<p>这是新兴市场股票终于迎来转机的一年吗？在 2025 年初，MSCI 新兴市场指数，即发展中经济体股票的主要指标，接近 2010 年 9 月时的水平。相比之下，基准标准普尔 500 指数上涨了近 500%。\n 在过去的 15 年里，新兴市场股票的表现一直落后于发达市场的同行。这是经济实力与投资回报之间最显著的脱节之一——发展中国家在全球经济产出中的份额从 2000 年的 25% 增加到去年的 45%。\n 然而，根据彭博社的数据，今年新兴市场股票已经连续上涨了 10 个月，这是自 2004 年以来最长的上涨周期。MSCI 新兴市场指数上涨了 30%，是自 2009 年以来的最佳表现。另一方面，跟踪发达经济体股票的 MSCI 世界指数上涨了约 19%。\n 在美国银行最新的全球基金经理月度调查中，净 27% 的受访者表示他们在新兴市场股票上持有超配头寸，这是全球主要股票市场中最乐观的立场。\n 然而，不仅仅是发展中经济体的股票市场表现良好。整个新兴市场资产类别的韧性迹象随处可见。上周，中国以与美国基本相同的借贷成本发行了三年期和五年期美元计价债务，而摩根大通的美元计价新兴市场主权债券指数的利差达到了自 2014 年以来的最低水平。\n 此外，地方货币债券今年以美元计价的回报超过了 16%，而流入新兴市场债券和股票基金的资金有望在四年来首次以正值结束今年。\n\n 有几个因素在起作用。首先，由于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的贸易和经济政策引发的动荡，美元在今年上半年的表现是自 1973 年以来最差的。美元走弱对新兴市场是个好消息，降低了以美元计价的债务的服务成本，从而缓解了金融条件。\n 其次，发展中国家的通货膨胀上升速度低于发达经济体。根据摩根大通的数据，9 月份新兴市场的平均通货膨胀率为 2.3%，而发达经济体为 2.8%。\n 第三，关于关税的不确定性最糟糕的时期已经过去。虽然特朗普随时可能重新发起贸易攻势，但真相已经暴露。他的多次让步削弱了他的信誉。此外，各国政府已经学会了如何应对特朗普，帮助缓解了贸易紧张局势。\n\n\n 第四，亚洲的科技驱动经济正在受益于生成性人工智能（AI）的崛起。由台湾和韩国股票推动的亚洲科技股主要指数在今年前 10 个月上涨了近 50%，是以科技为主的纳斯达克综合指数增幅的两倍多。\n 第五，也是最重要的一点，新兴市场股票在全球投资者中显著被低配，经过多年的表现不佳。今年的资金流入明显滞后于市场反弹。“即使是外资在美国股票中的小幅回撤，也可能释放出数万亿的潜在资金流出。这些资金流出中即使有一小部分转向新兴市场，也可能产生重大影响，” Eastspring Investments 在一份报告中表示。\n 然而，新兴市场资产的反弹仍处于早期阶段。随着对美元的做空押注逐渐消退，美元再次走强。自 9 月 16 日以来，美元指数上涨了 3%，主要是因为 “市场在说 ‘特朗普冲击’ 已经结束。特朗普还有什么可以震惊市场的举动？我们自己也很难想出答案，” 德意志银行的乔治·萨拉维洛斯表示。\n 尽管面临政治、制度和财政问题，美国经济的韧性超出了预期。这主要是因为更高的关税和对移民的打压所带来的影响被人工智能支出热潮所抵消。\n\n\n 特朗普不仅仅是运气好，美国仍然是 “最干净的脏衬衫”，受益于美元和美国国债市场的主导地位。只要对人工智能驱动的股票泡沫的担忧没有导致剧烈和持续的抛售，市场对美元的情绪应该会继续改善，从而对新兴市场施加更大压力。\n 新兴市场股票往往只有在发达市场股票上涨时才表现良好。这部分原因解释了亚洲科技股的脆弱。这个月华尔街以科技为主的抛售将注意力集中在亚洲股市的集中风险上。\n 在美国股市中，前五大科技股占据了超过 27% 的市值，而台湾半导体制造公司单独占据了台湾股市的 40%，三星电子和 SK 海力士共同占据了韩国股市的 40%。\n 此外，新兴市场的增长前景已不如往昔。这部分是由于中国的结构性下滑，但也因为发展中国家面临的经济和地缘政治挑战十分严峻。\n15 年的表现不佳留下了伤痕。大多数全球投资者将今年发展中经济体资产价格的反弹视为从美国多样化投资的及时机会，而不是多年来表现优异的开始。关于新兴市场复兴的讨论为时尚早。</p>

<p>新兴市场的反弹既是逃离美国的结果，也是寻找价值的体现</p>

<p>Is this the year emerging market stocks finally turned the corner? At the start of 2025, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, the main gauge of equities in developing economies, was near the same level it was at in September 2010. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 index, by contrast, was up almost 500 per cent.\nFor the past 15 years, emerging market shares have underperformed their developed market peers. This is one of the most striking disconnects between economic heft – developing countries’ share of global economic output increased from 25 per cent in 2000 to 45 per cent last year – and investment returns.\nHowever, emerging market equities have risen for 10 straight months this year, their longest winning streak since 2004, according to Bloomberg data. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has gained 30 per cent, its best year since 2009. The MSCI World Index, on the other hand, which tracks stocks in advanced economies, is up about 19 per cent.\nIn Bank of America’s latest monthly global fund manager survey, a net 27 per cent of respondents said they had an overweight position on emerging market stocks, the most bullish stance among the world’s main equity markets.\nHowever, it is not just stock markets in developing economies that are performing well. Signs of resilience across the entire emerging market asset class abound. Last week, China issued three- and five-year dollar-denominated debt at essentially the same borrowing costs as the United States, while spreads on a JPMorgan index of US dollar-denominated emerging market sovereign bonds are at their lowest level since 2014.\nMoreover, local currency bonds have returned more than 16 per cent in dollar terms this year, while flows to emerging market bond and equity funds are on track to end the year in positive territory for the first time in four years.\n\nThere are several factors at play. First, the US dollar had its worst first half of the year since 1973 because of the turmoil unleashed by US President Donald Trump’s trade and economic policies. A weaker dollar is a boon to emerging markets, easing financial conditions by making it cheaper to service dollar-denominated debts.\nSecond, inflation in developing countries is rising at a slower pace than in developed economies. According to data from JPMorgan, the average headline rate of inflation in emerging markets in September stood at 2.3 per cent, compared with 2.8 per cent in advanced economies.\nThird, the worst of the uncertainty over tariffs has passed. While Trump could renew his trade offensive anytime, the cat is out of the bag. His repeated climbdowns have undermined his credibility. Moreover, governments have learned how to deal with Trump, helping ease trade tensions.\n\n\nFourth, technology-driven economies in Asia are benefiting from the rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI). The main index of Asian tech stocks, powered by Taiwanese and South Korean shares, gained almost 50 per cent in the first 10 months of this year, more than double the increase in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index.\nFifth, and most importantly, emerging market stocks are significantly under-owned by global investors following years of underperformance. This year’s inflows have conspicuously lagged the rally. “Even a small pullback in foreign ownership [of US stocks] could unleash trillions in potential outflows. A modest shift of these outflows into [emerging markets] could have a significant impact,” Eastspring Investments said in a report.\nHowever, it is early days for the rebound in emerging market assets. The US dollar is strengthening again as bets against it unravel. Since September 16, the dollar index has risen 3 per cent, mainly because “the market is saying the ‘Trump shock’ is over. What else is there for President Trump to do to shock the market? We are struggling to come up with an answer ourselves”, said George Saravelos of Deutsche Bank.\nFor all its political, institutional and fiscal problems, the US economy has proved more resilient than expected. This is mainly because the fallout from higher tariffs and the crackdown on immigration has been offset by the AI spending boom.\n\n\nIt is not just that Trump has been lucky, but also that the US remains the “cleanest dirty shirt”, benefiting from the dominance of the dollar and US Treasury bond market. Provided that mounting fears about a bubble in AI-driven stocks do not lead to a sharp and sustained sell-off, sentiment towards the dollar should continue to improve, putting more pressure on emerging markets.\nEmerging market stocks tend to perform well only when their developed market peers are rallying. This is partly why Asian tech stocks are vulnerable. The tech-led sell-off on Wall Street this month has focused attention on concentration risks in Asian equity markets.\nWhile the top five tech stocks account for more than 27 per cent of the value of the US equity market, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company alone accounts for 40 per cent of Taiwan’s stock market while Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix together account for 40 per cent of South Korea’s equity market.\nMoreover, growth prospects in emerging markets are not what they used to be. This is partly because of the structural downturn in China, but also because of the acute economic and geopolitical challenges facing developing countries.\nFifteen years of underperformance have left their scars. Most global investors see this year’s rebound in asset prices in developing economies as a timely opportunity to diversify away from the US rather than the start of a multi-year period of outperformance. Talk of an emerging markets renaissance is premature.\n</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是新兴市场股票终于迎来转机的一年吗？在 2025 年初，MSCI 新兴市场指数，即发展中经济体股票的主要指标，接近 2010 年 9 月时的水平。相比之下，基准标准普尔 500 指数上涨了近 500%。\n 在过去的 15 年里，新兴市场股票的表现一直落后于发达市场的同行。这是经济实力与投资回报之间最显著的脱节之一——发展中国家在全球经济产出中的份额从 2000 年的 25% 增加到去年的 45%。\n 然而，根据彭博社的数据，今年新兴市场股票已经连续上涨了 10 个月，这是自 2004 年以来最长的上涨周期。MSCI 新兴市场指数上涨了 30%，是自 2009 年以来的最佳表现。另一方面，跟踪发达经济体股票的 MSCI 世界指数上涨了约 19%。\n 在美国银行最新的全球基金经理月度调查中，净 27% 的受访者表示他们在新兴市场股票上持有超配头寸，这是全球主要股票市场中最乐观的立场。\n 然而，不仅仅是发展中经济体的股票市场表现良好。整个新兴市场资产类别的韧性迹象随处可见。上周，中国以与美国基本相同的借贷成本发行了三年期和五年期美元计价债务，而摩根大通的美元计价新兴市场主权债券指数的利差达到了自 2014 年以来的最低水平。\n 此外，地方货币债券今年以美元计价的回报超过了 16%，而流入新兴市场债券和股票基金的资金有望在四年来首次以正值结束今年。\n\n 有几个因素在起作用。首先，由于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的贸易和经济政策引发的动荡，美元在今年上半年的表现是自 1973 年以来最差的。美元走弱对新兴市场是个好消息，降低了以美元计价的债务的服务成本，从而缓解了金融条件。\n 其次，发展中国家的通货膨胀上升速度低于发达经济体。根据摩根大通的数据，9 月份新兴市场的平均通货膨胀率为 2.3%，而发达经济体为 2.8%。\n 第三，关于关税的不确定性最糟糕的时期已经过去。虽然特朗普随时可能重新发起贸易攻势，但真相已经暴露。他的多次让步削弱了他的信誉。此外，各国政府已经学会了如何应对特朗普，帮助缓解了贸易紧张局势。\n\n\n 第四，亚洲的科技驱动经济正在受益于生成性人工智能（AI）的崛起。由台湾和韩国股票推动的亚洲科技股主要指数在今年前 10 个月上涨了近 50%，是以科技为主的纳斯达克综合指数增幅的两倍多。\n 第五，也是最重要的一点，新兴市场股票在全球投资者中显著被低配，经过多年的表现不佳。今年的资金流入明显滞后于市场反弹。“即使是外资在美国股票中的小幅回撤，也可能释放出数万亿的潜在资金流出。这些资金流出中即使有一小部分转向新兴市场，也可能产生重大影响，” Eastspring Investments 在一份报告中表示。\n 然而，新兴市场资产的反弹仍处于早期阶段。随着对美元的做空押注逐渐消退，美元再次走强。自 9 月 16 日以来，美元指数上涨了 3%，主要是因为 “市场在说 ‘特朗普冲击’ 已经结束。特朗普还有什么可以震惊市场的举动？我们自己也很难想出答案，” 德意志银行的乔治·萨拉维洛斯表示。\n 尽管面临政治、制度和财政问题，美国经济的韧性超出了预期。这主要是因为更高的关税和对移民的打压所带来的影响被人工智能支出热潮所抵消。\n\n\n 特朗普不仅仅是运气好，美国仍然是 “最干净的脏衬衫”，受益于美元和美国国债市场的主导地位。只要对人工智能驱动的股票泡沫的担忧没有导致剧烈和持续的抛售，市场对美元的情绪应该会继续改善，从而对新兴市场施加更大压力。\n 新兴市场股票往往只有在发达市场股票上涨时才表现良好。这部分原因解释了亚洲科技股的脆弱。这个月华尔街以科技为主的抛售将注意力集中在亚洲股市的集中风险上。\n 在美国股市中，前五大科技股占据了超过 27% 的市值，而台湾半导体制造公司单独占据了台湾股市的 40%，三星电子和 SK 海力士共同占据了韩国股市的 40%。\n 此外，新兴市场的增长前景已不如往昔。这部分是由于中国的结构性下滑，但也因为发展中国家面临的经济和地缘政治挑战十分严峻。\n15 年的表现不佳留下了伤痕。大多数全球投资者将今年发展中经济体资产价格的反弹视为从美国多样化投资的及时机会，而不是多年来表现优异的开始。关于新兴市场复兴的讨论为时尚早。</p>
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新兴市场的上涨不仅是因为投资者逃离美国市场，也是因为他们在寻找投资价值