<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/20251021_092751_xlVln.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/20251021_092751_xlVln.png"/></p>
<p>日经 225 指数在周二继续承压，市场参与者对日本银行（BoJ）可能加息的暗示作出反应，尽管通胀有所缓和。该指数连续第二天下跌，最低跌至 49,400 日元，较今年最高点低约 6.30%。</p>
<h2>日本银行潜在加息</h2>
<p>日经 225 和东证指数在投资者对日本银行行长上田和夫的声明作出反应时，仍低于今年的最高水平。</p>
<p>在他的声明中，他暗示银行可能会决定加息。这一举动是一些分析师所预期的，值得注意的是，这一决定是在国家通胀放缓的背景下做出的。国家统计局编制的数据指出，整体通胀率从 1 月份的 4.0% 下降至 11 月份的 2.7%。</p>
<p>加息将发生在日元今年持续承压的情况下。美元/日元汇率上涨至 157.88 的高位，比今年最低点上涨超过 12%。因此，加息将是银行提升日元价值的一种方式。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，日本银行的加息将与美联储考虑本月第三次降息相吻合。一些官员暗示，他们将支持本月的降息，理由是劳动力市场的表现，因为失业率已上升至 4.3%。</p>
<p>美联储的降息与日本银行的加息同时发生，将对股市产生影响，因为交易者将解除他们的套利交易。</p>
<h2>近期日本主要股票下跌</h2>
<p>持续的日经 225 指数表现显示，一些知名公司在过去几周内出现下跌。</p>
<p>例如，软银的股价暴跌至 16,000 日元，较今年最高水平下跌 42%。该股票在公司出售其 Nvidia 持股后大幅下跌，并且因大举借款以资助其人工智能计划。</p>
<p>例如，该公司承诺投资高达 400 亿美元于 OpenAI，并通过质押其 Arm 股份筹集了超过 135 亿美元的保证金贷款。</p>
<p>与此同时，其比特币持有量在过去几个月中也大幅下滑，价格从 126,300 美元跌至今天的 85,000 美元。</p>
<p>在周二下跌的其他日经 225 指数公司包括东京电力、古河电工、东邦锌业、太平洋金属、大冢制药、日本制钢所和尼康公司等知名企业。</p>
<p>另一方面，一些关键公司在过去几个月表现良好。例如，顶级日本银行如住友三井银行的股价升至多年高点。三菱 UFJ 金融集团的股票自今年 4 月的最低点上涨了 55%。瑞穗银行的股价跃升至 6,600 日元，创下新高，而 Resona 的股价升至 1,600 日元，为 2007 年以来的最高水平。</p>
<h2>日经 225 指数技术分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Nikkei-225-1024x579.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Nikkei-225-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p>日经 225 指数图表 | 来源：TradingView</p>
<p>日线图显示，日经 225 指数在过去几周承压，从 11 月份的年内最高点 52,627 日元下滑至当前的 49,387 日元。</p>
<p>它已突破自今年 8 月以来连接最低波动的上升趋势线，并保持在 50 日和 100 日指数移动平均线（EMA）之上。</p>
<p>因此，该股票可能会恢复上涨，因为多头目标是 52,626 日元的关键阻力位。只要指数高于上升趋势线，这一前景将保持不变。</p>
<p>文章《日经 225 指数预测：如果日本银行加息，是否值得买入？》首发于 Invezz</p>

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<p>日经 225 指数因日本银行加息的暗示而承压，尽管通胀有所缓解。该指数下跌至 49,400 日元，较年度高点低约 6.30%。软银等关键股票下跌，而三井住友银行等银行股上涨。技术分析表明，如果指数保持在上升趋势线之上，可能会出现反弹，目标阻力位为 52,626 日元</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/20251021_092751_xlVln.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/20251021_092751_xlVln.png"/></p>
<p>The Nikkei 225 Index remained under pressure on Tuesday as market participants reacted to hints that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates, even as inflation moderates. The index dropped for the second consecutive day, reaching a low of ¥49,400, which is ~6.30% below its highest point this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日经 225 指数在周二继续承压，市场参与者对日本银行（BoJ）可能加息的暗示作出反应，尽管通胀有所缓和。该指数连续第二天下跌，最低跌至 49,400 日元，较今年最高点低约 6.30%。</p>
</div><h2>Bank of Japan potential rate hike</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>日本银行潜在加息</h2>
</div><p>The Nikkei 225 and Topix indices remained below their highest levels this year as investors reacted to a statement by Kazuo Ueda, the head of the BoJ.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日经 225 和东证指数在投资者对日本银行行长上田和夫的声明作出反应时，仍低于今年的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>In his statement, he hinted that the bank may decide to hike interest rates. Such a move, which some analysts were expecting, is notable as it comes as the country’s inflation eases. Data compiled by the country’s statistics agency noted that the headline inflation has dropped from 4.0% in January to 2.7% in November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在他的声明中，他暗示银行可能会决定加息。这一举动是一些分析师所预期的，值得注意的是，这一决定是在国家通胀放缓的背景下做出的。国家统计局编制的数据指出，整体通胀率从 1 月份的 4.0% 下降至 11 月份的 2.7%。</p>
</div><p>The rate hike will come as the Japanese yen remains under pressure this year. The USD/JPY exchange rate rose to a high of 157.88, up by over 12% from the lowest point this year. As such, a rate would be a way of the bank boosting the value of the yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加息将发生在日元今年持续承压的情况下。美元/日元汇率上涨至 157.88 的高位，比今年最低点上涨超过 12%。因此，加息将是银行提升日元价值的一种方式。</p>
</div><p>Most notably, the BoJ rate hike will come as the Federal Reserve considers cutting interest rates for the third time this month. Some officials have hinted that they will support rate cuts this month, citing the performance of the labor market as the unemployment rate has jumped to 4.3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，日本银行的加息将与美联储考虑本月第三次降息相吻合。一些官员暗示，他们将支持本月的降息，理由是劳动力市场的表现，因为失业率已上升至 4.3%。</p>
</div><p>A Federal Reserve interest rate cut coinciding with the Bank of Japan rate hike will have an impact on the stock market as traders unwind their carry trades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储的降息与日本银行的加息同时发生，将对股市产生影响，因为交易者将解除他们的套利交易。</p>
</div><h2>Key Japanese stocks have slumped recently</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>近期日本主要股票下跌</h2>
</div><p>The ongoing Nikkei 225 Index performance shows that some notable companies have slumped in the past few weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>持续的日经 225 指数表现显示，一些知名公司在过去几周内出现下跌。</p>
</div><p>For example, the Softbank stock price has crashed to ¥16,000, down by 42% from its highest level this year. The stock has plunged after the company sold its Nvidia holdingsand as it borrowed heavily to fund its AI ambitions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，软银的股价暴跌至 16,000 日元，较今年最高水平下跌 42%。该股票在公司出售其 Nvidia 持股后大幅下跌，并且因大举借款以资助其人工智能计划。</p>
</div><p>For example, the company committed to invest up to $40 billion in OpenAI, and has raised a margin loan worth over $13.5 billion by pledging its Arm shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，该公司承诺投资高达 400 亿美元于 OpenAI，并通过质押其 Arm 股份筹集了超过 135 亿美元的保证金贷款。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, its Bitcoin holdings have slumped in the past few months as the coin has dropped from $126,300 to $85,000 today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，其比特币持有量在过去几个月中也大幅下滑，价格从 126,300 美元跌至今天的 85,000 美元。</p>
</div><p>Other Nikkei 225 Index companies that slumped on Tuesday were popular names like Tokyo Electric Power, Furukawa, Toho Zinc, Pacific Metals, Daiichi Sankyo, Japan Steel Works, and Nikon Corporation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周二下跌的其他日经 225 指数公司包括东京电力、古河电工、东邦锌业、太平洋金属、大冢制药、日本制钢所和尼康公司等知名企业。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, some key companies have done well in the past few months. For example, top Japanese banks like Sumitomo Mitsui Banking rose to a multi-year high. MUFG stock has jumped by 55% from its lowest level in April this year. Mizuho stock jumped to ¥6,600, a record high, while Resona rose to ¥1,600, its highest level since 2007.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，一些关键公司在过去几个月表现良好。例如，顶级日本银行如住友三井银行的股价升至多年高点。三菱 UFJ 金融集团的股票自今年 4 月的最低点上涨了 55%。瑞穗银行的股价跃升至 6,600 日元，创下新高，而 Resona 的股价升至 1,600 日元，为 2007 年以来的最高水平。</p>
</div><h2>Nikkei 225 Index technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>日经 225 指数技术分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Nikkei-225-1024x579.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Nikkei-225-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p>Nikkei 225 Index chart | Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日经 225 指数图表 | 来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>The daily timeframe chart shows that the Nikkei 225 Index has come under pressure in the past few weeks, moving from the year-to-date high of ¥52,627 in November to the current ¥49,387.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日线图显示，日经 225 指数在过去几周承压，从 11 月份的年内最高点 52,627 日元下滑至当前的 49,387 日元。</p>
</div><p>It has moved above the ascending trendline that connects the lowest swings since August this year. It has remained above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它已突破自今年 8 月以来连接最低波动的上升趋势线，并保持在 50 日和 100 日指数移动平均线（EMA）之上。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the stock will likely resume rising as bulls target the key resistance level at ¥52,626. This outlook will remain as long as the index is above the ascending trendline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，该股票可能会恢复上涨，因为多头目标是 52,626 日元的关键阻力位。只要指数高于上升趋势线，这一前景将保持不变。</p>
</div><p>The post Nikkei 225 Index forecast: Is it a buy if BoJ hikes rates? appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>文章《日经 225 指数预测：如果日本银行加息，是否值得买入？》首发于 Invezz</p>
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日经 225 指数预测：如果日本央行加息，是否是买入的好时机？