<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Copper-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Copper-1.png"/></p>
<p>铜价在短暂突破每吨 11,000 美元后迅速回落，因为来自中国的令人失望的经济数据以及印度尼西亚关键的格拉斯伯格矿部分重启冷却了市场热情，导致价格下跌。</p>
<p>最近关于中国工业产出的数据呈现出复杂的局面。</p>
<p>尽管整体工业生产同比增长，显示出持续增长的信号，但与前几个月观察到的势头相比，这一扩张的速度明显减缓。</p>
<h2>中国需求放缓阻碍铜价反弹</h2>
<p>这一放缓是全球商品市场分析的关键点。</p>
<p>这种放缓的趋势特别体现在金属生产领域。</p>
<p>通常，金属生产增长率的降低会被解读为供应端的约束，这通常是金属价格（包括铜）上涨的积极因素。</p>
<p>然而，这一潜在的铜价积极催化剂正被需求端深层次的问题所掩盖，特别是在中国。</p>
<p>核心问题在于国内需求的疲软，目前不足以吸收可用的供应，德意志银行表示。</p>
<h2>房地产问题削弱铜消费</h2>
<p>这种需求疲软的主要来源是房地产市场，德国银行表示。</p>
<p>中国的房地产行业再次经历显著下滑，销售下降、新开工减少，以及主要开发商面临高水平的财务困境。</p>
<p>房地产行业是铜的巨大消费市场，广泛用于新住宅和商业建筑的电线、管道和电器中。</p>
<p>这一关键终端市场的再次下滑严重影响了铜需求的前景，有效中和了金属生产数据放缓可能对铜价产生的任何支持作用。</p>
<p>因此，市场面临的情景是，结构性需求疲软对价格施加的下行压力大于任何轻微的供应端收紧。</p>
<p>“强劲的生产和疲软的国内需求的结合表明，中国将出口更多金属，” 外汇和商品研究负责人阮氏兰在一份报告中表示。</p>
<p>预计十月份铜出口超过 100,000 吨，这将使今年的总出口创下新年度记录。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>另一个原因是高位的伦敦金属交易所铜价，鼓励了出口的增加。</p>
<p>然而，库存的发展仅显示出来自中国的供应略有增加。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>自本月初以来，库存仅略有增加。</p>
<p>“然而，如果这一趋势持续下去，这可能会进一步导致铜价的下行修正，” 阮氏兰表示。</p>
<h2>铁矿石价格稳定</h2>
<p>上周新加坡交易所的铁矿石价格相对稳定，在每吨 101 美元到 103 美元之间小幅波动。</p>
<p>尽管该商品面临持续的负面新闻，这一情况依然存在。</p>
<p>此外，来自中国的铁矿石需求数据不佳并未对周五的价格产生显著影响。</p>
<p>中国十月份的钢铁生产降至 7200 万吨，同比下降 12%，为 2023 年 12 月以来的最低水平。</p>
<p>这一早期低点归因于为满足年度目标而实施的减产。</p>
<p>“在今年前十个月达到 8.17 亿吨的情况下，2025 年的年产量显然可能首次低于 10 亿吨，自 2019 年以来首次，” 德意志银行外汇和商品分析师沃尔克马尔·鲍尔在一份报告中表示。</p>
<p>中国房地产市场的持续疲软也未能提振国内钢铁需求。</p>
<p>尽管中国房地产行业的危机已持续超过四年，但十月份的数据表明近期恶化。</p>
<p>具体而言，十月份的新房销售下降近 20%，而新开工受到更显著的影响，较去年同期下降 30%。</p>
<p>鲍尔表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>总的来说，这种情况继续使我们预期铁矿石价格将走低。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>铜价因中国房地产疲软压制生产放缓而下跌的文章首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

Avino金银矿

<p>铜价下跌，因中国经济数据疲软以及印度尼西亚格拉斯伯格矿的部分重启打击了市场热情。尽管铜价曾短暂突破每吨 11,000 美元，但中国工业产出的放缓以及其房地产市场的低迷（铜的主要消费领域）导致需求下降。德国商业银行（Commerzbank AG）指出，强劲的生产和疲软的国内需求可能导致中国出口增加，进一步施压价格。尽管中国需求数据不佳，铁矿石价格仍保持稳定</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Copper-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Copper-1.png"/></p>
<p>The copper rally fizzled out quickly after the metal briefly soared past $11,000 per ton, as disappointing economic figures from China and the partial reopening of Indonesia’s key Grasberg mine cooled market enthusiasm and drove prices lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铜价在短暂突破每吨 11,000 美元后迅速回落，因为来自中国的令人失望的经济数据以及印度尼西亚关键的格拉斯伯格矿部分重启冷却了市场热情，导致价格下跌。</p>
</div><p>The recent data on industrial output from China presents a mixed picture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近关于中国工业产出的数据呈现出复杂的局面。</p>
</div><p>While overall industrial production showed a year-on-year increase, signaling continued growth, the pace of this expansion has noticeably decelerated when compared to the momentum observed in earlier months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管整体工业生产同比增长，显示出持续增长的信号，但与前几个月观察到的势头相比，这一扩张的速度明显减缓。</p>
</div><h2>China demand slowdown halts copper rally</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中国需求放缓阻碍铜价反弹</h2>
</div><p>This slowdown is a key point of analysis for global commodity markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一放缓是全球商品市场分析的关键点。</p>
</div><p>This trend of slowing momentum extends specifically to the metal production sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种放缓的趋势特别体现在金属生产领域。</p>
</div><p>Ordinarily, a reduction in the rate of growth for metal production would be interpreted as a supply-side constraint, which is typically a positive factor for metal prices, including copper.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常，金属生产增长率的降低会被解读为供应端的约束，这通常是金属价格（包括铜）上涨的积极因素。</p>
</div><p>However, this potential positive catalyst for the copper price is being overshadowed by deep-seated issues on the demand side, particularly within China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这一潜在的铜价积极催化剂正被需求端深层次的问题所掩盖，特别是在中国。</p>
</div><p>The core problem lies in the weakness of domestic demand, which is currently insufficient to absorb the available supply, according to Commerzbank AG.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>核心问题在于国内需求的疲软，目前不足以吸收可用的供应，德意志银行表示。</p>
</div><h2>Reals estate issue undercuts copper consumption</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>房地产问题削弱铜消费</h2>
</div><p>The primary source of this demand weakness stems from the real estate market, the German bank said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种需求疲软的主要来源是房地产市场，德国银行表示。</p>
</div><p>China’s property sector is once again experiencing a significant downturn, characterised by declining sales, reduced new construction starts, and a high level of financial distress among major developers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国的房地产行业再次经历显著下滑，销售下降、新开工减少，以及主要开发商面临高水平的财务困境。</p>
</div><p>The real estate sector is a colossal consumer of copper, used extensively in wiring, plumbing, and appliances for new residential and commercial buildings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房地产行业是铜的巨大消费市场，广泛用于新住宅和商业建筑的电线、管道和电器中。</p>
</div><p>The renewed downturn in this critical end-user market is severely clouding the outlook for copper demand, effectively neutralising any supportive effect that the slowing metal production figures might otherwise have had on the copper price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一关键终端市场的再次下滑严重影响了铜需求的前景，有效中和了金属生产数据放缓可能对铜价产生的任何支持作用。</p>
</div><p>Consequently, the market faces a scenario where structural demand weaknesses are exerting greater downward pressure on the price than any mild supply-side tightening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，市场面临的情景是，结构性需求疲软对价格施加的下行压力大于任何轻微的供应端收紧。</p>
</div><p>“The combination of robust production and weak domestic demand suggests that China will export more metal,” Thu Lan Nguyen, head of FX and commodity research, said in a report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“强劲的生产和疲软的国内需求的结合表明，中国将出口更多金属，” 外汇和商品研究负责人阮氏兰在一份报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>Copper exports in October are estimated to have surpassed 100,000 tons, which would result in a new annual record for total exports this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计十月份铜出口超过 100,000 吨，这将使今年的总出口创下新年度记录。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Another reason is the high LME copper price, which is encouraging increased exports.</p>
<p>The development of inventories shows only a slight increase in supply from China, however.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>另一个原因是高位的伦敦金属交易所铜价，鼓励了出口的增加。</p>
<p>然而，库存的发展仅显示出来自中国的供应略有增加。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Since the start of this month, inventories have only seen a slight increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自本月初以来，库存仅略有增加。</p>
</div><p>“However, if the trend continues, this is likely to favor a further downward correction in the copper price,” Nguyen said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“然而，如果这一趋势持续下去，这可能会进一步导致铜价的下行修正，” 阮氏兰表示。</p>
</div><h2>Iron ore prices stable</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>铁矿石价格稳定</h2>
</div><p>The price of iron ore on the Singapore exchange showed relative stability last week, fluctuating narrowly between $101 and $103 per ton.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周新加坡交易所的铁矿石价格相对稳定，在每吨 101 美元到 103 美元之间小幅波动。</p>
</div><p>This occurred despite an ongoing stream of negative news for the commodity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管该商品面临持续的负面新闻，这一情况依然存在。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, poor iron ore demand data from China did not significantly impact the price on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，来自中国的铁矿石需求数据不佳并未对周五的价格产生显著影响。</p>
</div><p>China’s steel production dropped to 72 million tons in October, marking a 12% year-on-year decrease and the lowest volume since December 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国十月份的钢铁生产降至 7200 万吨，同比下降 12%，为 2023 年 12 月以来的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>This earlier low was attributed to production cuts implemented to meet annual targets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一早期低点归因于为满足年度目标而实施的减产。</p>
</div><p>“With 817 million tons in the first ten months of the year, it is also clear that annual production in 2025 is likely to fall below 1 billion tons for the first time since 2019,” Volkmar Baur, FX and commodity analyst at Commerzbank, said in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在今年前十个月达到 8.17 亿吨的情况下，2025 年的年产量显然可能首次低于 10 亿吨，自 2019 年以来首次，” 德意志银行外汇和商品分析师沃尔克马尔·鲍尔在一份报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>The continued weakness in the Chinese property market also failed to bolster steel demand within the country.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国房地产市场的持续疲软也未能提振国内钢铁需求。</p>
</div><p>While the crisis in the Chinese property sector has persisted for over four years, October’s data indicates a recent deterioration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管中国房地产行业的危机已持续超过四年，但十月份的数据表明近期恶化。</p>
</div><p>Specifically, new property sales dropped by nearly 20% in October, and construction starts were even more significantly affected, falling 30% below the level recorded in the previous year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>具体而言，十月份的新房销售下降近 20%，而新开工受到更显著的影响，较去年同期下降 30%。</p>
</div><p>Baur said:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍尔表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>All in all, this continues to be a situation in which we would expect lower iron ore prices.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>总的来说，这种情况继续使我们预期铁矿石价格将走低。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>The post Copper falls as weak Chinese real estate overrides production slowdown appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铜价因中国房地产疲软压制生产放缓而下跌的文章首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

由于疲软的中国房地产市场影响超过了生产放缓的效应，铜价下跌