<p>比特币（<strong>BTC-USD</strong>）正处于一个决策时刻，短期交易者正在面临整个当前市场周期中最严重的未实现损失。那些在一到三个月前购买比特币的交易者，已经在超过两周的时间里承受着 20% 到 25% 的损失，标志着一个 “极限痛苦” 的时刻。</p>
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<p>尽管零售投资者出现了抛售，但机构需求显示出复苏的迹象。比特币 ETF 开始转为正值，连续五天录得净流入，表明市场可能接近局部底部。</p>
<h2><strong>极限痛苦可能意味着积累机会</strong></h2>
<p>严重的未实现损失正在影响最活跃的短期交易者群体。根据 CryptoQuant 分析师 Darkfost 的说法，一旦这一群体的大部分人出现抛售，这在最近几周已经显现，通常意味着积累的机会变得有趣。</p>
<p>这一群体将继续处于亏损状态，直到比特币价格回升至约 $113,692 的实现价格。然而，包括 Grayscale 在内的一些主要金融机构仍然持乐观态度，认为当前的回调指向 2026 年复苏前的局部底部。</p>
<h2><strong>ETF 卖压仅占总量的 3%</strong></h2>
<p>尽管之前市场对现货比特币 ETF 持有者的大规模抛售表示担忧，但分析确认这些基金仅占总卖压的一小部分。根据 <em>Bloomberg</em> ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 的说法，ETF 仅对总卖压的最大贡献为 3%。</p>
<p>这些数据反驳了机构流出导致近期价格崩溃的说法。分析表明，绝大多数的卖压来自其他来源，包括现在面临严重未实现损失的短期零售交易者。</p>
<h2><strong>机构流动转为正值</strong></h2>
<p>关键的发展是机构资金流动的稳定。比特币 ETF 已开始从艰难的 11 月中恢复，该月是其有记录以来的第二差月份。</p>
<p>这些 ETF 在周二录得 5800 万美元的净正流入，标志着连续第五天的正流入。这一点非常重要，因为比特币现在的交易价格已回升至 $89,600 的流动加权成本基础之上，这意味着平均机构持有者不再面临账面损失。</p>
<p>总而言之，短期比特币交易者现在面临周期中最严重的未实现损失。这与比特币 ETF 连续五天的流入相结合，强烈表明市场正达到零售投资者的抛售和机构的积累时刻。ETF 流入的反弹有助于确认机构的卖压微乎其微。这为潜在的局部底部和复苏铺平了道路。</p>
<p>截至撰写时，比特币的价格为 $92,918.01。</p>

<p>比特币正经历 “峰值痛苦”，短期交易者面临严重的未实现损失，而机构需求则显示出复苏的迹象。比特币 ETF 已连续五天录得净流入，暗示可能出现局部底部。尽管存在担忧，ETF 的卖压却很小，仅占总销售的 3%。机构资金流动已转为正值，表明市场可能正在复苏。比特币目前的交易价格为 92,918.01 美元</p>

<p>Bitcoin ( <strong>BTC-USD</strong>) has reached a moment of decision as short-term traders are now grappling with the steepest unrealized losses of the entire current market cycle. Traders who bought Bitcoin between one and three months ago have been sitting on losses ranging from 20% to 25% for over two weeks, marking a moment of &#34;peak pain.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币（<strong>BTC-USD</strong>）正处于一个决策时刻，短期交易者正在面临整个当前市场周期中最严重的未实现损失。那些在一到三个月前购买比特币的交易者，已经在超过两周的时间里承受着 20% 到 25% 的损失，标志着一个 “极限痛苦” 的时刻。</p>
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</div><p>Despite this retail capitulation, institutional demand is showing signs of recovery. Bitcoin ETFs have started turning positive, recording five consecutive days of net inflows, suggesting the market may be nearing a local bottom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管零售投资者出现了抛售，但机构需求显示出复苏的迹象。比特币 ETF 开始转为正值，连续五天录得净流入，表明市场可能接近局部底部。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Peak Pain Could Signal Accumulation Opportunity</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>极限痛苦可能意味着积累机会</strong></h2>
</div><p>The steep unrealized losses are hitting the most active cohort of short-term traders. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, once a large portion of this group has capitulated. This has been seen in recent weeks and it usually signals that the opportunity to accumulate becomes interesting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>严重的未实现损失正在影响最活跃的短期交易者群体。根据 CryptoQuant 分析师 Darkfost 的说法，一旦这一群体的大部分人出现抛售，这在最近几周已经显现，通常意味着积累的机会变得有趣。</p>
</div><p>This cohort will remain underwater until the Bitcoin price trades back above its realized price of about $113,692. However, some major financial institutions, including Grayscale, remain optimistic, suggesting the current drawdown points to a local bottom ahead of a recovery in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一群体将继续处于亏损状态，直到比特币价格回升至约 $113,692 的实现价格。然而，包括 Grayscale 在内的一些主要金融机构仍然持乐观态度，认为当前的回调指向 2026 年复苏前的局部底部。</p>
</div><h2><strong>ETF Selling Pressure Was Only 3% Of Total</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>ETF 卖压仅占总量的 3%</strong></h2>
</div><p>Despite previous market concern over large-scale sales from spot Bitcoin ETF holders, analysis confirms these funds were only a small fraction of the total selling pressure. According to <em>Bloomberg</em> ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, ETFs have been responsible for a maximum of only 3% of the total selling tops.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管之前市场对现货比特币 ETF 持有者的大规模抛售表示担忧，但分析确认这些基金仅占总卖压的一小部分。根据 <em>Bloomberg</em> ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 的说法，ETF 仅对总卖压的最大贡献为 3%。</p>
</div><p>This data pushes back on the narrative that institutional outflows drove the recent price collapse. The analysis suggests that the vast majority of selling pressure came from other sources, including the short-term retail traders now sitting on deep unrealized losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些数据反驳了机构流出导致近期价格崩溃的说法。分析表明，绝大多数的卖压来自其他来源，包括现在面临严重未实现损失的短期零售交易者。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Institutional Flow Turns Positive</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>机构流动转为正值</strong></h2>
</div><p>The crucial development is the stabilization of institutional money flow. Bitcoin ETFs have started recovering from a difficult November, which marked their second-worst month on record.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键的发展是机构资金流动的稳定。比特币 ETF 已开始从艰难的 11 月中恢复，该月是其有记录以来的第二差月份。</p>
</div><p>The ETFs recorded $58 million worth of net positive inflows on Tuesday, marking the fifth consecutive day of positive inflows. This is significant because Bitcoin is now trading back above the $89,600 flow-weighted cost basis for ETF buyers, meaning the average institutional holder is no longer sitting on paper losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些 ETF 在周二录得 5800 万美元的净正流入，标志着连续第五天的正流入。这一点非常重要，因为比特币现在的交易价格已回升至 $89,600 的流动加权成本基础之上，这意味着平均机构持有者不再面临账面损失。</p>
</div><p>To sum up, short-term Bitcoin traders are now facing the steepest unrealized losses of the cycle. This is coupled with five consecutive days of Bitcoin ETF inflows, which strongly suggests the market is reaching a point of retail capitulation and institutional accumulation. The rebound in ETF flows helps confirm that the institutional selling pressure was minimal. This clears the path for a potential local bottom and recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总而言之，短期比特币交易者现在面临周期中最严重的未实现损失。这与比特币 ETF 连续五天的流入相结合，强烈表明市场正达到零售投资者的抛售和机构的积累时刻。ETF 流入的反弹有助于确认机构的卖压微乎其微。这为潜在的局部底部和复苏铺平了道路。</p>
</div><p>At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $92,918.01.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至撰写时，比特币的价格为 $92,918.01。</p>
</div>

比特币发出 “峰值痛苦” 警告，随着聪明资金押注本地底部，ETF 转为积极