<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/1642254605211-4836e56b-f7dc-4f9e-bdf2-da65364161d6.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="500" height="375" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/1642254605211-4836e56b-f7dc-4f9e-bdf2-da65364161d6.jpg"/></p>
<p>在一项引起金融市场和政策制定者广泛关注的严峻警告中，英格兰银行（BoE）政策制定者艾伦·泰勒（Alan Taylor）强调了英国经济实现 “软着陆” 的风险日益增加——这一情景是指在不引发严重衰退的情况下抑制通胀。</p>
<p>泰勒在周三发言时强调，最近的经济数据表明活动正在放缓，这引发了对控制通胀与维持增长之间微妙平衡的担忧。</p>
<p>这一情况出现在英国面临后疫情复苏、地缘政治不确定性和国内财政挑战的关键时刻。</p>
<h2>寻求软着陆</h2>
<p>软着陆的概念自 COVID-19 疫情和乌克兰冲突后通胀飙升以来，已成为全球中央银行，包括英格兰银行的核心目标。</p>
<p>软着陆意味着提高利率以抑制通胀，而不将经济推入深度衰退。</p>
<p>英国面临持续的通胀压力，消费者价格在 2022 年 10 月达到 41 年来的最高点 11.1%，主要受到能源成本飙升和供应链中断的推动。</p>
<p>自那时以来，英格兰银行实施了一系列加息，将基准利率提高至 2023 年底的 5.25%，并在 2024 年开始降息，因通胀开始缓解。</p>
<p>尽管采取了这些措施，英国经济仍显示出紧张迹象。</p>
<p>增长乏力，最近几个季度 GDP 几乎没有扩张。尽管劳动力市场表现出韧性，但随着失业率上升和工资增长放缓，开始显露出裂痕。</p>
<p>在这种背景下，泰勒的警告突显了当前经济轨迹的脆弱性。</p>
<h2>泰勒的担忧：经济放缓和降息预期</h2>
<p>英格兰银行货币政策委员会（MPC）成员艾伦·泰勒在 2025 年 7 月 2 日表示，软着陆的前景现在面临威胁，他一直支持降息。</p>
<p>据报道，泰勒指出，经济活动的放缓超出预期，这可能会破坏避免硬着陆的希望——硬着陆是指经济出现急剧衰退的情景。</p>
<p>他指出，最近的数据表明，经济可能需要比之前预想的更激进的货币宽松。</p>
<p>泰勒据说认为，经济指标现在支持在 2025 年进行五次降息，而之前的预期为四次。</p>
<p>这一变化反映出日益增加的下行风险，包括消费者信心减弱和全球贸易挑战可能带来的干扰。</p>
<p>他还估计，英国的中性实际利率——即货币政策既不刺激也不限制增长的利率——在 0.75% 到 1% 之间，这意味着一旦通胀稳定，名义利率约为 2.75% 到 3%。</p>
<p>然而，泰勒警告不要过度降息，认为在这个阶段既不必要也不理想。</p>
<h2>对货币政策和市场的影响</h2>
<p>泰勒的评论重新点燃了关于英国货币政策方向的辩论。</p>
<p>英格兰银行一直在走钢丝，平衡控制持续通胀的需要——目前通胀率在 2.2% 左右，仍高于 2% 的目标——与抑制增长的风险。</p>
<p>虽然一些 MPC 成员主张维持较高的利率以确保通胀得到完全控制，但像泰勒这样的成员则优先考虑在经济疲软迹象下支持经济。</p>
<p>金融市场对泰勒的言论迅速做出了反应，英镑兑美元小幅下跌，从 2025 年 7 月 2 日的 1.3751 高点跌至 1.3690。</p>
<p>这反映了投资者对未来降息速度和规模的不确定性。债券收益率也有所调整，市场预计未来一年货币宽松的可能性增加。</p>
<p>分析师表示，如果英格兰银行在 2025 年实施五次降息，这可能会为消费者支出和商业投资提供急需的支持，但如果时机不当，可能会重新点燃通胀压力。</p>
<p><em><strong>免责声明：</strong> 本文部分内容由 AI 工具生成，并由 Invezz 编辑团队审核以确保准确性和符合我们的标准。</em></p>
<p>该文章的标题为《英格兰银行政策制定者警告英国经济软着陆的风险》，首次发布于 Invezz。</p>

<p>英国央行政策制定者艾伦·泰勒警告称，英国经济软着陆面临风险，指出经济放缓以及 2025 年需要降息。泰勒强调了控制通胀与维持增长之间的微妙平衡，最近的数据表明可能需要更激进的货币宽松。他的评论引发了关于英国货币政策方向的辩论，影响了金融市场，英镑下跌，债券收益率调整</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/1642254605211-4836e56b-f7dc-4f9e-bdf2-da65364161d6.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/1642254605211-4836e56b-f7dc-4f9e-bdf2-da65364161d6.jpg"/></p>
<p>In a stark warning that has captured the attention of financial markets and policymakers alike, Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Alan Taylor has highlighted growing risks to the UK economy achieving a ‘soft landing’—a scenario where inflation is tamed without triggering a severe recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一项引起金融市场和政策制定者广泛关注的严峻警告中，英格兰银行（BoE）政策制定者艾伦·泰勒（Alan Taylor）强调了英国经济实现 “软着陆” 的风险日益增加——这一情景是指在不引发严重衰退的情况下抑制通胀。</p>
</div><p>Speaking on Wednesday, Taylor emphasized that recent economic data points to a slowdown in activity, raising concerns about the delicate balance between controlling inflation and sustaining growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>泰勒在周三发言时强调，最近的经济数据表明活动正在放缓，这引发了对控制通胀与维持增长之间微妙平衡的担忧。</p>
</div><p>This comes at a critical juncture for the UK, as it navigates post-pandemic recovery, geopolitical uncertainties, and domestic fiscal challenges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一情况出现在英国面临后疫情复苏、地缘政治不确定性和国内财政挑战的关键时刻。</p>
</div><h2>The quest for a soft landing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>寻求软着陆</h2>
</div><p>The concept of a soft landing has been a central goal for central banks worldwide, including the Bank of England, since inflation surged in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>软着陆的概念自 COVID-19 疫情和乌克兰冲突后通胀飙升以来，已成为全球中央银行，包括英格兰银行的核心目标。</p>
</div><p>A soft landing entails raising interest rates to curb inflation without pushing the economy into a deep downturn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>软着陆意味着提高利率以抑制通胀，而不将经济推入深度衰退。</p>
</div><p>The UK has faced persistent inflationary pressures, with consumer prices peaking at a 41-year high of 11.1% in October 2022, driven by soaring energy costs and supply chain disruptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英国面临持续的通胀压力，消费者价格在 2022 年 10 月达到 41 年来的最高点 11.1%，主要受到能源成本飙升和供应链中断的推动。</p>
</div><p>Since then, the BoE has implemented a series of rate hikes, bringing the base rate to 5.25% as of late 2023, before initiating cuts in 2024 as inflation began to ease.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自那时以来，英格兰银行实施了一系列加息，将基准利率提高至 2023 年底的 5.25%，并在 2024 年开始降息，因通胀开始缓解。</p>
</div><p>Despite these efforts, the UK economy has shown signs of strain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管采取了这些措施，英国经济仍显示出紧张迹象。</p>
</div><p>Growth has been sluggish, with GDP barely expanding in recent quarters. The labor market, while resilient, is beginning to show cracks with rising unemployment and slowing wage growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>增长乏力，最近几个季度 GDP 几乎没有扩张。尽管劳动力市场表现出韧性，但随着失业率上升和工资增长放缓，开始显露出裂痕。</p>
</div><p>Against this backdrop, Taylor’s warning underscores the fragility of the current economic trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，泰勒的警告突显了当前经济轨迹的脆弱性。</p>
</div><h2>Taylor’s concerns: Economic slowdown and rate cut projections</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>泰勒的担忧：经济放缓和降息预期</h2>
</div><p>Alan Taylor, a member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) who has consistently voted for interest rate cuts, expressed on July 2, 2025, that the prospect of a soft landing is now under threat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英格兰银行货币政策委员会（MPC）成员艾伦·泰勒在 2025 年 7 月 2 日表示，软着陆的前景现在面临威胁，他一直支持降息。</p>
</div><p>According to reports, Taylor noted that economic activity is decelerating more than anticipated, which could derail hopes of avoiding a hard landing—a scenario involving a sharp recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>据报道，泰勒指出，经济活动的放缓超出预期，这可能会破坏避免硬着陆的希望——硬着陆是指经济出现急剧衰退的情景。</p>
</div><p>He pointed to recent data suggesting that the economy might require more aggressive monetary easing than previously thought.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他指出，最近的数据表明，经济可能需要比之前预想的更激进的货币宽松。</p>
</div><p>Taylor reportedly argued that economic indicators now support five interest rate cuts in 2025, up from a previous expectation of four.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>泰勒据说认为，经济指标现在支持在 2025 年进行五次降息，而之前的预期为四次。</p>
</div><p>This shift reflects growing downside risks, including weakening consumer confidence and potential disruptions from global trade challenges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一变化反映出日益增加的下行风险，包括消费者信心减弱和全球贸易挑战可能带来的干扰。</p>
</div><p>He also estimated the UK’s neutral real interest rate— the rate at which monetary policy neither stimulates nor restricts growth—to be between 0.75% and 1%, implying a nominal rate of around 2.75% to 3% once inflation stabilizes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他还估计，英国的中性实际利率——即货币政策既不刺激也不限制增长的利率——在 0.75% 到 1% 之间，这意味着一旦通胀稳定，名义利率约为 2.75% 到 3%。</p>
</div><p>However, Taylor cautioned against overly large rate cuts, suggesting they are neither necessary nor desirable at this stage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，泰勒警告不要过度降息，认为在这个阶段既不必要也不理想。</p>
</div><h2>Implications for monetary policy and markets</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对货币政策和市场的影响</h2>
</div><p>Taylor’s comments have reignited debates over the direction of UK monetary policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>泰勒的评论重新点燃了关于英国货币政策方向的辩论。</p>
</div><p>The BoE has been walking a tightrope, balancing the need to control lingering inflation—currently hovering above the 2% target at around 2.2%—with the risk of stifling growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英格兰银行一直在走钢丝，平衡控制持续通胀的需要——目前通胀率在 2.2% 左右，仍高于 2% 的目标——与抑制增长的风险。</p>
</div><p>While some MPC members advocate for maintaining higher rates to ensure inflation is fully under control, others, like Taylor, prioritize supporting the economy amid signs of weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然一些 MPC 成员主张维持较高的利率以确保通胀得到完全控制，但像泰勒这样的成员则优先考虑在经济疲软迹象下支持经济。</p>
</div><p>Financial markets reacted swiftly to Taylor’s remarks, with the pound sterling dipping slightly against the US dollar, falling from a high of 1.3751 to 1.3690 on July 2, 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融市场对泰勒的言论迅速做出了反应，英镑兑美元小幅下跌，从 2025 年 7 月 2 日的 1.3751 高点跌至 1.3690。</p>
</div><p>This reflects investor uncertainty over the pace and scale of future rate cuts. Bond yields also adjusted, as markets priced in a higher likelihood of monetary easing in the coming year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这反映了投资者对未来降息速度和规模的不确定性。债券收益率也有所调整，市场预计未来一年货币宽松的可能性增加。</p>
</div><p>Analysts suggest that if the BoE does implement five rate cuts in 2025, it could provide a much-needed boost to consumer spending and business investment, though it risks reigniting inflationary pressures if timed improperly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师表示，如果英格兰银行在 2025 年实施五次降息，这可能会为消费者支出和商业投资提供急需的支持，但如果时机不当，可能会重新点燃通胀压力。</p>
</div><p><em><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> Portions of this article were generated with the assistance of AI tools and reviewed by the Invezz editorial team for accuracy and adherence to our standards.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em><strong>免责声明：</strong> 本文部分内容由 AI 工具生成，并由 Invezz 编辑团队审核以确保准确性和符合我们的标准。</em></p>
</div><p>The post Bank of England policymaker warns of risks to UK economic soft landing appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该文章的标题为《英格兰银行政策制定者警告英国经济软着陆的风险》，首次发布于 Invezz。</p>
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Bank of England policymaker warns of risks to UK economic soft landing

- 英国央行官员艾伦·泰勒警告，英国经济软着陆风险加剧。  
- 经济活动放缓，可能需要更多货币宽松以避免严重衰退。  
- 泰勒预计 2025 年将有五次降息，反映出经济下行风险增加。

英格兰银行决策者警告英国经济实现软着陆的风险