<p>Hyperliquid 在 11 月 29 日解锁的 95 亿美元代币，并未如之前预期那样施加卖压。</p>
<p>根据链上分析师 Kirby Crypto 的说法，跟踪解锁后的分配，只有 23%（609K 代币）的 175 万 HYPE 代币通过场外交易（OTC）出售。他补充道，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“总体而言，持有和重新质押的比例远高于出售。如果未来的解锁情况相同，解锁压力将远低于预期。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/HYPE-unlock.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/HYPE-unlock.jpg"/></p>
<p>来源：X</p>
<p>大约四个钱包重新质押了 234.6K HYPE（占解锁供应的 9%），团队还通过 Hyperlabs 重新质押了 854K HYPE（占解锁的 33%）。</p>
<p>总体而言，超过 40% 的解锁代币被重新质押，其余 35% 由其他团队成员持有。</p>
<h2><strong>映射早期 HYPE 卖压的恐惧</strong></h2>
<p>Hyperliquid 在 2023 年第一季度首次亮相后迅速成功，因为它是第一款感觉像中心化交易所（CEX）的去中心化交易所（DEX），同时保持完全链上和透明。</p>
<p>该项目没有风险投资（VC）支持，因此在代币生成事件（TGE）期间没有臭名昭著的 VC 抛售。因此，HYPE 代币在 2024 年第四季度首次亮相时，从约 4 美元飙升至 2025 年的 59 美元峰值。</p>
<p>然而，Aster、Lighter 和其他竞争 DEX 的出现，威胁到其持续的市场份额。</p>
<p>此外，其每月的代币解锁，从上周的事件开始，被 BitMEX 创始人 Arthur Hayes 等顶尖声音视为看跌。</p>
<p>事实上，Hayes 估计，解锁带来的卖压，尤其是与团队相关的，将在未来 24 个月内达到约 120 亿美元，基于当时 HYPE 的价格。</p>
<p>根据 Hayes 的说法，这相当于每月 5 亿美元的卖压，无法通过回购计划来抵消。</p>
<p>以每月 8500 万美元的回购，最多只能吸收 17% 的抛售，迫使 Hayes 卖掉大部分 HYPE 持有的代币，进一步恶化了市场情绪。</p>
<p>实际上，每月的回购几乎保持在他预测的水平（11 月为 8200 万美元）。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Hyperliquid-monthly-unlock.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Hyperliquid-monthly-unlock.jpg"/></p>
<p>来源：Tokenomist</p>
<h2>HYPE 引发鲸鱼兴趣</h2>
<p>然而，最近解锁的 609K HYPE（约 2000 万美元）的卖压比 Hayes 预测的 5 亿美元低了 96%。实际上，每月的回购是解锁压力的 4 倍。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，HYPE 在 11 月 29 日解锁期间略微下滑 1.7%。截至发稿时，交易价格为 33.80 美元，表明解锁事件并未造成影响。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Hyperliquid-Spot-Average-Order-Size-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Hyperliquid-Spot-Average-Order-Size-1.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>此外，近期低点出现了大量鲸鱼活动，暗示在当前水平上可能出现上升的积累。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最终思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li><em>HYPE 的解锁相关卖压比 Hayes 预测的低 96%.</em></li>
<li><em>在当前水平上，鲸鱼兴趣重新出现，如果整体市场情绪改善，可能会促进 HYPE 的复苏。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>Hyperliquid 的 95 亿美元代币解锁仅售出 23% 的 HYPE 代币，与预期的卖压相悖。分析师 Kirby Crypto 指出，持币和重新质押的情况有所增加，超过 40% 的代币被重新质押。尽管像 Arthur Hayes 这样的专家表示担忧，但卖压比预期低了 96%。鲸鱼的 renewed interest 暗示如果市场情绪改善，HYPE 可能会迎来复苏</p>

<p>Hyperliquid $9.5 billion token unlock on the 29th of November, didn’t exert selling pressure as earlier anticipated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Hyperliquid 在 11 月 29 日解锁的 95 亿美元代币，并未如之前预期那样施加卖压。</p>
</div><p>According to on-chain analyst Kirby Crypto, tracking the post-unlock distribution, only 23% (609K tokens) of the 1.75 million HYPE tokens were sold via OTC desks. He added,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据链上分析师 Kirby Crypto 的说法，跟踪解锁后的分配，只有 23%（609K 代币）的 175 万 HYPE 代币通过场外交易（OTC）出售。他补充道，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Overall, there is far more hodling and re-staking over selling. If future unlocks are the same, unlock pressure would be far lower than expected.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“总体而言，持有和重新质押的比例远高于出售。如果未来的解锁情况相同，解锁压力将远低于预期。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/HYPE-unlock.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/HYPE-unlock.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X</p>
</div><p>About four of the wallets re-staked 234.6K HYPE (9% of unlock supply), and the team also restaked another 854K HYPE (33% of unlock) via Hyperlabs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大约四个钱包重新质押了 234.6K HYPE（占解锁供应的 9%），团队还通过 Hyperlabs 重新质押了 854K HYPE（占解锁的 33%）。</p>
</div><p>Collectively, over 40% of the unlocked tokens were restaked, while the remaining 35% were held by the other team members.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，超过 40% 的解锁代币被重新质押，其余 35% 由其他团队成员持有。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Mapping earlier HYPE selling fears</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>映射早期 HYPE 卖压的恐惧</strong></h2>
</div><p>Hyperliquid became an instant success after debuting in Q1 2023, as it was the first DEX that felt like a CEX, while remaining fully on-chain and transparent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Hyperliquid 在 2023 年第一季度首次亮相后迅速成功，因为它是第一款感觉像中心化交易所（CEX）的去中心化交易所（DEX），同时保持完全链上和透明。</p>
</div><p>The project had no venture capital (VC) backing, hence no infamous VC dump during the token generation event (TGE). As such, the HYPE token, which debuted in Q4 2024, surged from about $4 to a peak of $59 in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该项目没有风险投资（VC）支持，因此在代币生成事件（TGE）期间没有臭名昭著的 VC 抛售。因此，HYPE 代币在 2024 年第四季度首次亮相时，从约 4 美元飙升至 2025 年的 59 美元峰值。</p>
</div><p>However, Aster, Lighter, and other competitive DEXs emerged, threatening to erode its perpetual market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Aster、Lighter 和其他竞争 DEX 的出现，威胁到其持续的市场份额。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, its monthly token unlock, starting with last week’s event, was viewed as bearish by top voices like BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，其每月的代币解锁，从上周的事件开始，被 BitMEX 创始人 Arthur Hayes 等顶尖声音视为看跌。</p>
</div><p>In fact, Hayes estimated that the selling pressure from the unlocks, especially those linked to the team, would amount to about $12 billion over the next 24 months based on HYPE’s price at that time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，Hayes 估计，解锁带来的卖压，尤其是与团队相关的，将在未来 24 个月内达到约 120 亿美元，基于当时 HYPE 的价格。</p>
</div><p>This translated to a $500 million per month selling pressure that couldn’t be offset by the buyback program, according to Hayes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Hayes 的说法，这相当于每月 5 亿美元的卖压，无法通过回购计划来抵消。</p>
</div><p>At $85 million per month, the buyback could only absorb 17% of the dump, forcing Hayes to sell most of his HYPE holdings and further soured the market sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以每月 8500 万美元的回购，最多只能吸收 17% 的抛售，迫使 Hayes 卖掉大部分 HYPE 持有的代币，进一步恶化了市场情绪。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, the monthly buyback remained at nearly the rate he projected ($82 million for November).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>实际上，每月的回购几乎保持在他预测的水平（11 月为 8200 万美元）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Hyperliquid-monthly-unlock.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Hyperliquid-monthly-unlock.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: Tokenomist</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Tokenomist</p>
</div><h2>HYPE sparks whale interest</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>HYPE 引发鲸鱼兴趣</h2>
</div><p>However, the selling pressure of 609K HYPE (about $20 million) from the recent unlock meant a 96% lower than Hayes’ $500 million projection. In fact, the monthly buyback was 4x more than the unlock pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，最近解锁的 609K HYPE（约 2000 万美元）的卖压比 Hayes 预测的 5 亿美元低了 96%。实际上，每月的回购是解锁压力的 4 倍。</p>
</div><p>Notably, HYPE slipped slightly by 1.7% during the unlock on the 29th of November. It traded at $33.80 at press time, underscoring that the unlock was a non-event.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，HYPE 在 11 月 29 日解锁期间略微下滑 1.7%。截至发稿时，交易价格为 33.80 美元，表明解锁事件并未造成影响。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Hyperliquid-Spot-Average-Order-Size-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Hyperliquid-Spot-Average-Order-Size-1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>Besides, there has been large whale activity at the recent lows, suggesting likely rising accumulation at current levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，近期低点出现了大量鲸鱼活动，暗示在当前水平上可能出现上升的积累。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最终思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>HYPE experienced 96% lower selling pressure linked to unlock than projected by Hayes.</em></li>
<li><em>There was a renewed whale interest at current levels, which could bolster HYPE’s recovery if the broader market sentiment improves.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>HYPE 的解锁相关卖压比 Hayes 预测的低 96%.</em></li>
<li><em>在当前水平上，鲸鱼兴趣重新出现，如果整体市场情绪改善，可能会促进 HYPE 的复苏。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

仅有 23% 的 HYPE 被抛售：评估 Hyperliquid 在 95 亿美元代币解锁后的未来发展