<p>曾几何时，香港的零售地产商看起来不可动摇。如果你想要稳定的收入，你会购买该市领先房地产投资信托基金（Reits）的股票，这些信托基金是建立在客流、日常消费和长期以来认为香港人会一直购物的假设之上的稳定分红机器。\n 这些公司是日常商业的坚实支柱。它们的繁荣并不是因为经济蓬勃发展，而是因为消费者不断光顾。\n 那个时代现在感觉格外遥远。最近的冲击来自于香港最大的零售地产商 Link Reit，俗称 “租金收集者”，发布了截至 9 月 30 日的六个月中期业绩。数字令人沮丧：收入同比下降 1.8%，净物业收入下降 3.4%，最令人震惊的是，每单位分配下降了 5.9%。\n 投资者毫不犹豫。股票在一天内暴跌超过 6%。对于依赖 Link 稳定分红来支付账单和购买杂货的数千名退休人员来说，这无疑是对他们每月预算的重击。但更深层次的故事在于，这些数字悄然传达了香港的现状。\n 香港的零售行业几乎经历了所有的考验：金融危机、抗议活动、疫情和政治动荡。但当前的低迷感觉有所不同。这不是一次下滑，而是一种转变。Link 的数字清楚地表明了这一点。\n 尽管香港的购物中心入住率高达 97.6%，大陆为 95.9%，但该信托被迫大幅降低租金。其在香港的重新出租租金下降了 6.4%，在大陆下降了 16.4%。与六个月前的情况形成鲜明对比。当时，香港的租金回归率为温和的负 2.2%，而大陆几乎持平。\n\n\n 如此快速和大规模的下降不仅是运营问题，更是市场失去活力的症状。零售商们正在努力生存。为了维持商店运营，Link 正在做一些在香港黄金年代的地产商中很少做的事情：向下谈判租金。\n 即使是邻里购物中心也面临压力，这揭示了更广泛的行为转变。深圳已成为香港人周末的事实游乐场。更低的价格、新的购物中心、无尽的餐饮选择和社交媒体使得北上消费成为一种常态。曾经偶尔的享受现在变成了一种生活方式。\n 当地零售商曾依赖周末人潮，现在在香港享受长假时却面临最安静的时刻。\nLink 的问题不能仅仅归咎于消费者习惯。部分痛苦是自我造成的。在过去几年中，该信托在香港之外积极扩张，收购了中国大陆、新加坡、澳大利亚甚至英国的购物中心。回顾来看，这被视为大胆的多元化，但其中的收购更像是代价高昂的实验，而非稳妥的投资。\n 大陆消费者信心已降温，澳大利亚等市场的零售环境也有所放缓。同时，全球债券收益率上升对物业估值造成了压力。Link 曾经可预测的形象与全球风险交织在一起。\n\n\n 随着首席执行官 George Hongchoy Kwok-lung 即将退休，关于他任期的赞美之词将会涌现。投资者可能会记住其他事情。许多收购稀释了回报，提高了债务水平，并使信托在香港进入低迷期时暴露在风险之中。\n 当一个重量级企业跌倒时，它迫使人们认真审视整个行业。一些企业正在找到强劲的增长点。萨萨国际控股公司报告称，香港和澳门的收入增长了 9.4%，同店销售增长了 11.4%。六福集团预计收益将增长多达 50%。即使在餐饮行业，像 Cafe de Coral 这样的连锁店警告业绩疲软，太兴集团却传来了好消息。\n 确实有赢家。但他们是例外。如今，成功需要优势、策略和有分量的品牌。任何普通的东西都被更广泛的潮流所淹没。\n 经济学家们早已警告，香港的成本结构与其区域同行相比已失去平衡。房价、商业租金和工资都很高，而香港元在货币挂钩下无法贬值。如果这个城市无法通过汇率调整，就只能通过价格调整。痛苦地调整。这种情况曾在 1998 年至 2003 年间发生，当时租金和物业价值急剧下降。看来这个城市又一次进入了类似的过程。\n\n\n 房价从 2021 年的峰值下跌了近 30%。办公和零售物业的价值下降得更厉害。公务员面临薪资冻结。Link，这一稳定收入的终极象征，已加入被迫收紧开支的机构名单。所有迹象都表明，经济正进入收缩阶段，可能不会迅速反弹。\n 对于许多家庭，尤其是依赖分红收入的老年居民来说，未来一年可能需要更加精打细算：减少午餐、选择更便宜的茶具、安静地削减日常舒适。随着支出收紧，零售可能会感受到压力，形成一个进一步减缓复苏的反馈循环。\n 然而，一旦成本重置，这座城市可以重新获得动力。香港仍然有顺风：活跃的金融市场、Web3 倡议、稳定的公司和人才流入。但短期内无可避免地艰难。\n 香港曾经历过寒冬。春天通常会随之而来——只是不会立即到来。</p>

领展房产基金

<p>香港的零售行业面临显著下滑，主要房东如领展房产基金的收入和租金均在下降。这一变化是由消费者习惯的改变、区域竞争和全球经济压力驱动的。尽管入住率高，领展房产基金仍然降低了租金，反映出市场正在失去活力。这一下滑是更广泛经济收缩的一部分，伴随着房产价值下降和薪资冻结，令人想起过去的经济调整</p>

<p>There was a time when Hong Kong’s retail landlords looked untouchable. If you wanted a dependable income, you would buy shares in the city’s leading real estate investment trusts (Reits), the steady dividend machines of a service economy built on foot traffic, routine and the long-held assumption that Hongkongers would always shop.\nThese companies were the unshakeable pillars of everyday commerce. They prospered not because the economy was roaring, but because consumers kept showing up.\nThat era now feels strangely distant. The latest jolt came when Link Reit, the city’s largest retail landlord colloquially known as the rent collector-in-chief, released its interim results for the six months ended September 30. The numbers were grim: revenue down by 1.8 per cent year on year, net property income down by 3.4 per cent and, most shocking of all, a 5.9 per cent decline in distribution per unit.\nInvestors wasted no time. The stock plunged by more than 6 per cent in a day. For the thousands of retirees who rely on Link’s steady payouts to pay bills and buy groceries, it was a punch in their monthly budget. But the deeper story here is what these numbers are quietly saying about Hong Kong.\nHong Kong’s retail sector has survived almost everything: financial crises, protests, pandemics and political upheaval. But the current downturn feels different. It’s not a dip. It’s a shift. Link’s figures make that plain.\nDespite impressive mall occupancy rates of 97.6 per cent in Hong Kong and 95.9 per cent on the mainland, the trust has been forced to sharply lower rents. Its reletting rents have fallen by 6.4 per cent in Hong Kong and 16.4 per cent on the mainland. The contrast with six months earlier is jarring. Back then, the rent reversion rate was a modest negative 2.2 per cent for Hong Kong and almost flat for the mainland.\n\n\nA decline of this speed and scale is less an operational issue and more a symptom of a market losing steam. Retailers are struggling to survive. To keep shops open, Link is doing something landlords rarely did in Hong Kong’s golden years: negotiating downwards.\nThat even neighbourhood malls are under pressure reveals a wider behavioural shift. Shenzhen has become the city’s de facto weekend playground. Lower prices, newer malls, endless dining options and social media have turned northbound spending into a routine. What was once an occasional treat is now a lifestyle.\nLocal retailers, once dependent on weekend crowds, now face their quietest moments whenever Hong Kong enjoys a long holiday.\nLink’s problems cannot be pinned only on consumer habits. Part of the pain is self-inflicted. Over the past several years, the trust expanded aggressively beyond Hong Kong, acquiring malls across mainland China, in Singapore, Australia and even Britain. What was framed as a bold diversification in retrospect includes acquisitions that look more like costly experiments than sure bets.\nMainland consumer sentiment has cooled, and retail conditions in markets such as Australia have softened. At the same time, rising global bond yields have weighed on property valuations. Link’s once predictable profile became entangled with global risks.\n\n\nWith CEO George Hongchoy Kwok-lung heading into retirement, there will be warm words about his tenure. Investors may remember something else. Many of the acquisitions diluted returns, raised debt levels and left the trust exposed just as Hong Kong entered its downturn.\nWhen a heavyweight stumbles, it forces a hard look at the field. Some businesses are finding pockets of strength. Sa Sa International Holdings reported a 9.4 per cent rise in revenue for Hong Kong and Macau, with an 11.4 per cent jump in same-store sales. Luk Fook Holdings expects earnings to climb by as much as 50 per cent. Even in the restaurant sector, where chains like Cafe de Coral warn of weaker results, Tai Hing Group is posting better news.\nThere are winners. But they are the exceptions. Success now demands an edge, a strategy, a brand with gravity. Anything ordinary is swept away by the wider tide.\nEconomists have long warned that Hong Kong’s cost structure has grown out of alignment with its regional peers. Housing prices, commercial rents and wages are high, while the Hong Kong dollar cannot devalue under the currency peg. If the city cannot adjust through its exchange rate, it adjusts through prices. Painfully. This happened once before, between 1998 and 2003, when rents and property values fell sharply. It appears the city is entering a similar process again.\n\n\nHome prices have fallen nearly 30 per cent from the 2021 peak. Office and retail property values have dropped even more. Civil servants are facing a pay freeze. Link, the ultimate symbol of stable income, has joined the list of institutions forced to tighten belts. All signs point to an economy that is entering a contraction phase and may not rebound quickly.\nFor many households, especially older residents depending on dividend income, the next year may involve more careful budgeting: a smaller lunch, a cheaper tea set, a quiet trimming of everyday comforts. As spending tightens, retail may feel the pressure, creating a feedback loop that slows recovery further.\nYet once costs reset, the city can regain momentum. Hong Kong still has tailwinds: active financial markets, Web3 initiatives, a steady inflow of companies and talent. But the near term is unavoidably tough.\nHong Kong has been through winters before. Spring usually follows – just not immediately.\n</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>曾几何时，香港的零售地产商看起来不可动摇。如果你想要稳定的收入，你会购买该市领先房地产投资信托基金（Reits）的股票，这些信托基金是建立在客流、日常消费和长期以来认为香港人会一直购物的假设之上的稳定分红机器。\n 这些公司是日常商业的坚实支柱。它们的繁荣并不是因为经济蓬勃发展，而是因为消费者不断光顾。\n 那个时代现在感觉格外遥远。最近的冲击来自于香港最大的零售地产商 Link Reit，俗称 “租金收集者”，发布了截至 9 月 30 日的六个月中期业绩。数字令人沮丧：收入同比下降 1.8%，净物业收入下降 3.4%，最令人震惊的是，每单位分配下降了 5.9%。\n 投资者毫不犹豫。股票在一天内暴跌超过 6%。对于依赖 Link 稳定分红来支付账单和购买杂货的数千名退休人员来说，这无疑是对他们每月预算的重击。但更深层次的故事在于，这些数字悄然传达了香港的现状。\n 香港的零售行业几乎经历了所有的考验：金融危机、抗议活动、疫情和政治动荡。但当前的低迷感觉有所不同。这不是一次下滑，而是一种转变。Link 的数字清楚地表明了这一点。\n 尽管香港的购物中心入住率高达 97.6%，大陆为 95.9%，但该信托被迫大幅降低租金。其在香港的重新出租租金下降了 6.4%，在大陆下降了 16.4%。与六个月前的情况形成鲜明对比。当时，香港的租金回归率为温和的负 2.2%，而大陆几乎持平。\n\n\n 如此快速和大规模的下降不仅是运营问题，更是市场失去活力的症状。零售商们正在努力生存。为了维持商店运营，Link 正在做一些在香港黄金年代的地产商中很少做的事情：向下谈判租金。\n 即使是邻里购物中心也面临压力，这揭示了更广泛的行为转变。深圳已成为香港人周末的事实游乐场。更低的价格、新的购物中心、无尽的餐饮选择和社交媒体使得北上消费成为一种常态。曾经偶尔的享受现在变成了一种生活方式。\n 当地零售商曾依赖周末人潮，现在在香港享受长假时却面临最安静的时刻。\nLink 的问题不能仅仅归咎于消费者习惯。部分痛苦是自我造成的。在过去几年中，该信托在香港之外积极扩张，收购了中国大陆、新加坡、澳大利亚甚至英国的购物中心。回顾来看，这被视为大胆的多元化，但其中的收购更像是代价高昂的实验，而非稳妥的投资。\n 大陆消费者信心已降温，澳大利亚等市场的零售环境也有所放缓。同时，全球债券收益率上升对物业估值造成了压力。Link 曾经可预测的形象与全球风险交织在一起。\n\n\n 随着首席执行官 George Hongchoy Kwok-lung 即将退休，关于他任期的赞美之词将会涌现。投资者可能会记住其他事情。许多收购稀释了回报，提高了债务水平，并使信托在香港进入低迷期时暴露在风险之中。\n 当一个重量级企业跌倒时，它迫使人们认真审视整个行业。一些企业正在找到强劲的增长点。萨萨国际控股公司报告称，香港和澳门的收入增长了 9.4%，同店销售增长了 11.4%。六福集团预计收益将增长多达 50%。即使在餐饮行业，像 Cafe de Coral 这样的连锁店警告业绩疲软，太兴集团却传来了好消息。\n 确实有赢家。但他们是例外。如今，成功需要优势、策略和有分量的品牌。任何普通的东西都被更广泛的潮流所淹没。\n 经济学家们早已警告，香港的成本结构与其区域同行相比已失去平衡。房价、商业租金和工资都很高，而香港元在货币挂钩下无法贬值。如果这个城市无法通过汇率调整，就只能通过价格调整。痛苦地调整。这种情况曾在 1998 年至 2003 年间发生，当时租金和物业价值急剧下降。看来这个城市又一次进入了类似的过程。\n\n\n 房价从 2021 年的峰值下跌了近 30%。办公和零售物业的价值下降得更厉害。公务员面临薪资冻结。Link，这一稳定收入的终极象征，已加入被迫收紧开支的机构名单。所有迹象都表明，经济正进入收缩阶段，可能不会迅速反弹。\n 对于许多家庭，尤其是依赖分红收入的老年居民来说，未来一年可能需要更加精打细算：减少午餐、选择更便宜的茶具、安静地削减日常舒适。随着支出收紧，零售可能会感受到压力，形成一个进一步减缓复苏的反馈循环。\n 然而，一旦成本重置，这座城市可以重新获得动力。香港仍然有顺风：活跃的金融市场、Web3 倡议、稳定的公司和人才流入。但短期内无可避免地艰难。\n 香港曾经历过寒冬。春天通常会随之而来——只是不会立即到来。</p>
</div>

为什么这次对香港来说不仅仅是另一次零售业低迷