<p>要点：</p>
<ul>
<li>股票上涨 0.9%，货币持平</li>
<li>投资者关注洪都拉斯选举和美委紧张局势</li>
<li>巴西 Bovespa 指数突破 164,000 点</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：Niket Nishant</p>
<p>拉丁美洲股票在周四延续涨势，主要受到市场对美国联邦储备委员会即将降息的预期推动，同时投资者也关注区域内的重要动态。</p>
<p>MSCI 拉美股票指数（.MILA00000PUS）上涨 0.9%，达到近六年来的最高点，预计将延续三天的上涨趋势。</p>
<p>一个针对区域货币的平行指数（.MILA00000CUS）在早盘上涨后略微回落，结束了因市场对下个月美国降息 25 个基点的高预期而持续八天的涨势。</p>
<p>美国利率降低通常会削弱美元，并刺激对高收益资产的需求，包括许多拉丁美洲货币。</p>
<p>尽管 12 月通常是市场较为平淡的时期，但投资者仍在权衡多种因素，包括利率预期的变化、尽管有外交努力但乌克兰持续的地缘政治紧张局势，以及一系列地方政治和经济动态。</p>
<p>在拉丁美洲，关注的焦点是洪都拉斯日益激烈的总统竞选，保守派候选人 Nasry Asfura 得到美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的支持，而中间派对手萨尔瓦多·纳斯拉拉则指控总统选举存在舞弊，因为 Asfura 在夜间以微弱优势超过了他。</p>
<p>洪都拉斯以美元计价的债券在周四几乎没有变化。</p>
<p>巴西股票创下历史新高</p>
<p>巴西 Bovespa 指数上涨 1.4%，首次突破 164,000 点，此前数据显示第三季度经济增速低于预期，提升了明年初降息的预期。雷亚尔对美元保持稳定。</p>
<p>“我们预计经济将在 2026 年进一步放缓，且通胀将继续下降。我们认为巴西中央银行货币政策委员会（Copom）将在 1 月的会议上转向降息，” Capital Economics 的分析师在一份报告中表示。</p>
<p>官方数据显示，巴西 11 月份的贸易顺差同比下降 13.4%，几乎与经济学家的预期一致。</p>
<p>与此同时，巴西国会议员 Gervasio Maia 提议在明年的财政目标中排除多达 100 亿雷亚尔（19 亿美元）用于国有企业的预算指导法案。</p>
<p>智利主要股票指数持平，当地比索上涨 0.1%。智利矿业巨头 SQM 在筹集约 4.3 亿美元的债券销售后下跌 2.6%。</p>
<p>墨西哥股票和比索分别上涨 0.1% 和 0.3%。据 Politico 报道，特朗普可能在明年决定退出美墨加贸易协定，引用了美国贸易代表 Jamieson Greer 的说法。</p>
<p>在阿根廷，股票下跌 0.3%。比索上涨 0.86%，而大多数美元债券略有上涨。</p>
<p>彭博社周三报道称，阿根廷官员开始为该国在 2026 年初重返国际债券市场做准备，引用了知情人士的说法。</p>
<p>国际货币基金组织表示，该国必须调整其货币和汇率政策，以建立储备并重新获得国际资本市场的准入。</p>
<p>哥伦比亚股票持平，比索对美元上涨 0.1%。</p>
<p>此外，投资者正在关注委内瑞拉的动态，因为特朗普与委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗之间的激烈言辞。</p>
<p>美国对委内瑞拉的压力不断增加，包括对涉嫌贩毒船只的打击和军事行动的威胁。</p>
<p>主要拉丁美洲股票指数和货币：</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>股票指数</td>
<td>最新</td>
<td>日变化%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI 新兴市场 CBOE:EFS</td>
<td>1376.13</td>
<td>0.23</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI 拉美 (.MILA00000PUS)</td>
<td>2788.85</td>
<td>0.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>巴西 Bovespa</td>
<td>164062.18</td>
<td>1.43</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>墨西哥 IPC</td>
<td>63670.79</td>
<td>0.12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>智利 IPSA</td>
<td>10179.37</td>
<td>0.03</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>阿根廷 MerVal</td>
<td>3118995.85</td>
<td>-0.33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>哥伦比亚 COLCAP</td>
<td>2107.44</td>
<td>0.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>货币</td>
<td>最新</td>
<td>日变化%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>巴西雷亚尔</td>
<td>5.3068</td>
<td>0.02</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>墨西哥比索</td>
<td>18.231</td>
<td>0.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>智利比索</td>
<td>917.3</td>
<td>0.12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>哥伦比亚比索</td>
<td>3794</td>
<td>-0.84</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>秘鲁索尔</td>
<td>3.3596</td>
<td>0.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>阿根廷比索（银行间）</td>
<td>1,441.0</td>
<td>0.86</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>阿根廷比索（平行市场）(ARSB=)</td>
<td>1,410.0</td>
<td>2.08</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

智利矿业化工

<p>拉丁美洲股票上涨 0.9%，因对美国联邦储备可能降息的乐观情绪，而地区货币保持平稳。巴西的博维斯帕指数创下历史新高，受到经济放缓预期的推动。投资者正在关注洪都拉斯的总统选举和美国与委内瑞拉之间的紧张关系。智利的 SQM 在债券发行后下跌，而墨西哥股票和比索略微上涨。阿根廷比索上涨，官员们正为 2026 年重新进入债券市场做准备。该地区主要股票指数和货币表现各异</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要点：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Stocks up 0.9%, currencies flat</li>
<li>Investors eye Honduras elections, US-Venezuela tensions</li>
<li>Brazil's Bovespa tops 164,000 points</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>股票上涨 0.9%，货币持平</li>
<li>投资者关注洪都拉斯选举和美委紧张局势</li>
<li>巴西 Bovespa 指数突破 164,000 点</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Niket Nishant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Niket Nishant</p>
</div><p>Latin American stocks extended gains on Thursday, driven by growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin lowering interest rates soon, while investors also focused on key regional developments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>拉丁美洲股票在周四延续涨势，主要受到市场对美国联邦储备委员会即将降息的预期推动，同时投资者也关注区域内的重要动态。</p>
</div><p>MSCI's index of LatAm equities (.MILA00000PUS) climbed 0.9% to hit a near six-year high, on pace to extend its winning streak to a third day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSCI 拉美股票指数（.MILA00000PUS）上涨 0.9%，达到近六年来的最高点，预计将延续三天的上涨趋势。</p>
</div><p>A parallel index for regional currencies (.MILA00000CUS) gave up early gains to trade slightly lower on the day, following an eight-day winning streak driven by elevated bets on a quarter-point U.S. rate cut next month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个针对区域货币的平行指数（.MILA00000CUS）在早盘上涨后略微回落，结束了因市场对下个月美国降息 25 个基点的高预期而持续八天的涨势。</p>
</div><p>Lower U.S. rates typically weaken the dollar and spur demand for higher-yielding assets, including many Latin American currencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国利率降低通常会削弱美元，并刺激对高收益资产的需求，包括许多拉丁美洲货币。</p>
</div><p>Although December is usually a subdued period for markets, investors have been juggling several factors, including shifting rate-cut expectations, persistent geopolitical tensions in Ukraine despite diplomatic efforts, and a series of local political and economic developments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 12 月通常是市场较为平淡的时期，但投资者仍在权衡多种因素，包括利率预期的变化、尽管有外交努力但乌克兰持续的地缘政治紧张局势，以及一系列地方政治和经济动态。</p>
</div><p>In Latin America, attention is focused on an increasingly contentious presidential race in Honduras between conservative candidate Nasry Asfura, backed by U.S. President Donald Trump, and centrist rival Salvador Nasralla. Nasralla has alleged fraud in the presidential vote after Asfura pulled narrowly past him overnight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在拉丁美洲，关注的焦点是洪都拉斯日益激烈的总统竞选，保守派候选人 Nasry Asfura 得到美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的支持，而中间派对手萨尔瓦多·纳斯拉拉则指控总统选举存在舞弊，因为 Asfura 在夜间以微弱优势超过了他。</p>
</div><p>Honduran dollar-denominated bonds were little changed on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>洪都拉斯以美元计价的债券在周四几乎没有变化。</p>
</div><p>BRAZILIAN EQUITIES HIT RECORD HIGH</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴西股票创下历史新高</p>
</div><p>Brazil's Bovespa  rose 1.4% and surpassed 164,000 points for the first time after data showed that the economy slowed more than expected in the third quarter, boosting expectations of rate cuts early next year. The real  was steady against the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴西 Bovespa 指数上涨 1.4%，首次突破 164,000 点，此前数据显示第三季度经济增速低于预期，提升了明年初降息的预期。雷亚尔对美元保持稳定。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We expect the economy to slow further in 2026 and with inflation set to continue falling. We think Copom (Monetary Policy Committee of Brazil's central bank) will shift to interest rate cuts at its meeting in January,&#34; analysts at Capital Economics said in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们预计经济将在 2026 年进一步放缓，且通胀将继续下降。我们认为巴西中央银行货币政策委员会（Copom）将在 1 月的会议上转向降息，” Capital Economics 的分析师在一份报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>Brazil's trade surplus fell 13.4% in November from the same month last year, official data showed, landing almost in line with economists' estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>官方数据显示，巴西 11 月份的贸易顺差同比下降 13.4%，几乎与经济学家的预期一致。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Brazilian Congressman Gervasio Maia, sponsor of the 2026 budget guidelines bill, proposed excluding up to 10 billion reais ($1.9 billion) from next year's fiscal target for state-owned companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，巴西国会议员 Gervasio Maia 提议在明年的财政目标中排除多达 100 亿雷亚尔（19 亿美元）用于国有企业的预算指导法案。</p>
</div><p>Chile's main stock index  was flat, while the local peso  rose 0.1%. Chilean mining giant SQM  slipped 2.6% after raising approximately $430 million in a bond sale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>智利主要股票指数持平，当地比索上涨 0.1%。智利矿业巨头 SQM 在筹集约 4.3 亿美元的债券销售后下跌 2.6%。</p>
</div><p>Mexican equities  and the peso  were up 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively. Trump could decide next year to withdraw from the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, Politico reported, citing U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨西哥股票和比索分别上涨 0.1% 和 0.3%。据 Politico 报道，特朗普可能在明年决定退出美墨加贸易协定，引用了美国贸易代表 Jamieson Greer 的说法。</p>
</div><p>In Argentina, equities  slipped 0.3%. The peso  rose 0.86%, while most dollar bonds were slightly higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在阿根廷，股票下跌 0.3%。比索上涨 0.86%，而大多数美元债券略有上涨。</p>
</div><p>Argentine officials are starting to prepare the country's return to international bond markets by the start of 2026, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>彭博社周三报道称，阿根廷官员开始为该国在 2026 年初重返国际债券市场做准备，引用了知情人士的说法。</p>
</div><p>The International Monetary Fund said the country must adjust its monetary and exchange-rate policies to build reserves and regain access to international capital markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际货币基金组织表示，该国必须调整其货币和汇率政策，以建立储备并重新获得国际资本市场的准入。</p>
</div><p>Colombian stocks  steadied and the peso  was up 0.1% against the greenback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>哥伦比亚股票持平，比索对美元上涨 0.1%。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, investors are monitoring developments in Venezuela amid aggressive rhetoric between Trump and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，投资者正在关注委内瑞拉的动态，因为特朗普与委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗之间的激烈言辞。</p>
</div><p>U.S. pressure on Venezuela has been building, including strikes against alleged drug-smuggling boats and threats of military action.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国对委内瑞拉的压力不断增加，包括对涉嫌贩毒船只的打击和军事行动的威胁。</p>
</div><p>Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要拉丁美洲股票指数和货币：</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Stock indexes</td>
<td>Latest</td>
<td>Daily % change</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI Emerging Markets CBOE:EFS</td>
<td>1376.13</td>
<td>0.23</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI LatAm (.MILA00000PUS)</td>
<td>2788.85</td>
<td>0.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Brazil Bovespa</td>
<td>164062.18</td>
<td>1.43</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mexico IPC</td>
<td>63670.79</td>
<td>0.12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Chile IPSA</td>
<td>10179.37</td>
<td>0.03</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Argentina MerVal</td>
<td>3118995.85</td>
<td>-0.33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Colombia COLCAP</td>
<td>2107.44</td>
<td>0.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Currencies</td>
<td>Latest</td>
<td>Daily % change</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Brazil real</td>
<td>5.3068</td>
<td>0.02</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mexico peso</td>
<td>18.231</td>
<td>0.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Chile peso</td>
<td>917.3</td>
<td>0.12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Colombia peso</td>
<td>3794</td>
<td>-0.84</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Peru sol</td>
<td>3.3596</td>
<td>0.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Argentina peso (interbank)</td>
<td>1,441.0</td>
<td>0.86</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Argentina peso (parallel) (ARSB=)</td>
<td>1,410.0</td>
<td>2.08</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>股票指数</td>
<td>最新</td>
<td>日变化%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI 新兴市场 CBOE:EFS</td>
<td>1376.13</td>
<td>0.23</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI 拉美 (.MILA00000PUS)</td>
<td>2788.85</td>
<td>0.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>巴西 Bovespa</td>
<td>164062.18</td>
<td>1.43</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>墨西哥 IPC</td>
<td>63670.79</td>
<td>0.12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>智利 IPSA</td>
<td>10179.37</td>
<td>0.03</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>阿根廷 MerVal</td>
<td>3118995.85</td>
<td>-0.33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>哥伦比亚 COLCAP</td>
<td>2107.44</td>
<td>0.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>货币</td>
<td>最新</td>
<td>日变化%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>巴西雷亚尔</td>
<td>5.3068</td>
<td>0.02</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>墨西哥比索</td>
<td>18.231</td>
<td>0.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>智利比索</td>
<td>917.3</td>
<td>0.12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>哥伦比亚比索</td>
<td>3794</td>
<td>-0.84</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>秘鲁索尔</td>
<td>3.3596</td>
<td>0.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>阿根廷比索（银行间）</td>
<td>1,441.0</td>
<td>0.86</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>阿根廷比索（平行市场）(ARSB=)</td>
<td>1,410.0</td>
<td>2.08</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>

拉美股市因对美联储的乐观情绪而持续上涨；区域发展成为关注焦点