<p><strong>文章介绍</strong></p>
<p>数字黄金的光辉已然暗淡，比特币首次跌破 90,000 美元，经历了宏观经济利率政策和内部市场结构的双重考验。</p>
<p>11 月 18 日，比特币价格跌破关键心理关口 90,000 美元，最低触及 89,288.7 美元，标志着自今年 4 月以来首次突破该水平。</p>
<p>这一下跌意味着比特币自 10 月初创下的 126,199 美元历史高点以来，已下跌近 30%，抹去了今年所有的涨幅。这一下降不仅仅是简单的价格修正；它动摇了整个加密货币市场的根基。根据市场数据，全球加密货币市场市值从 10 月初的 4.379 万亿美元峰值缩水了 25%，降至约 3.282 万亿美元，损失超过 1 万亿美元。伴随价格下跌的是大规模的清算。Coinglass 数据显示，在过去 24 小时内，加密货币市场上超过 175,000 名投资者经历了清算，总清算金额达到 9.35 亿美元。其中，多头头寸清算金额为 6.5 亿美元，远超 2.8 亿美元的空头头寸，表明市场的看涨动能接近崩溃。这轮比特币的下跌是宏观经济压力、政策不确定性和内部市场结构问题共同作用的结果。在宏观层面，美联储货币政策前景的急剧转变是主要驱动力。随着市场对美联储 12 月降息的预期降至 50% 以下，投资者开始系统性地撤出高风险资产头寸。降息预期的减弱直接改变了资金成本的预期。在跌破 100,000 美元后，加密市场的持续下滑本质上是流动性溢价减少的必然结果。市场的内部结构也存在问题。在达到新高后，比特币缺乏持续的新资本流入，而高度杠杆的多头头寸在整合期间集中清算，加剧了短期卖压。同时，机构资金近期净流入出现下降，一些中小型矿工提前套现以维持现金流。地缘政治因素也发挥了作用；自 10 月 11 日起，由于美国总统特朗普关于关税的言论，全球风险资产普遍承压。随后，创纪录的美国政府停摆，加上财政和货币政策前景的不确定性加剧，进一步加重了市场对流动性环境的担忧。市场对比特币四年周期的关注显著增加。目前的时间窗口大约是上次减半后 400 到 600 天，这一时期历史上与比特币的周期性价格峰值相吻合。这种周期性行为源于比特币的固有特性：减半事件减少了新区块链数据的供应，而需求随着时间的推移逐渐增加，传统上导致减半后约 12-18 个月的价格峰值。从市场心理学的角度来看，在比特币达到新的历史高点后，长期持有者往往倾向于获利了结，向市场释放大量供应。价格下跌可能是获利了结、流动性收缩和宏观经济压力共同作用的结果。值得注意的是，这轮抛售恰逢全球风险资产的修正。美国科技行业的近期修正和谨慎的市场情绪进一步放大了比特币的短期波动。这表明，加密货币已更深地融入传统金融体系，也更容易受到其波动的影响。市场对比特币未来走势的看法明显分歧。BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 警告称，比特币从 125,000 美元跌至 90,000 美元区间，而美国股市仍处于历史高位，表明信用事件正在酝酿。Hayes 进一步指出，自 7 月以来，美元流动性指数显著减弱，如果市场进一步恶化，美联储、财政部或其他机构可能被迫加速印钞以稳定市场。在这种情况下，比特币可能会回落至 80,000 至 85,000 美元区间。悲观观点认为，持续跌破 100,000 美元可能会引发更剧烈的抛售。市场分析师 Damian Chmiel 表示，下一个目标将是 4 月接近 74,000 美元的低点，暗示从当前水平可能有约 30% 的下行空间。尽管近期市场波动，一些华尔街机构仍然看涨。Fundstrat 的 Tom Lee 预测，比特币到 2025 年底可能飙升至 150,000 至 200,000 美元。他指出，就在几周前，市场经历了一次历史性的清算，规模超过 FTX 交易所崩溃，但这并没有动摇他对长期的信心。11 月 19 日上午，比特币价格已反弹至 92,000 美元区间。</p>

GBTC

<p>比特币价格跌破 90,000 美元，较 10 月份的高点下跌了 30%，导致加密货币市场市值损失 1 万亿美元。此次下跌受到宏观经济压力、政策不确定性和内部市场问题的驱动。大规模的清算发生，做多头寸受到严重影响。市场观点分歧，一些人预测进一步下跌，而另一些人对未来增长持乐观态度</p>

<p><strong>Article Introduction</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>文章介绍</strong></p>
</div><p>The luster of digital gold has dimmed, with Bitcoin falling below $90,000 for the first time in seven months, undergoing a dual test of macroeconomic interest rate policies and internal market structure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数字黄金的光辉已然暗淡，比特币首次跌破 90,000 美元，经历了宏观经济利率政策和内部市场结构的双重考验。</p>
</div><p>On November 18, the price of Bitcoin fell below the key psychological level of $90,000, hitting a low of $89,288.7, marking the first time this level has been breached since April of this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11 月 18 日，比特币价格跌破关键心理关口 90,000 美元，最低触及 89,288.7 美元，标志着自今年 4 月以来首次突破该水平。</p>
</div><p>This drop means Bitcoin has fallen nearly 30% from its all-time high of $126,199 in early October, wiping out all of its gains this year. This decline is not merely a simple price correction; it has shaken the very foundations of the entire cryptocurrency market. According to market data, the global cryptocurrency market capitalization has shrunk by 25% from its peak of $4.379 trillion in early October to approximately $3.282 trillion, a loss of over $1 trillion in value. Accompanying the price decline has been massive liquidations. Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, over 175,000 investors in the cryptocurrency market have experienced liquidations, with a total liquidation amount of $935 million. Of these, long positions were liquidated for $650 million, far exceeding the $280 million in short positions, indicating that the market's bullish momentum is nearing collapse. This round of Bitcoin decline is the result of a combination of macroeconomic pressures, policy uncertainty, and internal market structural problems. At the macro level, the sharp shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook is the main driving force. As the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December fell below 50%, investors began systematically withdrawing from high-risk asset positions. The weakening expectation of interest rate cuts directly altered expectations of funding costs. The continued decline in the crypto market after falling below $100,000 is essentially an inevitable result of the diminishing liquidity premium. The market's internal structure also presents problems. After reaching new highs, Bitcoin lacked sustained new capital inflows, and highly leveraged long positions were concentratedly liquidated during the consolidation, exacerbating short-term selling pressure. Simultaneously, institutional funds have seen a recent decline in net inflows, with some small and medium-sized miners cashing out early to maintain cash flow. Geopolitical factors also played a role; starting October 11th, global risk assets generally came under pressure due to US President Trump's statements on tariffs. Subsequently, the record-breaking US government shutdown, coupled with escalating uncertainty surrounding fiscal and monetary policy prospects, further exacerbated market concerns about the liquidity environment. Market attention to Bitcoin's four-year cycle is significantly increasing. The current time window is approximately 400 to 600 days after the last halving, a period historically coinciding with Bitcoin's cyclical price peaks. This cyclical behavior stems from Bitcoin's inherent characteristics: halving events reduce the supply of new blockchain data, while demand gradually increases over time, traditionally leading to a price peak approximately 12-18 months after the halving. From a market psychology perspective, after Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, long-term holders tended to take profits, releasing a large supply into the market. The price decline is likely the result of a combination of profit-taking, shrinking liquidity, and macroeconomic pressures. It's worth noting that this round of selling coincided with a global correction in risk assets. The recent correction in the US technology sector and cautious market sentiment further amplified Bitcoin's short-term volatility. This indicates that cryptocurrencies have become more deeply integrated into the traditional financial system, and are also more susceptible to its volatility. Market opinions on Bitcoin's future trajectory are clearly divided. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warned that Bitcoin's drop from $125,000 to the $90,000 range while US stocks remain at historical highs indicates a credit event is brewing. Hayes further pointed out that the dollar liquidity index has weakened significantly since July, and if the market deteriorates further, the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, or other institutions may be forced to accelerate money printing to stabilize the market. In this scenario, Bitcoin could potentially fall back to the $80,000 to $85,000 range. Pessimistic views suggest that a sustained drop below $100,000 could trigger a more dramatic sell-off. Market analyst Damian Chmiel stated that the next target would be the low of nearly $74,000 in April, implying a potential downside of approximately 30% from current levels. Despite recent market volatility, some Wall Street institutions remain bullish. Fundstrat's Tom Lee predicts that Bitcoin could surge to $150,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025. He points out that just weeks ago, the market experienced a historic liquidation larger than the FTX exchange crash, but this has not shaken his long-term confidence. On the morning of November 19th, the price of Bitcoin had rebounded to the $92,000 range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一下跌意味着比特币自 10 月初创下的 126,199 美元历史高点以来，已下跌近 30%，抹去了今年所有的涨幅。这一下降不仅仅是简单的价格修正；它动摇了整个加密货币市场的根基。根据市场数据，全球加密货币市场市值从 10 月初的 4.379 万亿美元峰值缩水了 25%，降至约 3.282 万亿美元，损失超过 1 万亿美元。伴随价格下跌的是大规模的清算。Coinglass 数据显示，在过去 24 小时内，加密货币市场上超过 175,000 名投资者经历了清算，总清算金额达到 9.35 亿美元。其中，多头头寸清算金额为 6.5 亿美元，远超 2.8 亿美元的空头头寸，表明市场的看涨动能接近崩溃。这轮比特币的下跌是宏观经济压力、政策不确定性和内部市场结构问题共同作用的结果。在宏观层面，美联储货币政策前景的急剧转变是主要驱动力。随着市场对美联储 12 月降息的预期降至 50% 以下，投资者开始系统性地撤出高风险资产头寸。降息预期的减弱直接改变了资金成本的预期。在跌破 100,000 美元后，加密市场的持续下滑本质上是流动性溢价减少的必然结果。市场的内部结构也存在问题。在达到新高后，比特币缺乏持续的新资本流入，而高度杠杆的多头头寸在整合期间集中清算，加剧了短期卖压。同时，机构资金近期净流入出现下降，一些中小型矿工提前套现以维持现金流。地缘政治因素也发挥了作用；自 10 月 11 日起，由于美国总统特朗普关于关税的言论，全球风险资产普遍承压。随后，创纪录的美国政府停摆，加上财政和货币政策前景的不确定性加剧，进一步加重了市场对流动性环境的担忧。市场对比特币四年周期的关注显著增加。目前的时间窗口大约是上次减半后 400 到 600 天，这一时期历史上与比特币的周期性价格峰值相吻合。这种周期性行为源于比特币的固有特性：减半事件减少了新区块链数据的供应，而需求随着时间的推移逐渐增加，传统上导致减半后约 12-18 个月的价格峰值。从市场心理学的角度来看，在比特币达到新的历史高点后，长期持有者往往倾向于获利了结，向市场释放大量供应。价格下跌可能是获利了结、流动性收缩和宏观经济压力共同作用的结果。值得注意的是，这轮抛售恰逢全球风险资产的修正。美国科技行业的近期修正和谨慎的市场情绪进一步放大了比特币的短期波动。这表明，加密货币已更深地融入传统金融体系，也更容易受到其波动的影响。市场对比特币未来走势的看法明显分歧。BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 警告称，比特币从 125,000 美元跌至 90,000 美元区间，而美国股市仍处于历史高位，表明信用事件正在酝酿。Hayes 进一步指出，自 7 月以来，美元流动性指数显著减弱，如果市场进一步恶化，美联储、财政部或其他机构可能被迫加速印钞以稳定市场。在这种情况下，比特币可能会回落至 80,000 至 85,000 美元区间。悲观观点认为，持续跌破 100,000 美元可能会引发更剧烈的抛售。市场分析师 Damian Chmiel 表示，下一个目标将是 4 月接近 74,000 美元的低点，暗示从当前水平可能有约 30% 的下行空间。尽管近期市场波动，一些华尔街机构仍然看涨。Fundstrat 的 Tom Lee 预测，比特币到 2025 年底可能飙升至 150,000 至 200,000 美元。他指出，就在几周前，市场经历了一次历史性的清算，规模超过 FTX 交易所崩溃，但这并没有动摇他对长期的信心。11 月 19 日上午，比特币价格已反弹至 92,000 美元区间。</p>
</div>

比特币价格跌破 90,000 美元，加密货币市场市值蒸发超过一万亿美元