<p>ZCash 在加密市场相对大盘资产中价格表现极为突出。它的上涨始于九月份，随着隐私叙事的升温而加速。十月份的涨势愈发强劲。</p>
<p>从九月份的低点 38.69 美元到十一月份的高点 750 美元，这一轮涨幅高达 1,838.5%。在不到 10 周的时间里，这相当于 18 倍的回报。</p>
<p>十一月第一周的高峰，加上市场普遍情绪的下滑和比特币 [BTC] 失去 10 万美元的支撑，可能结束了 Zcash[ZEC] 的牛市。</p>
<p>从技术角度来看，可以认为这只是一个回调阶段。</p>
<p>AMBCrypto 在十一月的一份报告中强调了在 100% 斐波那契扩展水平上获利了结的重要性。这些水平是基于之前周期的波动点绘制的。</p>
<p>过去两周价格下跌 53% 验证了之前的预测。接下来会发生什么？</p>
<h2>长期结构与短期看跌</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ZCash-1-day-Chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ZCash-1-day-Chart.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView 上的 ZEC/USDT</p>
<p>1 天时间框架内出现了向看跌的内部转变。</p>
<p>470 美元的高低点在近十天前被突破。最近跌破 424 美元的波动低点，突显了回调阶段的开始。这也警告了潜在的下行趋势。</p>
<p>然而，当前上涨的斐波那契回调水平支持了涨势尚未结束的观点。78.6% 的回调水平尚未被突破。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ZCash-1-hour-Chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ZCash-1-hour-Chart.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView 上的 ZEC/USDT</p>
<p>小时图未显示出大幅反弹的潜力。在这里，结构同样看跌。400-420 美元区域存在不平衡，可能作为供应区。</p>
<h2>ZCash：拼凑技术面</h2>
<p>在这两个时间框架中，MFI 显示空头占据主导地位。动量和资金流向对卖方有利。日线图显示 MFI 在最近几天转向看跌，跌破 20。</p>
<p>小时图显示 ZCash 很可能会很快经历更多损失。</p>
<p>日线图上的 OBV 并未出现大幅下滑，但在小时时间框架上正在下滑。这支持了回调阶段的论点。</p>
<h2>关键支撑和阻力水平</h2>
<p>400-420 美元是一个强短期阻力位。315-321 美元的支撑正在被捍卫，但很可能很快会失守。若日线收盘低于 315 美元，将是卖出的信号。</p>
<p>预计将滑落至下一个斐波那契回调支撑位 197 美元。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最后思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>交易者可以基于斐波那契回调水平和 200 美元水平的重要性，保持长期看涨的观点。</em></li>
<li><em>投资者在比特币似乎正在转向熊市的时刻，必须谨慎持有 ZEC。</em></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>免责声明：所提供的信息不构成财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议，仅代表作者的观点</strong></p>

<p>ZCash 在两周内经历了 53% 的剧烈价格下跌，此前曾出现爆炸性的反弹。此次下跌被视为回调阶段，技术指标显示可能会进一步下跌。关键阻力位在 400 美元至 420 美元之间，而 315 美元至 321 美元的支撑位面临威胁。若跌破 315 美元，可能会出现更多抛售，潜在支撑位在 197 美元。交易者可能会保持长期看涨的观点，但在比特币的熊市转变中需保持谨慎</p>

<p>ZCash has been an extreme outlier in price performance among the relatively large-cap assets in the crypto market. Its run began in September, as the privacy narrative gathered steam. The rally intensified in October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ZCash 在加密市场相对大盘资产中价格表现极为突出。它的上涨始于九月份，随着隐私叙事的升温而加速。十月份的涨势愈发强劲。</p>
</div><p>Measured from September’s low at $38.69 to the November high of $750, the rally was a whopping 1,838.5%. This was an 18-fold return in under 10 weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从九月份的低点 38.69 美元到十一月份的高点 750 美元，这一轮涨幅高达 1,838.5%。在不到 10 周的时间里，这相当于 18 倍的回报。</p>
</div><p>The peak in the first week of November, combined with the market-wide sentiment slump and Bitcoin’s [BTC] loss of the $100k level, might have ended Zcash’s [ZEC] bull run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十一月第一周的高峰，加上市场普遍情绪的下滑和比特币 [BTC] 失去 10 万美元的支撑，可能结束了 Zcash[ZEC] 的牛市。</p>
</div><p>From a technical perspective, it can be argued that this was only a retracement phase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从技术角度来看，可以认为这只是一个回调阶段。</p>
</div><p>An AMBCrypto report from November stressed the importance of profit-taking at the 100% Fibonacci extension level. Those levels were plotted based on the previous cycle’s swing points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMBCrypto 在十一月的一份报告中强调了在 100% 斐波那契扩展水平上获利了结的重要性。这些水平是基于之前周期的波动点绘制的。</p>
</div><p>A 53% price drop in the past fortnight vindicated the earlier predictions. What can come next?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去两周价格下跌 53% 验证了之前的预测。接下来会发生什么？</p>
</div><h2>Long-term structure vs. short-term bearishness</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>长期结构与短期看跌</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ZCash-1-day-Chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ZCash-1-day-Chart.png"/></p>
<p>Source: ZEC/USDT on TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView 上的 ZEC/USDT</p>
</div><p>The 1-day timeframe saw an internal shift towards bearishness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1 天时间框架内出现了向看跌的内部转变。</p>
</div><p>The higher low at $470 was breached nearly ten days ago. The recent downturn below the swing low at $424 highlighted the onset of the retracement phase. It also warned of a potential downtrend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>470 美元的高低点在近十天前被突破。最近跌破 424 美元的波动低点，突显了回调阶段的开始。这也警告了潜在的下行趋势。</p>
</div><p>However, the Fibonacci retracement levels of the current run supported the idea that the rally was not over. The 78.6% retracement level has not been breached yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，当前上涨的斐波那契回调水平支持了涨势尚未结束的观点。78.6% 的回调水平尚未被突破。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ZCash-1-hour-Chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ZCash-1-hour-Chart.png"/></p>
<p>Source: ZEC/USDT on TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView 上的 ZEC/USDT</p>
</div><p>The hourly chart did not show potential for a sizeable bounce. Here, too, the structure was bearish. The $400-$420 region had an imbalance and can act as a supply zone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>小时图未显示出大幅反弹的潜力。在这里，结构同样看跌。400-420 美元区域存在不平衡，可能作为供应区。</p>
</div><h2>ZCash: Piecing together the technicals</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>ZCash：拼凑技术面</h2>
</div><p>In both the timeframes, the MFI showed bears were in control. Momentum and capital flow were in favor of the sellers. The daily chart showed the MFI shift to bearishness in recent days, with a drop below 20.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这两个时间框架中，MFI 显示空头占据主导地位。动量和资金流向对卖方有利。日线图显示 MFI 在最近几天转向看跌，跌破 20。</p>
</div><p>The hourly chart showed that ZCash was highly likely to experience more losses soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>小时图显示 ZCash 很可能会很快经历更多损失。</p>
</div><p>The OBV was not in a sizeable slump on the daily chart, but it was sliding lower on the hourly timeframe. This supported the retracement phase argument.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日线图上的 OBV 并未出现大幅下滑，但在小时时间框架上正在下滑。这支持了回调阶段的论点。</p>
</div><h2>Key support and resistance levels</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关键支撑和阻力水平</h2>
</div><p>The $400-$420 was a strong short-term resistance. The $315-$321 support is being defended, but is likely to be lost soon. A daily session close below $315 would be a signal to sell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>400-420 美元是一个强短期阻力位。315-321 美元的支撑正在被捍卫，但很可能很快会失守。若日线收盘低于 315 美元，将是卖出的信号。</p>
</div><p>A slide to the next Fibonacci retracement support at $197 can be expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计将滑落至下一个斐波那契回调支撑位 197 美元。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最后思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Traders can maintain a long-term bullish outlook, based on the Fibonacci retracement levels and the importance of the $200 level.</em></li>
<li><em>Investors must be careful holding on to ZEC at a time when Bitcoin seems to be transitioning to a bear market.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>交易者可以基于斐波那契回调水平和 200 美元水平的重要性，保持长期看涨的观点。</em></li>
<li><em>投资者在比特币似乎正在转向熊市的时刻，必须谨慎持有 ZEC。</em></li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>免责声明：所提供的信息不构成财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议，仅代表作者的观点</strong></p>
</div>

ZCash 在两周内暴跌 53%——这是否意味着一个爆炸性周期的结束？