<p>北京时间 12 月 11 日清晨，美联储将宣布 12 月的利率决策，随后美联储主席鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。</p>
<p>截至上周五，CME FedWatch 工具显示本周降息 25 个基点的概率为 86.2%。在 11 月近 20% 的暴跌后，比特币希望通过政策信号扭转其下行趋势。</p>
<p>尽管在 11 月最后几天，美国现货比特币 ETF 流入了 2.2 亿美元，但这不足以抵消整个 11 月净流出 43 亿美元的情况。仅黑石的 IBIT 基金在 10 月底至 11 月中旬就损失了 16 亿美元。</p>
<p>此时，宏观经济环境脆弱，流动性不足，头寸紧张。市场对美联储政策的任何微小调整都极为敏感。</p>
<p>市场的核心关注点集中在三个方面：</p>
<p>首先，12 月的降息是否会实现？美联储在 9 月和 10 月已经降息两次，但鲍威尔表示 12 月的行动 “远未确定”，加剧了 FOMC 内部的分歧，可能增加反对声音。其次，如何平衡通胀与增长？通胀仍高于 2% 的目标，ISM 制造业指数连续多日下滑，因政府停摆导致关键经济数据延迟，造成政策决策的信息真空。第三，宽松政策是否会持续到 2026 年？美联储在 12 月 1 日停止缩减资产负债表，投资者急于了解 12 月的降息是否标志着周期的结束。对于加密市场，政策信号通过 “实际收益 - ETF 资金流动” 传递给比特币。NYDIG 的研究确认，实际收益是核心影响因素；收益下降会导致价格上涨，反之亦然。10 月的案例已经证明了这一点：在鲍威尔拒绝承诺进一步降息后，IBIT 在三周内流出 16 亿美元，比特币随后下跌。鲍威尔的言论将导致三种可能的路径：如果他释放鸽派信号（确认 12 月降息，淡化通胀风险，并暗示 2026 年将放松政策），两年期国债收益率将下降，ETF 赎回可能转为净流入，比特币预计将继续反弹；如果他采取中立立场（承认降息的可能性但强调数据依赖），实际收益将波动，ETF 资金表现混合，比特币将回落至当前水平；如果他释放鹰派信号（淡化降息的必要性并警告通胀风险），10 月的情景可能重演，收益率上升引发一波 ETF 赎回，比特币可能测试近期低点。目前，美联储内部的分歧以及对鲍威尔 2026 年继任者的猜测通过政策不确定性抑制了风险偏好。对于交易者而言，他演讲的核心价值在于回答比特币 11 月的暴跌是短期的投降还是宏观经济逻辑变化的开始。如果鲍威尔接受市场对降息的预期，流动性预期的宽松将支持风险资产在年末反弹；如果他的立场逆转，整体加密市场可能需要寻找新的宏观经济支持。</p>

<p>美联储即将做出的利率决策可能会对比特币的走势产生重大影响。目前市场对降息的预期概率为 86.2%，比特币希望通过政策信号来扭转近期的下跌趋势。市场对美联储政策变化非常敏感，关注降息的确定性、通胀与经济增长的平衡以及未来的宽松政策。鲍威尔的立场将影响比特币的走势，鸽派信号可能会推动比特币上涨，而鹰派信号则可能导致进一步下跌。交易者在等待比特币 11 月的暴跌是暂时现象还是更广泛宏观经济变化的指示</p>

<p>At dawn on December 11th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its December interest rate decision, followed by a press conference by Fed Chairman Powell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北京时间 12 月 11 日清晨，美联储将宣布 12 月的利率决策，随后美联储主席鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。</p>
</div><p>As of last Friday, the CME FedWatch tool showed an 86.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut this week. After a nearly 20% plunge in November, Bitcoin is hoping for a policy signal to reverse its downward trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至上周五，CME FedWatch 工具显示本周降息 25 个基点的概率为 86.2%。在 11 月近 20% 的暴跌后，比特币希望通过政策信号扭转其下行趋势。</p>
</div><p>Although there was a slight inflow of $220 million into US spot Bitcoin ETFs in the last few days of November, it was insufficient to offset the net outflow of $4.3 billion for the entire month. BlackRock's IBIT fund alone lost $1.6 billion from late October to mid-November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管在 11 月最后几天，美国现货比特币 ETF 流入了 2.2 亿美元，但这不足以抵消整个 11 月净流出 43 亿美元的情况。仅黑石的 IBIT 基金在 10 月底至 11 月中旬就损失了 16 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>At this time, the macroeconomic environment is fragile, liquidity is insufficient, and positions are tight. The market is extremely sensitive to any slight adjustment in Fed policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此时，宏观经济环境脆弱，流动性不足，头寸紧张。市场对美联储政策的任何微小调整都极为敏感。</p>
</div><p>The market's core concerns are focused on three points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场的核心关注点集中在三个方面：</p>
</div><p>First, will the December rate cut materialize? The Fed has already cut rates twice in September and October, but Powell has stated that the December action is &#34;far from certain,&#34; exacerbating internal divisions within the FOMC and potentially increasing opposition. Secondly, how to balance inflation and growth? Inflation remains above the 2% target, the ISM manufacturing index has fallen for several consecutive days, and key economic data is delayed due to the government shutdown, creating an information vacuum for policy decisions. Thirdly, will the easing policy continue into 2026? The Federal Reserve stopped shrinking its balance sheet on December 1st, and investors are eager to know if a rate cut in December would mark the end of the cycle. For the crypto market, policy signals are transmitted to Bitcoin through the &#34;real yield - ETF fund flows.&#34; NYDIG research confirms that real yields are the core influencing factor; a decline in yields leads to price increases, and vice versa. The October case has already demonstrated this: after Powell refused to commit to further rate cuts, IBIT saw an outflow of $1.6 billion over three weeks, and Bitcoin subsequently fell. Powell's remarks will lead to three possible paths: If he releases a dovish signal (confirming a December rate cut, downplaying inflation risks, and hinting at easing in 2026), the two-year Treasury yield will decline, ETF redemptions may turn into net inflows, and Bitcoin is expected to continue its rebound; If he takes a neutral stance (acknowledging the possibility of a rate cut but emphasizing data dependence), real yields will fluctuate, ETF funds will see mixed performance, and Bitcoin will revert to its current level; If he releases a hawkish signal (downplaying the necessity of a rate cut and warning of inflation risks), the scenario of October may repeat itself, with rising yields triggering a wave of ETF redemptions, and Bitcoin may test recent lows. Currently, internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and speculation about Powell's successor in 2026 have suppressed risk appetite through policy uncertainty. For traders, the core value of his speech lies in answering whether Bitcoin's November plunge was a short-term capitulation or the beginning of a change in macroeconomic logic. If Powell accepts market expectations of interest rate cuts, the anticipated easing of liquidity will support a year-end rebound in risk assets; if his stance reverses, the overall crypto market may need to find new macroeconomic support.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，12 月的降息是否会实现？美联储在 9 月和 10 月已经降息两次，但鲍威尔表示 12 月的行动 “远未确定”，加剧了 FOMC 内部的分歧，可能增加反对声音。其次，如何平衡通胀与增长？通胀仍高于 2% 的目标，ISM 制造业指数连续多日下滑，因政府停摆导致关键经济数据延迟，造成政策决策的信息真空。第三，宽松政策是否会持续到 2026 年？美联储在 12 月 1 日停止缩减资产负债表，投资者急于了解 12 月的降息是否标志着周期的结束。对于加密市场，政策信号通过 “实际收益 - ETF 资金流动” 传递给比特币。NYDIG 的研究确认，实际收益是核心影响因素；收益下降会导致价格上涨，反之亦然。10 月的案例已经证明了这一点：在鲍威尔拒绝承诺进一步降息后，IBIT 在三周内流出 16 亿美元，比特币随后下跌。鲍威尔的言论将导致三种可能的路径：如果他释放鸽派信号（确认 12 月降息，淡化通胀风险，并暗示 2026 年将放松政策），两年期国债收益率将下降，ETF 赎回可能转为净流入，比特币预计将继续反弹；如果他采取中立立场（承认降息的可能性但强调数据依赖），实际收益将波动，ETF 资金表现混合，比特币将回落至当前水平；如果他释放鹰派信号（淡化降息的必要性并警告通胀风险），10 月的情景可能重演，收益率上升引发一波 ETF 赎回，比特币可能测试近期低点。目前，美联储内部的分歧以及对鲍威尔 2026 年继任者的猜测通过政策不确定性抑制了风险偏好。对于交易者而言，他演讲的核心价值在于回答比特币 11 月的暴跌是短期的投降还是宏观经济逻辑变化的开始。如果鲍威尔接受市场对降息的预期，流动性预期的宽松将支持风险资产在年末反弹；如果他的立场逆转，整体加密市场可能需要寻找新的宏观经济支持。</p>
</div>

随着本周利率会议的临近，比特币会作何反应？