<h2><strong>关键要点</strong></h2>
<h3><em>什么能打破比特币周期？</em></h3>
<p>分析师认为，来自 ETF 和国债买家的新动态使比特币市场成熟，脱离了其典型的周期结构。</p>
<h3><em>如果周期被打破，接下来会发生什么？</em></h3>
<p>那么，比特币在 2026 年的动能可能取决于美国商业周期和流动性增长。</p>
<hr/>
<p>比特币 [BTC] 是如何在没有触发历史警告信号的情况下达到顶峰并进入熊市的？</p>
<p>这是大多数市场观察者在加密推特（CT）上苦苦思索的问题，因为比特币在经历了一段时间的调整后跌破了关键的牛市支撑（365 天日均线）。</p>
<p>但设定的警告信号依赖于 4 年的比特币周期。</p>
<p>如果周期被打破或从历史模式中改变呢？实际上，Bitwise 首席执行官 Hunter Horsley 和 FundStrat 首席投资官 Tom Lee 现在确信，遵循过去趋势的参与者将打破这个周期。</p>
<p>Horsley 指出，人们在 2025 年出售以避免预期中的 2026 年抛售，基于过去的模式。</p>
<p>不幸的是，这可能会使 2025 年变成亏损的一年，而这通常是一个历史上表现良好的减半后年份，从而有效地打破周期，并可能使 2026 年 “开放” 给一个新的局面。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“二阶效应：2025 年的卖家导致 2025 年成为下行年，从而打破 4 年周期。三阶效应：2026 年是开放季节。4 年周期被打破。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/itcoin-cycle-returns.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/itcoin-cycle-returns.jpg"/></p>
<p>来源：Bitwise</p>
<p>Lee 呼应了这一观点，并补充道，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“有力的观点，我同意比特币和以太坊的因素正在远离 4 年周期。”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>什么真正驱动比特币周期？</h2>
<p>对于不熟悉的人来说，整个周期理论围绕比特币的减半事件展开，该事件大约每四年发生一次。</p>
<p>从周期低点测量，2022 阶段（黑线）带来了 +600% 的收益，远低于其他周期。但它与第二（蓝色）和第三（绿色）周期的相关性相对较高。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_price-performance-since-cycle-low.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_price-performance-since-cycle-low.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Glassnode</p>
<p>随着 ETF 和国债等新参与者进入市场，成熟的行业预计将经历收益递减法则。</p>
<p>随着变化，一些人声称，像 MVRV Z-Score 这样的典型周期指标将不再有效地识别顶部。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_btc-mvrv-z-score-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_btc-mvrv-z-score-1.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Glassnode</p>
<p>在过去的周期中，MVRV Z-Score 的激增标志着市场顶部。如果确实$126k 是市场峰值，这样的走势尚未被触发，将使当前周期独特。</p>
<p>另一位用户 Satoshi Flipper 呼应了 Lee 和 Horsley 的观点，但补充说，这些变化是由于美国商业周期的延长。</p>
<p>换句话说，比特币周期与流动性增长的关系比之前认为的减半季节更为紧密。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/BTC-liquidity-cycle.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/BTC-liquidity-cycle.jpg"/></p>
<p>来源：X</p>
<p>也许年末的结果和 2026 年的表现将证明关于比特币的哪种理论是正确的，以及 4 年周期是否真的已经结束。</p>

BMNR

<p>Bitwise 首席执行官 Hunter Horsley 和 FundStrat 首席投资官 Tom Lee 表示，比特币传统的四年周期可能会因 ETF 和国债买家的新动态而被打破。他们预测 2025 年可能是一个下行年，从而打破周期，并为 2026 年的新趋势留出空间。以比特币减半事件为中心的周期理论可能会转向流动性增长，这对过去的指标如 MVRV Z-Score 形成挑战</p>

<h2><strong>Key Takeaways</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>关键要点</strong></h2>
</div><h3><em>What can break the BTC cycle?</em></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><em>什么能打破比特币周期？</em></h3>
</div><p>New dynamics from ETFs and treasury buyers that analysts believe have matured the BTC market away from its typical cycle structure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师认为，来自 ETF 和国债买家的新动态使比特币市场成熟，脱离了其典型的周期结构。</p>
</div><h3><em>What’s next if the cycle is broken?</em></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><em>如果周期被打破，接下来会发生什么？</em></h3>
</div><p>Then, BTC’s momentum in 2026 could depend on the U.S. business cycle and liquidity growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，比特币在 2026 年的动能可能取决于美国商业周期和流动性增长。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p>How did Bitcoin [BTC] top out and enter a bear phase without triggering historical warning signals?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币 [BTC] 是如何在没有触发历史警告信号的情况下达到顶峰并进入熊市的？</p>
</div><p>That’s the question most market watchers are struggling with across Crypto Twitter (CT) after BTC fell below key bull market support (the 365-day Daily Moving Average) amid an extended correction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是大多数市场观察者在加密推特（CT）上苦苦思索的问题，因为比特币在经历了一段时间的调整后跌破了关键的牛市支撑（365 天日均线）。</p>
</div><p>But the set warning signals relied on the 4-year BTC cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但设定的警告信号依赖于 4 年的比特币周期。</p>
</div><p>What if the cycle is broken or changing from historical patterns? In fact, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley and FundStrat CIO Tom Lee are now convinced that players following the past trends will break the cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果周期被打破或从历史模式中改变呢？实际上，Bitwise 首席执行官 Hunter Horsley 和 FundStrat 首席投资官 Tom Lee 现在确信，遵循过去趋势的参与者将打破这个周期。</p>
</div><p>Horsley noted that people sold in 2025 to avoid the expected 2026 dump, based on past patterns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Horsley 指出，人们在 2025 年出售以避免预期中的 2026 年抛售，基于过去的模式。</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately, this could drag 2025 into the red, a historically green post-halving year, effectively breaking the cycle and potentially leaving 2026 “open” for a new regime.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，这可能会使 2025 年变成亏损的一年，而这通常是一个历史上表现良好的减半后年份，从而有效地打破周期，并可能使 2026 年 “开放” 给一个新的局面。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Second-order effect: the 2025 sellers cause 2025 to be a down year, thus breaking the 4-year cycles. Third-order effect: 2026 is open season. 4-year cycles broken.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“二阶效应：2025 年的卖家导致 2025 年成为下行年，从而打破 4 年周期。三阶效应：2026 年是开放季节。4 年周期被打破。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/itcoin-cycle-returns.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/itcoin-cycle-returns.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: Bitwise</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Bitwise</p>
</div><p>Lee echoed the outlook and added,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lee 呼应了这一观点，并补充道，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Cogent points, I agree that factors shifting away from 4-year cycle for BTC, ETH.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“有力的观点，我同意比特币和以太坊的因素正在远离 4 年周期。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>What’s really driving BTC cycles?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>什么真正驱动比特币周期？</h2>
</div><p>For the unfamiliar, the entire cycle theory has been centered on BTC’s halving event, which occurs about every four years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于不熟悉的人来说，整个周期理论围绕比特币的减半事件展开，该事件大约每四年发生一次。</p>
</div><p>Measured from the cycle low, the 2022 phase (black line) has yielded a +600% gain, way less than other cycles.But it had a relatively close correlation, especially to the second (blue) and third (green) cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从周期低点测量，2022 阶段（黑线）带来了 +600% 的收益，远低于其他周期。但它与第二（蓝色）和第三（绿色）周期的相关性相对较高。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_price-performance-since-cycle-low.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_price-performance-since-cycle-low.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>With new players, such as ETFs and treasuries, entering the market, the maturing sector was expected to experience the law of diminishing returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 ETF 和国债等新参与者进入市场，成熟的行业预计将经历收益递减法则。</p>
</div><p>And with the changes, some have claimed that typical cycle indicators like MVRV Z-Score wouldn’t effectively pick out tops anymore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着变化，一些人声称，像 MVRV Z-Score 这样的典型周期指标将不再有效地识别顶部。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_btc-mvrv-z-score-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_btc-mvrv-z-score-1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>In the past cycles, MVRV Z-Score spikes marked market tops. Such a move hasn’t been triggered and would make the current cycle unique if indeed $126k was the market peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的周期中，MVRV Z-Score 的激增标志着市场顶部。如果确实$126k 是市场峰值，这样的走势尚未被触发，将使当前周期独特。</p>
</div><p>Another user, Satoshi Flipper, echoed Lee and Horsley’s outlook, but added that the changes are due to extended U.S. business cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一位用户 Satoshi Flipper 呼应了 Lee 和 Horsley 的观点，但补充说，这些变化是由于美国商业周期的延长。</p>
</div><p>Put differently, the BTC cycle is tied closely to liquidity growth than halving seasons, as previously believed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，比特币周期与流动性增长的关系比之前认为的减半季节更为紧密。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/BTC-liquidity-cycle.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/BTC-liquidity-cycle.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X</p>
</div><p>Perhaps the end-of-year results and the 2026 performance will prove which theory is correct about BTC and whether the 4-year cycle is indeed dead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也许年末的结果和 2026 年的表现将证明关于比特币的哪种理论是正确的，以及 4 年周期是否真的已经结束。</p>
</div>

Bitwise 首席执行官称，比特币的四周期将被打破——‘2026 年将是开放季’