<p>第 1 页，共 5 页</p>
<p>萨克索银行的展望在金融行业中享有一定的追随者，原因很充分：这家丹麦数字银行的专家以其大胆的预测而闻名——今年他们再次如此。</p>
<p>萨克索的«离谱预测»并不是官方市场观点或预测。相反，它们强调了低概率、高影响的事件，如果这些事件发生，将对全球市场产生冲击。</p>
<p><strong>瑞士情景首次出现</strong></p>
<p>有时候，走出舒适区，思考看似不可能的事情是好的，<strong>Ole S. Hansen</strong>（商品策略负责人）在最近的苏黎世媒体活动中表示：«尽管这些预测并不是为了正确，但它们旨在挑战现有叙事。也许在 2026 年，平静的水域将成为新的非凡。»</p>
<p>他们并不总是错误的。在 2022 年，萨克索预测黄金将翻倍——这在两年后实现了。该机构还正确预测了英伟达的市值将超过苹果（2025 年）。而在 2017 年，分析师们正确预测比特币将产生巨大的利润跃升。</p>
<p>今年，瑞士首次出现了两个情景。</p>
<p><strong>1. Q 日震撼加密货币和全球金融系统</strong></p>
<hr/>
<p>在 2026 年，安全专家们担心多年的事情发生了：一台功能齐全的量子计算机突破了今天的常见加密标准。从一天到另一天，没有任何数字锁被认为是安全的——无论是电子邮件、银行转账还是加密钱包。市场恐慌：比特币崩溃至接近零；黄金飙升至近 10,000 美元。</p>
<p>中央银行启动紧急设施，监管机构实施全球«维护周末»以重新保障数字金融基础设施。赢家：拥有现金访问的传统银行、实体金库提供商和新的网络安全冠军。输家：公共加密货币和热钱包交易所。</p>
<p><strong>2. Swift–Kelce：名人婚礼盛况推动全球增长</strong></p>
<hr/>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.finews.com/images/news/2025/12/saxo_taylor_.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.finews.com/images/news/2025/12/saxo_taylor_.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>泰勒·斯威夫特。（图片来源：Shutterstock）</em></p>
<p><strong>泰勒·斯威夫特</strong> 和 <strong>特拉维斯·凯尔西</strong> 在一个私人加勒比海岛上结婚，触发了社会的多米诺效应。该夫妇决定大幅减少社交媒体的使用，拥抱以家庭为导向的离线世界，这一决定在全球范围内被模仿。</p>
<p>结婚和出生率明显上升，千禧一代和 Z 世代创造新的生活空间，购买房屋并进行装修——为全球经济带来可衡量的动力。国际货币基金组织将全球经济的增长预测上调超过一个百分点。然而，社交媒体平台却失去了用户时间和增长动力。华尔街迅速谈论«Swiftie Put»。</p>

<p>Saxo Bank 对 2026 年的 “离谱预测” 包括量子计算机破解加密技术，导致比特币崩溃和黄金飙升，以及泰勒·斯威夫特与特拉维斯·凯尔茨的婚礼推动全球经济增长。这些以大胆著称的预测旨在挑战现有叙述，并突出潜在的市场冲击波</p>

<p>Page 1 of 5</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第 1 页，共 5 页</p>
</div><p>Saxo Bank’s outlook enjoys something of a cult following in the financial industry. For good reason: the Danish digital bank’s experts are known for venturing far out on a limb with their forecasts — as they have again this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>萨克索银行的展望在金融行业中享有一定的追随者，原因很充分：这家丹麦数字银行的专家以其大胆的预测而闻名——今年他们再次如此。</p>
</div><p>Saxo's «Outrageous Predictions» are not an official market view or forecast. Rather, they highlight low-probability, high-impact events that could send shockwaves through global markets if they were to materialize.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>萨克索的«离谱预测»并不是官方市场观点或预测。相反，它们强调了低概率、高影响的事件，如果这些事件发生，将对全球市场产生冲击。</p>
</div><p><strong>Switzerland Scenarios for the First Time</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>瑞士情景首次出现</strong></p>
</div><p>Sometimes it’s good to step out of your comfort zone and think the seemingly impossible, said <strong>Ole S. Hansen</strong>, Head of Commodity Strategy, at a recent media event in Zurich: «Even though these predictions aren’t about being right, they are meant to challenge prevailing narratives. Perhaps in 2026 calm waters will be the new extraordinary.»</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有时候，走出舒适区，思考看似不可能的事情是好的，<strong>Ole S. Hansen</strong>（商品策略负责人）在最近的苏黎世媒体活动中表示：«尽管这些预测并不是为了正确，但它们旨在挑战现有叙事。也许在 2026 年，平静的水域将成为新的非凡。»</p>
</div><p>They are not always wrong. In 2022, Saxo predicted that gold would double — which happened two years later. The institution was also correct in forecasting that Nvidia would surpass Apple in market capitalization (2025). And back in 2017, analysts were right to predict that Bitcoin would generate enormous profit leaps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们并不总是错误的。在 2022 年，萨克索预测黄金将翻倍——这在两年后实现了。该机构还正确预测了英伟达的市值将超过苹果（2025 年）。而在 2017 年，分析师们正确预测比特币将产生巨大的利润跃升。</p>
</div><p>This year, for the first time, there are also two scenarios for Switzerland.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年，瑞士首次出现了两个情景。</p>
</div><p><strong>1. Q-Day Shakes Cryptos and the Global Financial System</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>1. Q 日震撼加密货币和全球金融系统</strong></p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p>In 2026, what security experts have feared for years happens: a functioning quantum computer breaks today’s common encryption standards. From one day to the next, no digital lock is considered secure — not emails, bank transfers, or crypto wallets. Markets panic: Bitcoin collapses toward zero; gold surges to nearly 10,000 dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2026 年，安全专家们担心多年的事情发生了：一台功能齐全的量子计算机突破了今天的常见加密标准。从一天到另一天，没有任何数字锁被认为是安全的——无论是电子邮件、银行转账还是加密钱包。市场恐慌：比特币崩溃至接近零；黄金飙升至近 10,000 美元。</p>
</div><p>Central banks activate emergency facilities, regulators impose a worldwide«Maintenance Weekend» to secure the digital financial infrastructure anew. Winners: traditional banks with cash access, physical vault providers, and new cybersecurity champions. Losers: public cryptocurrencies and hot-wallet exchanges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中央银行启动紧急设施，监管机构实施全球«维护周末»以重新保障数字金融基础设施。赢家：拥有现金访问的传统银行、实体金库提供商和新的网络安全冠军。输家：公共加密货币和热钱包交易所。</p>
</div><p><strong>2. Swift–Kelce: A Celebrity Wedding Spectacle Fuels Global Growth</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>2. Swift–Kelce：名人婚礼盛况推动全球增长</strong></p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.finews.com/images/news/2025/12/saxo_taylor_.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://www.finews.com/images/news/2025/12/saxo_taylor_.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Taylor Swift. (Image: Shutterstock)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>泰勒·斯威夫特。（图片来源：Shutterstock）</em></p>
</div><p><strong>Taylor Swift</strong> and <strong>Travis Kelce</strong> tie the knot on a private Caribbean island, triggering a societal domino effect. The couple’s decision to largely withdraw from social media and embrace a family-oriented offline world is imitated globally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>泰勒·斯威夫特</strong> 和 <strong>特拉维斯·凯尔西</strong> 在一个私人加勒比海岛上结婚，触发了社会的多米诺效应。该夫妇决定大幅减少社交媒体的使用，拥抱以家庭为导向的离线世界，这一决定在全球范围内被模仿。</p>
</div><p>Marriage and birth rates rise noticeably, Millennials and Gen Z create new living space, buy homes, furnish them — giving measurable momentum to the global economy. The International Monetary Fund raises its growth forecast for the world economy by more than one percentage point. Social-media platforms, however, lose user time and growth momentum. Wall Street quickly talks about the«Swiftie Put».</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结婚和出生率明显上升，千禧一代和 Z 世代创造新的生活空间，购买房屋并进行装修——为全球经济带来可衡量的动力。国际货币基金组织将全球经济的增长预测上调超过一个百分点。然而，社交媒体平台却失去了用户时间和增长动力。华尔街迅速谈论«Swiftie Put»。</p>
</div>

AI 首席执行官，Swiftie 热潮，黄金元：盛宝银行对 2026 年的大胆预测