<p>作者：Frances Yue</p>
<p>但 Michael Saylor 表示，Strategy 仍在继续买入，周五说道。</p>
<p>比特币在周五下午仍然交易于$100,000 以下。</p>
<p>随着比特币本周交易低于其关键的$100,000 里程碑，近期&#34;鲸鱼&#34;（即持有大量加密货币的投资者）以及其他长期持有者的抛售，已成为近期疲软的显著因素。</p>
<p>大多数区块链分析公司将&#34;鲸鱼&#34;定义为持有 1,000 个比特币或更多的个人或机构。尽管大多数鲸鱼的身份未知，但区块链数据仍然可以通过追踪他们的加密钱包提供有关他们活动的见解。</p>
<p>这些数据显示，一些鲸鱼最近加大了比特币的销售。这是显著的，但一些分析师表示，这不一定是恐慌的迹象。他们表示，近期的抛售可能反映了稳定的获利了结，而不是恐慌抛售，这种模式与之前牛市周期中的行为一致。</p>
<p>MarketVector Indexes 的数字资产研究与战略总监 Martin Leinweber 表示，这种销售可能反映了&#34;有计划的资产分配&#34;。他说：“一些比特币持有者在比特币交易于个位数时买入，并等待了很久。最终你有了流动性，可以在不完全摧毁市场的情况下出售。”</p>
<p>尽管加密货币的多头最近抱怨市场流动性减少，但与十年前相比，买入或卖出加密货币的能力大大增强。</p>
<p>不过，令人担忧的是，鲸鱼的近期抛售与情绪恶化和买入放缓相吻合，这可能会进一步给比特币的价格施加压力，区块链分析公司 CryptoQuant 的分析师表示。根据道琼斯市场数据，最大的加密货币周五跌至$94,519，为 5 月 6 日以来的最低水平。本周迄今下跌 9.14%，有望创下自 2 月 28 日以来的最差周表现，当时跌幅为 11.36%。</p>
<p>现在与那时的对比</p>
<p>长期和大型比特币持有者的抛售并不是当前周期的独特现象，区块链数据平台 Glassnode 在最近的一份报告中写道，近期的抛售迹象表明，这些抛售是由获利了结驱动的，而非恐慌。</p>
<p>具体来看，持有比特币超过七年的鲸鱼钱包每小时出售超过 1,000 个比特币，销售似乎是定期且均匀地发生的，如下图所示，该图截至 11 月 13 日星期四。</p>
<p>根据区块链数据平台 Glassnode 的说法，比特币的&#34;支出&#34;或&#34;出售&#34;似乎是一种&#34;持续的、分阶段的分配&#34;，而不是长期持有者的突然协调&#34;抛售&#34;。</p>
<p>$100,000 的里程碑</p>
<p>与此同时，过去几个月鲸鱼的抛售似乎与比特币的$100,000 里程碑有关，这一水平长期以来被许多早期采用者视为获利的心理阈值，长期比特币投资者、专注于比特币的金融服务公司 Swan Bitcoin 的首席执行官 Cory Klippsten 表示。</p>
<p>&#34;我认识的许多早期持有者自 2017 年我进入这个领域以来就一直在谈论这个数字 [$100,000]，&#34;Klippsten 对 MarketWatch 说道。&#34;出于某种原因，那是人们总是说他们会出售一些的水平。&#34;</p>
<p>根据 Glassnode 的数据，自 2024 年 12 月比特币首次突破$100,000 以来，长期持有者的抛售加剧。</p>
<p>可能令人担忧的因素</p>
<p>不过，有一个变化的因素是市场对这种抛售的吸收方式。当长期持有者在去年年底和今年年初出售比特币时，其他买家介入以支持价格，但这种动态似乎已经发生了变化，CryptoQuant 的分析师在最近的一份报告中写道。</p>
<p>需求减弱的一个迹象可以在投资产品的流入中看到。截至周四，投资比特币的交易所交易基金（ETF）本周流出$311.3 百万，预计将连续第五周出现流出，这是自 3 月 14 日结束的五周以来最长的流出期，根据道琼斯市场数据。</p>
<p>在过去五周中，共有$26 亿流出比特币 ETF，这是自 3 月 28 日结束的五周以来最大的流出，届时流出达到$33 亿。</p>
<p>近期的价格走势也使$100,000 的门槛重新引起关注。上周，比特币短暂跌破$100,000 后反弹，然后在周四再次跌破该水平。截至周五下午，它交易于该阈值以下，一些技术分析师表示，这可能促使更多的获利了结，因为市场未能重新夺回这一关键水平。</p>
<p>此外，广泛的宏观经济环境对风险资产并不支持。这导致一些长期头寸的清算，LMAX 集团的市场策略师 Joel Kruger 指出，该集团运营着外汇和加密货币交易所。他对 MarketWatch 表示：“我们认为市场在进入第四季度时抱有过高的预期，这些预期是由季节性趋势分析驱动的，历史上在这一时期表现出色。”</p>
<p>然而，随着投资者削减对美联储 12 月降息的预期，以及疲软的劳动力市场数据引发对经济的担忧，风险资产普遍，包括比特币，面临新的压力，Kruger 指出。</p>
<p>美国股市本周收盘涨跌互现，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 0.3%。标准普尔 500 指数本周上涨 0.1%，而纳斯达克综合指数在此期间下跌 0.5%，连续两周录得亏损。</p>
<p>Saylor 仍在买入</p>
<p>尽管如此，已知的最大比特币鲸鱼之一仍在继续买入。</p>
<p>Strategy Inc.（MSTR）的董事长迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）在周五的 CNBC 上表示，该软件公司现在被视为一个杠杆比特币投资，正在 “加速” 其比特币购买，并将在周一早上报告其购买情况。</p>
<p>截至周五，Strategy 持有超过 640,000 个比特币，代表着当前比特币供应量 1,990 万的 3% 以上。Strategy 的代表没有立即回复寻求评论的电子邮件。</p>
<p>肯·希门尼斯（Ken Jimenez）和迈克尔·德斯特法诺（Michael DeStefano）做出了贡献。</p>
<p>-弗朗西斯·岳（Frances Yue）</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯社</p>
<p>11-14-25 1653ET</p>

GBTC

MSTR

<p>最近 “鲸鱼”——持有大量比特币的投资者——的抛售导致比特币价格跌破 10 万美元。分析师认为，这种抛售是获利了结而非恐慌。市场吸收这些抛售的能力减弱，比特币 ETF 也出现了显著的资金流出。更广泛的宏观经济环境和技术因素也对比特币价格施加了压力，导致其自 2 月份以来表现最差的一周</p>

<p>By Frances Yue</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Frances Yue</p>
</div><p>But Strategy is still buying, Michael Saylor said on Friday</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 Michael Saylor 表示，Strategy 仍在继续买入，周五说道。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin was still trading below $100,000 Friday afternoon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币在周五下午仍然交易于$100,000 以下。</p>
</div><p>As bitcoin traded below its key $100,000 milestone this week, recent selling by &#34;whales&#34; - or holders of large amounts of the cryptocurrency - along with other long-term holders has emerged as a notable contributor to the recent weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着比特币本周交易低于其关键的$100,000 里程碑，近期&#34;鲸鱼&#34;（即持有大量加密货币的投资者）以及其他长期持有者的抛售，已成为近期疲软的显著因素。</p>
</div><p>Most blockchain-analytics firms define &#34;whales&#34; as individuals or institutions holding 1,000 bitcoin or more. Although the identities of most whales are unknown, blockchain data can still offer insights into their activity by tracking their crypto wallets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数区块链分析公司将&#34;鲸鱼&#34;定义为持有 1,000 个比特币或更多的个人或机构。尽管大多数鲸鱼的身份未知，但区块链数据仍然可以通过追踪他们的加密钱包提供有关他们活动的见解。</p>
</div><p>Those data have shown that some whales recently stepped up their bitcoin sales. That's notable, but it's not necessarily a sign of panic, some analysts said. The recent selling could reflect steady profit-taking rather than panic dumping, they said, a pattern consistent with behavior seen in previous bull-market cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些数据显示，一些鲸鱼最近加大了比特币的销售。这是显著的，但一些分析师表示，这不一定是恐慌的迹象。他们表示，近期的抛售可能反映了稳定的获利了结，而不是恐慌抛售，这种模式与之前牛市周期中的行为一致。</p>
</div><p>Such sales could reflect a &#34;calculated distribution of assets,&#34; according to Martin Leinweber, director of digital-asset research and strategy at MarketVector Indexes. &#34;Some bitcoiners bought [the crypto when it was trading] at single digits and waited so long. Finally you have the liquidity to sell without destroying the market completely,&#34; he told MarketWatch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketVector Indexes 的数字资产研究与战略总监 Martin Leinweber 表示，这种销售可能反映了&#34;有计划的资产分配&#34;。他说：“一些比特币持有者在比特币交易于个位数时买入，并等待了很久。最终你有了流动性，可以在不完全摧毁市场的情况下出售。”</p>
</div><p>While crypto bulls have complained about a draining of liquidity in markets lately, the ability to buy or sell the crypto has greatly increased versus a decade ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管加密货币的多头最近抱怨市场流动性减少，但与十年前相比，买入或卖出加密货币的能力大大增强。</p>
</div><p>Still, what could be concerning is that recent selling by whales has been coinciding with deteriorating sentiment and slower buying, which could add further pressure to bitcoin's price, according to analysts at blockchain-analytics firm CryptoQuant. The largest cryptocurrency fell on Friday to as low as $94,519, its lowest level since May 6, according to Dow Jones Market Data. It was down 9.14% so far this week, on track for its worst weekly performance since the week ending Feb. 28, when it fell 11.36%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，令人担忧的是，鲸鱼的近期抛售与情绪恶化和买入放缓相吻合，这可能会进一步给比特币的价格施加压力，区块链分析公司 CryptoQuant 的分析师表示。根据道琼斯市场数据，最大的加密货币周五跌至$94,519，为 5 月 6 日以来的最低水平。本周迄今下跌 9.14%，有望创下自 2 月 28 日以来的最差周表现，当时跌幅为 11.36%。</p>
</div><p>Now versus then</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在与那时的对比</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin selling by longer-term and larger holders of bitcoin isn't unique to the current cycle, and analysts at blockchain-data platform Glassnode wrote in a recent note that there have been signs that suggest recent selling has been driven by profit-taking rather than panic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>长期和大型比特币持有者的抛售并不是当前周期的独特现象，区块链数据平台 Glassnode 在最近的一份报告中写道，近期的抛售迹象表明，这些抛售是由获利了结驱动的，而非恐慌。</p>
</div><p>Looking specifically at whale wallets that held bitcoin for more than seven years and sold more than 1,000 bitcoin per hour, the sales appear to have occurred regularly and evenly over time, as shown in the chart below, which goes through Thursday, Nov. 13.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>具体来看，持有比特币超过七年的鲸鱼钱包每小时出售超过 1,000 个比特币，销售似乎是定期且均匀地发生的，如下图所示，该图截至 11 月 13 日星期四。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Spending&#34; or &#34;selling&#34; of bitcoin appears to be a &#34;persistent, staggered distribution,&#34; not a sudden coordinated &#34;dump&#34; by longstanding holders, according to blockchain-data platform Glassnode.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据区块链数据平台 Glassnode 的说法，比特币的&#34;支出&#34;或&#34;出售&#34;似乎是一种&#34;持续的、分阶段的分配&#34;，而不是长期持有者的突然协调&#34;抛售&#34;。</p>
</div><p>The $100,000 milestone</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$100,000 的里程碑</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, much of the selling by whales in the past few months appears tied to bitcoin's $100,000 milestone, a level many early adopters have long viewed as a psychological threshold for taking profits, said Cory Klippsten, a longtime bitcoin investor and chief executive at bitcoin-focused financial-services firm Swan Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，过去几个月鲸鱼的抛售似乎与比特币的$100,000 里程碑有关，这一水平长期以来被许多早期采用者视为获利的心理阈值，长期比特币投资者、专注于比特币的金融服务公司 Swan Bitcoin 的首席执行官 Cory Klippsten 表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;There are so many early holders I know who have talked about that number [$100,000] ever since I got into the space in 2017,&#34; Klippsten told MarketWatch. &#34;For some reason, that was the level at which people always said they'd sell some.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我认识的许多早期持有者自 2017 年我进入这个领域以来就一直在谈论这个数字 [$100,000]，&#34;Klippsten 对 MarketWatch 说道。&#34;出于某种原因，那是人们总是说他们会出售一些的水平。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Selling by long-term holders has intensified since December 2024, when bitcoin rose above $100,000 for the first time in history, according to Glassnode data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Glassnode 的数据，自 2024 年 12 月比特币首次突破$100,000 以来，长期持有者的抛售加剧。</p>
</div><p>What could be alarming</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能令人担忧的因素</p>
</div><p>Still, one factor that has changed is how the market has been absorbing this selling. When long-term holders sold their bitcoin late last year and earlier this year, other buyers stepped in to support the price, but that dynamic appears to have shifted, analysts at CryptoQuant wrote in a recent note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，有一个变化的因素是市场对这种抛售的吸收方式。当长期持有者在去年年底和今年年初出售比特币时，其他买家介入以支持价格，但这种动态似乎已经发生了变化，CryptoQuant 的分析师在最近的一份报告中写道。</p>
</div><p>One sign of softer demand can be seen in flows into investment products. Exchange-traded funds investing in bitcoin have seen an outflow of $311.3 million this week as of Thursday, putting them on pace for a fifth consecutive week of outflows, the longest stretch since the five weeks ending March 14, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需求减弱的一个迹象可以在投资产品的流入中看到。截至周四，投资比特币的交易所交易基金（ETF）本周流出$311.3 百万，预计将连续第五周出现流出，这是自 3 月 14 日结束的五周以来最长的流出期，根据道琼斯市场数据。</p>
</div><p>Over the past five weeks, a total of $2.6 billion has flowed out of bitcoin ETFs, the largest five-week outflow since the five weeks ending March 28, when outflows reached $3.3 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去五周中，共有$26 亿流出比特币 ETF，这是自 3 月 28 日结束的五周以来最大的流出，届时流出达到$33 亿。</p>
</div><p>Recent price action also has brought the $100,000 threshold back into focus. Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000 last week before recovering, then dipped under that level again on Thursday. It traded below that threshold as of Friday afternoon, which some technical analysts said likely encouraged additional profit-taking as the market failed to reclaim that key level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近期的价格走势也使$100,000 的门槛重新引起关注。上周，比特币短暂跌破$100,000 后反弹，然后在周四再次跌破该水平。截至周五下午，它交易于该阈值以下，一些技术分析师表示，这可能促使更多的获利了结，因为市场未能重新夺回这一关键水平。</p>
</div><p>Adding to the pressure, the broader macroeconomic environment has not been supportive of risk assets. This has contributed to the liquidation of some long positions, noted Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, which operates a forex and crypto exchange. &#34;We believe the market came into [the fourth quarter] with outsized expectations, driven by seasonal trend analysis that historically shows exceptional performance during this period,&#34; Kruger wrote to MarketWatch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，广泛的宏观经济环境对风险资产并不支持。这导致一些长期头寸的清算，LMAX 集团的市场策略师 Joel Kruger 指出，该集团运营着外汇和加密货币交易所。他对 MarketWatch 表示：“我们认为市场在进入第四季度时抱有过高的预期，这些预期是由季节性趋势分析驱动的，历史上在这一时期表现出色。”</p>
</div><p>However, as investors trim their expectations for a December interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve and as soft labor-market data raises concerns about the economy, risk assets broadly, including bitcoin, have come under renewed pressure, Kruger noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，随着投资者削减对美联储 12 月降息的预期，以及疲软的劳动力市场数据引发对经济的担忧，风险资产普遍，包括比特币，面临新的压力，Kruger 指出。</p>
</div><p>U.S. stocks ended the week mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA up 0.3%. The S&amp;P 500 SPX edged up 0.1% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite COMP fell 0.5% during the stretch, logging back-to-back weekly losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国股市本周收盘涨跌互现，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 0.3%。标准普尔 500 指数本周上涨 0.1%，而纳斯达克综合指数在此期间下跌 0.5%，连续两周录得亏损。</p>
</div><p>Saylor is still buying</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Saylor 仍在买入</p>
</div><p>Despite all this, one of the largest known bitcoin whales has continued to buy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，已知的最大比特币鲸鱼之一仍在继续买入。</p>
</div><p>Michael Saylor, chair of Strategy Inc. (MSTR), a software company now viewed largely as a leveraged bitcoin play, said on CNBC on Friday that the company has been &#34;accelerating&#34; its bitcoin buying and will be reporting its purchases on Monday morning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Strategy Inc.（MSTR）的董事长迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）在周五的 CNBC 上表示，该软件公司现在被视为一个杠杆比特币投资，正在 “加速” 其比特币购买，并将在周一早上报告其购买情况。</p>
</div><p>Strategy held over 640,000 bitcoin as of Friday, representing more than 3% of the crypto's current supply of 19.9 million. Representatives at Strategy did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至周五，Strategy 持有超过 640,000 个比特币，代表着当前比特币供应量 1,990 万的 3% 以上。Strategy 的代表没有立即回复寻求评论的电子邮件。</p>
</div><p>Ken Jimenez and Michael DeStefano contributed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>肯·希门尼斯（Ken Jimenez）和迈克尔·德斯特法诺（Michael DeStefano）做出了贡献。</p>
</div><p>-Frances Yue</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-弗朗西斯·岳（Frances Yue）</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯社</p>
</div><p>11-14-25 1653ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11-14-25 1653ET</p>
</div>

随着比特币价格进一步跌破 10 万美元，加密货币 “鲸鱼” 正在出售比特币。投资者是否应该感到担忧？