<p>要点：</p>
<ul>
<li>华尔街股票连续第二周上涨</li>
<li>欧洲股票收盘持平，铜价创下历史新高</li>
<li>日本债券抛售，日元因日本央行加息信号而走强</li>
<li>美国 9 月个人消费支出数据符合预期</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：Chibuike Oguh 和 Amanda Cooper</p>
<p>全球股市在周五上涨，因为美国关键经济数据巩固了投资者对下周美联储降息的预期，这一可能性对美元施加了压力，并推动了黄金的上涨。</p>
<p>华尔街股票收盘上涨，连续第二周上涨，通信服务、消费品和科技股领涨。公用事业、能源和医疗保健股票则拖累了市场表现。</p>
<p>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 0.22%，标准普尔 500 指数上涨 0.19%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨 0.31%。</p>
<p>欧洲股市收盘变化不大，本周小幅上涨 0.41%。MSCI 全球股票指数 EURONEXT:IACWI 上涨 0.06%，连续第二个交易日上涨。</p>
<p>降息预期已被计入</p>
<p>9 月份，个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数——美联储首选的通胀指标——上涨 0.3%，符合分析师预期。美国 9 月份消费者支出小幅增加，但较上月有所放缓，表明经济动能减弱，依据美国商务部的数据。</p>
<p>该报告因创纪录的 43 天政府停摆而延迟发布。</p>
<p>根据密歇根大学的调查，最近的数据表明，美国消费者信心在 12 月初有所改善，但对高物价和劳动力市场的担忧依然存在。</p>
<p>市场普遍预计美联储将在下周的政策会议结束时降息 25 个基点。根据 CME 的 FedWatch 工具，投资者预计降息的可能性接近 90%。</p>
<p>“美联储对市场非常宽松——尤其是它提前很好地传达了降息的信号——因此这些股票市场在年末前看起来相当不错，” 休斯顿 SanJac Alpha 的首席投资官 Andrew Wells 表示。</p>
<p>“美联储会降息。我认为这几乎没有疑问，并且已经被市场计入，” Wells 说。</p>
<p>在货币市场，欧元兑美元持平，报 1.645 美元。美元兑日元上涨 0.14%，报 155.30 日元。</p>
<p>美元在主要货币中下跌，此前在前一个交易日结束了连续 9 天的下跌。美元受到美联储降息预期的压力。</p>
<p>美元指数衡量美元对包括日元和欧元在内的一篮子货币的表现，下跌 0.10%，报 98.98，连续第二周下跌。</p>
<p>债券市场关注</p>
<p>日本政府债券本周引领全球债务抛售。10 年期日本国债收益率达到自 2007 年中以来的最高点，而 30 年期收益率创下历史新高，此前日本央行发出了最强烈的加息信号。</p>
<p>“如果他们继续这样做，政策利率将上升至 0.75%，这是自 1995 年以来的最高水平，” 德意志银行的策略师 Jim Reid 表示。</p>
<p>“这导致日本资产出现鹰派反应，日元今晨对美元上涨 0.18%，而日经指数下跌 1.29%。” 他说。</p>
<p>由于市场普遍预计日本央行将在美联储恢复降息时加息，投资者正在购买日元以对抗美元，因为两国的利率逐渐接近。</p>
<p>交易者通常借入日元，然后将其出售并购买收益更高的美元资产，如科技股或加密货币——这种做法被称为套利交易。更强的日元使得投资于这一交易的数十亿美元面临风险。</p>
<p>基准美国 10 年期国债收益率上涨 2.9 个基点，报 4.137%。通常与美联储利率预期同步的两年期国债（US2YT=RR）收益率上涨 3.4 个基点，报 3.565%。</p>
<p>铜价飙升</p>
<p>在商品市场，基准铜期货早些时候创下每公吨 11,705 美元的历史新高，此前花旗基于供应担忧和对美联储降息的预期上调了价格预测。</p>
<p>布伦特原油期货上涨 0.8%，收于每桶 63.75 美元，而美国西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）上涨 0.7%，收于每桶 60.08 美元。黄金下跌 0.17%，报每盎司 4,200.40 美元。白银上涨 2.25%，报每盎司 58.41 美元。</p>

纳斯达克 OMX 交易所

<p>全球股市上涨，投资者预计美联储将降息，推动华尔街股票连续第二周上涨。道琼斯指数、标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克指数均有所上涨，而欧洲股票则保持平稳。由于市场对美联储降息的预期，美元走弱，预计将连续第二周下跌。日本债券遭到抛售，日元因日本央行加息信号而走强。铜价创下历史新高，布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油上涨，而黄金略微下跌</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要点：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Wall Street stocks notch second straight week of gains</li>
<li>European stocks finish flat, copper hits record highs</li>
<li>Japanese bonds sell off, yen strengthens on BOJ rate-hike signals</li>
<li>US September PCE data rises in line with expectations</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>华尔街股票连续第二周上涨</li>
<li>欧洲股票收盘持平，铜价创下历史新高</li>
<li>日本债券抛售，日元因日本央行加息信号而走强</li>
<li>美国 9 月个人消费支出数据符合预期</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Chibuike Oguh and Amanda Cooper</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Chibuike Oguh 和 Amanda Cooper</p>
</div><p>Global shares gained on Friday, after key U.S. economic data solidified investor expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, a likelihood that weighed on the dollar and boosted gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球股市在周五上涨，因为美国关键经济数据巩固了投资者对下周美联储降息的预期，这一可能性对美元施加了压力，并推动了黄金的上涨。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street stocks finished higher and notched a second straight week of gains, with communication services, consumer discretionary, and technology leading the pack. Utilities, energy and healthcare stocks drove losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街股票收盘上涨，连续第二周上涨，通信服务、消费品和科技股领涨。公用事业、能源和医疗保健股票则拖累了市场表现。</p>
</div><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average  rose 0.22%, the S&amp;P 500  rose 0.19%, and the Nasdaq Composite  rose 0.31%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 0.22%，标准普尔 500 指数上涨 0.19%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨 0.31%。</p>
</div><p>European stock markets  finished little changed and secured a modest 0.41% gain for the week. MSCI's index of stocks across the globe EURONEXT:IACWI edged up 0.06%, on track for the second straight session of gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲股市收盘变化不大，本周小幅上涨 0.41%。MSCI 全球股票指数 EURONEXT:IACWI 上涨 0.06%，连续第二个交易日上涨。</p>
</div><p>FED CUT PRICED IN</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>降息预期已被计入</p>
</div><p>In September, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index - which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - increased 0.3%, in line with analyst expectations. U.S. consumer spending increased marginally in September but eased from the prior month, suggesting a loss of momentum in the economy, according to U.S. Commerce Department data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>9 月份，个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数——美联储首选的通胀指标——上涨 0.3%，符合分析师预期。美国 9 月份消费者支出小幅增加，但较上月有所放缓，表明经济动能减弱，依据美国商务部的数据。</p>
</div><p>The report was delayed by a record 43-day government shutdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该报告因创纪录的 43 天政府停摆而延迟发布。</p>
</div><p>In more recent data, U.S. consumer sentiment improved in early December, but worries about high prices and the labor market persisted, a University of Michigan survey showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据密歇根大学的调查，最近的数据表明，美国消费者信心在 12 月初有所改善，但对高物价和劳动力市场的担忧依然存在。</p>
</div><p>The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of its policy meeting next week. Investors are pricing in a near 90% chance of a rate cut, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场普遍预计美联储将在下周的政策会议结束时降息 25 个基点。根据 CME 的 FedWatch 工具，投资者预计降息的可能性接近 90%。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The Fed has been so accommodative to markets - especially as it's telegraphing really well its rate cuts in advance - that these equities markets look in pretty good shape going into the end of the year,&#34; said Andrew Wells, chief investment officer at SanJac Alpha in Houston.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“美联储对市场非常宽松——尤其是它提前很好地传达了降息的信号——因此这些股票市场在年末前看起来相当不错，” 休斯顿 SanJac Alpha 的首席投资官 Andrew Wells 表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The Fed will cut. I think there's very little question about that and it's priced in,&#34; Wells said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“美联储会降息。我认为这几乎没有疑问，并且已经被市场计入，” Wells 说。</p>
</div><p>In currency markets, the euro  was flat at $1.645 against the dollar. The dollar was up 0.14% at 155.30 against the Japanese yen .</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在货币市场，欧元兑美元持平，报 1.645 美元。美元兑日元上涨 0.14%，报 155.30 日元。</p>
</div><p>The dollar was down against major currencies after snapping a 9-day losing streak in the previous session. The greenback has been weighed down by Fed rate cut expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元在主要货币中下跌，此前在前一个交易日结束了连续 9 天的下跌。美元受到美联储降息预期的压力。</p>
</div><p>The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, eased 0.10% to 98.98. It is set for a second straight week of losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元指数衡量美元对包括日元和欧元在内的一篮子货币的表现，下跌 0.10%，报 98.98，连续第二周下跌。</p>
</div><p>BONDS IN FOCUS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>债券市场关注</p>
</div><p>Japanese government bonds have led a global debt selloff this week. Yields on 10-year JGBs have hit their highest point since mid-2007, while 30-year yields have hit record highs, after the Bank of Japan gave its strongest signal yet that rates were likely to rise this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本政府债券本周引领全球债务抛售。10 年期日本国债收益率达到自 2007 年中以来的最高点，而 30 年期收益率创下历史新高，此前日本央行发出了最强烈的加息信号。</p>
</div><p>&#34;If they do proceed, that would take the policy rate up to 0.75%, the highest since 1995,&#34; said Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果他们继续这样做，政策利率将上升至 0.75%，这是自 1995 年以来的最高水平，” 德意志银行的策略师 Jim Reid 表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;That’s led to a hawkish reaction among Japanese assets, with the yen strengthening 0.18% this morning against the U.S. dollar, whilst the Nikkei is down 1.29%,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这导致日本资产出现鹰派反应，日元今晨对美元上涨 0.18%，而日经指数下跌 1.29%。” 他说。</p>
</div><p>With the BOJ widely expected to deliver a rate rise just as the Fed resumes cutting, investors are buying the Japanese yen against the dollar as interest rates in the two countries edged toward each other.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于市场普遍预计日本央行将在美联储恢复降息时加息，投资者正在购买日元以对抗美元，因为两国的利率逐渐接近。</p>
</div><p>Traders frequently borrow the yen to then sell it and buy higher-yielding assets in dollars, like tech stocks or cryptocurrencies - a practice known as a carry trade. A stronger yen puts billions of dollars invested in this trade at risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者通常借入日元，然后将其出售并购买收益更高的美元资产，如科技股或加密货币——这种做法被称为套利交易。更强的日元使得投资于这一交易的数十亿美元面临风险。</p>
</div><p>The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes  rose 2.9 basis points to 4.137%. The two-year note (US2YT=RR) yield, which typically moves in step with Fed rate expectations, rose 3.4 basis points to 3.565%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基准美国 10 年期国债收益率上涨 2.9 个基点，报 4.137%。通常与美联储利率预期同步的两年期国债（US2YT=RR）收益率上涨 3.4 个基点，报 3.565%。</p>
</div><p>COPPER SURGES</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铜价飙升</p>
</div><p>In commodities, benchmark copper futures  hit an all-time high of $11,705 a metric ton earlier, after Citi upgraded its price forecast based on supply concerns and expectations for a Fed rate cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在商品市场，基准铜期货早些时候创下每公吨 11,705 美元的历史新高，此前花旗基于供应担忧和对美联储降息的预期上调了价格预测。</p>
</div><p>Brent crude  futures rose 0.8% to settle at $63.75 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.7% to settle at $60.08. Gold  fell 0.17% at $4,200.40 an ounce. Silver  was up 2.25% at $58.41 an ounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特原油期货上涨 0.8%，收于每桶 63.75 美元，而美国西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）上涨 0.7%，收于每桶 60.08 美元。黄金下跌 0.17%，报每盎司 4,200.40 美元。白银上涨 2.25%，报每盎司 58.41 美元。</p>
</div>

股市上涨，美元连续第二周下跌，投资者关注美联储的降息