<p>像 TJX 和罗斯这样的零售商预计将吸引寻求便宜货的消费者</p>
<p>分析师更看好罗斯和 TJX，而非梅西百货和科尔士</p>
<p>投资者监测商店客流量以获取消费者情绪的洞察</p>
<p>高端零售商的股票上涨反映了富裕消费者的支出</p>
<p>一些早期促销活动在十月开始，折扣可能在圣诞节临近时加深</p>
<p>作者：Sinéad Carew</p>
<p>11 月 28 日（路透社）——当投资者在黑色星期五监测商店的人流时，他们将寻找另一种假日交易：在高物价和有限购物预算的混合经济中表现良好的零售商。除了零售巨头沃尔玛（WMT.N）外，折扣零售商如 TJX（TJX.N）和罗斯百货（ROST.O）预计将吸引一些寻求便宜货的消费者，远离梅西百货（M.N）和科尔士（KSS.N）。高端零售商如拉尔夫·劳伦（RL.N）和 Tapestry（TPR.N）预计将吸引大额消费，但这已经反映在他们的股价中。</p>
<p>沃尔玛今年迄今上涨约 21%，而拉尔夫·劳伦上涨约 61%，Tapestry 上涨约 70%。</p>
<p>尽管越来越多的消费者选择在沙发上在线下单，这在近年来极大地推动了亚马逊（AMZN.O）和沃尔玛的增长，投资者和分析师仍在关注商店客流量，以获取消费者情绪和偏好的线索。在持续的通货膨胀和放缓的劳动市场中，投资者预计低收入和中等收入家庭的支出将保持谨慎，而受益于 2025 年股市上涨的富裕消费者将承担部分支出缺口。</p>
<p>“每当你有一个分化的经济，一些人过得很好，而另一些人则不然，但每个人都想消费，这就提高了所有零售商的风险，” Bokeh Capital Partners 的首席投资官 Kim Forrest 说道。</p>
<p>她在感恩节前在沃尔玛看到 “压力重重” 的消费者，沃尔玛 “调整价格以让人们购买他们所需的商品”，例如 10 磅和 5 磅的土豆袋以及各种尺寸的火鸡。Forrest 表示，沃尔玛的 “引人注目的展示”，如一套感恩节餐桌的家居用品营销或婴儿区的装饰婴儿床，与塔吉特（TGT.N）相比表现良好。虽然过去塔吉特的商店展示说服消费者购买未计划的商品，但 Forrest 表示他们 “失去了商品展示的魔力”。上周，沃尔玛第二次上调了年度预测。塔吉特报告季度同店销售额大幅下滑，消费者减少了对服装和家居装饰的支出。</p>
<p>“如果你对钱很谨慎，你会想要获得最大的价值。你会去你认为能得到的商店。你不会去那种平淡无奇的购物体验，” Forrest 说道。她预计 TJX（TJMaxx 和 HomeGoods 的拥有者）的销售将强于梅西百货和科尔士。科尔士的股价在周二上涨了 42.5%，因为它预测未来一年销售下降幅度较小，利润更大。然而，该公司在过去 11 个季度报告了同店销售下降。</p>
<h3>一些零售商的低估值</h3>
<p>Morningstar 的零售分析师 David Swartz 表示，近年来投资者对罗斯百货和 TJX 的偏好超过了梅西百货和科尔士，这些公司受到来自清仓折扣店以及亚马逊和沃尔玛的激烈竞争的严重打击。</p>
<p>而在向高端市场发展方面，Swartz 认为拉尔夫·劳伦、Ulta Beauty（ULTA.O）和 Tapestry 在这个季节表现良好，但警告说提高他们已经很高的估值可能存在风险。</p>
<p>相比之下，耐克（NKE.N）和 Lululemon Athletica（LULU.O）近年来表现不佳。虽然 “他们可能不会报告出色的假日销售期，” Swartz 指出低估值，因此 “如果情况好转，你可能会看到股票大幅上涨。” 他提到一些零售商在十月就开始促销，而一些则在圣诞节或新年临近时加深折扣，而一些消费者则在线购买所有礼物。</p>
<p>“你不能仅仅根据一天的销售情况来判断整个季节的销售，” Swartz 说道。</p>
<p>Bokeh 的 Forrest 认为 VF Corp（VFC.N）是一个潜在的反弹故事，其股价今年迄今下跌约 19%，而 Urban Outfitters（URBN.O）的自有品牌商店表现不如其 Anthropologie 连锁店。</p>
<p>随着许多消费者面临压力，Fundstrat 的经济策略师 Hardika Singh 将关注高收入消费者的支出水平。</p>
<p>“如果他们的支出减弱，那么我们在经济上将面临一些问题，” 她说。</p>

沃尔玛

塔吉特

罗斯百货

拉夫劳伦

<p>投资者正关注像 TJX 和罗斯这样的零售股票，这些股票在高物价的混合经济中受到青睐，超过梅西和科尔斯。分析师指出，像拉夫劳伦和 Tapestry 这样的高端零售商吸引了富裕消费者，这在股票上涨中得到了体现。沃尔玛的战略定价受到关注，而塔吉特的销售额则出现下滑。分析师认为像耐克和 Lululemon 这样的低估股票具有潜力。人们正在关注高收入消费者支出的经济影响，并对其是否会下降表示担忧</p>

<p>Retailers like TJX and Ross expected to attract bargain hunters</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像 TJX 和罗斯这样的零售商预计将吸引寻求便宜货的消费者</p>
</div><p>Analysts favor Ross and TJX over Macy’s and Kohl’s</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师更看好罗斯和 TJX，而非梅西百货和科尔士</p>
</div><p>Investors monitor store traffic for consumer sentiment insights</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者监测商店客流量以获取消费者情绪的洞察</p>
</div><p>High-end retailers’ stock gains reflect affluent consumer spending</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高端零售商的股票上涨反映了富裕消费者的支出</p>
</div><p>Some early sales started in October, discounts may deepen closer to Christmas</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些早期促销活动在十月开始，折扣可能在圣诞节临近时加深</p>
</div><p>By Sinéad Carew</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Sinéad Carew</p>
</div><p>Nov 28 (Reuters) - As investors monitor crowd sizes at stores on Black Friday they will be shopping for a different kind of holiday deal: retailers that do well in a mixed economy characterized by high prices and limited shopping budgets. Along with retail powerhouse Walmart (WMT.N) , off-price retailers such as TJX (TJX.N) and Ross Stores (ROST.O) are expected to draw some bargain hunters away from department stores like Macy’s (M.N) and Kohls (KSS.N) . Higher-end retailers like Ralph Lauren (RL.N) and Tapestry (TPR.N) are expected to attract big-spenders but that is already reflected in their shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11 月 28 日（路透社）——当投资者在黑色星期五监测商店的人流时，他们将寻找另一种假日交易：在高物价和有限购物预算的混合经济中表现良好的零售商。除了零售巨头沃尔玛（WMT.N）外，折扣零售商如 TJX（TJX.N）和罗斯百货（ROST.O）预计将吸引一些寻求便宜货的消费者，远离梅西百货（M.N）和科尔士（KSS.N）。高端零售商如拉尔夫·劳伦（RL.N）和 Tapestry（TPR.N）预计将吸引大额消费，但这已经反映在他们的股价中。</p>
</div><p>Walmart is up about 21% year-to-date, while Ralph Lauren is up around 61% and Tapestry is up about 70%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃尔玛今年迄今上涨约 21%，而拉尔夫·劳伦上涨约 61%，Tapestry 上涨约 70%。</p>
</div><p>Investors and analysts still watch store traffic for clues on consumer sentiment and preferences even though an increasing number of shoppers opt to order online from the couch, which has boosted Amazon.com (AMZN.O) and Walmart hugely in recent years. Amid persistent inflation and a slowing labor market, investors expect cautious spending from low- and middle-income households, while well-off consumers who have benefited from 2025’s stock market gains will pick up some of the spending slack.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管越来越多的消费者选择在沙发上在线下单，这在近年来极大地推动了亚马逊（AMZN.O）和沃尔玛的增长，投资者和分析师仍在关注商店客流量，以获取消费者情绪和偏好的线索。在持续的通货膨胀和放缓的劳动市场中，投资者预计低收入和中等收入家庭的支出将保持谨慎，而受益于 2025 年股市上涨的富裕消费者将承担部分支出缺口。</p>
</div><p>“Whenever you have a bifurcated economy where some people are doing really well and others are not but everybody wants to spend, that just raises the stakes for all the retailers,” said Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“每当你有一个分化的经济，一些人过得很好，而另一些人则不然，但每个人都想消费，这就提高了所有零售商的风险，” Bokeh Capital Partners 的首席投资官 Kim Forrest 说道。</p>
</div><p>She saw “stressed” shoppers before Thanksgiving at Walmart, which was “bending their pricing to allow people to buy what they need” with a 10- and 5-pound potato sacks and a variety of turkey sizes. Forrest said Walmart’s “eye-catching displays,” like a set Thanksgiving table marketing home goods or a decorated crib in the baby section, compared favorably to Target (TGT.N) . While, in the past, Target store displays convinced shoppers to buy unplanned items, Forrest said they have “lost their merchandising mojo.” Last week, Walmart increased annual forecasts for the second time this year. Target reported a bigger-than-expected drop in quarterly same-store sales as consumers pulled back spending on apparel and home decor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她在感恩节前在沃尔玛看到 “压力重重” 的消费者，沃尔玛 “调整价格以让人们购买他们所需的商品”，例如 10 磅和 5 磅的土豆袋以及各种尺寸的火鸡。Forrest 表示，沃尔玛的 “引人注目的展示”，如一套感恩节餐桌的家居用品营销或婴儿区的装饰婴儿床，与塔吉特（TGT.N）相比表现良好。虽然过去塔吉特的商店展示说服消费者购买未计划的商品，但 Forrest 表示他们 “失去了商品展示的魔力”。上周，沃尔玛第二次上调了年度预测。塔吉特报告季度同店销售额大幅下滑，消费者减少了对服装和家居装饰的支出。</p>
</div><p>“If you’re careful with your money you’re going to want the most bang for your buck. You’re going to go to the store where you think you could get that. You’re not going to go to a humdrum kind of shopping experience,” said Forrest. She expects stronger sales for TJX - owner of TJMaxx and HomeGoods - than at Macy’s and Kohls. Kohl’s shares rallied 42.5% on Tuesday when it projected a smaller drop in sales and bigger profit for the year ahead. However, the company has reported same-store sales declines in the last 11 quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果你对钱很谨慎，你会想要获得最大的价值。你会去你认为能得到的商店。你不会去那种平淡无奇的购物体验，” Forrest 说道。她预计 TJX（TJMaxx 和 HomeGoods 的拥有者）的销售将强于梅西百货和科尔士。科尔士的股价在周二上涨了 42.5%，因为它预测未来一年销售下降幅度较小，利润更大。然而，该公司在过去 11 个季度报告了同店销售下降。</p>
</div><h3>LOW VALUATIONS FOR SOME RETAILERS</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>一些零售商的低估值</h3>
</div><p>David Swartz, senior analyst covering retailers at Morningstar, said investors have shown a preference in recent years for Ross Stores and TJX over Macy’s and Kohl’s, which have been “hit hard by competition from the clearance off-price stores as well as Amazon and Walmart.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Morningstar 的零售分析师 David Swartz 表示，近年来投资者对罗斯百货和 TJX 的偏好超过了梅西百货和科尔士，这些公司受到来自清仓折扣店以及亚马逊和沃尔玛的激烈竞争的严重打击。</p>
</div><p>And going more upmarket, Swartz sees Ralph Lauren, Ulta Beauty (ULTA.O) , and Tapestry doing well this season, but warned that increasing their already-rich valuations could be risky.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而在向高端市场发展方面，Swartz 认为拉尔夫·劳伦、Ulta Beauty（ULTA.O）和 Tapestry 在这个季节表现良好，但警告说提高他们已经很高的估值可能存在风险。</p>
</div><p>In contrast, Nike (NKE.N) and LuLulemon Athletica (LULU.O) have underperformed in recent years. While “they may not necessarily report great holiday periods,” Swartz points to low valuations, so “if things do get better, you could see the stocks go up quite a lot.” He noted that some retailers kick off sales as early as October and some deepen discounts closer to Christmas or in the New Year, while some consumers buy all their gifts online.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，耐克（NKE.N）和 Lululemon Athletica（LULU.O）近年来表现不佳。虽然 “他们可能不会报告出色的假日销售期，” Swartz 指出低估值，因此 “如果情况好转，你可能会看到股票大幅上涨。” 他提到一些零售商在十月就开始促销，而一些则在圣诞节或新年临近时加深折扣，而一些消费者则在线购买所有礼物。</p>
</div><p>“You can’t judge the whole season’s sales just based on one day,” said Swartz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“你不能仅仅根据一天的销售情况来判断整个季节的销售，” Swartz 说道。</p>
</div><p>Bokeh’s Forrest sees VF Corp (VFC.N) , whose shares are down about 19% year-to-date, as a potential turnaround story while Urban Outfitters’ (URBN.O) namesake stores have not been doing as well as its Anthropologie chain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Bokeh 的 Forrest 认为 VF Corp（VFC.N）是一个潜在的反弹故事，其股价今年迄今下跌约 19%，而 Urban Outfitters（URBN.O）的自有品牌商店表现不如其 Anthropologie 连锁店。</p>
</div><p>With many consumers under pressure, Hardika Singh, economic strategist at Fundstrat, will watch spending levels among higher-income shoppers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着许多消费者面临压力，Fundstrat 的经济策略师 Hardika Singh 将关注高收入消费者的支出水平。</p>
</div><p>“If their spending falters, then we would have some trouble in the economy, she said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果他们的支出减弱，那么我们在经济上将面临一些问题，” 她说。</p>
</div>

Uneven economy will drive investors' Black Friday stock picking

- 投资者关注黑色星期五的店内人流量，以评估消费者情绪。  
- TJX 和 Ross 被看好，预计将吸引更多的折扣购物者。  
- 高端零售商的股价反映出富裕消费者的支出增长。  

经济的不均衡将促使投资者在黑色星期五进行股票选择