<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1125" height="750" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pexels</em></p>
<h3><strong>国债喜欢 4% 到 4.1% 的交易区间。暂时突破下方更为可能。但突破上方则更具持续性</strong></h3>
<p>美国 ADP 就业报告显示 11 月份为负值，减少 32,000 个职位。今年 9 月、8 月和 6 月也出现了负值，而去年没有出现负值。情况确实放缓了。但国债对疲弱就业叙事表现出了一定的韧性。部分原因是移民净流入减少，导致对就业创造的需求降低。但更重要的是，未来的驱动力是生产率增长而非就业增长（包括人工智能等因素）。</p>
<p>在数据发布前，10 年期收益率有所下降，尽管有上述警告，这个 ADP 数字本应进一步推动其下行。但相反，它保持在约 4.06% 的水平。9 月份的进口价格也公布了（稍有滞后）——非常低迷；无论是环比还是同比，统计上几乎为零（或接近零）。至少，关税风险并没有因进口价格上涨而加剧。不过，出口价格上涨至 3.8%——这是大约三年来的最高水平，但远低于 2021/22 年超过 15% 的水平。总体而言，这些数据大多属于二线数据，对水平的影响不大。工业生产数据和 ISM 服务业数据也公布了，但影响不大。</p>
<p>这里的问题在于市场缺乏足够的理由突破 4%。与此同时，市场也不愿意推动收益率高于 4.1%。周五的 PCE 数据可能会给低于 4% 的阵营带来提振，特别是如果我们得到 0.1% 的环比结果（并非不可能）。在更可能的 0.2% 结果下，我们将继续进入下周和 FOMC 会议前的准备期。周四的挑战者报告也是一个重要数据，可能会产生影响。但上个月的大规模裁员最终被该月的低失业救济申请所抵消。</p>
<p>在突破之前，我们可能会在 10 年期收益率的 4% 到 4.1% 的交易区间内待一段时间。我们认为突破下方是暂时的（可能持续到年初），而突破上方则更具结构性（无疑是 2026 年的事情）。</p>
<h3><strong>周四的事件和市场展望</strong></h3>
<p>在欧元区方面，数据方面我们只会获得 10 月份的零售销售数据。Kocher、Lane、Cipollone 和 de Guindos 等欧洲央行成员将再次发表讲话。</p>
<p>关键关注点将继续是美国就业市场指标。我们将获得挑战者裁员数字以及每周的失业救济申请数据。后者迄今为止描绘了相对温和的图景，与 ADP 薪资数据所示的裁员形成对比。尽管美联储处于会议前的沟通禁言期，Bowman 仍计划谈论银行监管和规制。</p>
<p>在发行方面，西班牙和法国将进行今年最后一次债券拍卖。西班牙将出售 4 年期和 12 年期债券，以及 11 年期的通胀挂钩债券，总计最高可达 42.5 亿欧元。法国则出售 10 年期至 30 年期的长期债券，总计最高可达 55 亿欧元。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>来自波兰国家银行的预期圣诞礼物</p>
<p>外汇日报：市场巩固哈塞特交易</p>
<p>利率快讯：德国国债仍然昂贵，美国国债则显得沉重</p>

自动数据处理

<p>美国国债的交易区间在 4% 到 4.1% 之间，存在突破的潜力。11 月份的 ADP 就业报告显示就业人数下降，延续了前几个月的趋势。尽管就业数据疲软，但由于移民减少和生产率增长等因素，国债依然表现出韧性。进口价格保持稳定，而出口价格有所上涨。市场在等待关键数据，包括个人消费支出（PCE）和失业救济申请，这些数据可能会影响收益率的波动。欧元区的零售销售和欧洲央行成员的讲话也备受关注。西班牙和法国将进行今年最后的债券拍卖</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA" alt="" original-src="https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=750&amp;w=1260"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pexels</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pexels</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>Treasuries love that 4% to 4.1% trading range. Temporary break below more likely. But break above has more legs</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>国债喜欢 4% 到 4.1% 的交易区间。暂时突破下方更为可能。但突破上方则更具持续性</strong></h3>
</div><p>The US ADP employment report printed negative for November, at -32k. It also printed negative in September, August and June this year, whereas there were no negative prints last year. Things have certainly slowed. But Treasuries have built a bit of resilience to the weak jobs narrative. Partly as there are fewer immigrants coming into the country in net terms, requiring less employment generation. But also as its productivity growth rather than employment growth driving things into the future (AI, among others).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国 ADP 就业报告显示 11 月份为负值，减少 32,000 个职位。今年 9 月、8 月和 6 月也出现了负值，而去年没有出现负值。情况确实放缓了。但国债对疲弱就业叙事表现出了一定的韧性。部分原因是移民净流入减少，导致对就业创造的需求降低。但更重要的是，未来的驱动力是生产率增长而非就业增长（包括人工智能等因素）。</p>
</div><p>The 10yr yield was lower ahead of the data, and despite the above caveats, this ADP number should have given it a further push lower. But instead it held (at around 4.06%). Import prices also came in for September (a bit of a lag) – very subdued; statistically zero (or close to) whether month-on-month or year-on-year. At least the tariff risk is not being exacerbated by higher import prices. Export prices were up to 3.8% though – that's the highest rate in about three years, but nowhere near as high as the 15+% rates we saw in 2021/22. Overall, these are mostly second-tier data, and do not have a huge impact on levels. Industrial production data and ISM services came in too, but to little effect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在数据发布前，10 年期收益率有所下降，尽管有上述警告，这个 ADP 数字本应进一步推动其下行。但相反，它保持在约 4.06% 的水平。9 月份的进口价格也公布了（稍有滞后）——非常低迷；无论是环比还是同比，统计上几乎为零（或接近零）。至少，关税风险并没有因进口价格上涨而加剧。不过，出口价格上涨至 3.8%——这是大约三年来的最高水平，但远低于 2021/22 年超过 15% 的水平。总体而言，这些数据大多属于二线数据，对水平的影响不大。工业生产数据和 ISM 服务业数据也公布了，但影响不大。</p>
</div><p>The issue here is a market lacking a good enough reason to break below 4%. And at the same time, there's a reluctance to push on higher above 4.1%. Friday's PCE data might give the sub-4% camp a boost, especially if we were to get a 0.1% MoM outcome (not impossible). On the more likely 0.2% outcome, we'll then roll on into next week and the pre-FOMC run-in. The Challenger report on Thursday is another big one, potentially. But last month's big layoffs were in the end negated by low jobless claims right through that month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这里的问题在于市场缺乏足够的理由突破 4%。与此同时，市场也不愿意推动收益率高于 4.1%。周五的 PCE 数据可能会给低于 4% 的阵营带来提振，特别是如果我们得到 0.1% 的环比结果（并非不可能）。在更可能的 0.2% 结果下，我们将继续进入下周和 FOMC 会议前的准备期。周四的挑战者报告也是一个重要数据，可能会产生影响。但上个月的大规模裁员最终被该月的低失业救济申请所抵消。</p>
</div><p>We could be in this 4% to 4.1% trading range for the 10yr yield for a bit before we break out. We'd view a break below as temporary (perhaps into the turn of the year), and a break above as more structural (certainly something for 2026).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在突破之前，我们可能会在 10 年期收益率的 4% 到 4.1% 的交易区间内待一段时间。我们认为突破下方是暂时的（可能持续到年初），而突破上方则更具结构性（无疑是 2026 年的事情）。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Thursday’s events and market view</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>周四的事件和市场展望</strong></h3>
</div><p>Out of the eurozone, in terms of data, we will only get the retail sales figures for October. With Kocher, Lane, Cipollone and de Guindos, there are again a number of European Central Bank members scheduled to speak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在欧元区方面，数据方面我们只会获得 10 月份的零售销售数据。Kocher、Lane、Cipollone 和 de Guindos 等欧洲央行成员将再次发表讲话。</p>
</div><p>Key focus will remain on US job market indicators. We will get the Challenger job cuts numbers as well as the weekly jobless claims figures. The latter have so far painted a relatively benign picture, contrasting with the job cuts signalled by the ADP payrolls data, for instance. While the Fed is in its pre-meeting communication blackout, Bowman is still slated to talk about bank supervision and regulation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键关注点将继续是美国就业市场指标。我们将获得挑战者裁员数字以及每周的失业救济申请数据。后者迄今为止描绘了相对温和的图景，与 ADP 薪资数据所示的裁员形成对比。尽管美联储处于会议前的沟通禁言期，Bowman 仍计划谈论银行监管和规制。</p>
</div><p>In terms of issuance, Spain and France will conduct their final bond auctions for the year. Spain will sell 4y and 12y bonds as well as 11y inflation-linked bonds, for a total of up to €4.25bn overall. France sells longer bonds from 10y out to 30y maturities for a total of up to €5.5bn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在发行方面，西班牙和法国将进行今年最后一次债券拍卖。西班牙将出售 4 年期和 12 年期债券，以及 11 年期的通胀挂钩债券，总计最高可达 42.5 亿欧元。法国则出售 10 年期至 30 年期的长期债券，总计最高可达 55 亿欧元。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>An Expected Christmas Gift From The National Bank Of Poland</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自波兰国家银行的预期圣诞礼物</p>
</div><p>FX Daily: Markets Firm Up The Hassett Trade</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>外汇日报：市场巩固哈塞特交易</p>
</div><p>Rates Spark: Bunds Still Rich, Treasuries Ponderous</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率快讯：德国国债仍然昂贵，美国国债则显得沉重</p>
</div>

利率动态：国债在区间内波动，但有望突破