<p>作者：Alicia Park，来源：福布斯</p>
<p>原标题：Kalshi 的联合创始人如何从职业芭蕾舞者成为世界上最年轻的自制女亿万富翁</p>
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<p>Kalshi 目前的估值为 110 亿美元，使其两位联合创始人（Luana Lopes Lara 和 Tarek）...</p>
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<p>Luanna Lopez Lara（左）和 Tarek Mansour（右）于 2018 年创立了 Kalshi。</p>
<p>“现在 Kalshi 已经展示了这个市场有多大，许多人都想分一杯羹，” 风险投资基金 Neo 的首席执行官 Ali Patovi 说道，该公司是 Kalshi 的种子投资者。</p>
<p>“现在 Kalshi 已经展示了这个市场有多大，许多人都想分一杯羹，” 风险投资基金 Neo 的首席执行官 Ali Patovi 说道，该公司是 Kalshi 的种子投资者。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7418213_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7418213_image3.png"/></p>
<p>根据公司数据，自七月以来，Kalshi 的名义交易量增加了八倍，十一月达到了 58 亿美元。同时，根据 Dune Analytics 的数据，其主要竞争对手 Polymarket 的交易量自七月以来增长了三倍多，达到了 43 亿美元，估值飙升至 90 亿美元。来自黎巴嫩的 Luana 和 Mansour 在麻省理工学院相识。他们是同一个国际学生圈的成员，修读相似的课程，均主修计算机科学。经历过 2007 年黎巴嫩冲突的 Mansour 自学英语以备考 SAT，他记得 Luana 总是坐在课堂的前排。两人在 Mansour 开始坐在她旁边并向她学习后相识，2018 年他们在纽约市的 Five Rings Capital 获得实习机会后关系更加密切。某个晚上，在返回金融区实习公寓的路上，他们突然想到预测市场交易的想法。“我们看到大多数交易发生在当人们对未来有某种想法时，然后试图找到将其投入市场的方法，” Luana 曾对《福布斯》表示。她补充说，交易者和投资者将外部事件——例如选举结果或自然灾害的可能性——纳入他们的投资决策中。基于 “应该有一种直接交易事件发生概率的方法，而不是通过传统金融市场间接交易” 的信念，他们申请了创业加速器 Y Combinator，并于 2019 年被接受。然而，预测市场的合法性仍不明确，联合创始人很快面临艰难的斗争。Y Combinator 的名誉合伙人 Michael Seibel 回忆起与他们合作的早期阶段：当他们意识到需要联邦批准才能合法运营预测市场时，他们联系了 40 多家律师事务所寻求帮助，但没有一家愿意提供帮助，因为创始人太年轻，公司规模太小。“刚大学毕业，我们承担了巨大的风险。整整两年，我们没有产品——什么都没有发布——如果我们没有获得监管批准，公司就会消失，” Lopez Lara 回忆道。在疫情期间，她试图在伦敦建立一家公司，而 Mansour 则回到了贝鲁特的家中。（在那里，他经历了导致 200 多人遇难的致命港口爆炸，几周内他在晚上处理 Kalshi 的工作，白天帮助清理社区和寻找幸存者。）最终，只需要一位律师说 “是”：曾在美国商品期货交易委员会工作的 Jeff Bandman 帮助创始人申请联邦批准，并在监管机构提出异议时协助他们进行谈判。2020 年 11 月，Kalshi 获得了 CFTC 的批准，成为指定合约市场，将其预测市场归类为一种称为 “事件合约” 的衍生品。这一批准也使他们在竞争中脱颖而出。基于区块链技术的 Polymarket 当时并未受到联邦监管，并于 2022 年因运营未注册市场被 CFTC 罚款 140 万美元。所有这些都给 Kalshi 带来了暂时的优势。（Polymarket 于去年九月获得在美国推出的批准。其创始人 Shane Copeland 27 岁，因最近获得纽约证券交易所母公司 20 亿美元的投资而成为最年轻的亿万富翁之一。）然而，监管斗争并未就此结束。在 2023 年末，当监管机构拒绝 Kalshi 的选举合约，该合约计划在 2024 年美国总统选举前推出，理由是 “选举合约属于赌博” 时，是 Luana 提出了起诉 CFTC 的建议。“公司里的其他投资者都说这主意太糟糕，” Patovie 回忆道。但两人还是这样做了。2024 年 9 月，美国地方法院法官裁定支持 Kalshi，使该公司成为美国一个多世纪以来首个受监管的选举合约市场，创造了历史成就。“我们真的想以正确的方式做事，因为我们的愿景是建立世界上最大的金融交易所，” Luana 说。“合法运营是我们无法妥协的事情。” 在选举前的准备阶段，Kalshi 的用户群翻了一番，用户在特朗普或卡马拉·哈里斯之间下注超过 5 亿美元。其用户在选举之夜前一个月准确预测了特朗普总统的胜利。（Polymarket 用户在总统选举中总共下注了 36 亿美元。）“很少有培训项目教你在被告 ‘不’ 时继续前进——一次受伤或短暂的休息可能意味着失去你的位置，” a16z 的合伙人 Alex Imerman 说。“Luana 早期就学会了优雅的坚持……她将这种冷静的自信带入了 Kalshi 的创立。” 尽管最初对其在美国总统选举后保持势头的能力持怀疑态度，Kalshi 表示现在每周处理超过 10 亿美元的交易，其中 90% 以上的交易由体育合约驱动。今年 1 月，唐纳德·特朗普 Jr. 加入了 Kalshi 的顾问委员会。（唐纳德·特朗普 Jr. 也于去年九月加入了其竞争对手 Polymarket 的顾问委员会。）Kalshi 现在已与 Robinhood 和 Webull 等经纪商整合，甚至引入了对冲基金 Susquehanna International Group 以增加其市场的流动性。最近，Kalshi 与从国家冰球联盟到在线市场 StockX 的公司签署了合作协议，并通过与区块链平台 Solana 的整合，成功进军加密领域。该公司表示，新资金将用于扩大与经纪商的整合，并与新闻机构建立新合作关系。然而，它仍面临来自一些对 Kalshi 的体育合约采取法律行动的州的监管压力，认为这些合约应在州级进行监管和征税。但鉴于公司成功克服了曾经看似不可逾越的监管障碍，Kalshi 的投资者对创始人克服困难的能力仍然保持乐观。对于 Seibel（Y Combinator 的合伙人）来说，他在职业生涯中投资了数千家公司，这只是一个开始：“根据我的经验，我们从未投资过一家对世界产生如此巨大影响潜力的公司。”</p>

<p>卢安娜·洛佩斯·拉拉（Luana Lopes Lara），Kalshi 的联合创始人，成为全球最年轻的自造亿万富翁。Kalshi 的估值为 110 亿美元，专注于预测市场交易。尽管面临法律挑战，该公司获得了 CFTC 的批准，使其与竞争对手区别开来。卢安娜的领导促成了一项历史性的法院裁决，允许在美国进行受监管的选举合约</p>

<p>Author: Alicia Park, Source: Forbes</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Alicia Park，来源：福布斯</p>
</div><p>Original Title: How Kalshi’s Cofounder Went From Professional Ballerina To World’s Youngest Self-Made Woman Billionaire</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原标题：Kalshi 的联合创始人如何从职业芭蕾舞者成为世界上最年轻的自制女亿万富翁</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7418211_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7418211_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Kalshi is currently valued at $11 billion, making its two co-founders (Luana Lopes Lara and Tarek)...</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Kalshi 目前的估值为 110 亿美元，使其两位联合创始人（Luana Lopes Lara 和 Tarek）...</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7418213_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7418213_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Luanna Lopez Lara (left) and Tarek Mansour (right) founded Kalshi in 2018.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Luanna Lopez Lara（左）和 Tarek Mansour（右）于 2018 年创立了 Kalshi。</p>
</div><p>“Now that Kalshi has shown how big this market is, there are many others who want a piece of the pie,” said Ali Patovi, CEO of venture fund Neo, the company’s seed investor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“现在 Kalshi 已经展示了这个市场有多大，许多人都想分一杯羹，” 风险投资基金 Neo 的首席执行官 Ali Patovi 说道，该公司是 Kalshi 的种子投资者。</p>
</div><p>“Now that Kalshi has shown how big this market is, there are many others who want a piece of the pie,” said Ali Patovi, CEO of venture fund Neo, which was the company’s seed investor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“现在 Kalshi 已经展示了这个市场有多大，许多人都想分一杯羹，” 风险投资基金 Neo 的首席执行官 Ali Patovi 说道，该公司是 Kalshi 的种子投资者。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7418213_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7418213_image3.png"/></p>
<p>According to the company, Kalshi's notional trading volume has increased eightfold since July, reaching $5.8 billion in November. Meanwhile, according to Dune Analytics, its main competitor, Polymarket, has seen its trading volume more than triple since July, reaching $4.3 billion, and its valuation has soared to $9 billion. Luana and Mansour, who grew up in Lebanon, met at MIT. They were members of the same international student circle, taking similar courses and both majoring in computer science. Mansour, who experienced the 2007 Lebanon conflict and taught himself English while preparing for the SAT, remembers Luana always sitting in the front row in class. The two became acquainted after Mansour started sitting next to her and learning from her, and grew even closer after both securing internships at Five Rings Capital in New York City in 2018. One evening, on their walk back to their intern apartments in the financial district, the idea for predictive market trading suddenly came to them. “We see that most trading happens when people have some kind of idea about the future and then try to find a way to put that into the market,” Luana previously told Forbes. She added that traders and investors incorporate external events—such as election results or the likelihood of natural disasters—into their investment decisions. Based on the belief that &#34;there should be a way to directly trade the probability of events occurring, rather than indirectly through traditional financial markets,&#34; they applied to the startup accelerator Y Combinator and were accepted in 2019. However, the legality of prediction markets was still unclear, and the co-founders soon faced a tough battle. Michael Seibel, an emeritus partner at Y Combinator, recalled the early days working with the two: when they realized they needed federal approval to legally operate a prediction market, they contacted more than 40 law firms for help, but none were willing to assist because the founders were too young and the company too small. &#34;Right out of college, we took on a huge risk. For two whole years, we had no product—nothing was released—and if we didn't get regulatory approval, the company would be gone,&#34; Lopez Lara recalled. During the pandemic, she tried to establish a business in London, while Mansour returned to his home in Beirut. (There he experienced the deadly port explosion that killed more than 200 people, and for weeks he handled Kalshi's work at night and helped clean up the community and search for survivors during the day.) Ultimately, all it took was one lawyer to say &#34;yes&#34;: Jeff Bandman, who had worked at the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, helped the founders with their application for federal approval and assisted them in negotiating when regulators objected. In November 2020, Kalshi received CFTC approval to become a designated contract market, classifying its prediction market as a type of derivative called &#34;event contracts.&#34; This approval also set them apart from the competition. Polymarket, based on blockchain technology, was not federally regulated at the time and was fined $1.4 million by the CFTC in 2022 for operating an unregistered market. All of this gave Kalshi a temporary advantage. (Polymarket was approved to launch in the US last September. Its founder, Shane Copeland, is 27 and has become one of the youngest billionaires thanks to a recent $2 billion investment from the New York Stock Exchange's parent company.) However, the regulatory battle didn't end there. In late 2023, when regulators rejected Kalshi's election contract, which was to be launched before the 2024 US presidential election, citing &#34;election contracts as gambling,&#34; it was Luana who suggested suing the CFTC. &#34;All the other investors in the company said it would be a terrible idea,&#34; Patovie recalled. But the two did it anyway. In September 2024, a U.S. District Court judge ruled in favor of Kalshi, making the company the first regulated election contracts market in the United States in over a century, a historic achievement. “We really want to do things the right way because our vision is to build the world’s largest financial exchange,” said Luana. “Legally operating is something we cannot compromise on.” During the pre-election preparation phase, Kalshi’s user base doubled, with users betting over $500 million on either Trump or Kamala Harris. Its users correctly predicted President Trump’s victory a month before Election Night. (Polymarket users have wagered a total of $3.6 billion on the presidential election.) &#34;Few training programs teach you to keep going even when told 'no'—an injury or even a short break can mean losing your place,&#34; said Alex Imerman, a partner at a16z. &#34;Luana learned graceful perseverance early on…and she brought that calm confidence to the founding of Kalshi.&#34; Despite initial skepticism about its ability to maintain momentum after the U.S. presidential election, Kalshi says it now handles over $1 billion in trades per week, with over 90% of those trades driven by sports contracts. In January, Donald Trump Jr. joined Kalshi's advisory board. (Donald Trump Jr. also joined the advisory board of its rival Polymarket last September.) Kalshi has now integrated with brokers such as Robinhood and Webull, and even brought in hedge fund Susquehanna International Group to increase liquidity in its market. Recently, Kalshi has signed partnerships with companies ranging from the National Hockey League to online marketplace StockX, and has even made a major foray into the crypto space through integration with blockchain platform Solana. The company stated that the new funding will be used to expand its integrations with brokers and to forge new partnerships with news organizations. However, it still faces regulatory pressure from some states that have taken legal action against Kalshi's sports contracts, arguing that these contracts should be regulated and taxed at the state level. But given that the company has successfully overcome what once seemed like insurmountable regulatory hurdles, Kalshi's investors remain optimistic about the founders' ability to overcome difficulties. For Seibel (a partner at Y Combinator), who has invested in thousands of companies throughout his career, this is just the beginning: &#34;In my experience, we've never invested in a company with such a huge potential impact on the world.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据公司数据，自七月以来，Kalshi 的名义交易量增加了八倍，十一月达到了 58 亿美元。同时，根据 Dune Analytics 的数据，其主要竞争对手 Polymarket 的交易量自七月以来增长了三倍多，达到了 43 亿美元，估值飙升至 90 亿美元。来自黎巴嫩的 Luana 和 Mansour 在麻省理工学院相识。他们是同一个国际学生圈的成员，修读相似的课程，均主修计算机科学。经历过 2007 年黎巴嫩冲突的 Mansour 自学英语以备考 SAT，他记得 Luana 总是坐在课堂的前排。两人在 Mansour 开始坐在她旁边并向她学习后相识，2018 年他们在纽约市的 Five Rings Capital 获得实习机会后关系更加密切。某个晚上，在返回金融区实习公寓的路上，他们突然想到预测市场交易的想法。“我们看到大多数交易发生在当人们对未来有某种想法时，然后试图找到将其投入市场的方法，” Luana 曾对《福布斯》表示。她补充说，交易者和投资者将外部事件——例如选举结果或自然灾害的可能性——纳入他们的投资决策中。基于 “应该有一种直接交易事件发生概率的方法，而不是通过传统金融市场间接交易” 的信念，他们申请了创业加速器 Y Combinator，并于 2019 年被接受。然而，预测市场的合法性仍不明确，联合创始人很快面临艰难的斗争。Y Combinator 的名誉合伙人 Michael Seibel 回忆起与他们合作的早期阶段：当他们意识到需要联邦批准才能合法运营预测市场时，他们联系了 40 多家律师事务所寻求帮助，但没有一家愿意提供帮助，因为创始人太年轻，公司规模太小。“刚大学毕业，我们承担了巨大的风险。整整两年，我们没有产品——什么都没有发布——如果我们没有获得监管批准，公司就会消失，” Lopez Lara 回忆道。在疫情期间，她试图在伦敦建立一家公司，而 Mansour 则回到了贝鲁特的家中。（在那里，他经历了导致 200 多人遇难的致命港口爆炸，几周内他在晚上处理 Kalshi 的工作，白天帮助清理社区和寻找幸存者。）最终，只需要一位律师说 “是”：曾在美国商品期货交易委员会工作的 Jeff Bandman 帮助创始人申请联邦批准，并在监管机构提出异议时协助他们进行谈判。2020 年 11 月，Kalshi 获得了 CFTC 的批准，成为指定合约市场，将其预测市场归类为一种称为 “事件合约” 的衍生品。这一批准也使他们在竞争中脱颖而出。基于区块链技术的 Polymarket 当时并未受到联邦监管，并于 2022 年因运营未注册市场被 CFTC 罚款 140 万美元。所有这些都给 Kalshi 带来了暂时的优势。（Polymarket 于去年九月获得在美国推出的批准。其创始人 Shane Copeland 27 岁，因最近获得纽约证券交易所母公司 20 亿美元的投资而成为最年轻的亿万富翁之一。）然而，监管斗争并未就此结束。在 2023 年末，当监管机构拒绝 Kalshi 的选举合约，该合约计划在 2024 年美国总统选举前推出，理由是 “选举合约属于赌博” 时，是 Luana 提出了起诉 CFTC 的建议。“公司里的其他投资者都说这主意太糟糕，” Patovie 回忆道。但两人还是这样做了。2024 年 9 月，美国地方法院法官裁定支持 Kalshi，使该公司成为美国一个多世纪以来首个受监管的选举合约市场，创造了历史成就。“我们真的想以正确的方式做事，因为我们的愿景是建立世界上最大的金融交易所，” Luana 说。“合法运营是我们无法妥协的事情。” 在选举前的准备阶段，Kalshi 的用户群翻了一番，用户在特朗普或卡马拉·哈里斯之间下注超过 5 亿美元。其用户在选举之夜前一个月准确预测了特朗普总统的胜利。（Polymarket 用户在总统选举中总共下注了 36 亿美元。）“很少有培训项目教你在被告 ‘不’ 时继续前进——一次受伤或短暂的休息可能意味着失去你的位置，” a16z 的合伙人 Alex Imerman 说。“Luana 早期就学会了优雅的坚持……她将这种冷静的自信带入了 Kalshi 的创立。” 尽管最初对其在美国总统选举后保持势头的能力持怀疑态度，Kalshi 表示现在每周处理超过 10 亿美元的交易，其中 90% 以上的交易由体育合约驱动。今年 1 月，唐纳德·特朗普 Jr. 加入了 Kalshi 的顾问委员会。（唐纳德·特朗普 Jr. 也于去年九月加入了其竞争对手 Polymarket 的顾问委员会。）Kalshi 现在已与 Robinhood 和 Webull 等经纪商整合，甚至引入了对冲基金 Susquehanna International Group 以增加其市场的流动性。最近，Kalshi 与从国家冰球联盟到在线市场 StockX 的公司签署了合作协议，并通过与区块链平台 Solana 的整合，成功进军加密领域。该公司表示，新资金将用于扩大与经纪商的整合，并与新闻机构建立新合作关系。然而，它仍面临来自一些对 Kalshi 的体育合约采取法律行动的州的监管压力，认为这些合约应在州级进行监管和征税。但鉴于公司成功克服了曾经看似不可逾越的监管障碍，Kalshi 的投资者对创始人克服困难的能力仍然保持乐观。对于 Seibel（Y Combinator 的合伙人）来说，他在职业生涯中投资了数千家公司，这只是一个开始：“根据我的经验，我们从未投资过一家对世界产生如此巨大影响潜力的公司。”</p>
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从芭蕾舞者到最年轻的亿万富翁：Luana 打造了一个市值数十亿美元的 Kalshi