<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Oil-drill-pumping.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Oil-drill-pumping.png"/></p>
<p>周四的盘中交易中，原油价格在触及三周新低后暂停了下跌趋势。美元走弱帮助抵消了前一交易 session 的部分损失，使得持有外币的买家购买该商品时成本降低。</p>
<p>尽管如此，随着市场消化最新的行业报告，原油仍然面临卖压，这些报告指出未来一年供应与需求之间的不平衡。截至撰写时，WTI 原油价格为 59.03 美元。随后，跟踪美国油基准表现的 USO ETF 正在测试 70 美元的关键支撑位。</p>
<h2>原油市场报告显示供应过剩加剧</h2>
<p>对供应与需求不平衡的担忧正在压制原油价格，最新的行业报告进一步加重了投资者的悲观情绪。例如，OPEC 预计全球石油供应在未来一年将略微超过需求。有趣的是，这与他们之前对全球供应短缺的预测形成了对比。</p>
<p>与此同时，国际能源署（IEA）估计全球石油供应可能超过需求，创下 400 万桶/日的历史新高。然而，它仍将石油视为战略商品，表明其需求可能在 2050 年达到峰值。这一展望基于电动车的采用速度较慢。</p>
<p>与此同时，美国石油协会（API）的数据显示，截至 11 月 7 日的一周，库存激增。尽管汽油库存的下降表明美国消费者的韧性，原油库存仍增加了 130 万桶。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，美元走弱和 IEA 报告带来的乐观情绪帮助油价从周四早些时候触及的三周低点反弹。然而，布伦特和 WTI 基准油价都面临连续第三周的下跌。</p>
<h2>USO 原油价格技术分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/crude-oil-price-1-1024x579.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/crude-oil-price-1-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p>原油价格图表 | 来源：TradingView</p>
<p>USO 原油价格在过去三周内一直处于区间波动中，因对即将到来的供应与需求不平衡的担忧抑制了其上涨潜力。从日线图来看，进一步的卖压正在形成，空头试图突破当前的 70 美元支撑区，并重新测试 10 月中旬的 68.50 美元水平。这是在几份行业报告加剧了过剩担忧之后。</p>
<p>在当前水平下，USO 原油价格低于短期 25 日指数移动平均线（EMA）和中期 50 日 EMA。自 10 月初以来，空头死亡交叉形态已经形成，表明油价的压力远未结束。</p>
<p>在当前 70.43 美元的水平上，多头仍有机会吸引更多买家并捍卫 70 美元附近的关键支撑。然而，如果价格跌破 69.45 美元，这与 6 月中旬 25 日和 50 日 EMA 的交汇点相符，将给卖方提供机会将价格压低至 68.05 美元。相反，若价格反弹突破 25 日 EMA 的 71.50 美元，可能会激活 72.50 美元的阻力位。</p>
<p>原油价格分析：2026 年预测与 2025 年数据的对比，首发于 Invezz</p>

<p>原油价格暂停了下跌趋势，受到美元走弱的影响。行业报告显示供需失衡，OPEC 和 IEA 预测 2026 年将出现过剩。技术分析显示 USO 油价面临卖压，正在测试 70 美元的支撑位。如果跌破 69.45 美元，可能会进一步压低价格，而如果反弹超过 71.50 美元，则可能激活 72.50 美元的阻力位</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Oil-drill-pumping.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Oil-drill-pumping.png"/></p>
<p>Crude oil price paused on its downtrend in Thursday’s intraday trade after hitting a fresh three-week low earlier in the session. A weaker US dollar helped offset some losses from the previous session by rendering the commodity less expensive for buyers holding foreign currencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四的盘中交易中，原油价格在触及三周新低后暂停了下跌趋势。美元走弱帮助抵消了前一交易 session 的部分损失，使得持有外币的买家购买该商品时成本降低。</p>
</div><p>Nonetheless, it remains under selling pressure as the market digests the latest industry reports, which point to a supply-demand imbalance into the coming year. At the time of writing, WTI oil price was at $59.03. Subsequently, the USO ETF, which tracks the performance of the US oil benchmark, is testing the crucial support at $70.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，随着市场消化最新的行业报告，原油仍然面临卖压，这些报告指出未来一年供应与需求之间的不平衡。截至撰写时，WTI 原油价格为 59.03 美元。随后，跟踪美国油基准表现的 USO ETF 正在测试 70 美元的关键支撑位。</p>
</div><h2>Oil market reports point to growing surplus</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>原油市场报告显示供应过剩加剧</h2>
</div><p>Concerns over a supply-demand imbalance are weighing on crude oil prices, with the latest industry reports adding to the bearish investor sentiment. For instance, OPEC expects the global oil supply to slightly surplus demand in the coming year. Interestingly, this is a shift from their previous forecasts of a global supply deficit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对供应与需求不平衡的担忧正在压制原油价格，最新的行业报告进一步加重了投资者的悲观情绪。例如，OPEC 预计全球石油供应在未来一年将略微超过需求。有趣的是，这与他们之前对全球供应短缺的预测形成了对比。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global oil supply may exceed demand by a record amount of 4 million bpd. However, it upholds oil as a strategic commodity, indicating that its demand will likely peak by 2050. This outlook is pegged on a slower adoption of electric vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，国际能源署（IEA）估计全球石油供应可能超过需求，创下 400 万桶/日的历史新高。然而，它仍将石油视为战略商品，表明其需求可能在 2050 年达到峰值。这一展望基于电动车的采用速度较慢。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a surge in inventories for the week that ended on 7th November. Crude stockpiles increased by 1.3 million barrels even as the decline in gasoline inventories pointed to a resilient US consumer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，美国石油协会（API）的数据显示，截至 11 月 7 日的一周，库存激增。尽管汽油库存的下降表明美国消费者的韧性，原油库存仍增加了 130 万桶。</p>
</div><p>Notably, a weaker US dollar and optimism from the IEA report helped oil prices bounce off the three-week low hit earlier on Thursday. However, both Brent and WTI benchmarks are set for their third consecutive week of losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，美元走弱和 IEA 报告带来的乐观情绪帮助油价从周四早些时候触及的三周低点反弹。然而，布伦特和 WTI 基准油价都面临连续第三周的下跌。</p>
</div><h2>USO crude oil price technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>USO 原油价格技术分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/crude-oil-price-1-1024x579.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/crude-oil-price-1-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p>Crude oil price chart | Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原油价格图表 | 来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>USO oil price has been range-bound for about three weeks as worries over a looming supply-demand imbalance curb its upside potential. A look at its daily chart points to further selling pressure as the bears seek to break the current support zone of $70 and retest mid-October levels of $68.50. This is after several industry reports heightened oversupply concerns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>USO 原油价格在过去三周内一直处于区间波动中，因对即将到来的供应与需求不平衡的担忧抑制了其上涨潜力。从日线图来看，进一步的卖压正在形成，空头试图突破当前的 70 美元支撑区，并重新测试 10 月中旬的 68.50 美元水平。这是在几份行业报告加剧了过剩担忧之后。</p>
</div><p>At its current level, USO oil price is trading below the short-term 25-day EMA and the medium-term 50-day EMA. Since early October, the bearish death cross pattern has been in place; an indication that the weight on oil prices is far from over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在当前水平下，USO 原油价格低于短期 25 日指数移动平均线（EMA）和中期 50 日 EMA。自 10 月初以来，空头死亡交叉形态已经形成，表明油价的压力远未结束。</p>
</div><p>At its current level of $70.43, the bulls still have an opportunity to attract more buyers and defend the crucial support around $70. However, a decline past $69.45, which matches the point of convergence for the 25 and 50-day EMAs in mid-June, will give the sellers a chance to push the price lower to $68.05. On the flip side, a rebound past the 25-day EMA at $71.50 will likely activate the resistance at $72.50.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在当前 70.43 美元的水平上，多头仍有机会吸引更多买家并捍卫 70 美元附近的关键支撑。然而，如果价格跌破 69.45 美元，这与 6 月中旬 25 日和 50 日 EMA 的交汇点相符，将给卖方提供机会将价格压低至 68.05 美元。相反，若价格反弹突破 25 日 EMA 的 71.50 美元，可能会激活 72.50 美元的阻力位。</p>
</div><p>The post Crude oil price analysis: 2026 forecast Vs. 2025 numbers appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原油价格分析：2026 年预测与 2025 年数据的对比，首发于 Invezz</p>
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