<p>汇丰银行对中国住宅房地产市场的相对乐观观点被认为是市场上最勇敢的判断之一，该行在 2 月份表示，2025 年将标志着这个疲软行业的拐点。汇丰当时表示：“我们早已预见到政府干预、被压抑的需求以及必要的市场修正将推动房地产销售的逐步复苏——而我们现在看到所有这些迹象正在显现。”\n 然而，这些复苏的迹象仅限于一线城市，更多地与新房和二手房价格的轻微下跌有关，而不是房价的明显上涨。此外，今年第一季度末，收缩速度重新加快的迹象已经显现。\n 在 11 月 13 日的一份报告中，汇丰表示 “在复苏后开始出现一些裂痕”，同时 “去库存的速度未能达到我们的预期，主要是由于销售势头减弱”。现实是，根本就没有真正的复苏。即使是中国房地产市场的稳定也证明是难以实现的。这部分解释了为何国有的中国万科——迄今为止最后一个避免违约的大型开发商之一——正处于财务崩溃的边缘。\n11 月 26 日，万科首次提出推迟偿还一笔以人民币计价的债券，导致其部分以美元计价的债券价格跌入困境区域，并加剧了人们对北京是否愿意支持即使是最大的脆弱开发商的担忧。\n 在万科宣布后，标准普尔全球评级表示，未来六个月 “困境重组” 的风险上升，并且万科的债务——包括在 2026 年 5 月之前到期的 114 亿元人民币（16 亿美元）的债务到期墙——由于其流动性疲弱而 “不可持续”。两年前，万科违约的前景会在中国市场引发动荡。现在，跟踪在国内外上市的中国公司的 MSCI 中国指数上周上涨了 2.8%。\n 微不足道的溢出效应显示了自 2021 年房地产危机爆发以来，中国政策和市场环境的变化程度。首先，自 2023 年以来，北京对该行业的政策显著放松，宣布了几轮刺激需求的措施。进一步的宽松，包括对抵押贷款借款人的利率补贴和所得税减免，可能正在酝酿之中。\n\n\n 清理大量未售出和未完成房屋的更全面措施成本高昂且复杂。这些措施与政府将高端制造业作为增长核心驱动力的优先事项相悖。然而，在市场对进一步支持中国房地产市场的预期较低的情况下，汇丰表示，“任何关于政策的消息都被视为好消息”。\n 其次，尽管面临美国总统特朗普的贸易战，出口在今年表现相当良好。摩根士丹利预计，净出口将对今年整体 GDP 增长贡献 1.4 个百分点，与 2024 年持平。这有助于弥补住宅房地产下滑带来的多年来的拖累。\n 中国出口的韧性加剧了贸易紧张局势，国家的经常账户盈余在上个季度创下历史新高，主要是由于创纪录的商品贸易盈余。这也突显了国家供应链的强大和竞争力，以及其技术实力。\n 第三，受科技驱动的中国股市飙升——MSCI 中国指数今年上涨超过 30%，而基准标准普尔 500 指数上涨 16.5%——改变了市场对中国的叙述。房地产危机在关于中国的股票研究报告中几乎没有提及。\n\n\n 摩根士丹利表示，人们对中国的看法已经从 “通缩/宏观放缓故事转变为创新和硬核技术突破的故事”。此外，股市的强劲反弹使得北京不愿在房地产领域采取更强有力的行动。野村证券表示，政策制定者担心如果他们加大政策支持，股市将变得 “过度膨胀”。\n 第四，大多数投资者不再暴露于中国房地产，这限制了万科财务困境的影响。该行业的违约潮和价值破坏减少了中国房地产在亚洲高收益或非投资级公司债券指数中的权重。\n 在 2021 年第二季度，中国开发商占亚洲高收益债券指数的 35%，而到 2024 年第二季度，其份额已降至不到 10%。此外，排除中国开发商的亚洲高收益发行人的违约率历来低于美国高收益市场。\n\n 然而，尽管市场和政策环境发生了变化，家庭、开发商和债权人仍在承受房地产行业再次加剧下滑的后果，即使是在一线城市。\n 野村认为，北京最终将被迫采取更积极的措施来稳定该行业，包括更强的去库存重点。尽管如此，它承认 “易于实施的政策已经用尽”，而更全面措施的时机 “高度不确定”。\n 中国住宅房地产行业的崩溃是一场漫长而拖延的危机。市场缺乏压力以及政府不愿采取更强有力的行动，使得危机更有可能持续很长时间。</p>

强邦新材

万科A

万科企业

<p>万科企业，一家主要开发商，正面临财务崩溃，提议推迟债券偿还。尽管如此，由于政策变化、强劲的出口和科技驱动的股票上涨，中国市场依然保持稳定。万科的困境突显了自 2021 年房地产危机以来投资者风险敞口和市场动态的变化。MSCI 中国指数上涨 2.8%，显示市场影响有限</p>

<p>HSBC, whose relatively bullish view on China’s residential property sector ranks as one of the bravest calls in markets, said in February that 2025 would mark an inflection point for the ailing industry. “We’ve long anticipated government intervention, pent-up demand and a necessary market correction to drive a gradual recovery in property sales – and we’re seeing signs of all of that playing out now,” HSBC said at the time.\nThese green shoots, however, were confined to first-tier cities and had more to do with shallower declines in the prices of new and second-hand properties than with outright increases in home values. Moreover, signs of a reacceleration in the pace of contraction were already apparent at the end of the first quarter of this year.\nIn a report on November 13, HSBC said “some cracks are starting to surface after a recovery”, while “the pace of destocking is falling short of our expectations, primarily due to weakening sales momentum”. The reality is that there was never a recovery in the first place. Even a stabilisation of China’s housing market has proved elusive. This partly explains why state-backed China Vanke – one of the last big developers to have so far averted a default – is teetering on the brink of financial collapse.\nOn November 26, Vanke proposed delaying repayment on a yuan-denominated bond for the first time, causing the prices of some of its dollar-denominated bonds to fall into distressed territory and heightening concerns over Beijing’s willingness to support even the largest vulnerable developers.\nFollowing Vanke’s announcement, S&amp;P Global Ratings said the risk of a “distressed restructuring” in the next six months had risen and that Vanke’s debts – which include a bond maturity wall of 11.4 billion yuan (US$1.6 billion) between December and May 2026 – were “unsustainable due to its weak liquidity”. Two years ago, the prospect of Vanke defaulting would have caused turmoil in China’s markets. Now, the MSCI China Index, which tracks Chinese companies listed at home and abroad, rose 2.8 per cent last week.\nThe negligible spillover effects show the extent to which the policy and market landscape in China has changed since the eruption of the housing crisis in 2021. First, Beijing has loosened policy towards the sector significantly since 2023, announcing several rounds of measures to stimulate demand. Further easing, including interest rate subsidies and income tax rebates for mortgage borrowers, is likely to be in the works.\n\n\nMore comprehensive measures to clear the huge backlog of unsold and unfinished homes are costly and complex. They also sit uncomfortably with the government’s prioritisation of high-end manufacturing as the core driver of growth. Still, at a time when market expectations for further support for China’s property market are low, “any news on policy is viewed as good news”, HSBC said.\nSecond, exports have performed remarkably well this year in the face of US President Donald Trump’s trade war. Morgan Stanley expects net exports to make a 1.4 percentage point contribution to overall GDP growth this year, on a par with 2024. This has helped compensate for the multi-year drag from the downturn in residential property.\nThe resilience of China’s exports has inflamed trade tensions, with the country’s current account surplus hitting an all-time high last quarter, driven by a record goods trade surplus. It has also underscored the strength and competitiveness of the country’s supply chains, as well as its technological prowess.\nThird, the tech-driven surge in Chinese stocks – the MSCI China index is up more than 30 per cent this year, compared with a 16.5 per cent rise for the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index – has changed the market narrative around China. The property crisis barely gets a mention in equity research reports on China.\n\n\nMorgan Stanley said there had been a shift in the perception of China as “a deflationary/macro-slowdown story towards one of an innovation and hard-core technology breakthrough”. Moreover, the fierceness of the stock market rally has made Beijing reluctant to act more forcefully in the property sector. Policymakers feared the equity market would become “overly inflated if they step up policy support”, Nomura said.\nFourth, most investors are no longer exposed to Chinese real estate, which limits the fallout from Vanke’s financial woes. The wave of defaults and value destruction in the sector has reduced Chinese real estate’s weighting in Asian high-yield, or non-investment grade, corporate bond indices.\nWhile Chinese developers accounted for 35 per cent of Asia’s high-yield bond index in the second quarter of 2021, their share had fallen to less than 10 per cent by the second quarter of 2024. Furthermore, the default rate of Asian high-yield issuers excluding Chinese developers has historically been lower than in the US high-yield market.\n\nHowever, while the market and policy landscape has changed, households, developers and creditors are suffering the consequences of a renewed intensification of the downturn in the property sector, even in first-tier cities.\nNomura believes Beijing will eventually be forced to introduce more aggressive measures to stabilise the sector, including a stronger focus on destocking. Even so, it admits the “easy-to-implement policies have been used up” and that the timing of more comprehensive measures is “highly uncertain”.\nThe collapse of China’s residential real estate sector has been a long, drawn-out crisis. The lack of pressure from markets and the government’s reluctance to take much more forceful action make it more likely that the crisis will drag on for a long time yet.\n</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>汇丰银行对中国住宅房地产市场的相对乐观观点被认为是市场上最勇敢的判断之一，该行在 2 月份表示，2025 年将标志着这个疲软行业的拐点。汇丰当时表示：“我们早已预见到政府干预、被压抑的需求以及必要的市场修正将推动房地产销售的逐步复苏——而我们现在看到所有这些迹象正在显现。”\n 然而，这些复苏的迹象仅限于一线城市，更多地与新房和二手房价格的轻微下跌有关，而不是房价的明显上涨。此外，今年第一季度末，收缩速度重新加快的迹象已经显现。\n 在 11 月 13 日的一份报告中，汇丰表示 “在复苏后开始出现一些裂痕”，同时 “去库存的速度未能达到我们的预期，主要是由于销售势头减弱”。现实是，根本就没有真正的复苏。即使是中国房地产市场的稳定也证明是难以实现的。这部分解释了为何国有的中国万科——迄今为止最后一个避免违约的大型开发商之一——正处于财务崩溃的边缘。\n11 月 26 日，万科首次提出推迟偿还一笔以人民币计价的债券，导致其部分以美元计价的债券价格跌入困境区域，并加剧了人们对北京是否愿意支持即使是最大的脆弱开发商的担忧。\n 在万科宣布后，标准普尔全球评级表示，未来六个月 “困境重组” 的风险上升，并且万科的债务——包括在 2026 年 5 月之前到期的 114 亿元人民币（16 亿美元）的债务到期墙——由于其流动性疲弱而 “不可持续”。两年前，万科违约的前景会在中国市场引发动荡。现在，跟踪在国内外上市的中国公司的 MSCI 中国指数上周上涨了 2.8%。\n 微不足道的溢出效应显示了自 2021 年房地产危机爆发以来，中国政策和市场环境的变化程度。首先，自 2023 年以来，北京对该行业的政策显著放松，宣布了几轮刺激需求的措施。进一步的宽松，包括对抵押贷款借款人的利率补贴和所得税减免，可能正在酝酿之中。\n\n\n 清理大量未售出和未完成房屋的更全面措施成本高昂且复杂。这些措施与政府将高端制造业作为增长核心驱动力的优先事项相悖。然而，在市场对进一步支持中国房地产市场的预期较低的情况下，汇丰表示，“任何关于政策的消息都被视为好消息”。\n 其次，尽管面临美国总统特朗普的贸易战，出口在今年表现相当良好。摩根士丹利预计，净出口将对今年整体 GDP 增长贡献 1.4 个百分点，与 2024 年持平。这有助于弥补住宅房地产下滑带来的多年来的拖累。\n 中国出口的韧性加剧了贸易紧张局势，国家的经常账户盈余在上个季度创下历史新高，主要是由于创纪录的商品贸易盈余。这也突显了国家供应链的强大和竞争力，以及其技术实力。\n 第三，受科技驱动的中国股市飙升——MSCI 中国指数今年上涨超过 30%，而基准标准普尔 500 指数上涨 16.5%——改变了市场对中国的叙述。房地产危机在关于中国的股票研究报告中几乎没有提及。\n\n\n 摩根士丹利表示，人们对中国的看法已经从 “通缩/宏观放缓故事转变为创新和硬核技术突破的故事”。此外，股市的强劲反弹使得北京不愿在房地产领域采取更强有力的行动。野村证券表示，政策制定者担心如果他们加大政策支持，股市将变得 “过度膨胀”。\n 第四，大多数投资者不再暴露于中国房地产，这限制了万科财务困境的影响。该行业的违约潮和价值破坏减少了中国房地产在亚洲高收益或非投资级公司债券指数中的权重。\n 在 2021 年第二季度，中国开发商占亚洲高收益债券指数的 35%，而到 2024 年第二季度，其份额已降至不到 10%。此外，排除中国开发商的亚洲高收益发行人的违约率历来低于美国高收益市场。\n\n 然而，尽管市场和政策环境发生了变化，家庭、开发商和债权人仍在承受房地产行业再次加剧下滑的后果，即使是在一线城市。\n 野村认为，北京最终将被迫采取更积极的措施来稳定该行业，包括更强的去库存重点。尽管如此，它承认 “易于实施的政策已经用尽”，而更全面措施的时机 “高度不确定”。\n 中国住宅房地产行业的崩溃是一场漫长而拖延的危机。市场缺乏压力以及政府不愿采取更强有力的行动，使得危机更有可能持续很长时间。</p>
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为什么中国万科的债务困境几乎没有在市场上引起波动