<div id="readability-page-1">The companies that outperform expectations stand to win Black Friday weekend, while those that fall short could see price declines. getty Adobe Digital Insights has predicted online holiday sales will exceed $250 billion in 2025, fueled by 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail websites. That would translate to a sales increase of 5.3% from last year’s total holiday spend.  Can your investment portfolio benefit from the increase? Possibly. While stock prices tend to adjust long before Black Friday weekend, the movements are based on investor expectations. The companies that outperform expectations stand to win, while those that fall short could see price declines.  Fei Chen, CEO and founder of fintech startup Intellectia.AI, predicts this year’s Black Friday winners will include infrastructure as well as retailers. “The real opportunity lies in identifying companies with structural advantages beyond a single shopping weekend,” Chen said, “particularly those integrating AI-powered commerce and omni-channel strategies that will define retail for years to come.”  12 Ways To Invest Smarter In 2026 Retailers directly capture the revenue from Black Friday shopping activity. Known retail brands that sell online and in-store—like Walmart and Target—are well-positioned to capitalize on the holiday shopping surge. However, low retail margins mean a lesser impact on the bottom line.  MORE FOR YOU Higher-margin businesses can drive bigger profit changes from the Black Friday surge. As an example, the operating margin in Amazon’s North America segment, which is primarily retail sales, was 8% in last year’s fourth quarter. The operating margin in Amazon’s AWS business, which provides cloud computing and e-commerce infrastructure, was 36.9%. Much smaller revenue gains in AWS can drive the same profits as larger gains in North American retail sales.  Cloud providers, payment processors and lenders are high-margin businesses that should benefit from the Black Friday sales surge.  Long-Term Investing In A Weak Labor Market Chen identified five stocks that are ready to outperform over the Black Friday weekend. They are:  A closer look at each company follows, with metrics sourced from company reports and stockanalysis.com.  Amazon generates revenue from e-commerce sales, cloud computing, advertising and subscription payments. The diversified business model allows Amazon to benefit in multiple ways from holiday shopping.  “Amazon captures value whether consumers shop on its platform or on the thousands of e-commerce sites powered by AWS infrastructure,” said Chen. “It’s the only company positioned to win regardless of where holiday dollars are spent,” he explained.  Shopify provides subscription-based website hosting to millions of e-commerce retailers. The company also earns payment processing fees from e-commerce transactions.  Chen highlighted Shopify’s strong third-quarter results, with 67% growth in payment volume. Shopify also recently launched an integration that allows its merchants to sell their products within ChatGPT conversations.  Walmart operates the Walmart and Sam’s Club retail chains and their respective e-commerce websites. The retailer also sells advertising around the world. Walmart’s global advertising business grew 53% in the third quarter. Subscription revenues for Walmart+, a competitor to Amazon Prime, round out the diversified model.  Walmart, like Amazon, can benefit from Black Friday sales across multiple business, from lower-margin retail sales to higher-margin advertising. The company is also executing well, earning double-digit gains in global e-commerce sales, membership income and advertising in the third quarter.  PayPal processes online payments, offers short-term “buy now pay later” installment loans, issues debit and credit cards and provides digital wallets that store cash and cryptocurrency.  PayPal captures transaction fees across the internet, because it integrates with major e-commerce platforms, including Shopify, WooCommerce, BigCommerce, and Wix. According to Digitalcommerce360, more than 82% of the largest retailers accept PayPal payments. To the extent more holiday shoppers use PayPal, the company will benefit.  Target operates target.com and a chain of retail stores in the U.S. The product selection includes men’s and women’s fashion, beauty, personal care, home décor, party supplies, furniture, groceries and more.  Chen described Target as “the contrarian pick.” The company just announced a $1 billion spending effort to spark growth through store openings, remodels, improved customer experiences and better technology. Chen believes Target will benefit now from its brand loyalty and “same-day delivery capabilities.” And, the planned investments could trigger “significant upside that the market isn’t pricing in,” he explained.  Expectations for Black Friday profits are already baked into stock prices. To add value to your portfolio at this stage, opt for companies that can outperform expectations—not only for Black Friday weekend, but for the rest of the fourth quarter.  6 Best Dividend Stocks To Buy In November For High Yield And Growth 5 Best Stocks To Buy Now For November 2025 5 Best Dividend Stocks To Buy Now In October 2025</div>

沃尔玛

SHOP

塔吉特

<p>Fei Chen 预测，亚马逊、Shopify、沃尔玛、PayPal 和塔吉特将在黑色星期五期间超出预期，原因在于它们多元化的商业模式和战略优势。具有结构性优势和人工智能驱动的商业模式的公司，预计将在购物周末之后继续受益。投资者应关注高利润业务以及那些整合全渠道战略的公司，以实现长期收益</p>

Why Amazon, Shopify And 3 Other Stocks Are Poised To Win Black Friday

- 预计 2025 年在线假日销售将超过 2500 亿美元，增长 5.3%。  
- 超出预期的公司将受益于黑色星期五，低利润零售商影响有限。  
- 亚马逊、沃尔玛和 PayPal 等公司被看好，因其多元化业务模式。  

为什么亚马逊、Shopify 和另外三只股票有望在黑色星期五中胜出