<p>作者：Kevin Buckland</p>
<p>周五，美元在主要货币对中徘徊在五周低点附近，投资者为下周的美联储降息做准备。</p>
<p>市场普遍预计在 12 月 9 日至 10 日的货币政策制定会议上将降息 25 个基点，关注的焦点将是关于未来可能进一步宽松的任何信号。</p>
<p>美元指数衡量该货币对六种竞争货币的表现，周初在 99.065 持平。隔夜小幅上涨结束了连续九天的下跌，但该指数在当日早些时候曾跌至 98.765 的五周低点，预计本周将下跌 0.4%。</p>
<p>交易员预计下周三美联储降息的概率约为 86%，并可能在明年再降息 2-3 次，LSEG 数据显示。</p>
<p>美联储官员一直在仔细观察劳动力市场，以确定经济是否需要进一步支持。</p>
<p>隔夜数据显示，上周申请失业救济的新申请人数降至三年多来的最低水平，但可能受到感恩节假期的影响。</p>
<p>由于创纪录的政府关门延迟了一些数据发布，并阻止其他数据的收集，数据情况仍不完整。</p>
<p>关键的月度就业数据通常会在周五晚些时候发布，但已被推迟，上个月的数据从未发布。</p>
<p>然而，美联储偏好的通胀指标之一——个人消费支出平减指数（PCE）将在周五晚些时候发布，尽管数据是针对九月份的。LSEG 调查的经济学家预计核心数据将环比增长 0.2%。</p>
<p>“我们认为，月增 0.2% 或更低将促使 FOMC 下周降息，” 澳大利亚联邦银行的货币策略师 Carol Kong 在客户报告中写道。</p>
<p>“我们的分析表明，核心 PCE 通胀仅有 0.1% 的温和增长风险。”</p>
<p>美元兑日元小幅变动，报 155.18 日元。</p>
<p>欧元兑美元持平，报 1.1647 美元，英镑在前一交易日从周三六周高点回落后，稳定在 1.3326 美元。</p>
<p>最近几天，美元承受额外压力，投资者还在权衡白宫经济顾问 Kevin Hassett 在杰罗姆·鲍威尔任期结束后接任美联储主席的前景。Hassett 预计将推动更多降息。</p>
<p>下周将有一系列中央银行的政策决定，澳大利亚储备银行将在周二召开，加拿大央行将在周三召开，瑞士国家银行将在周四召开。</p>
<p>接下来的一周，欧洲央行、英格兰银行、瑞典瑞典银行和日本银行也将制定政策。</p>
<p>三位政府官员告诉路透社，日本银行可能在本月加息，尽管之后的情况仍不确定，市场仅完全定价明年再加息一次，并有约 50% 的机会再加息一次。</p>
<p>澳元稳定在 0.6609 美元，周四曾跃升至两个月高点 0.6624 美元。</p>
<p>加拿大元兑美元小幅变动，报 1.3961 加元，而瑞士法郎在隔夜交易中从周三的两周高点 0.7992 大幅回落，稳定在每美元 0.8035。</p>

<p>美元兑主要货币徘徊在五周低点附近，投资者预计美联储将在下周降息。市场预期将降息 25 个基点，并可能在明年进一步降息。美元指数持平于 99.065，此前曾触及 98.765 的五周低点。交易员预计美联储降息的概率为 86%。关键经济数据，包括失业救济和通胀指标，正在影响市场预期。美元的表现还受到白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特可能成为美联储主席的猜测影响</p>

<p>By Kevin Buckland</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Kevin Buckland</p>
</div><p>The U.S. dollar languished not far from a five-week low against its major peers on Friday as investors braced for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五，美元在主要货币对中徘徊在五周低点附近，投资者为下周的美联储降息做准备。</p>
</div><p>Markets widely expect a quarter point reduction when the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets on December 9-10, and a focus will be on any signals about how much additional easing lies ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场普遍预计在 12 月 9 日至 10 日的货币政策制定会议上将降息 25 个基点，关注的焦点将是关于未来可能进一步宽松的任何信号。</p>
</div><p>The dollar index , which measures the currency against six rivals, was flat at 99.065 early in Asia. A small gain overnight snapped a nine-day losing streak, but the index had dipped to a five-week low of 98.765 earlier that session, and it remains on course for a 0.4% decline this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元指数衡量该货币对六种竞争货币的表现，周初在 99.065 持平。隔夜小幅上涨结束了连续九天的下跌，但该指数在当日早些时候曾跌至 98.765 的五周低点，预计本周将下跌 0.4%。</p>
</div><p>Traders are pricing around 86% odds of Fed cut next Wednesday, and potentially 2-3 more reductions next year, LSEG data showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易员预计下周三美联储降息的概率约为 86%，并可能在明年再降息 2-3 次，LSEG 数据显示。</p>
</div><p>Fed officials have been carefully watching the labour market to determine whether the economy needs further support.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储官员一直在仔细观察劳动力市场，以确定经济是否需要进一步支持。</p>
</div><p>Data overnight showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to a more than three-year low last week, but may have been skewed by the Thanksgiving holiday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隔夜数据显示，上周申请失业救济的新申请人数降至三年多来的最低水平，但可能受到感恩节假期的影响。</p>
</div><p>The data picture remains incomplete following the record-long government shutdown delayed some releases and prevented other data from ever being collected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于创纪录的政府关门延迟了一些数据发布，并阻止其他数据的收集，数据情况仍不完整。</p>
</div><p>Crucial monthly payrolls figures would ordinarily be published later on Friday, but have been delayed, and the previous month's numbers were never released.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键的月度就业数据通常会在周五晚些时候发布，但已被推迟，上个月的数据从未发布。</p>
</div><p>However, one of the Fed's preferred inflation gauges - the PCE deflator - will be published later on Friday, although the data is for September. Economists surveyed by LSEG expect a 0.2% monthly increase in the core number.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，美联储偏好的通胀指标之一——个人消费支出平减指数（PCE）将在周五晚些时候发布，尽管数据是针对九月份的。LSEG 调查的经济学家预计核心数据将环比增长 0.2%。</p>
</div><p>&#34;An increase of 0.2% per month or below will encourage the FOMC to cut the Funds rate next week in our view,&#34; Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency strategist Carol Kong wrote in a client note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们认为，月增 0.2% 或更低将促使 FOMC 下周降息，” 澳大利亚联邦银行的货币策略师 Carol Kong 在客户报告中写道。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Our analysis suggests the risk is a soft increase in core PCE inflation of only 0.1%.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们的分析表明，核心 PCE 通胀仅有 0.1% 的温和增长风险。”</p>
</div><p>The dollar was little changed at 155.18 yen .</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元兑日元小幅变动，报 155.18 日元。</p>
</div><p>The euro  was flat at $1.1647 and sterling  held steady at $1.3326 after easing back from Wednesday's six-week peak in the previous session.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧元兑美元持平，报 1.1647 美元，英镑在前一交易日从周三六周高点回落后，稳定在 1.3326 美元。</p>
</div><p>The dollar has come under additional pressure in recent days with investors also weighing the prospect of White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett taking over as Fed Chair after Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. Hassett is expected to push for more rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近几天，美元承受额外压力，投资者还在权衡白宫经济顾问 Kevin Hassett 在杰罗姆·鲍威尔任期结束后接任美联储主席的前景。Hassett 预计将推动更多降息。</p>
</div><p>Next week sees a parade of central bank policy decisions, with the Reserve Bank of Australia's coming on Tuesday, the Bank of Canada's on Wednesday and the Swiss National Bank's on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下周将有一系列中央银行的政策决定，澳大利亚储备银行将在周二召开，加拿大央行将在周三召开，瑞士国家银行将在周四召开。</p>
</div><p>That continues the following week with the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, Sweden's Riksbank, and the Bank of Japan setting policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下来的一周，欧洲央行、英格兰银行、瑞典瑞典银行和日本银行也将制定政策。</p>
</div><p>Three government officials told Reuters that the BOJ is likely to raise rates this month, although what comes after remains uncertain, with markets only fully pricing in one more rate hike next year and around a 50% chance of another.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三位政府官员告诉路透社，日本银行可能在本月加息，尽管之后的情况仍不确定，市场仅完全定价明年再加息一次，并有约 50% 的机会再加息一次。</p>
</div><p>The Aussie  was stable at $0.6609 after jumping to a two-month high of $0.6624 on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>澳元稳定在 0.6609 美元，周四曾跃升至两个月高点 0.6624 美元。</p>
</div><p>Canada's loonie  was little changed at C$1.3961 per greenback, while the Swiss franc  was steady at 0.8035 per dollar after dropping back sharply from Wednesday's two-week high of 0.7992 in the overnight session.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加拿大元兑美元小幅变动，报 1.3961 加元，而瑞士法郎在隔夜交易中从周三的两周高点 0.7992 大幅回落，稳定在每美元 0.8035。</p>
</div>

由于市场预期美联储将降息，美元徘徊在五周来的低点附近