<p>作者：Isabel Wang</p>
<p>策略师表示，周五的市场反弹 “并不是建立在任何坚实基础上，而是非常短暂的东西”。</p>
<p>Interactive Brokers 的首席策略师 Steve Sosnick 表示，近期股票的反弹并没有建立在任何坚实的基础上。</p>
<p>本周华尔街的波动提醒人们，股市的信心是多么脆弱：每次反弹都被抛售，每次下跌都加剧，投资者仍然对市场是否已经触底持怀疑态度。</p>
<p>然后周五来了——几乎是应声而至，买家终于入场，这引发了一个问题：股票的突然反弹是否意味着真正的抄底潮开始，还是仅仅是脆弱股市中的又一次周末买入狂潮。</p>
<p>“每次下跌都可能是买入机会，但我看到的情况已经从抄底转变为追涨，” Interactive Brokers 的首席策略师 Steve Sosnick 表示。“我们对追逐动能的迷恋使得市场出现了 ‘空气口袋’ 的机会，因为这些反弹并不是建立在任何坚实基础上，而是非常短暂的东西，这也意味着它们可能会迅速反转。”</p>
<p>周五，美国股市经历了一次极其动荡的旅程。道琼斯工业平均指数（DJIA）和标准普尔 500 指数（SPX）在本周早些时候经历了四天的下跌，随后英伟达公司（NVDA）强劲的财报在周四早晨引发了股市的强劲反弹。但这种激增很快转变为自四月以来标准普尔 500 指数最大的盘中抛售，因为人们担心美联储在十二月将维持利率不变，随后股票在周五再次反弹。</p>
<p>即使在周五的波动中，道琼斯和标准普尔 500 指数仍然创下自 10 月 10 日以来的最差周表现，各自下跌近 2%。根据道琼斯市场数据，纳斯达克综合指数（COMP）本周下跌超过 2.7%。</p>
<p>Sosnick 告诉 MarketWatch，本周股市的剧烈波动凸显了投资者信心的脆弱，周五的反弹似乎也很短暂，因为市场的基本面几乎没有变化。这可能预示着未来几天的麻烦。</p>
<p>“当你开始追涨时，这可能会让你在市场上处于非常危险的境地，” 他说。“人们只有在真正认为股票因基本面或技术原因 ‘打折’ 时才会买入下跌，但现在他们只是因为股票变得更贵而买入，他们认为可以将其转手给愿意支付更高价格的人。”</p>
<p>WEBs Investments 的首席执行官 Ben Fulton 表示，周五的股票反弹表明交易者 “仍然像初升的太阳一样充满韧性”，因为他们出现在 “股市的早期黑色星期五促销” 中。然而，他告诉 MarketWatch，问题在于，如果市场反弹快于预期，早期获利了结可能会使市场复苏短暂。</p>
<p>见：加密货币、美元、股票和信贷正在告诉美联储需要降息，流行策略师表示。</p>
<p>本周的市场行动还看到投资者转向股市的一些传统防御性领域，因为风险资产如大型科技股和比特币（BTCUSD）受到压力。</p>
<p>标准普尔 500 指数的消费品（XX:SP500.30）和医疗保健（XX:SP500.35）板块是大型基准指数中为数不多的收盘上涨的领域之一。在这个月，这两个板块分别上涨了 2.2% 和 7.1%，而同期标准普尔 500 指数下跌了 3.5%，根据 FactSet 数据。</p>
<p>消费品和医疗保健在市场波动加剧期间通常被视为防御性投资。根据 FactSet 的数据，黄金价格（GC00）虽然从高峰回落，但在 11 月迄今仍上涨了 2.4%。</p>
<p>Plante Moran Financial Advisors 的首席投资官 Jim Baird 表示，行业轮动更多是由估值驱动，而不是经典的 “避险交易”——资金从被高估的大型科技股流出，流入市场中更便宜的部分，而不是对美国经济压力的反应。</p>
<p>“由于这些大型科技股的估值看起来相当高，投资者开始寻找其他方式来改善他们的投资组合多样化，并在一定程度上减少与人工智能故事的关联，以更具多样化的方式进行布局，” 他说。</p>
<p>“在不确定性时期，适当减持一些盈利，特别是可以帮助你晚上睡得更好，” Baird 补充道。</p>
<p>-Isabel Wang</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>11-22-25 1202ET</p>

塔吉特

开市客

克罗格

<p>华尔街经历了一个波动的星期，突显出投资者信心的脆弱。尽管周五有所反弹，但像 Steve Sosnick 这样的策略师警告称，这种反弹并不基于坚实的基本面，可能是短暂的。道琼斯指数和标准普尔 500 指数创下自 10 月 10 日以来的最差周表现，损失显著。向消费品和医疗保健行业的板块轮动表明，市场正在从被高估的科技股转移。分析师警告称，当前市场动态可能导致短暂的复苏，这种复苏是由动量驱动而非基本面</p>

<p>By Isabel Wang</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Isabel Wang</p>
</div><p>Friday's market rebound was 'not built on anything solid but something very ephemeral,' says strategist</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>策略师表示，周五的市场反弹 “并不是建立在任何坚实基础上，而是非常短暂的东西”。</p>
</div><p>Recent rallies in stocks haven't been built on anything solid, says Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Interactive Brokers 的首席策略师 Steve Sosnick 表示，近期股票的反弹并没有建立在任何坚实的基础上。</p>
</div><p>Volatility on Wall Street this week was a reminder of just how frail conviction around the stock market has been: Every bounce was sold, every selloff spiraled and investors still were skeptical if it had bottomed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周华尔街的波动提醒人们，股市的信心是多么脆弱：每次反弹都被抛售，每次下跌都加剧，投资者仍然对市场是否已经触底持怀疑态度。</p>
</div><p>Then came Friday - almost on cue, buyers finally stepped in, raising the question of whether the sudden rebound in stocks was the start of an actual bargain-hunting spree or just another end-of-week buying blitz in an otherwise fragile stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后周五来了——几乎是应声而至，买家终于入场，这引发了一个问题：股票的突然反弹是否意味着真正的抄底潮开始，还是仅仅是脆弱股市中的又一次周末买入狂潮。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Every dip could be a buying opportunity, but what I'm seeing this week has morphed from dip buying to rally chasing,&#34; said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. &#34;We've become so enamored with chasing the momentum that I think it creates the opportunity for 'air pockets,' because those rallies are not built on anything solid but something very ephemeral, and that also means that they can reverse themselves very quickly.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“每次下跌都可能是买入机会，但我看到的情况已经从抄底转变为追涨，” Interactive Brokers 的首席策略师 Steve Sosnick 表示。“我们对追逐动能的迷恋使得市场出现了 ‘空气口袋’ 的机会，因为这些反弹并不是建立在任何坚实基础上，而是非常短暂的东西，这也意味着它们可能会迅速反转。”</p>
</div><p>U.S. stocks on Friday came off an extremely turbulent ride on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA and the S&amp;P 500 SPX logged a four-day losing streak earlier this week before Nvidia Corp.'s (NVDA) robust earnings report sparked a strong rally in the stock market on Thursday morning. But that surge quickly flipped into the biggest intraday selloff for the S&amp;P 500 since April as worries grew that the Federal reserve would stand pat in December on interest rates, before stocks reversed again on Friday with a sharp rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五，美国股市经历了一次极其动荡的旅程。道琼斯工业平均指数（DJIA）和标准普尔 500 指数（SPX）在本周早些时候经历了四天的下跌，随后英伟达公司（NVDA）强劲的财报在周四早晨引发了股市的强劲反弹。但这种激增很快转变为自四月以来标准普尔 500 指数最大的盘中抛售，因为人们担心美联储在十二月将维持利率不变，随后股票在周五再次反弹。</p>
</div><p>Even with Friday's moves, the Dow and the S&amp;P 500 still logged their worst week since Oct. 10, with each losing nearly 2%. The Nasdaq Composite COMP tumbled over 2.7% this week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在周五的波动中，道琼斯和标准普尔 500 指数仍然创下自 10 月 10 日以来的最差周表现，各自下跌近 2%。根据道琼斯市场数据，纳斯达克综合指数（COMP）本周下跌超过 2.7%。</p>
</div><p>Sosnick told MarketWatch that the wild swings in the stock market this week underscore how fragile investor confidence has become, with Friday's rally also appearing fleeting as the market's underlying fundamentals have barely changed. That could spell trouble for the days ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Sosnick 告诉 MarketWatch，本周股市的剧烈波动凸显了投资者信心的脆弱，周五的反弹似乎也很短暂，因为市场的基本面几乎没有变化。这可能预示着未来几天的麻烦。</p>
</div><p>&#34;When you get this rally chasing, it could really put you on a very precarious footing in the market,&#34; he said. &#34;People buy dips only when they legitimately think stocks are 'on sale' for fundamental or technical reasons, but now they are doing it simply because stocks are getting more expensive, and they think they will be able to flip it to someone else who will pay more for that.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“当你开始追涨时，这可能会让你在市场上处于非常危险的境地，” 他说。“人们只有在真正认为股票因基本面或技术原因 ‘打折’ 时才会买入下跌，但现在他们只是因为股票变得更贵而买入，他们认为可以将其转手给愿意支付更高价格的人。”</p>
</div><p>Ben Fulton, chief executive officer at WEBs Investments, said the stock rebound on Friday suggests traders are &#34;still resilient as the rising sun&#34; as they show up for &#34;the early Black Friday sales in the stock market.&#34; However, the problem is that the market recovery can be short-lived if early profit-taking is experienced when the markets rebound quicker than expected, he told MarketWatch on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>WEBs Investments 的首席执行官 Ben Fulton 表示，周五的股票反弹表明交易者 “仍然像初升的太阳一样充满韧性”，因为他们出现在 “股市的早期黑色星期五促销” 中。然而，他告诉 MarketWatch，问题在于，如果市场反弹快于预期，早期获利了结可能会使市场复苏短暂。</p>
</div><p>See: Crypto, the dollar, stocks and credit are telling the Fed it needs to cut, popular strategist says</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>见：加密货币、美元、股票和信贷正在告诉美联储需要降息，流行策略师表示。</p>
</div><p>This week's market action also saw investors rotate into some of the traditional defensive corners on the stock market, as riskier assets such as megacap tech stocks and bitcoin (BTCUSD) came under pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周的市场行动还看到投资者转向股市的一些传统防御性领域，因为风险资产如大型科技股和比特币（BTCUSD）受到压力。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500's consumer-staples XX:SP500.30 and healthcare XX:SP500.35 sectors were among the few areas on the large-cap benchmark index to close the week higher. For the month, these two sectors have surged 2.2% and 7.1%, respectively, compared with the 3.5% decline in the S&amp;P 500 in the same period, according to FactSet data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔 500 指数的消费品（XX:SP500.30）和医疗保健（XX:SP500.35）板块是大型基准指数中为数不多的收盘上涨的领域之一。在这个月，这两个板块分别上涨了 2.2% 和 7.1%，而同期标准普尔 500 指数下跌了 3.5%，根据 FactSet 数据。</p>
</div><p>Consumer staples and healthcare are traditionally viewed as defensive plays during periods of elevated market volatility. Gold prices (GC00) fell off their peak but have still risen 2.4% so far in November, according to FactSet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消费品和医疗保健在市场波动加剧期间通常被视为防御性投资。根据 FactSet 的数据，黄金价格（GC00）虽然从高峰回落，但在 11 月迄今仍上涨了 2.4%。</p>
</div><p>Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, said the sector rotation is driven more by valuations and less about a classic &#34;flight to safety&#34; trade - with money moving out of stretched megacap technology names and into cheaper parts of the market - rather than a response to stress in the U.S. economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Plante Moran Financial Advisors 的首席投资官 Jim Baird 表示，行业轮动更多是由估值驱动，而不是经典的 “避险交易”——资金从被高估的大型科技股流出，流入市场中更便宜的部分，而不是对美国经济压力的反应。</p>
</div><p>&#34;As valuations look pretty stretched in those big-cap tech names, investors are starting to look for other ways to improve their portfolio diversification and be a little less tied to the AI story and position themselves in a more diversified manner,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“由于这些大型科技股的估值看起来相当高，投资者开始寻找其他方式来改善他们的投资组合多样化，并在一定程度上减少与人工智能故事的关联，以更具多样化的方式进行布局，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Taking a little bit of those winnings off the table, particularly during periods of uncertainty, can help you sleep at night,&#34; Baird added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在不确定性时期，适当减持一些盈利，特别是可以帮助你晚上睡得更好，” Baird 补充道。</p>
</div><p>-Isabel Wang</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Isabel Wang</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>11-22-25 1202ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11-22-25 1202ET</p>
</div>

华尔街动荡的一周显示出股市信心已经变得多么脆弱