<p>自推出以来，山寨币一直在努力塑造自己的身份。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，2025 年终于将这种分离展现得淋漓尽致。尽管山寨币季节指数呈下降趋势，但仍有少数名称成功与比特币 [BTC] 脱钩，暗示市场结构正在缓慢转变。</p>
<p>以太坊 [ETH] 是一个典型的例子。</p>
<p>当然，在第四季度，它的表现比 BTC 低了 1.17%，但 ETH 却在不断进行重要的升级。在这种情况下，真正的问题是：这种分歧在我们迈向 2026 年时是否会开始带来回报？</p>
<h2><strong>市场轮换突显以太坊的潜力</strong></h2>
<p>市场正在发生潜在的变化。</p>
<p>在连续两个季度的红色蜡烛之后，比特币的市场主导地位（BTC.D）已跌破 60% 的阻力位，目前正在努力重新夺回该水平。</p>
<p>与此同时，山寨币季节指数（ASI）在撰写时已从 43 降至 37。</p>
<p>通常，ASI 的下降会伴随着 BTC 的上涨，因为投资者会涌向主导资产。然而这一次，两者都在一起下跌，表明市场的表现超出了其通常的模式。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTC.D_2025-12-06_13-22-51.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTC.D_2025-12-06_13-22-51.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView (BTC.D)</p>
<p>根据 AMBCrypto 的说法，这一变化突显了 ETH 的内在实力。</p>
<p>尽管市场的大部分资金仍在观望，但 ETH.D 在 12 月开局时上涨了 2%。更重要的是，ETH/BTC 比率上升了 2.08%，进一步强化了以太坊正在塑造相对强势的论点。</p>
<p>这有什么重要性？这种分歧可能表明投资者行为向强大的第一层区块链发生了更广泛的转变。如果链上指标一致，这种轮换是否会推动以太坊在 2026 年相对于比特币的上涨？</p>
<h2><strong>尽管情绪滞后，以太坊的供应紧密锁定</strong></h2>
<p>ETH 质押正在发出强烈的长期承诺信号。</p>
<p>链上指标证实了这一点：ETH 的总质押价值（TVS）在 3600 万以上保持稳定，即使在更广泛的市场恐慌中。简单来说，投资者继续锁定更多 ETH 以获取质押奖励和收益。</p>
<p>此外，以太坊的交易所储备持续减少。自第四季度开始，近 120 万 ETH 已从交易所转出，表明持有者的强烈长期承诺。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-1.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Glassnode</p>
<p>值得注意的是，与比特币相比，这种韧性变得更加明显。如上图所示，只有 8.84% 的以太坊仍在交易所上，约为 BTC 的 14.8% 的一半。</p>
<p>这显然表明 ETH 持有者中存在长期的 “持有和质押” 心态。简单来说，以太坊锁定的供应比例远高于比特币，从而在市场上创造了更紧密的流动性。</p>
<p>在这种背景下，以太坊在图表上的韧性并不是偶然。即使在更广泛的市场恐慌中，这种信念来自于基本面。因此，问题出现了：这种分歧是否最终会开始带来回报？</p>
<h2><strong>链上指标信号 ETH 与 BTC 的分歧</strong></h2>
<p>对于以太坊来说，2025 年将围绕两个主要升级展开。</p>
<p>第一个是 Pectra 升级，随后是 Fusaka 升级。链上指标显示了影响：每周交易量从 155 万攀升至 166 万，反映出网络采用的增强。</p>
<p>在 ETH 的积累趋势之上，这些升级显然正在推动重要的链上活动。简而言之，以太坊正在巩固其作为主导第一层区块链的地位，既有使用量也有长期锁定的供应。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ETHUSD_2025-12-06_14-50-26.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ETHUSD_2025-12-06_14-50-26.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView (ETH/USDT)</p>
<p>在这种情况下，2026 年的看涨前景似乎更为可能。</p>
<p>在技术层面，以太坊开始与比特币产生分歧，得到了链上基本面如网络参与度上升和积累趋势收紧的支持。</p>
<p>在这种背景下，以太坊似乎处于有利位置，可以从网络增长和资本轮换中受益，可能为明年相对于比特币的持续超越奠定基础。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最后的思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li><em>以太坊强劲的链上活动、质押增长和缩减的交易所储备信号着网络实力的增强和长期持有者的信念。</em></li>
<li><em>网络升级、积累趋势和紧密的流动性可能使 ETH 在市场轮换偏向强大的第一层区块链时有可能超越 BTC。</em></li>
</ul>
<hr/>

ETHE

<p>本文探讨了以太坊（ETH）在 2026 年前超越比特币（BTC）的潜力，引用了关键市场变化和以太坊的强大基本面。尽管在第四季度以 1.17% 的幅度落后于 BTC，但以太坊的升级和市场轮动暗示了投资者行为的变化。以太坊的质押增长、交易所储备减少以及网络升级表明长期持有者的信心和网络实力，这可能使 ETH 在市场轮动偏向强大的第一层区块链时具备超越的潜力</p>

<p>Since launch, altcoins have been trying to carve out their own identity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自推出以来，山寨币一直在努力塑造自己的身份。</p>
</div><p>Notably, 2025 is finally putting that separation on full display. Even with the Altcoin Season Index trending down, a handful of names are still managing to decouple from Bitcoin [BTC], hinting at a slow shift in market structure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，2025 年终于将这种分离展现得淋漓尽致。尽管山寨币季节指数呈下降趋势，但仍有少数名称成功与比特币 [BTC] 脱钩，暗示市场结构正在缓慢转变。</p>
</div><p>Ethereum [ETH] is a prime example.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以太坊 [ETH] 是一个典型的例子。</p>
</div><p>Sure, it underperformed BTC by 1.17% in Q4, but ETH has been stacking meaningful upgrades back-to-back. Against this setup, the real question is: Will this divergence finally start paying off as we head into 2026?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，在第四季度，它的表现比 BTC 低了 1.17%，但 ETH 却在不断进行重要的升级。在这种情况下，真正的问题是：这种分歧在我们迈向 2026 年时是否会开始带来回报？</p>
</div><h2><strong>Market rotation highlights Ethereum’s potential</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>市场轮换突显以太坊的潜力</strong></h2>
</div><p>There’s an underlying shift happening in the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场正在发生潜在的变化。</p>
</div><p>After two consecutive monthly red candles, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has fallen below the 60% resistance and is currently struggling to reclaim that level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在连续两个季度的红色蜡烛之后，比特币的市场主导地位（BTC.D）已跌破 60% 的阻力位，目前正在努力重新夺回该水平。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the Altcoin Season Index (ASI) has dropped from 43 to 37 as of writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，山寨币季节指数（ASI）在撰写时已从 43 降至 37。</p>
</div><p>Normally, a falling ASI would coincide with BTC surging as investors flock to the dominant asset. This time, however, both are trending down together,suggesting the market is acting outside its usual playbook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常，ASI 的下降会伴随着 BTC 的上涨，因为投资者会涌向主导资产。然而这一次，两者都在一起下跌，表明市场的表现超出了其通常的模式。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTC.D_2025-12-06_13-22-51.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTC.D_2025-12-06_13-22-51.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView (BTC.D)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView (BTC.D)</p>
</div><p>According to AMBCrypto, this shift highlights ETH’s underlying strength.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 AMBCrypto 的说法，这一变化突显了 ETH 的内在实力。</p>
</div><p>Even with much of the market’s capital remaining on the sidelines, ETH.D kicked off December with a 2% jump. What’s more, the ETH/BTC ratio rose 2.08%, reinforcing the thesis that Ethereum is carving out relative strength.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管市场的大部分资金仍在观望，但 ETH.D 在 12 月开局时上涨了 2%。更重要的是，ETH/BTC 比率上升了 2.08%，进一步强化了以太坊正在塑造相对强势的论点。</p>
</div><p>Why does this matter? This divergence could signal a broader shift in investor behavior toward strong Layer-1s. If on-chain metrics align, could this rotation push Ethereum higher versus Bitcoin in 2026?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这有什么重要性？这种分歧可能表明投资者行为向强大的第一层区块链发生了更广泛的转变。如果链上指标一致，这种轮换是否会推动以太坊在 2026 年相对于比特币的上涨？</p>
</div><h2><strong>While sentiment lags, Ethereum’s supply is tightly locked</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>尽管情绪滞后，以太坊的供应紧密锁定</strong></h2>
</div><p>ETH staking is signaling a strong long-term commitment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ETH 质押正在发出强烈的长期承诺信号。</p>
</div><p>On-chain metrics confirm this: ETH’s Total Value Staked (TVS) is holding steady well above 36 million, even amid broader market FUD. Put simply, investors are continuing to lock up more ETH for staking rewards and yield.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>链上指标证实了这一点：ETH 的总质押价值（TVS）在 3600 万以上保持稳定，即使在更广泛的市场恐慌中。简单来说，投资者继续锁定更多 ETH 以获取质押奖励和收益。</p>
</div><p>Adding to this, Ethereum’s Exchange Reserves keep shrinking. Since the start of Q4, nearly 1.2 million ETH have moved off exchanges, signaling a strong, long-term commitment from HOLDers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，以太坊的交易所储备持续减少。自第四季度开始，近 120 万 ETH 已从交易所转出，表明持有者的强烈长期承诺。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>Notably, the resilience becomes even more obvious when compared to Bitcoin. As the chart above shows, only 8.84% of Ethereum remains on exchanges, roughly half of BTC’s 14.8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，与比特币相比，这种韧性变得更加明显。如上图所示，只有 8.84% 的以太坊仍在交易所上，约为 BTC 的 14.8% 的一半。</p>
</div><p>This clearly points to a long-term “HODL and stake” mentality among ETH holders. Simply put, Ethereum is locking up a much higher share of its supply compared to Bitcoin, creating tighter liquidity in the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这显然表明 ETH 持有者中存在长期的 “持有和质押” 心态。简单来说，以太坊锁定的供应比例远高于比特币，从而在市场上创造了更紧密的流动性。</p>
</div><p>In this context, Ethereum’s resilience on the charts isn’t a fluke. Even amid broader market FUD, this conviction is coming from the fundamentals. Hence, the question arises: Could this divergence finally start paying off?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，以太坊在图表上的韧性并不是偶然。即使在更广泛的市场恐慌中，这种信念来自于基本面。因此，问题出现了：这种分歧是否最终会开始带来回报？</p>
</div><h2><strong>On-chain metrics signal ETH divergence from BTC</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>链上指标信号 ETH 与 BTC 的分歧</strong></h2>
</div><p>For Ethereum, 2025 is shaping up to be around two major rollouts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于以太坊来说，2025 年将围绕两个主要升级展开。</p>
</div><p>The first was the Pectra upgrade, followed by the Fusaka upgrade. On-chain metrics show the impact: Weekly transactions have climbed from 1.55 million to 1.66 million MoM, reflecting stronger network adoption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一个是 Pectra 升级，随后是 Fusaka 升级。链上指标显示了影响：每周交易量从 155 万攀升至 166 万，反映出网络采用的增强。</p>
</div><p>Layered on top of ETH’s accumulation trends, it’s clear these upgrades are driving meaningful on-chain activity. In short, Ethereum is reinforcing its position as a dominant L1, with both usage and long-term locked supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 ETH 的积累趋势之上，这些升级显然正在推动重要的链上活动。简而言之，以太坊正在巩固其作为主导第一层区块链的地位，既有使用量也有长期锁定的供应。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ETHUSD_2025-12-06_14-50-26.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ETHUSD_2025-12-06_14-50-26.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView (ETH/USDT)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView (ETH/USDT)</p>
</div><p>Against this setup, a bullish 2026 is looking more likely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，2026 年的看涨前景似乎更为可能。</p>
</div><p>On the technical side, Ethereum is starting to diverge from Bitcoin, backed by on-chain fundamentals like rising network engagement and accumulation trends that are tightening liquid ETH supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在技术层面，以太坊开始与比特币产生分歧，得到了链上基本面如网络参与度上升和积累趋势收紧的支持。</p>
</div><p>In this context, Ethereum seems well-positioned to benefit from both network growth and capital rotation, potentially setting the stage for continued outperformance versus Bitcoin next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，以太坊似乎处于有利位置，可以从网络增长和资本轮换中受益，可能为明年相对于比特币的持续超越奠定基础。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最后的思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Ethereum’s strong on-chain activity, staking growth, and shrinking Exchange Reserves signal increasing network strength and long-term holder conviction.</em></li>
<li><em>Network upgrades, accumulation trends, and tight liquidity could position ETH to potentially outperform BTC as market rotation favors strong Layer-1s.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>以太坊强劲的链上活动、质押增长和缩减的交易所储备信号着网络实力的增强和长期持有者的信念。</em></li>
<li><em>网络升级、积累趋势和紧密的流动性可能使 ETH 在市场轮换偏向强大的第一层区块链时有可能超越 BTC。</em></li>
</ul>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>

以太坊在 2026 年能否超越比特币的表现？关键分歧显示