<p>（欧洲交易期间的更新）</p><p>美国 9 月份个人消费支出数据即将公布</p><p>欧洲股市上涨，铜价创下历史新高</p><p>日本债券抛售，因日本央行加息信号日元走强</p><p>作者：阿曼达·库珀</p><p>伦敦，12 月 5 日（路透社）-</p><p>全球股市在周五上涨，预计将迎来连续第二周的涨幅，投资者对即将公布的美国通胀数据充满信心，认为这不会阻止美联储下周降息，这对美元造成压力并推动黄金上涨。</p><p>欧洲股市开盘走高，受矿业股上涨的推动，铜价创下历史新高。STOXX 600 指数（.STOXX）本周上涨 0.7%，到上午中段上涨 0.3%。美国股指期货（ESc1）（NQc1）上涨 0.2% 至 0.4%，预示华尔街稍后将出现温和反弹。</p><p>政府债券本周一直是市场活动的中心，在美国核心通胀数据公布前保持稳定交易。</p><h3>债券焦点</h3><p>日本政府债券本周引领全球债务抛售。10 年期日本国债收益率已达到</p><p>自 2007 年中以来的最高点</p><p>, 而 30 年期收益率创下历史新高，此前日本央行本周发出了最强烈的加息信号。</p><p>“如果他们真的采取行动，政策利率将上升至 0.75%，这是自 1995 年以来的最高水平，” 德意志银行策略师吉姆·里德表示。“这导致日本资产出现鹰派反应，日元今晨对美元升值 0.18%，而日经指数下跌 1.29%。”</p><p>美元（JPY=）当天最后下跌 0.1%，报 154.91 日元，低于上周的 10 个月高点 157.9。</p><p>周五美元承受广泛压力，经过连续九个交易日下跌后，隔夜有所企稳。美元指数（=USD）下跌 0.1%，报 99，周跌幅为 0.5%。</p><p>由于市场普遍预期日本央行将加息，而美联储则恢复降息，投资者正在购买日元以对抗美元，因为两国的利率逐渐接近。交易者通常借入日元，然后卖出日元购买收益更高的美元资产，如科技股或加密货币，这被称为套利交易。日元走强使得投资于这一交易的数十亿美元面临风险。</p><p>‘一次性解决？’</p><p>“关于这次（日本央行会议）有趣的是：‘这是否是一次性解决？’ 我认为这将是美联储和日本央行的重点，” 城市指数策略师菲奥娜·辛科塔表示。“所以尽管我们已经进入 12 月，事情应该逐渐平息，但仍然有两个主要风险事件。”</p><p>美元疲软的原因是市场预期美联储将在下周三降息 25 个基点，并在 2026 年至少再降息两次。</p><p>尽管市场对美联储降息的预期达到 90%，但这可能是美联储多年来最具争议的决定，因为多达 12 名投票成员中有五名公开表示反对进一步降息。</p><p>接下来是 9 月份的个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数——美联储首选的通胀指标——预计核心指标将上升 0.2%，使年率保持在 2.9% 不变。</p><p>周四的数据表明</p><p>失业救济申请</p><p>上周下降，缓解了对劳动力市场急剧恶化的担忧，但这可能是由于感恩节假期。</p><p>周五国债收益率在前一天上涨后保持稳定。两年期国债收益率（US2YT=RR）下跌 1 个基点至 3.527%，在隔夜上涨 5 个基点后，10 年期收益率（US10YT=RR）几乎没有变化，报 4.11%。</p><h3>铜价飙升</h3><p>在商品市场，基准铜期货（CMCU3）早些时候创下每吨 11,705 美元的历史新高，此前花旗基于供应担忧和对美联储降息的预期上调了价格预测。</p><p>布伦特原油（LCOc1）期货预计本周将下跌 0.2%，报每桶 63.2 美元，日内下跌约 0.1%，而黄金（XAU=）上涨 0.3%，报每盎司 4,221 美元。白银（XAG=）上涨 1.7%，报每盎司 58 美元。</p>

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<p>全球股市上涨，投资者预计美联储将降息，导致美元走弱，推动黄金上涨。欧洲股市因矿业股票上涨而获利，而日本债券因日本银行加息信号而遭到抛售。日元走强，影响了套利交易。铜价创下历史新高，美元指数下跌。美联储预期的降息和日本银行可能的加息是关键关注点，接下来美国个人消费支出数据将影响决策。国债收益率保持稳定，黄金和白银等商品价格上涨</p>

<p>(Updates throughout with European trading)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（欧洲交易期间的更新）</p>
</div><p>US PCE data for September due later</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国 9 月份个人消费支出数据即将公布</p>
</div><p>European stocks rise, copper hits record highs</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲股市上涨，铜价创下历史新高</p>
</div><p>Japanese bonds sell off, yen strengthens on BOJ rate-hike signals</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本债券抛售，因日本央行加息信号日元走强</p>
</div><p>By Amanda Cooper</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：阿曼达·库珀</p>
</div><p>LONDON, Dec 5 (Reuters) -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦，12 月 5 日（路透社）-</p>
</div><p>Global shares rose on Friday, heading for a second week of gains, ahead of a key read of U.S. inflation that investors are confident will not prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting rates next week, which weighed on the dollar and boosted gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球股市在周五上涨，预计将迎来连续第二周的涨幅，投资者对即将公布的美国通胀数据充满信心，认为这不会阻止美联储下周降息，这对美元造成压力并推动黄金上涨。</p>
</div><p>European stock markets opened higher, propelled by gains in mining stocks, after the price of copper hit record highs. The STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , which has gained 0.7% this week, was up 0.3% by mid-morning. U.S. stock futures (ESc1) (NQc1) were up 0.2% to 0.4%, pointing to a modest rally on Wall Street later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲股市开盘走高，受矿业股上涨的推动，铜价创下历史新高。STOXX 600 指数（.STOXX）本周上涨 0.7%，到上午中段上涨 0.3%。美国股指期货（ESc1）（NQc1）上涨 0.2% 至 0.4%，预示华尔街稍后将出现温和反弹。</p>
</div><p>Government bonds, which have been at the centre of a lot of market action this week, traded steadily ahead of monthly U.S. core inflation data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政府债券本周一直是市场活动的中心，在美国核心通胀数据公布前保持稳定交易。</p>
</div><h3>BONDS IN FOCUS</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>债券焦点</h3>
</div><p>Japanese government bonds have led a global debt selloff this week. Yields on 10-year JGBs have hit their</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本政府债券本周引领全球债务抛售。10 年期日本国债收益率已达到</p>
</div><p>highest point since mid-2007</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2007 年中以来的最高点</p>
</div><p>, while 30-year yields have hit record highs, after the Bank of Japan gave its strongest signal yet this week that rates were likely to rise this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>, 而 30 年期收益率创下历史新高，此前日本央行本周发出了最强烈的加息信号。</p>
</div><p>“If they do proceed, that would take the policy rate up to 0.75%, the highest since 1995,” said Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank. “That’s led to a hawkish reaction among Japanese assets, with the yen strengthening 0.18% this morning against the U.S. dollar, whilst the Nikkei is down 1.29%.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果他们真的采取行动，政策利率将上升至 0.75%，这是自 1995 年以来的最高水平，” 德意志银行策略师吉姆·里德表示。“这导致日本资产出现鹰派反应，日元今晨对美元升值 0.18%，而日经指数下跌 1.29%。”</p>
</div><p>The dollar (JPY=) was last down 0.1% on the day at 154.91 yen, off last week’s 10-month high of 157.9.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元（JPY=）当天最后下跌 0.1%，报 154.91 日元，低于上周的 10 个月高点 157.9。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. currency was under broad pressure on Friday, having steadied overnight after falling for nine straight sessions. The dollar index (=USD) was down 0.1% to 99 - and down 0.5% for the week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五美元承受广泛压力，经过连续九个交易日下跌后，隔夜有所企稳。美元指数（=USD）下跌 0.1%，报 99，周跌幅为 0.5%。</p>
</div><p>With the BOJ widely expected to deliver a rate rise just as the Fed resumes cutting, investors are buying the Japanese yen against the dollar as interest rates in the two countries edged towards one another. Traders frequently borrow the yen to then sell it and buy higher-yielding assets in dollars, like tech stocks or cryptocurrencies - this is known as a carry trade. A stronger yen puts billions of dollars invested in this trade at risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于市场普遍预期日本央行将加息，而美联储则恢复降息，投资者正在购买日元以对抗美元，因为两国的利率逐渐接近。交易者通常借入日元，然后卖出日元购买收益更高的美元资产，如科技股或加密货币，这被称为套利交易。日元走强使得投资于这一交易的数十亿美元面临风险。</p>
</div><p>‘ONE AND DONE?’</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>‘一次性解决？’</p>
</div><p>“What’s going to be interesting about that (BOJ meeting): is, is ‘it one and done?’ I think that’s going to be the big focus for both central banks, for the Fed and for the BOJ,” said City Index strategist Fiona Cincotta. “So it feels like even though we’re in December and things should be winding down, there are still two major risk events.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“关于这次（日本央行会议）有趣的是：‘这是否是一次性解决？’ 我认为这将是美联储和日本央行的重点，” 城市指数策略师菲奥娜·辛科塔表示。“所以尽管我们已经进入 12 月，事情应该逐渐平息，但仍然有两个主要风险事件。”</p>
</div><p>The weakness in the U.S. currency has been driven by expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by a quarter point next Wednesday and deliver at least two reductions in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元疲软的原因是市场预期美联储将在下周三降息 25 个基点，并在 2026 年至少再降息两次。</p>
</div><p>While markets are 90% priced for a Fed rate cut, it could be the most contentious decision in years for the central bank because as many as five of the 12 voting members have publicly said they oppose reducing rates further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管市场对美联储降息的预期达到 90%，但这可能是美联储多年来最具争议的决定，因为多达 12 名投票成员中有五名公开表示反对进一步降息。</p>
</div><p>Next up is the September personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation - which is expected to show a 0.2% rise in the core measure, leaving the annual rate unchanged at 2.9%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下来是 9 月份的个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数——美联储首选的通胀指标——预计核心指标将上升 0.2%，使年率保持在 2.9% 不变。</p>
</div><p>Data on Thursday showed</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四的数据表明</p>
</div><p>jobless claims</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>失业救济申请</p>
</div><p>fell last week, assuaging concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labour market, but that might be due to the Thanksgiving holiday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周下降，缓解了对劳动力市场急剧恶化的担忧，但这可能是由于感恩节假期。</p>
</div><p>Treasury yields held steady on Friday after rising the previous day. Two-year Treasury yields (US2YT=RR) fell 1 basis point to 3.527%, having risen 5 basis points overnight, while the 10-year yield (US10YT=RR) was virtually unchanged at 4.11%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五国债收益率在前一天上涨后保持稳定。两年期国债收益率（US2YT=RR）下跌 1 个基点至 3.527%，在隔夜上涨 5 个基点后，10 年期收益率（US10YT=RR）几乎没有变化，报 4.11%。</p>
</div><h3>COPPER SURGES</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>铜价飙升</h3>
</div><p>In commodities, benchmark copper futures (CMCU3) hit an all-time high of $11,705 a tonne earlier, after Citi upgraded its price forecast based on supply concerns and expectations for a Fed rate cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在商品市场，基准铜期货（CMCU3）早些时候创下每吨 11,705 美元的历史新高，此前花旗基于供应担忧和对美联储降息的预期上调了价格预测。</p>
</div><p>Brent crude (LCOc1) futures were set to end the week 0.2% lower at $63.2 a barrel, down around 0.1% on the day, while gold (XAU=) was up 0.3% to $4,221 an ounce. Silver (XAG=) was up 1.7% at $58 an ounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特原油（LCOc1）期货预计本周将下跌 0.2%，报每桶 63.2 美元，日内下跌约 0.1%，而黄金（XAU=）上涨 0.3%，报每盎司 4,221 美元。白银（XAG=）上涨 1.7%，报每盎司 58 美元。</p>
</div>

全球市场——股市上涨，美元走软，投资者准备迎接美联储降息