闪发光并在你把它们放在桌子上时发出叮当声的实物资产有时令人感到安慰，但贵金属市场在传统分析上可能非常困难。这是因为黄金从来不会在全国开设分店并产生现金流。它只是一个静静存在的物品。</p>
</div><p>Silver is, too, to a great extent. (Although, industrial consumption of silver has been soaring for the last few years, mostly because of solar.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银也是在很大程度上如此。（尽管，过去几年银的工业消费量激增，主要是因为太阳能。）</p>
</div><p>Of course, all prognostication is a guess. But when it comes to the precious metals, it’s like a triple or <em>quadruple</em> guess because they are not productive assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，所有的预测都是一种猜测。但当涉及到贵金属时，这就像是三重或四重猜测，因为它们不是生产性资产。</p>
</div><p>From childhood to investor-hood, I’ve been a huge gold and silver fan. And both are seeing renewed upside this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从童年到投资者，我一直是黄金和白银的忠实粉丝。而这两者本周都出现了新的上涨。</p>
</div><p>So, in today’s <strong><em>Smart Money</em></strong>, I’d like to share my two cents – pun intended – on the state of the precious metals market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以，在今天的 <strong><em>聪明钱</em></strong> 中，我想分享我对贵金属市场现状的看法——双关语。</p>
</div><p>Let’s dive in…</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们深入探讨…</p>
</div><h2><strong>Precious Metals’ Renewed Upside</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>贵金属的重新上涨</strong></h2>
</div><p>One thing I’ve learned about markets over the years is that the highest volatility that you see tends to be countertrend. If a market is punctuated by steep drops, that’s probably a market that’s in a bull market. In other words, it goes up slowly, and then you get a steep drop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年来我对市场的一个认识是，最高的波动性往往是逆趋势的。如果一个市场经历了急剧下跌，那可能是一个牛市。换句话说，它缓慢上涨，然后你会看到急剧下跌。</p>
</div><p>The converse is true: If you see a market trending lower, but then you get an abrupt, short-covering rally, that’s usually a countertrend move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>反之亦然：如果你看到一个市场趋势向下，但随后出现了突然的短期回补反弹，那通常是逆趋势的动作。</p>
</div><p>Applying that to the gold and silver market, we’ve had a market that’s been trending higher. And not just this year, but for two or three years. So, when you get rapid and wild one-, two-, or three-day selloffs – like we saw a few weeks ago – that’s generally a countertrend move in an ongoing bull market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>将这一点应用于黄金和白银市场，我们看到市场一直在上涨。不仅仅是今年，而是过去两三年。因此，当你看到快速而剧烈的一天、两天或三天的抛售——就像几周前看到的那样——通常是在持续的牛市中的逆趋势动作。</p>
</div><p>Gold is up more than 55% this year; and it remains on track for its best annual performance since 1979. And although it had a recent pullback from last month’s record high, the metal reached a near three-week high this week, trading above $4,100 per ounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年黄金上涨超过 55%；并且仍在朝着自 1979 年以来最佳年度表现的方向前进。尽管它最近从上个月的历史高点回落，但本周金属价格达到了近三周的高点，交易价格超过每盎司 4100 美元。</p>
</div><p>Gold’s traditional safe-haven status contributed to its recent growth. While the House of Representatives is expected to vote on ending the government shutdown today, ongoing economic uncertainty remains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金的传统避险地位促进了其近期的增长。尽管众议院预计今天将投票结束政府停摆，但持续的经济不确定性依然存在。</p>
</div><p>I have long recommended gold and other precious metals as a hedge against uncertainty across my services. Two of my current gilded recommendations in <strong><em>Fry’s Investment Report</em></strong> are up over 200%. And those who followed my <strong>SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)</strong> recommendations in <strong><em>Leverage</em></strong> pocketed a whopping 220% gain in seven months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我长期以来一直推荐黄金和其他贵金属作为对不确定性的对冲。在我的 <strong><em>弗莱投资报告</em></strong> 中，我目前的两项黄金推荐上涨超过 200%。而那些在 <strong><em>杠杆</em></strong> 中跟随我 <strong>SPDR 黄金股票（GLD）</strong> 推荐的人在七个月内获得了高达 220% 的收益。</p>
</div><p>Now, while I focus on long-term megatrends, like gold’s multiyear climb, my colleague <strong>Jonathan Rose</strong> zeroes in on the short-term “surge points” that occur inside those same trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，虽然我专注于长期的重大趋势，比如黄金的多年攀升，但我的同事 <strong>Jonathan Rose</strong> 则专注于这些趋势中的短期 “激增点”。</p>
</div><p>Jonathan uses a unique trading strategy to pinpoint rapid gains. And featured in this strategy is something called an “expected move.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Jonathan 使用独特的交易策略来确定快速收益。在这个策略中，有一个叫做 “预期移动” 的东西。</p>
</div><p>In his <strong><em>Masters in Trading LIVE</em></strong> video yesterday, Jonathan looked at an “expected move” in GLD – the very company I recommended – and shared his own expectations for the gold market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在他昨天的 <strong><em>交易大师直播</em></strong> 视频中，Jonathan 查看了 GLD 的 “预期移动”——我推荐的公司，并分享了他对黄金市场的期望。</p>
</div><p>Let’s listen in…</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们来听听…</p>
</div><h2><strong>Profiting from Surge Points</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>从激增点中获利</strong></h2>
</div><p>Here’s Jonathan…</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是 Jonathan…</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p><em>The expected move is the potential movement for an asset across 30 days. It’s how far the market thinks a stock or index might move up or down.</em></p>
<p><em>Think of it like an “over/under” in a sports game. You might have the over/under, or the collective score of a football game, be 50. That’s the combined score. Over 50, you bet on the over. Under 50, you bet on the under. It’s like a binary event.</em></p>
<p><em>When price nears the expected move, traders tend to take profits or reduce risk. If price breaks the past expected move, it signals something unexpected could potentially happen.</em></p>
<p><em>GLD is right by the expected move.</em></p>
<p><em>I think gold will continue following through to the upside and no longer pull back like it has been.</em></p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p><em>预期移动是资产在 30 天内的潜在移动。这是市场认为股票或指数可能上下移动的幅度。</em></p>
<p><em>想象一下，就像体育比赛中的 “高于/低于”。你可能会有高于/低于，或者一场足球比赛的总得分是 50。这是总得分。超过 50，你就押注高于。低于 50，你就押注低于。这就像一个二元事件。</em></p>
<p><em>当价格接近预期移动时，交易者往往会获利或降低风险。如果价格突破过去的预期移动，这就意味着可能会发生一些意想不到的事情。</em></p>
<p><em>GLD 正好在预期移动附近。</em></p>
<p><em>我认为黄金将继续向上发展，不会像之前那样回落。</em></p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Back in the summer of 2020, Jonathan pinpointed the surge point of another precious metal. He noticed that the silver markets were “broken,” i.e., the price of gold was soaring, but silver was stagnant. That sent the gold-to-silver ratio to the highest level it had been in decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2020 年夏天，Jonathan 准确找到了另一种贵金属的激增点。他注意到银市场 “崩溃”，即黄金价格飙升，但银价停滞不前。这使得黄金与白银的比率达到了几十年来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>He correctly predicted that it was just a matter of time before this corrected and silver went on a big run. So, he told his members to place a trade to bet on a price surge in silver.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他正确预测这只是时间问题，银价将会修正并大幅上涨。因此，他告诉他的会员进行交易，押注银价的激增。</p>
</div><p>The chart below shows what happened next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下面的图表显示了接下来发生的事情。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-40.png" alt="" original-src="https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-40.png"/></p>
<p>The price of the metal immediately took off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金属的价格立即飙升。</p>
</div><p>To put it simply, Jonathan studies where Wall Street’s most significant money is positioning early.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简单来说，Jonathan 研究华尔街最重要的资金如何提前布局。</p>
</div><p>And I recently joined him in a special <strong><em>Profit Surge Event</em></strong> earlier this week, where he explained how tracking real-time shifts in buying pressure can help you move in sync with the market’s true leaders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而我最近在本周早些时候与他一起参加了一个特别的 <strong><em>利润激增活动</em></strong>，他解释了如何跟踪实时的买入压力变化可以帮助你与市场的真正领导者保持同步。</p>
</div><p>But that’s not all. Jonathan also showed how applying a simple tweak can multiply the payoff by 500% or more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这还不是全部。Jonathan 还展示了如何通过简单的调整将收益乘以 500% 或更多。</p>
</div><p>If you missed it, don’t worry. You can still <strong>catch a replay here</strong> to see how Jonathan and I view our current market environment – and how you can sharpen your strategy for the final stretch of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你错过了，不用担心。你仍然可以 <strong>在这里观看重播</strong>，看看 Jonathan 和我如何看待当前的市场环境——以及你如何为 2025 年的最后阶段提升你的策略。</p>
</div><p><strong>Click here to watch the free replay of our special event.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>点击这里观看我们特别活动的免费重播。</strong></p>
</div><p>Regards,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此致，</p>
</div><p>Eric Fry</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Eric Fry</p>
</div>

黄金的上涨不仅仅是一个避险故事