<ul>
<li>想知道 TJX Companies 在经历了长时间的上涨后是否仍然是一个便宜的投资，或者大部分轻松获利的机会是否已经消失？这份分析将帮助你判断当前价格是否真的与价值相符。</li>
<li>过去一周，该股下跌了约 1.6%，但这是在过去一个月上涨 7.1% 和年初至今强劲回报 23.8% 的基础上发生的，过去一年回报为 21.7%，三年回报接近 97.1%，五年回报为 147.0%。</li>
<li>最近的头条新闻突显了 TJX 在折扣零售领域的持续韧性，以及其在消费者支出模式变化时吸引注重价值的购物者的能力。这进一步强化了该商业模式适应波动经济环境的观点。投资者正在关注 TJX 如何在更广泛的零售趋势演变中平衡客流增长、商品销售和库存管理。</li>
<li>尽管如此，TJX 在我们的估值检查中目前仅得分 0/6，这可能会让只关注股价图表的人感到惊讶。在接下来的部分中，我们将解析不同的估值方法对该股的看法，并在文章结束时暗示一种更为稳健的思考其公允价值的方法。</li>
</ul>
<p>TJX Companies 在我们的估值检查中仅得分 0/6。查看我们在完整估值分析中发现的其他警示信号。</p>
<h3>方法 1：TJX Companies 折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
<p>折现现金流模型通过预测企业未来能够产生的现金流，并将这些现金流折现回今天，来估算企业的价值。对于 TJX Companies，该模型采用基于现金流预测和长期增长衰退的两阶段自由现金流到股东的方式。</p>
<p>TJX 在过去十二个月产生了约 44.9 亿美元的自由现金流，分析师预计这一数字将逐渐上升，Simply Wall St 在初始分析师预测的基础上进行了外推。到 2030 年，自由现金流预计将达到约 65.5 亿美元，2026 年至 2035 年之间的中间年度预测也将纳入计算。这些未来现金流被折现回现值，以估算今天的股权价值。</p>
<p>基于此，DCF 模型得出的内在价值约为每股 101.05 美元。与当前股价相比，这意味着该股大约被高估 48.5%，表明预期的现金流增长已经在价格中反映出来。</p>
<p><strong>结果：被高估</strong></p>
<p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明，TJX Companies 可能被高估 48.5%。发现 935 只被低估的股票，或创建自己的筛选器以寻找更好的价值机会。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/dcf?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1706" height="760" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 TJX 折现现金流</p>
<p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出 TJX Companies 的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
<h3>方法 2：TJX Companies 市盈率对比</h3>
<p>对于像 TJX 这样的盈利公司，市盈率（PE）是衡量投资者是否为每一美元的当前收益支付合理价格的有用方式。一般来说，增长更强、风险感知较低的企业可以合理化更高的市盈率，而增长缓慢或风险较高的公司则往往以较低的倍数交易。</p>
<p>TJX 当前的市盈率约为 32.6 倍，远高于专业零售行业平均的约 18.1 倍和更广泛的同行平均的约 20.2 倍。Simply Wall St 进一步使用其专有的公允比率，估算市场可能会根据 TJX 的收益增长特征、利润率、规模、行业和风险因素通常赋予 TJX 的市盈率。对于 TJX，该公允比率约为 22.1 倍，明显低于当前股票交易的水平。由于该公允比率是针对公司量身定制的，因此提供了比简单的同行或行业比较更细致的基准。</p>
<p>将公允比率 22.1 倍与实际市盈率 32.6 倍进行比较，表明该股的交易价格高于其基本面所能合理化的水平。</p>
<p><strong>结果：被高估</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1640" height="650" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NYSE:TJX 市盈率</p>
<p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1441 家内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长的公司。</p>
<h3>提升你的决策能力：选择你的 TJX Companies 故事</h3>
<p>我们之前提到过，还有一种更好的理解估值的方法，因此让我们向你介绍叙事，这是一种将你对 TJX Companies 故事的看法与其未来收入、收益、利润率和公允价值背后的数字联系起来的简单方式。</p>
<p>叙事是你自己的投资故事，你阐述你认为将推动 TJX 客流、门店增长和盈利能力的因素，然后将这些信念与具体的财务预测和公允价值估算联系起来，而不是仅仅依赖静态倍数。</p>
<p>在 Simply Wall St，叙事存在于社区页面，旨在易于使用。它们旨在帮助投资者将自己的叙事公允价值与当前市场价格进行比较，并在新的收益、指导或新闻流入时自动更新。</p>
<p>例如，一个 TJX 的叙事可能是谨慎的，如果你认为增长和利润率将减弱，则假设公允价值接近每股 90 美元。另一个更乐观的叙事可能会在你相信全球扩张、强劲的折扣需求和利润率改善将持续较长时间的情况下，合理化接近每股 164 美元的公允价值。</p>
<p>你认为 TJX Companies 的故事还有更多内容吗？前往我们的社区看看其他人怎么说！</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/community-fair-value?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/community-fair-value"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NYSE:TJX 社区公允价值</p>
<p><em>这篇来自 Simply Wall St 的文章是一般性的。<strong>我们仅基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，采用无偏见的方法，我们的文章不应被视为财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中没有持仓。</em></p>

TJX零售

<p>本文评估了 TJX 公司的股票，质疑其在强劲的多年增长后当前的价值。尽管折扣零售的势头依然强劲，但根据贴现现金流（DCF）和市盈率（PE）分析，TJX 被认为是高估的。DCF 模型显示其高估幅度为 48.5%，而市盈率则表明其相较于行业平均水平存在溢价。建议投资者考虑将 TJX 的增长和盈利能力与其估值联系起来的叙述</p>

<ul>
<li>Wondering if TJX Companies is still a bargain after its long run, or if most of the easy money has already been made? This breakdown will help you decide whether the current price really matches the value.</li>
<li>The stock has slipped about 1.6% over the last week, but that comes after a solid 7.1% gain in the past month and strong longer term returns of 23.8% year to date and 21.7% over the last year, with almost 97.1% over three years and 147.0% over five years.</li>
<li>Recent headlines have highlighted TJX's continued resilience in off price retail and its ability to draw value focused shoppers even as consumer spending patterns shift. This reinforces the idea that the business model is built for choppy economic conditions. Investors are watching how TJX balances traffic growth, merchandising, and inventory discipline as broader retail trends evolve.</li>
<li>Despite that strength, TJX currently scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks, which might surprise anyone looking only at the share price chart. In the next sections we will unpack what different valuation approaches say about the stock and hint at an even more robust way to think about its fair value by the end of the article.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>想知道 TJX Companies 在经历了长时间的上涨后是否仍然是一个便宜的投资，或者大部分轻松获利的机会是否已经消失？这份分析将帮助你判断当前价格是否真的与价值相符。</li>
<li>过去一周，该股下跌了约 1.6%，但这是在过去一个月上涨 7.1% 和年初至今强劲回报 23.8% 的基础上发生的，过去一年回报为 21.7%，三年回报接近 97.1%，五年回报为 147.0%。</li>
<li>最近的头条新闻突显了 TJX 在折扣零售领域的持续韧性，以及其在消费者支出模式变化时吸引注重价值的购物者的能力。这进一步强化了该商业模式适应波动经济环境的观点。投资者正在关注 TJX 如何在更广泛的零售趋势演变中平衡客流增长、商品销售和库存管理。</li>
<li>尽管如此，TJX 在我们的估值检查中目前仅得分 0/6，这可能会让只关注股价图表的人感到惊讶。在接下来的部分中，我们将解析不同的估值方法对该股的看法，并在文章结束时暗示一种更为稳健的思考其公允价值的方法。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>TJX Companies scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TJX Companies 在我们的估值检查中仅得分 0/6。查看我们在完整估值分析中发现的其他警示信号。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 1: TJX Companies Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法 1：TJX Companies 折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
</div><p>A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back to today. For TJX Companies, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections and a longer term fade in growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>折现现金流模型通过预测企业未来能够产生的现金流，并将这些现金流折现回今天，来估算企业的价值。对于 TJX Companies，该模型采用基于现金流预测和长期增长衰退的两阶段自由现金流到股东的方式。</p>
</div><p>TJX generated trailing twelve month free cash flow of about $4.49 billion, and analysts expect this to rise gradually over time, with Simply Wall St extrapolating beyond the initial analyst horizon. By 2030, free cash flow is projected to reach roughly $6.55 billion, with intermediate yearly forecasts between 2026 and 2035 also feeding into the calculation. These future cash flows are discounted back to a present value in $ to estimate what the equity is worth today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TJX 在过去十二个月产生了约 44.9 亿美元的自由现金流，分析师预计这一数字将逐渐上升，Simply Wall St 在初始分析师预测的基础上进行了外推。到 2030 年，自由现金流预计将达到约 65.5 亿美元，2026 年至 2035 年之间的中间年度预测也将纳入计算。这些未来现金流被折现回现值，以估算今天的股权价值。</p>
</div><p>On this basis, the DCF model arrives at an intrinsic value of about $101.05 per share. Compared with the current share price, this implies the stock is roughly 48.5% overvalued, indicating that much of the anticipated cash flow growth already appears to be reflected in the price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于此，DCF 模型得出的内在价值约为每股 101.05 美元。与当前股价相比，这意味着该股大约被高估 48.5%，表明预期的现金流增长已经在价格中反映出来。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: OVERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：被高估</strong></p>
</div><p>Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests TJX Companies may be overvalued by 48.5%. Discover 935 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明，TJX Companies 可能被高估 48.5%。发现 935 只被低估的股票，或创建自己的筛选器以寻找更好的价值机会。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/dcf" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>TJX Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 TJX 折现现金流</p>
</div><p>Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for TJX Companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出 TJX Companies 的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 2: TJX Companies Price vs Earnings</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法 2：TJX Companies 市盈率对比</h3>
</div><p>For profitable companies like TJX, the price to earnings (PE) ratio is a useful way to gauge whether investors are paying a reasonable price for each dollar of current earnings. In general, businesses with stronger, more reliable growth and lower perceived risk can justify a higher PE, while slower growing or riskier names tend to trade on lower multiples.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于像 TJX 这样的盈利公司，市盈率（PE）是衡量投资者是否为每一美元的当前收益支付合理价格的有用方式。一般来说，增长更强、风险感知较低的企业可以合理化更高的市盈率，而增长缓慢或风险较高的公司则往往以较低的倍数交易。</p>
</div><p>TJX currently trades on a PE of about 32.6x, which is well above both the Specialty Retail industry average of roughly 18.1x and the broader peer group average of around 20.2x. Simply Wall St goes a step further with its proprietary Fair Ratio, which estimates what PE the market might typically assign to TJX given its earnings growth profile, margins, size, industry and risk factors. For TJX, that Fair Ratio comes out at about 22.1x, notably below where the shares trade today. Because this Fair Ratio is tailored to the company, it offers a more nuanced benchmark than simple peer or industry comparisons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TJX 当前的市盈率约为 32.6 倍，远高于专业零售行业平均的约 18.1 倍和更广泛的同行平均的约 20.2 倍。Simply Wall St 进一步使用其专有的公允比率，估算市场可能会根据 TJX 的收益增长特征、利润率、规模、行业和风险因素通常赋予 TJX 的市盈率。对于 TJX，该公允比率约为 22.1 倍，明显低于当前股票交易的水平。由于该公允比率是针对公司量身定制的，因此提供了比简单的同行或行业比较更细致的基准。</p>
</div><p>Comparing the Fair Ratio of 22.1x with the actual PE of 32.6x suggests the stock is trading at a premium to what its fundamentals justify.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>将公允比率 22.1 倍与实际市盈率 32.6 倍进行比较，表明该股的交易价格高于其基本面所能合理化的水平。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: OVERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：被高估</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>NYSE:TJX PE Ratio as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NYSE:TJX 市盈率</p>
</div><p>PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1441 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1441 家内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长的公司。</p>
</div><h3>Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your TJX Companies Narrative</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>提升你的决策能力：选择你的 TJX Companies 故事</h3>
</div><p>Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of the TJX Companies story with the numbers behind its future revenue, earnings, margins and fair value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们之前提到过，还有一种更好的理解估值的方法，因此让我们向你介绍叙事，这是一种将你对 TJX Companies 故事的看法与其未来收入、收益、利润率和公允价值背后的数字联系起来的简单方式。</p>
</div><p>A Narrative is your own investment storyline, where you spell out what you think will drive TJX traffic, store growth and profitability, then link those beliefs to a concrete financial forecast and a fair value estimate instead of relying only on static multiples.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>叙事是你自己的投资故事，你阐述你认为将推动 TJX 客流、门店增长和盈利能力的因素，然后将这些信念与具体的财务预测和公允价值估算联系起来，而不是仅仅依赖静态倍数。</p>
</div><p>On Simply Wall St, Narratives live in the Community page and are designed to be easy to use. They aim to help investors compare their Narrative Fair Value to the current market price, and then automatically update as new earnings, guidance or news flows in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Simply Wall St，叙事存在于社区页面，旨在易于使用。它们旨在帮助投资者将自己的叙事公允价值与当前市场价格进行比较，并在新的收益、指导或新闻流入时自动更新。</p>
</div><p>For example, one TJX Narrative might be cautious, assuming a fair value closer to about $90 per share if you think growth and margins will fade. Another more optimistic Narrative could justify a fair value near $164 per share if you believe global expansion, strong off-price demand and margin improvements will stay stronger for longer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，一个 TJX 的叙事可能是谨慎的，如果你认为增长和利润率将减弱，则假设公允价值接近每股 90 美元。另一个更乐观的叙事可能会在你相信全球扩张、强劲的折扣需求和利润率改善将持续较长时间的情况下，合理化接近每股 164 美元的公允价值。</p>
</div><p>Do you think there's more to the story for TJX Companies? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你认为 TJX Companies 的故事还有更多内容吗？前往我们的社区看看其他人怎么说！</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/community-fair-value" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/community-fair-value"/></p>
<p>NYSE:TJX Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NYSE:TJX 社区公允价值</p>
</div><p><em>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>这篇来自 Simply Wall St 的文章是一般性的。<strong>我们仅基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，采用无偏见的方法，我们的文章不应被视为财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中没有持仓。</em></p>
</div>

在经历多年强劲增长和坚韧的低价势头后，TJX 是否仍然具有吸引力