<p>从表面上看，数字资产代表了 “去中心化” 的巅峰。</p>
<p>但这在实践中真的如此吗？十月的崩盘对加密投资者来说是一次严峻的重置——数十亿资金在清算中被抹去，留下了深陷困境的持有者。触发因素？一次 “协调” 的鲸鱼撤退。</p>
<p>从这个角度来看，崩盘暴露了市场仍然高度集中。尽管如此，“在恐惧中买入” 仍然作为底部信号有效。随着十一月的结束，比特币鲸鱼似乎又开始回归这一策略。</p>
<h2><strong>第四季度动荡：当宏观经济遇上比特币鲸鱼压力</strong></h2>
<p>要理解当前市场，退一步看会有所帮助。</p>
<p>我们已经过了第四季度的一半，十月和十一月的崩盘仍在留下痕迹。总加密市场市值已下降 20.7%，降至 3.06 万亿美元，标志着自 2022 年第二季度以来最糟糕的季度下滑。</p>
<p>与此同时，比特币 [BTC] 价格比崩盘前的 12.2 万美元低 27%，第四季度的投资回报率为-20%，这是自 2018 年以来比特币最糟糕的季度表现。但究竟是什么催化了这一崩溃？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_btc-total-supply-held-by-long-term-holders-btc.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_btc-total-supply-held-by-long-term-holders-btc.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Glassnode</p>
<p>最初，一系列宏观因素引发了抛售。</p>
<p>美中关税紧张、MSCI 争议、MSTR 审查、联邦政府停摆以及美联储数据黑暗期都压制了风险偏好，使零售投资者感到恐慌，并引发了广泛的去杠杆化。</p>
<p>但这不仅仅是宏观因素的问题。</p>
<p>早期的持有者抛售了大量头寸，老鲸鱼和新鲸鱼也纷纷抛售。</p>
<p>综合来看，这就像一次协调的鲸鱼撤退，减少了长期持有者持有的比特币供应量，约为 18 万个币。</p>
<h2><strong>比特币鲸鱼利用期货从恐惧中获利</strong></h2>
<p>历史上，当零售投资者恐慌时，鲸鱼往往会出手。</p>
<p>在 2022 年的周期中，比特币从约 6.6 万美元跌至 4.2 万美元，持有 100-10,000 BTC 的钱包累计了约 67,000 BTC，当时价值约 34.4 亿美元。这就是教科书式的 “在恐惧中买入”。</p>
<p>然而，最近的鲸鱼抛售考验了加密货币的去中心化故事，因为少数大型持有者继续影响市场方向。结果？在期货市场上的战略押注，放大了短期波动性。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/1-12.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/1-12.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Alphractal</p>
<p>简单来说，与其在下跌时买入，一些鲸鱼却从崩盘中获利。例如，Hypurrscan 指出，一位鲸鱼在抛售后仅十天就开设了一个价值 2.35 亿美元的 10 倍比特币空头头寸。</p>
<p>一个月后，另一位分析师也指出了类似的举动。</p>
<p>如上图所示，比特币鲸鱼与零售投资者的差距跃升至绿色区域，表明鲸鱼要么在减少多头头寸，要么在提高空头头寸。</p>
<p>这是否意味着底部仍然遥不可及？</p>
<h2><strong>在下跌中买入：鲸鱼如何塑造年末趋势</strong></h2>
<p>十二月正处于一个关键的转折点。</p>
<p>在 2025 年下半年，比特币连续三次创下历史新高，但它们之间的净差异不足 5%。这表明在高位的买入压力较弱，后续跟进短暂。</p>
<p>鉴于这种情况，比特币鲸鱼倾向于做空并不令人惊讶。</p>
<p>然而，比特币和瑞波币 [XRP] 的链上指标显示鲸鱼流出急剧上升，暗示重新定位可能会影响年末的动量。</p>
<p>这反过来又指向了 “在恐惧中买入” 的策略。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/2-4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/2-4.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>值得注意的是，瑞波币的鲸鱼流出在十一月达到了 1.16 亿 XRP，与其在 2.20 美元附近的横盘走势相吻合。同样，持有超过 1,000 BTC 的钱包数量也大幅增加。</p>
<p>综合来看（战略退出、杠杆清算和重新积累信号），这一局面类似于一次 “健康” 的重置，比特币鲸鱼可能将 85,000 至 90,000 美元区间视为强有力的入场区。</p>
<p>因此，随着宏观不确定性减弱，近期争议降温，以及下次 FOMC 会议（降息概率上升）仅在 10 天后召开，十二月可能会在聪明投资者中开启新的动能。</p>
<p>在这种背景下，鲸鱼流出看起来像是一次战略性回归风险。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最后思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li><em>比特币鲸鱼的战略退出和杠杆清算重置了市场结构，为积累创造了条件。</em></li>
<li><em>比特币和瑞波币的鲸鱼流出信号表明风险回归，暗示年末动量可能会随着宏观压力的减弱而转变。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>比特币鲸鱼正在为 12 月做准备，此前 10 月的崩盘暴露了市场集中度。这次崩盘是由宏观因素和鲸鱼的协调性抛售引发的，导致了比特币的大规模抛售。鲸鱼们现在正在利用期货，并显示出重新积累的信号，这暗示着年末可能出现动量转变。随着宏观压力的减弱和战略性鲸鱼流出表明风险回归，12 月可能会出现新的动量</p>

<p>On paper, digital assets represent the apex of “decentralization.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从表面上看，数字资产代表了 “去中心化” 的巅峰。</p>
</div><p>But does that really play out in practice? The October crash was a hard reset for crypto investors — billions were flushed out in liquidations, leaving HODLers deep underwater. The trigger? A “coordinated” whale exit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这在实践中真的如此吗？十月的崩盘对加密投资者来说是一次严峻的重置——数十亿资金在清算中被抹去，留下了深陷困境的持有者。触发因素？一次 “协调” 的鲸鱼撤退。</p>
</div><p>In that light, the crash exposed how concentrated the market still is. Even so, “buy the fear” still works as a bottom signal. And as November wraps up, Bitcoin whales appear to be leaning back into that playbook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从这个角度来看，崩盘暴露了市场仍然高度集中。尽管如此，“在恐惧中买入” 仍然作为底部信号有效。随着十一月的结束，比特币鲸鱼似乎又开始回归这一策略。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Q4 shake-up: When macro meets Bitcoin whale pressure</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>第四季度动荡：当宏观经济遇上比特币鲸鱼压力</strong></h2>
</div><p>To understand the current market, it helps to take a step back.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要理解当前市场，退一步看会有所帮助。</p>
</div><p>We’re over halfway through Q4, and the October-November crashes are still leaving their mark. The TOTAL crypto market cap has dropped 20.7% to $3.06 trillion, marking the worst quarterly decline since Q2 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们已经过了第四季度的一半，十月和十一月的崩盘仍在留下痕迹。总加密市场市值已下降 20.7%，降至 3.06 万亿美元，标志着自 2022 年第二季度以来最糟糕的季度下滑。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, Bitcoin [BTC] sits 27% below its pre-crash $122k level, posting a -20% Q4 ROI, which makes this BTC’s worst quarterly bleed since 2018. But what exactly catalyzed this breakdown?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，比特币 [BTC] 价格比崩盘前的 12.2 万美元低 27%，第四季度的投资回报率为-20%，这是自 2018 年以来比特币最糟糕的季度表现。但究竟是什么催化了这一崩溃？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_btc-total-supply-held-by-long-term-holders-btc.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_btc-total-supply-held-by-long-term-holders-btc.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>Initially, a mix of macro factors sparked the sell-off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最初，一系列宏观因素引发了抛售。</p>
</div><p>U.S.–China tariff tensions, MSCI controversy, MSTR scrutiny, the federal shutdown, and a Fed data blackout all crushed risk appetite, leaving retail investors panicked and triggering widespread deleveraging.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美中关税紧张、MSCI 争议、MSTR 审查、联邦政府停摆以及美联储数据黑暗期都压制了风险偏好，使零售投资者感到恐慌，并引发了广泛的去杠杆化。</p>
</div><p>But this wasn’t just about macro.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这不仅仅是宏观因素的问题。</p>
</div><p>Satoshi-era HODLers offloaded sizable positions, and both old and new whales also dumped.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>早期的持有者抛售了大量头寸，老鲸鱼和新鲸鱼也纷纷抛售。</p>
</div><p>Taken together, it unfolded like a coordinated whale exit, reducing the BTC supply held by LTHs by roughly 180,000 coins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合来看，这就像一次协调的鲸鱼撤退，减少了长期持有者持有的比特币供应量，约为 18 万个币。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Bitcoin whales leverage futures to profit from fear</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>比特币鲸鱼利用期货从恐惧中获利</strong></h2>
</div><p>Historically, when retail panics, whales tend to step in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，当零售投资者恐慌时，鲸鱼往往会出手。</p>
</div><p>In the 2022 cycle, BTC dropped from about $66k to $42k, and wallets holding 100-10,000BTC accumulated roughly 67,000 BTC, worth around $3.44billion at the time. This was the textbook “buy the fear.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2022 年的周期中，比特币从约 6.6 万美元跌至 4.2 万美元，持有 100-10,000 BTC 的钱包累计了约 67,000 BTC，当时价值约 34.4 亿美元。这就是教科书式的 “在恐惧中买入”。</p>
</div><p>Lately, though, the recent whale sell-off has tested crypto’s decentralization story, as a few large holders continue to sway market direction. The result? Strategic bets in futures markets, amplifying short-term volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，最近的鲸鱼抛售考验了加密货币的去中心化故事，因为少数大型持有者继续影响市场方向。结果？在期货市场上的战略押注，放大了短期波动性。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/1-12.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/1-12.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Alphractal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Alphractal</p>
</div><p>Simply put, rather than buying the dip, some whales profited from the crash. Hypurrscan, for example, flagged a whale opening a 10x BTC short position worth $235 million just ten days after the sell-off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简单来说，与其在下跌时买入，一些鲸鱼却从崩盘中获利。例如，Hypurrscan 指出，一位鲸鱼在抛售后仅十天就开设了一个价值 2.35 亿美元的 10 倍比特币空头头寸。</p>
</div><p>A month later, another analyst flagged a similar move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个月后，另一位分析师也指出了类似的举动。</p>
</div><p>As the chart above shows, Bitcoin whale vs. retail delta jumped in the green band, suggesting whales are either cutting long positions or tweaking shorts higher compared to retail.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如上图所示，比特币鲸鱼与零售投资者的差距跃升至绿色区域，表明鲸鱼要么在减少多头头寸，要么在提高空头头寸。</p>
</div><p>Does this mean the bottom is still far off?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是否意味着底部仍然遥不可及？</p>
</div><h2><strong>Buy the dip: How whales are shaping year-end trends</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>在下跌中买入：鲸鱼如何塑造年末趋势</strong></h2>
</div><p>December is starting at a key inflection point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十二月正处于一个关键的转折点。</p>
</div><p>In the second half of 2025, BTC has hit three back-to-back all-time highs, yet the net difference across them is under 5%. This shows that buying pressure at the top is weak, keeping follow-through short.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年下半年，比特币连续三次创下历史新高，但它们之间的净差异不足 5%。这表明在高位的买入压力较弱，后续跟进短暂。</p>
</div><p>Given this setup, Bitcoin whales leaning into shorts isn’t surprising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于这种情况，比特币鲸鱼倾向于做空并不令人惊讶。</p>
</div><p>However, on-chain metrics for both BTC and Ripple [XRP] show a sharp jump in whale outflows, suggesting that renewed positioning could shape year-end momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，比特币和瑞波币 [XRP] 的链上指标显示鲸鱼流出急剧上升，暗示重新定位可能会影响年末的动量。</p>
</div><p>In turn, it points back to the “buy the fear” playbook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这反过来又指向了 “在恐惧中买入” 的策略。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/2-4.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/2-4.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>Notably, XRP whale outflows totaled 116 million XRP through November, lining up with its sideways action around the $2.20 band. Likewise, wallets holding over 1,000 BTC have shot higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，瑞波币的鲸鱼流出在十一月达到了 1.16 亿 XRP，与其在 2.20 美元附近的横盘走势相吻合。同样，持有超过 1,000 BTC 的钱包数量也大幅增加。</p>
</div><p>Taken together (the strategic exits, the leverage flush, and renewed accumulation signals), the setup resembles a “healthy” reset, with Bitcoin whales likely targeting the $85k–$90k range as a strong entry zone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合来看（战略退出、杠杆清算和重新积累信号），这一局面类似于一次 “健康” 的重置，比特币鲸鱼可能将 85,000 至 90,000 美元区间视为强有力的入场区。</p>
</div><p>Hence, with macro FUD fading, recent controversies cooling off, and the next FOMC meeting (with rising rate-cut odds) just 10 days away, December could open with fresh momentum among smart investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，随着宏观不确定性减弱，近期争议降温，以及下次 FOMC 会议（降息概率上升）仅在 10 天后召开，十二月可能会在聪明投资者中开启新的动能。</p>
</div><p>In this context, whale outflows look like a strategic rotation back into risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，鲸鱼流出看起来像是一次战略性回归风险。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最后思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Bitcoin whale strategic exits and leverage flushes have reset market structure, creating the setup for accumulation.</em></li>
<li><em>Renewed whale outflows across BTC and XRP signal a shift back into risk, suggesting year-end momentum may turn as macro pressure fades.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>比特币鲸鱼的战略退出和杠杆清算重置了市场结构，为积累创造了条件。</em></li>
<li><em>比特币和瑞波币的鲸鱼流出信号表明风险回归，暗示年末动量可能会随着宏观压力的减弱而转变。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

从恐慌到布局：比特币巨鲸如何为十二月进行布局