<p>有时候，资产的表现更多地体现在其链上指标上，而不是宏观趋势上。确实，第四季度的宏观波动导致了各类资产的连续崩盘，但真正的痛苦比看起来更深。</p>
<p>以比特币（BTC）的挖矿社区为例。从技术上讲，BTC 从其 126,000 美元的峰值下跌近 30% 对矿工造成了严重打击，尤其是在挖矿难度不断攀升至历史新高的情况下。</p>
<p>为了提供一些背景，11 月中旬，BTC 挖矿难度达到了 155 万亿的历史新高，这意味着网络的算力比以往任何时候都更具竞争力。结果是什么？比特币的挖矿成本达到了创纪录的水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-3.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CoinShares</p>
<p>值得注意的是，挖掘 1 个 BTC 的平均成本现在约为 74,600 美元。</p>
<p>从技术上讲，这仅比比特币的 90,000 美元现货价格低 20%。但这不仅仅是数学问题。在高波动性、低风险偏好、薄弱的买盘支持和链上指标承压的情况下，很明显 BTC 还没有接近底部。</p>
<p>对于矿工来说，继续参与游戏变得越来越困难。</p>
<p>利润空间紧张，运营成本上升，任何失误都可能代价高昂。然而，从乐观的角度来看，矿工如何应对当前的恐慌情绪可能为比特币的下一个方向性走势提供一个可靠的信号。</p>
<h2><strong>比特币挖矿压力作为关键市场信号</strong></h2>
<p>为了应对波动性，关键参与者之间的 “信念” 至关重要。</p>
<p>这就是为什么矿工成本是如此关键的指标。考虑到比特币当前的价格波动，矿工提前退出以保护利润或在更深的修正之前实现盈亏平衡是合乎逻辑的。</p>
<p>也就是说，挖矿指标尚未转向看跌。例如，比特币矿工头寸指数（MPI）为-0.9，低于 11 月底的 2.17 的峰值，表明矿工尚未放弃。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-Miners-Position-Index-MPI.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-Miners-Position-Index-MPI.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>为了提供一些背景，MPI 跟踪比特币矿工的流出情况。</p>
<p>从技术上讲，高 MPI 意味着更多的抛售，而负值则指向持有心态，增强了对比特币的信念。因此，当前的-0.9 读数表明矿工更倾向于持有而不是抛售。</p>
<p>这对市场来说是一个可靠的信号：尽管成本上升、挖矿难度加大以及 BTC 的波动性，比特币矿工仍然在坚持。</p>
<p>虽然底部可能还没有到来，但矿工的行为显示出潜在的韧性。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最后的思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li><em>即使挖掘 1 个 BTC 的平均成本达到约 74,600 美元，矿工仍然倾向于持有而不是出售。</em></li>
<li><em>这种信念已成为比特币下一个走势的关键市场信号。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>比特币矿工面临创纪录的高成本，挖掘 1 个比特币的平均成本为 74,600 美元。尽管比特币的波动性和高运营成本，矿工们并没有选择放弃，这从比特币矿工持仓指数（MPI）为-0.9 可以看出。这表明矿工们持有比特币的心态，显示出韧性和对比特币未来市场方向的潜在看涨情绪</p>

<p>Sometimes an asset’s performance shows more in its on-chain metrics than in macro trends. Sure, Q4 macro volatility has triggered back-to-back crashes across the board, but the real pain is deeper than it looks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有时候，资产的表现更多地体现在其链上指标上，而不是宏观趋势上。确实，第四季度的宏观波动导致了各类资产的连续崩盘，但真正的痛苦比看起来更深。</p>
</div><p>Take Bitcoin’s [BTC] mining community, for example. Technically, BTC’s nearly 30% drop from its $126k peak has hit miners hard, especially as mining difficulty keeps grinding to new all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以比特币（BTC）的挖矿社区为例。从技术上讲，BTC 从其 126,000 美元的峰值下跌近 30% 对矿工造成了严重打击，尤其是在挖矿难度不断攀升至历史新高的情况下。</p>
</div><p>For context, in mid-November, BTC mining difficulty reached an all-time high of 155 trillion, meaning the network’s hashpower is more competitive than ever. The outcome? Bitcoin mining costs are at record levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了提供一些背景，11 月中旬，BTC 挖矿难度达到了 155 万亿的历史新高，这意味着网络的算力比以往任何时候都更具竞争力。结果是什么？比特币的挖矿成本达到了创纪录的水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-3.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CoinShares</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CoinShares</p>
</div><p>Notably, the average cost to mine 1 BTC is now sitting around $74,600.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，挖掘 1 个 BTC 的平均成本现在约为 74,600 美元。</p>
</div><p>Technically, that’s just 20% below Bitcoin’s $90k spot. But it’s not just about the math. With volatility high, risk appetite low, bid support weak, and on-chain metrics under pressure, it’s clear BTC isn’t near a bottom yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从技术上讲，这仅比比特币的 90,000 美元现货价格低 20%。但这不仅仅是数学问题。在高波动性、低风险偏好、薄弱的买盘支持和链上指标承压的情况下，很明显 BTC 还没有接近底部。</p>
</div><p>For miners, staying in the game is getting tougher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于矿工来说，继续参与游戏变得越来越困难。</p>
</div><p>Margins are tight, operational costs are up, and any misstep could be costly. On the bullish side, however, how miners navigate the current FUD could provide a solid signal for Bitcoin’s next directional move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利润空间紧张，运营成本上升，任何失误都可能代价高昂。然而，从乐观的角度来看，矿工如何应对当前的恐慌情绪可能为比特币的下一个方向性走势提供一个可靠的信号。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Bitcoin mining pressure as a key market signal</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>比特币挖矿压力作为关键市场信号</strong></h2>
</div><p>To navigate volatility, “conviction” among key players is critical.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了应对波动性，关键参与者之间的 “信念” 至关重要。</p>
</div><p>That’s why miner costs are such a key metric. With Bitcoin’s current price swings, it would be logical for miners to exit early to protect margins or breakeven before deeper corrections tighten the squeeze.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么矿工成本是如此关键的指标。考虑到比特币当前的价格波动，矿工提前退出以保护利润或在更深的修正之前实现盈亏平衡是合乎逻辑的。</p>
</div><p>That said, mining metrics haven’t flipped bearish yet. For instance, the Bitcoin Miner Position Index (MPI) is at -0.9, down from its late-November peak of 2.17, signaling that miners aren’t capitulating just yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，挖矿指标尚未转向看跌。例如，比特币矿工头寸指数（MPI）为-0.9，低于 11 月底的 2.17 的峰值，表明矿工尚未放弃。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-Miners-Position-Index-MPI.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-Miners-Position-Index-MPI.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>For context, the MPI tracks Bitcoin miner outflows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了提供一些背景，MPI 跟踪比特币矿工的流出情况。</p>
</div><p>Technically, high MPI means more selling, while negative readings point to a HODLing mindset, reinforcing conviction in Bitcoin. So, with the current -0.9 reading, miners are leaning toward HODLing rather than dumping.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从技术上讲，高 MPI 意味着更多的抛售，而负值则指向持有心态，增强了对比特币的信念。因此，当前的-0.9 读数表明矿工更倾向于持有而不是抛售。</p>
</div><p>That’s a solid signal for the market: Despite rising costs, tougher mining difficulty, and BTC’s volatility, Bitcoin miners are sticking around.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对市场来说是一个可靠的信号：尽管成本上升、挖矿难度加大以及 BTC 的波动性，比特币矿工仍然在坚持。</p>
</div><p>While the bottom might not be in yet, miner behavior is showing underlying resilience.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然底部可能还没有到来，但矿工的行为显示出潜在的韧性。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最后的思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Even with the average cost to mine 1 BTC hitting around $74,600, miners are leaning toward HODLing rather than selling.</em></li>
<li><em>This conviction has become a key market signal for Bitcoin’s next move.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>即使挖掘 1 个 BTC 的平均成本达到约 74,600 美元，矿工仍然倾向于持有而不是出售。</em></li>
<li><em>这种信念已成为比特币下一个走势的关键市场信号。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

比特币矿工面临历史最高成本：这对比特币（BTC）意味着什么