<p>要点：</p>
<ul>
<li>与人工智能相关的债务发行激增，科技公司为数据中心融资</li>
<li>投资级别的担忧是特定发行人相关，高收益债务的担忧则是行业普遍存在</li>
<li>英国央行警告人工智能债务带来的系统性风险</li>
<li>信用基本面总体保持韧性</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：Lucy Raitano</p>
<p>根据摩根士丹利的新研究，投资者对与人工智能相关的债务激增的焦虑在投资级别和高收益债券之间表现不同。</p>
<p>今年与人工智能相关的发行量激增，科技巨头和新兴人工智能公司开始转向债务市场，以帮助资助全球数据中心的建设，同时也使用股权和现金储备。但一些投资者对这一趋势感到不安，与人工智能相关的债券表现不及更广泛的信用市场。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利在周四晚间发布的一份报告中表示，投资级别信用的担忧似乎更具特定发行人相关性，而在高收益债务中，担忧则更为行业普遍。</p>
<p>投资者变得挑剔，看到机会</p>
<p>Neuberger 投资级别信用团队的投资组合经理兼高级交易员 Christopher Kramer 在最近接受路透社采访时表示，科技公司向与人工智能相关的债务发行的剧烈结构性转变为选择性投资者创造了机会，尽管仍然会存在&#34;有与没有&#34;的差别。</p>
<p>他说：&#34;在资产负债表上的信用工作与资产负债表外的信用工作之间的区分仍然至关重要。&#34;</p>
<p>&#34;但证券选择将成为游戏的关键，我们对此感到兴奋，因为市场正在变化。&#34;</p>
<p>他没有评论 Neuberger 是否投资了最近发行的高质量人工智能债券，该公司管理的资产总额达到 5580 亿美元。</p>
<p>英国央行本周再次警告，人工智能基础设施繁荣中债务的日益重要性可能会在估值修正时加剧潜在的金融稳定风险。同时，人工智能股票的估值仍然偏高。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利表示，整体信用市场看起来基本健康，但与人工智能相关的债务在过去一个月中表现不佳。</p>
<p>发行人风险与行业风险</p>
<p>剔除直接人工智能发行人的一篮子与人工智能相关的行业在 2025 年超越了一篮子非金融债券 15 个基点。但包括直接发行人的与人工智能相关的行业债券篮子在年初至今表现不及同样的非金融债券篮子 70 个基点，该银行表示。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利表示，这表明投资者对特定发行人而非行业本身在投资级别市场中感到担忧。</p>
<p>高收益债务方面的同样比较显示，人工智能行业的整体下滑。</p>
<p>与人工智能相关的高收益债券和行业匹配的篮子在 2025 年的大部分时间内大致同步，但自 11 月初以来出现了明显的分歧，因为来自直接人工智能发行人的高收益债券表现不佳。摩根士丹利表示，这种分歧反映了高收益市场中更微妙的情况，因为其参与者较少且间接暴露。</p>
<p>执行风险让一些人却步</p>
<p>Mirabaud 的固定收益投资组合经理兼高级分析师 Al Cattermole 告诉路透社，截至 11 月 25 日，他的团队选择不投资最近进入市场的任何与人工智能相关的投资级别或垃圾债券，理由是某些交易中的执行风险和不透明的合同。</p>
<p>他说：&#34;在我们看到数据中心按时按预算交付并提供预期的计算能力，并且仍然有需求之前，这一切都是未经检验的。&#34;</p>
<p>&#34;而因为它是未经检验的，所以我认为你需要像股权一样获得补偿……而不是债务。&#34;</p>
<p>（$1 = 0.8030 瑞士法郎）</p>

高盛

<p>高盛的研究强调了投资级债券与高收益债券中投资者对与人工智能相关的债务的不同关注点。投资级债务的担忧是特定于发行人的，而高收益债务的担忧则是行业范围的。尽管与人工智能相关的债务发行激增，这些债券的表现却不及整体市场。英格兰银行警告潜在的金融稳定风险。投资者如 Neuberger 和 Mirabaud 表示谨慎，指出执行风险和需要仔细选择证券</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要点：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>AI-linked debt issuance surges as tech firms fund data centers</li>
<li>Investment grade concerns are issuer-specific, high-yield concerns are sector-wide</li>
<li>Bank of England flags systemic risks from AI debt</li>
<li>Credit fundamentals generally remain resilient</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>与人工智能相关的债务发行激增，科技公司为数据中心融资</li>
<li>投资级别的担忧是特定发行人相关，高收益债务的担忧则是行业普遍存在</li>
<li>英国央行警告人工智能债务带来的系统性风险</li>
<li>信用基本面总体保持韧性</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Lucy Raitano</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Lucy Raitano</p>
</div><p>Investor anxiety about the surge in AI-related debt is playing out differently across investment grade and high yield bonds, according to new research from Goldman Sachs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据摩根士丹利的新研究，投资者对与人工智能相关的债务激增的焦虑在投资级别和高收益债券之间表现不同。</p>
</div><p>There has been a surge in AI-linked issuance this year, as big tech firms and new AI players started turning to debt markets to help fund the global data centre build-out, alongside using equity and cash reserves. But some investors have been jittery about the trend, and AI-linked bonds are underperforming the broader credit market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年与人工智能相关的发行量激增，科技巨头和新兴人工智能公司开始转向债务市场，以帮助资助全球数据中心的建设，同时也使用股权和现金储备。但一些投资者对这一趋势感到不安，与人工智能相关的债券表现不及更广泛的信用市场。</p>
</div><p>In a note released late on Thursday, Goldman Sachs says the worries appear to be more issuer-specific when it comes to investment grade credit, while in high yield, the concern is more sector-wide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利在周四晚间发布的一份报告中表示，投资级别信用的担忧似乎更具特定发行人相关性，而在高收益债务中，担忧则更为行业普遍。</p>
</div><p>INVESTORS GET CHOOSY, SEE OPPORTUNITY</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者变得挑剔，看到机会</p>
</div><p>Christopher Kramer, portfolio manager and senior trader on the investment grade credit team at Neuberger, told Reuters in a recent interview that the dramatic structural shift to AI-linked debt issuance by big tech companies creates opportunities for selective investors, though there will still be &#34;haves and have nots&#34;.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Neuberger 投资级别信用团队的投资组合经理兼高级交易员 Christopher Kramer 在最近接受路透社采访时表示，科技公司向与人工智能相关的债务发行的剧烈结构性转变为选择性投资者创造了机会，尽管仍然会存在&#34;有与没有&#34;的差别。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Doing the credit work on the 'on balance' sheet versus 'off balance' sheet continues to be paramount,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说：&#34;在资产负债表上的信用工作与资产负债表外的信用工作之间的区分仍然至关重要。&#34;</p>
</div><p>&#34;But security selection is going to be the name of the game and we're excited just from the standpoint that the market's changing.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;但证券选择将成为游戏的关键，我们对此感到兴奋，因为市场正在变化。&#34;</p>
</div><p>He did not comment on whether Neuberger, which manages assets amounting to $558 billion, had invested in any recent issuance of top quality AI bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他没有评论 Neuberger 是否投资了最近发行的高质量人工智能债券，该公司管理的资产总额达到 5580 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>The Bank of England again warned this week that the growing role of debt in the AI infrastructure boom could heighten potential financial stability risks if valuations correct. Meanwhile AI stock valuations remain stretched.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英国央行本周再次警告，人工智能基础设施繁荣中债务的日益重要性可能会在估值修正时加剧潜在的金融稳定风险。同时，人工智能股票的估值仍然偏高。</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs says the overall credit market is looking fundamentally healthy, but the underperformance of AI-related debt has grown over the past month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利表示，整体信用市场看起来基本健康，但与人工智能相关的债务在过去一个月中表现不佳。</p>
</div><p>ISSUER RISK VS SECTOR RISK</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>发行人风险与行业风险</p>
</div><p>A basket of AI-related sectors that strips out direct AI issuers has outperformed a basket of non-financial bonds by 15 basis points in 2025. But a basket of AI-related sector bonds that includes direct issuers has underperformed the same non-financials basket by 70 bps year to date, the bank said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剔除直接人工智能发行人的一篮子与人工智能相关的行业在 2025 年超越了一篮子非金融债券 15 个基点。但包括直接发行人的与人工智能相关的行业债券篮子在年初至今表现不及同样的非金融债券篮子 70 个基点，该银行表示。</p>
</div><p>Goldman says this shows investors are worried about specific issuers rather than the sector itself in the investment grade market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利表示，这表明投资者对特定发行人而非行业本身在投资级别市场中感到担忧。</p>
</div><p>The same comparison on the high yield side shows a broader drawdown for the AI-sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高收益债务方面的同样比较显示，人工智能行业的整体下滑。</p>
</div><p>AI-linked high-yield bonds and a sector-matched basket moved broadly in tandem for most of 2025, but have diverged sharply since early November, as high-yield bonds from direct AI issuers underperformed. Goldman says this divergence reflects a more nuanced picture in high-yield given its smaller cohort and indirect exposures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与人工智能相关的高收益债券和行业匹配的篮子在 2025 年的大部分时间内大致同步，但自 11 月初以来出现了明显的分歧，因为来自直接人工智能发行人的高收益债券表现不佳。摩根士丹利表示，这种分歧反映了高收益市场中更微妙的情况，因为其参与者较少且间接暴露。</p>
</div><p>EXECUTION RISK PUTS SOME OFF</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>执行风险让一些人却步</p>
</div><p>Al Cattermole, fixed income portfolio manager and senior analyst at Mirabaud, which manages assets amounting to around 30 billion Swiss francs ($37.4 billion), told Reuters that as of November 25, his team chose not to invest in any of the AI-linked investment-grade or junk bonds that recently hit the market, citing execution risk and opaque contracts in some deals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Mirabaud 的固定收益投资组合经理兼高级分析师 Al Cattermole 告诉路透社，截至 11 月 25 日，他的团队选择不投资最近进入市场的任何与人工智能相关的投资级别或垃圾债券，理由是某些交易中的执行风险和不透明的合同。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Until we see data centres being delivered on time and on budget and providing the computing power that they are intended to - and there still being the demand for it - it is untested,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说：&#34;在我们看到数据中心按时按预算交付并提供预期的计算能力，并且仍然有需求之前，这一切都是未经检验的。&#34;</p>
</div><p>&#34;And because it's untested, that's why I think you need to be compensated like an equity...not debt.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;而因为它是未经检验的，所以我认为你需要像股权一样获得补偿……而不是债务。&#34;</p>
</div><p>($1 = 0.8030 Swiss francs)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（$1 = 0.8030 瑞士法郎）</p>
</div>

高盛表示，人工智能信贷问题在投资级和高收益债券市场中的表现有所不同