<p>（重复之前的栏目，文本没有变化）</p>
<p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p>
<p>伦敦，12 月 1 日（路透社）——中国资助并建设了印度尼西亚的镍工业，在十年内将该国转变为全球最大的镍生产国。</p>
<p>但现在，中国并不确定是否需要这么多镍。中国的电动车制造商正在逐渐转向不含镍的电池。</p>
<p>印度尼西亚从地下开采出的越来越多的镍并不是用于电动车电池工厂，而是进入了伦敦金属交易所的仓库。</p>
<p>全球精炼镍的交易所库存从 2023 年 1 月的 54,000 公吨激增至 366,000 公吨，相当于去年全球使用量的约 10%。</p>
<p>过剩的重量抑制了镍的波动性，镍的价格在 2022 年 LME 交易暂停时达到了顶峰。今年大部分时间价格都在低位徘徊。</p>
<p>印度尼西亚的镍行业仍在增长，因为该国追求成为电动车强国的雄心，但有一个非常现实的风险，即它在一个其最大客户逐渐冷淡的电池金属上押注过多。</p>
<h3>你想要更多镍吗？</h3>
<p>“请多开采镍，” 这是埃隆·马斯克在 2020 年对矿业界的号召。特斯拉（TSLA.O）首席执行官担心，无法满足预计将来自电动车电池行业的爆炸性需求增长。</p>
<p>印度尼西亚及其中国运营商如愿以偿。</p>
<p>该国的矿产产量从 2020 年的 78 万吨激增至 2024 年的 230 万吨。其全球供应份额在同一时期内从 30% 上升至 70%。</p>
<p>中国对印度尼西亚巨型镍储备的第一波投资主要集中在不锈钢上，这仍然是镍的最大消费领域。</p>
<p>大量矿石被运往中国，然后在印度尼西亚于 2020 年禁止出口未加工矿石后，贸易转向镍生铁。</p>
<p>第二波投资则主要集中在镍作为电池金属。受到印度尼西亚政府的鼓励，建设下游加工能力，印度尼西亚的运营商现在生产一系列产品，如镍精矿、混合氢氧化物甚至精炼金属。</p>
<p>大多数中间产品被送往中国，进一步加工成镍硫酸盐，这是一种用于电动车电池的形式。</p>
<h3>电池革命</h3>
<p>这本来是计划。</p>
<p>问题在于，镍在中国电动车制造商中逐渐失宠，他们越来越多地使用不含镍或其他高价原料（如钴）的电池。</p>
<p>磷酸铁锂（LFP）电池已经存在很长时间，但直到最近的共识是，它们无法为除小型城市车辆之外的任何其他用途提供足够的动力。</p>
<p>中国电池制造商如宁德时代（300750.SZ）打破了这一神话，开发出越来越强大的 LFP 产品。该公司最近推出了最新的神行 Pro 电池，具有 758 公里的续航里程和超快充电能力。</p>
<p>LFP 电池比其他电池化学品更便宜、更安全，已经在全球最大的市场——中国市场中占据了主导地位。随着中国电动车制造商加大出口力度，它在全球市场中的份额也在不断增长。</p>
<p>对镍的电池需求仍在上升，但主要是因为全球电动车市场仍在快速扩张。根据咨询公司 Adamas Intelligence 的数据，9 月份每辆新售出车辆所使用的镍量同比仅增长 1%，而锂的增长则为 7%。</p>
<h3>最后救命稻草的市场</h3>
<p>这种电池化学品的转变导致中国加工商从生产镍硫酸盐转向生产可以交付给最后救命稻草市场的精炼金属。</p>
<p>截至 2023 年 8 月，LME 储存系统中没有中国品牌的镍。到 10 月底，数量已达到 173,000 吨，占总担保库存的 70%。</p>
<p>印度尼西亚的金属也直接运往 LME 仓库，上个月注册了 11,300 吨。</p>
<p>不仅仅是 LME。过剩供应也渗透到上海期货交易所的仓库中。40,782 吨的库存是自 2018 年以来的最高水平。</p>
<p>库存的上升使价格保持在生产成本的底线，麦格理银行计算的生产成本约为每吨 15,000 美元。</p>
<p>LME 三个月期金属（CMNI3）甚至难以维持这一水平，11 月份跌至每吨 14,330 美元，为自 4 月以来的最低点。</p>
<h3>大赌注</h3>
<p>印度尼西亚政府已显示出希望减缓其镍行业的快速扩张的迹象。</p>
<p>但没有人告诉其矿工或加工商，仍然大多是中国人。麦格理计算，预计到 2030 年，另一个百万吨的高压酸浸炼油能力将会增加。</p>
<p>除非采取更强有力的刹车，否则该银行预计印度尼西亚的过度生产将导致全球至少五年的过剩。</p>
<p>国际能源署同意这一观点，预计市场将仅在 2030 年以后进入供应赤字。</p>
<p>到那时，LME 仓库中可能会堆积一座镍山。</p>
<p>印度尼西亚正在冒险，赌需求最终会赶上并吸收任何库存过剩。但这最终是一个赌注，即镍将继续作为核心电池原料。</p>
<p>即使如此，这也是一个很大的假设，考虑到电池行业的变化速度，印度尼西亚的镍买家主要将是欧洲或美国而非中国。</p>
<p>镍化学品在西方电动车市场仍占主导地位，而中国最近对 LFP 技术出口的限制则意外地给镍带来了推动。</p>
<p>但西方买家可能会比中国同行更加挑剔环境和碳足迹，这对印度尼西亚的煤电镍行业来说是个问题。</p>
<p>印度尼西亚的镍资源民族主义激励了许多其他矿产资源丰富的国家，希望保留更多增值的资产。</p>
<p>但印尼现在陷入了一种不同类型的资源陷阱，其命运与中国及其对镍电池日益减弱的需求紧密相连。</p>
<p>安迪·霍姆是路透社的专栏作家。所表达的观点仅代表他本人。喜欢这篇专栏吗？请查看路透社开放兴趣（ROI），获取关于市场和金融的发人深省、数据驱动的评论。在 LinkedIn 和 X 上关注 ROI。</p>
<p>印尼镍的激增提升了全球交易所的股票</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4oejUoZ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4oejUoZ"/></p>
<p>印尼镍生产的崛起</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3KjrnFx?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3KjrnFx"/></p>
<p>中国镍正大量涌入伦敦金属交易所的仓库</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ktv0Zt?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ktv0Zt"/></p>
<p>（编辑：简·哈维）</p>
<p>)</p>

宁德时代

<p>中国逐渐放弃镍化学电池的转变正在影响印度尼西亚的镍产业，该产业因中国投资而迅速增长。尽管印度尼西亚雄心勃勃地希望成为电动车（EV）强国，但由于中国制造商更青睐更便宜、更安全的磷酸铁锂（LFP）电池，电动车电池对镍的需求正在下降。这一转变导致镍出现过剩，影响了全球价格和库存。印度尼西亚的持续扩张面临过剩风险，预计到 2030 年之前仅会出现供应短缺</p>

<p>(Repeats earlier column with no changes to the text)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（重复之前的栏目，文本没有变化）</p>
</div><p>By Andy Home</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p>
</div><p>LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - China financed and built Indonesia’s nickel industry, transforming the country into the world’s largest producer in the space of a decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦，12 月 1 日（路透社）——中国资助并建设了印度尼西亚的镍工业，在十年内将该国转变为全球最大的镍生产国。</p>
</div><p>But now China is not so sure it needs all that nickel. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers are pivoting away from nickel-chemistry batteries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但现在，中国并不确定是否需要这么多镍。中国的电动车制造商正在逐渐转向不含镍的电池。</p>
</div><p>Ever more of what Indonesia digs out of the ground is destined not for an EV battery plant but rather a London Metal Exchange warehouse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亚从地下开采出的越来越多的镍并不是用于电动车电池工厂，而是进入了伦敦金属交易所的仓库。</p>
</div><p>Global exchange inventories of refined nickel have ballooned from 54,000 metric tons in January 2023 to 366,000 tons, equivalent to around 10% of global usage last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球精炼镍的交易所库存从 2023 年 1 月的 54,000 公吨激增至 366,000 公吨，相当于去年全球使用量的约 10%。</p>
</div><p>The weight of surplus has tamed nickel’s wildness, which peaked with the suspension of LME trading in 2022. Prices have spent most of this year churning at rock-bottom levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过剩的重量抑制了镍的波动性，镍的价格在 2022 年 LME 交易暂停时达到了顶峰。今年大部分时间价格都在低位徘徊。</p>
</div><p>Indonesia’s nickel sector is still growing as the country pursues its ambition of becoming an EV powerhouse, but there is a very real risk it has bet too much on a battery metal that its biggest customer is growing cold on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亚的镍行业仍在增长，因为该国追求成为电动车强国的雄心，但有一个非常现实的风险，即它在一个其最大客户逐渐冷淡的电池金属上押注过多。</p>
</div><h3>YOU WANT MORE NICKEL?</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>你想要更多镍吗？</h3>
</div><p>“Please mine more nickel,” was Elon Musk’s rallying call to the mining industry back in 2020. The head of Tesla (TSLA.O) was concerned there wouldn’t be enough of the stuff to meet what was expected to be explosive demand growth from the EV battery sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“请多开采镍，” 这是埃隆·马斯克在 2020 年对矿业界的号召。特斯拉（TSLA.O）首席执行官担心，无法满足预计将来自电动车电池行业的爆炸性需求增长。</p>
</div><p>Indonesia and its Chinese operators duly obliged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亚及其中国运营商如愿以偿。</p>
</div><p>The country’s mined production surged from 780,000 tons in 2020 to 2.3 million tons in 2024. Its share of global supply rose from 30% to 70% over the same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该国的矿产产量从 2020 年的 78 万吨激增至 2024 年的 230 万吨。其全球供应份额在同一时期内从 30% 上升至 70%。</p>
</div><p>The first wave of Chinese investment in Indonesia’s giant nickel reserves was all about stainless steel, still the largest consuming sector for nickel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国对印度尼西亚巨型镍储备的第一波投资主要集中在不锈钢上，这仍然是镍的最大消费领域。</p>
</div><p>Huge amounts of ore were shipped to China and then, when Indonesia banned the export of unprocessed ore in 2020, the trade shifted to nickel pig iron.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大量矿石被运往中国，然后在印度尼西亚于 2020 年禁止出口未加工矿石后，贸易转向镍生铁。</p>
</div><p>The second wave has been all about nickel as a battery metal. Spurred on by the Indonesian government to build downstream processing capacity, Indonesian operators now churn out a range of products such as matte, mixed hydroxide and even refined metal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二波投资则主要集中在镍作为电池金属。受到印度尼西亚政府的鼓励，建设下游加工能力，印度尼西亚的运营商现在生产一系列产品，如镍精矿、混合氢氧化物甚至精炼金属。</p>
</div><p>Most of the intermediates are sent to China for further processing into nickel sulphate, a form that is used in EV batteries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数中间产品被送往中国，进一步加工成镍硫酸盐，这是一种用于电动车电池的形式。</p>
</div><h3>BATTERY REVOLUTION</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>电池革命</h3>
</div><p>Well, that was the plan anyway.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这本来是计划。</p>
</div><p>The problem is that nickel has fallen out of favour with Chinese EV manufacturers, who are increasingly using batteries without any nickel or other high-price inputs such as cobalt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>问题在于，镍在中国电动车制造商中逐渐失宠，他们越来越多地使用不含镍或其他高价原料（如钴）的电池。</p>
</div><p>Lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries have been around for a long time, but the consensus until recently was that they could never deliver enough power for anything other than small run-around city vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>磷酸铁锂（LFP）电池已经存在很长时间，但直到最近的共识是，它们无法为除小型城市车辆之外的任何其他用途提供足够的动力。</p>
</div><p>Chinese battery makers such as CATL (300750.SZ) have shattered that myth, developing ever more powerful LFP products. The company recently unveiled its latest Shenxing Pro battery, which boasts a 758-km driving range and super-fast charging.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国电池制造商如宁德时代（300750.SZ）打破了这一神话，开发出越来越强大的 LFP 产品。该公司最近推出了最新的神行 Pro 电池，具有 758 公里的续航里程和超快充电能力。</p>
</div><p>The LFP battery is cheaper and safer than other battery chemistries and has already grabbed a dominant share of the Chinese market, the world’s largest. As Chinese EV makers ramp up exports, it is also taking a growing slice of the global market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LFP 电池比其他电池化学品更便宜、更安全，已经在全球最大的市场——中国市场中占据了主导地位。随着中国电动车制造商加大出口力度，它在全球市场中的份额也在不断增长。</p>
</div><p>Battery demand for nickel is still rising, but largely because the global EV market is still expanding so fast. In terms of the amount of nickel deployed per newly sold vehicle, usage was up just 1% year-on-year in September, compared with 7% for lithium, according to consultancy Adamas Intelligence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对镍的电池需求仍在上升，但主要是因为全球电动车市场仍在快速扩张。根据咨询公司 Adamas Intelligence 的数据，9 月份每辆新售出车辆所使用的镍量同比仅增长 1%，而锂的增长则为 7%。</p>
</div><h3>MARKETS OF LAST RESORT</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>最后救命稻草的市场</h3>
</div><p>The result of this shift in battery chemistry is Chinese processors switching from producing nickel sulphate to churning out refined metal that can be delivered to the market of last resort.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种电池化学品的转变导致中国加工商从生产镍硫酸盐转向生产可以交付给最后救命稻草市场的精炼金属。</p>
</div><p>There was no Chinese-brand nickel in the LME storage system as recently as August 2023. The tally at the end of October was 173,000 tons, representing 70% of total warranted inventory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2023 年 8 月，LME 储存系统中没有中国品牌的镍。到 10 月底，数量已达到 173,000 吨，占总担保库存的 70%。</p>
</div><p>Indonesian metal has also been shipped straight to LME warehouses, with 11,300 tons registered with the exchange last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亚的金属也直接运往 LME 仓库，上个月注册了 11,300 吨。</p>
</div><p>It’s not just the LME. Excess supply has been seeping into Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses as well. Stocks of 40,782 tons are the highest they’ve been since 2018.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不仅仅是 LME。过剩供应也渗透到上海期货交易所的仓库中。40,782 吨的库存是自 2018 年以来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>Rising inventory is keeping prices pinned to the production-cost floor, calculated at around $15,000 per ton by Macquarie Bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>库存的上升使价格保持在生产成本的底线，麦格理银行计算的生产成本约为每吨 15,000 美元。</p>
</div><p>LME three-month metal (CMNI3) has been struggling to hold even that level, with a November dip to $14,330 per ton, its lowest point since April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LME 三个月期金属（CMNI3）甚至难以维持这一水平，11 月份跌至每吨 14,330 美元，为自 4 月以来的最低点。</p>
</div><h3>BIG BET</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>大赌注</h3>
</div><p>The Indonesian government has shown signs of wanting to slow the breakneck expansion of its nickel sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亚政府已显示出希望减缓其镍行业的快速扩张的迹象。</p>
</div><p>But no-one’s told its miners or processors, still mostly Chinese. Macquarie calculates that another million tons of high-pressure acid-leaching refinery capacity could ramp up by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但没有人告诉其矿工或加工商，仍然大多是中国人。麦格理计算，预计到 2030 年，另一个百万吨的高压酸浸炼油能力将会增加。</p>
</div><p>Unless the brakes are applied more forcefully, the bank expects Indonesian overproduction to result in at least five more years of global oversupply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非采取更强有力的刹车，否则该银行预计印度尼西亚的过度生产将导致全球至少五年的过剩。</p>
</div><p>The International Energy Agency agrees, projecting the market will only move into a supply deficit from 2030 onwards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际能源署同意这一观点，预计市场将仅在 2030 年以后进入供应赤字。</p>
</div><p>By which time, there could be a mountain of nickel sitting in LME warehouses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到那时，LME 仓库中可能会堆积一座镍山。</p>
</div><p>Indonesia is gambling that demand will eventually catch up and absorb any inventory overhang. But it’s ultimately a bet that nickel will remain a core battery input.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亚正在冒险，赌需求最终会赶上并吸收任何库存过剩。但这最终是一个赌注，即镍将继续作为核心电池原料。</p>
</div><p>Even if it does, which is a big assumption given the rate of change in the battery industry, Indonesia’s nickel buyers will be mainly European or American rather than Chinese.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使如此，这也是一个很大的假设，考虑到电池行业的变化速度，印度尼西亚的镍买家主要将是欧洲或美国而非中国。</p>
</div><p>Nickel chemistries are still dominant in Western EV markets and China’s recent restrictions on LFP technology exports have given nickel an unexpected booster.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>镍化学品在西方电动车市场仍占主导地位，而中国最近对 LFP 技术出口的限制则意外地给镍带来了推动。</p>
</div><p>But Western buyers are likely to be much more fussy about environmental and carbon footprint than their Chinese peers, which is a problem for Indonesia’s coal-powered nickel sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但西方买家可能会比中国同行更加挑剔环境和碳足迹，这对印度尼西亚的煤电镍行业来说是个问题。</p>
</div><p>Indonesia’s nickel resource nationalism has inspired many other mineral-rich countries wanting to keep a greater value-added share of their assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亚的镍资源民族主义激励了许多其他矿产资源丰富的国家，希望保留更多增值的资产。</p>
</div><p>But Indonesia is now caught in a resource trap of a different kind, its fortunes inextricably tied to China and its waning appetite for nickel batteries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但印尼现在陷入了一种不同类型的资源陷阱，其命运与中国及其对镍电池日益减弱的需求紧密相连。</p>
</div><p>Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI) for thought-provoking, data-driven commentary on markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, opens new tab and X, opens new tab.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>安迪·霍姆是路透社的专栏作家。所表达的观点仅代表他本人。喜欢这篇专栏吗？请查看路透社开放兴趣（ROI），获取关于市场和金融的发人深省、数据驱动的评论。在 LinkedIn 和 X 上关注 ROI。</p>
</div><p>Indonesian nickel surge lifts global exchange stocks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印尼镍的激增提升了全球交易所的股票</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4oejUoZ" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4oejUoZ"/></p>
<p>The rise and rise of Indonesian nickel production</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印尼镍生产的崛起</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3KjrnFx" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3KjrnFx"/></p>
<p>Chinese nickel is surging into LME warehouses</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国镍正大量涌入伦敦金属交易所的仓库</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ktv0Zt" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ktv0Zt"/></p>
<p>(Editing by Jan Harvey)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（编辑：简·哈维）</p>
</div><p>)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>)</p>
</div>

投资回报率 - 中国推动了印尼的镍业繁荣，但也可能导致其崩溃：安迪·霍姆