<p>根据分析师的预测，香港房价在 2026 年可能会因大陆买家、利率下调和未售新房减少而上涨最多 5%。\n 此外，印花税调整和香港复苏的股市也预计将有助于维持该市住宅物业市场的稳定，JLL 和高纬环球表示。\nJLL 分析师表示，这些因素预计将帮助减少香港开发商的过剩库存，到明年年底将恢复到正常水平。\n“房价已经触底，2026 年的前景谨慎乐观，” JLL 香港主席蔡崇信表示。“我们预计资本价值将上涨约 5%，而豪宅的价值将保持基本平稳。豪宅租金预计将上涨最多 5%。”\n 如果这一预测成真，将对自 2021 年底以来一直处于下行趋势的香港房地产市场带来好消息。\n 根据官方数据，今年 3 月，已住住宅价格较 2021 年 9 月的峰值下跌了 28.4%。这一下滑发生在库存水平高企的背景下，2023 年和 2024 年分别需要 101.6 个月和 67.4 个月才能清理库存。\n\n 根据 JLL 的数据，截至 11 月，房屋销售同比增长超过五分之一，未售库存有所减少。它表示，到今年年底，未售库存的数量将相当于 51.3 个月的供应量，这一水平是 2015 年至 2021 年的平均水平。\n 预计到 2026 年底，私人住房供应也将恢复正常，仅需 44.7 个月即可清理当前库存。今年迄今为止，二手房价格上涨了 1.8%。\n 对于新房推出，JLL 表示约 30% 的买家来自大陆。在启德和九龙站的项目中，这一比例超过 60%。\n 对于豪宅市场或价格至少为 1 亿港元（1285 万美元）的单位，JLL 项目战略与咨询高级总监李诺瑞表示，超过 90% 的买家来自大陆。\n“我们观察到，今年大陆买家在新大型住宅项目中购买两到五套房的数量显著增加，这受到政府取消调控措施和住房租金持续上涨的推动，” 李说。“之前，他们通常只购买一套价格在 2000 万到 3000 万港元的新房。”\n\n 根据高纬环球的说法，未来一年，香港的大陆购房者数量可能会增加，因为租金在最近几个月已飙升至历史高点。\n 目前，城市中 20% 的购房者的名字使用拼音，即大陆的罗马化中文书写系统，该咨询公司表示。\n“我们预计他们的比例将继续增长，但不会超过本地买家的比例，” 高纬环球估值与咨询服务高级总监赖德嘉表示。“由于资本管制，他们将大额资金转移到香港仍然困难。”\n 其他有助于该市住宅物业市场的因素包括，财政司司长陈茂波在 2 月份宣布将售价在 400 万港元至 100 万港元的房屋印花税从 6 万港元减至 100 港元。在此之前，100 港元的激励措施仅适用于售价在 300 万港元以下的房屋。\n\n 根据 CBRE 的数据，售价在 400 万港元以下的房屋在 2024 年的住宅销售中占四分之一。该咨询公司表示，印花税的减免预计将使这一部分的比例增加到 30%。\n 香港金融管理局（HKMA）在 9 月份恢复宽松政策后，利率的下调也有助于该市的房地产市场。\n10 月份，HKMA 将基准利率下调了 25 个基点至 4.25%，为 2022 年 11 月以来的最低水平，减轻了借款人的按揭支付压力。\n 此外，基准的恒生指数今年迄今已上涨超过 30%，对居民产生了财富效应，提升了购房情绪，JLL 表示。</p>

<p>香港的房价预计将在 2026 年上涨最多 5%，主要受到内地买家的推动、利率下调以及未售出公寓数量减少的影响。JLL 和高纬物业的分析师预计，这些因素将有助于市场稳定，豪宅租金也将上涨最多 5%。印花税的减免和复苏的股市也在促进积极的市场情绪。内地买家越来越多地购买多套公寓，他们的参与预计将增加，尽管本地买家仍将占主导地位</p>

<p>Hong Kong home prices are likely to see up to a 5 per cent boost in 2026 on the back of mainland Chinese buyers, interest rate cuts and fewer unsold new flats, according to analysts.\nIn addition, the stamp duty adjustment and Hong Kong’s resurgent stock market were also expected to help sustain stability in the city’s residential property market, according to JLL and Cushman &amp; Wakefield.\nThose factors, JLL analysts said, were projected to help trim Hong Kong developers’ swollen inventory, which would drop back to their normal level by the end of next year.\n“Housing prices have bottomed out, and the outlook for 2026 is cautiously optimistic,” said Joseph Tsang Hon-ping, chairman of JLL in Hong Kong. “We expect capital values to rise by about 5 per cent, while luxury residential values will remain broadly flat. Luxury rents are projected to increase by up to 5 per cent.”\nShould that forecast unfold, it would be welcome news to the city’s housing property market, which has been in a downturn since late 2021.\nLived-in home prices fell by as much as 28.4 per cent in March this year from their peak in September 2021, according to official data. That slump came amid elevated inventory levels, which required 101.6 months and 67.4 months to clear in 2023 and 2024, respectively.\n\nWith home sales up more than a fifth on an annual basis as of November, unsold inventory had declined, according to JLL. It said it said that the number of unsold inventory would be equal to 51.3 months' worth of supply by the end of this year, which was the average level from 2015 to 2021.\nPrivate housing supply was also expected to normalise by end of 2026, requiring just 44.7 months to clear the current inventory, the property consultancy added. So far this year, second-hand home prices have risen 1.8 per cent.\nFor new home launches, JLL said about 30 per cent of buyers were from the mainland. That number exceeded 60 per cent for projects in Kai Tak and the Kowloon Station.\nFor the luxury residential segment or units that cost at least HK$100 million (US$12.85 million), more than 90 per cent of buyers were from the mainland, according to Norry Lee, senior director of projects strategy and consultancy at JLL.\n“We observed a significant increase in mainland buyers acquiring two to five flats in new mass residential projects for leasing this year, driven by the government’s removal of cooling measures and the continued rise in housing rents,” Lee said. “Previously, they typically bought only one new flat priced from HK$20 million to HK$30 million.”\n\nThe number of mainland homebuyers in Hong Kong was likely to increase in the coming year, as rental prices have surged to their historical peak in recent months, according to Cushman.\nCurrently, 20 per cent of homebuyers in the city had names in pinyin, the mainland’s system of romanised Chinese script, the consultancy said.\n“We expect their share to continue growing, but it will not surpass that of local buyers,” said Edgar Lai, senior director of valuation and advisory services at Cushman. “Due to capital controls, it remains difficult for them to transfer large amounts of capital into Hong Kong.”\nOther factors that have helped the city’s residential property segment were the reduction of the stamp duty on homes that cost up to HK$4 million to HK$100 from HK$60,000, which was announced by Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po in February. Before that, the HK$100 incentive was only extended to homes priced up to HK$3 million.\n\nHomes that cost up to HK$4 million accounted for a quarter of residential sales in 2024, according to CBRE. The cut in the stamp duty was expected to increase the share of this segment to 30 per cent, the consultancy said.\nThe interest rate cuts by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), which resumed its easing stance in September, have also helped the city’s property market.\nIn October, the HKMA cut its base rate by a quarter point to 4.25 per cent, the lowest since November 2022, easing mortgage payments for borrowers.\nIn addition, the bellwether Hang Seng Index, which gained more than 30 per cent so far this year, had a wealth effect on residents, lifting sentiment for homebuying, according to JLL.\n</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据分析师的预测，香港房价在 2026 年可能会因大陆买家、利率下调和未售新房减少而上涨最多 5%。\n 此外，印花税调整和香港复苏的股市也预计将有助于维持该市住宅物业市场的稳定，JLL 和高纬环球表示。\nJLL 分析师表示，这些因素预计将帮助减少香港开发商的过剩库存，到明年年底将恢复到正常水平。\n“房价已经触底，2026 年的前景谨慎乐观，” JLL 香港主席蔡崇信表示。“我们预计资本价值将上涨约 5%，而豪宅的价值将保持基本平稳。豪宅租金预计将上涨最多 5%。”\n 如果这一预测成真，将对自 2021 年底以来一直处于下行趋势的香港房地产市场带来好消息。\n 根据官方数据，今年 3 月，已住住宅价格较 2021 年 9 月的峰值下跌了 28.4%。这一下滑发生在库存水平高企的背景下，2023 年和 2024 年分别需要 101.6 个月和 67.4 个月才能清理库存。\n\n 根据 JLL 的数据，截至 11 月，房屋销售同比增长超过五分之一，未售库存有所减少。它表示，到今年年底，未售库存的数量将相当于 51.3 个月的供应量，这一水平是 2015 年至 2021 年的平均水平。\n 预计到 2026 年底，私人住房供应也将恢复正常，仅需 44.7 个月即可清理当前库存。今年迄今为止，二手房价格上涨了 1.8%。\n 对于新房推出，JLL 表示约 30% 的买家来自大陆。在启德和九龙站的项目中，这一比例超过 60%。\n 对于豪宅市场或价格至少为 1 亿港元（1285 万美元）的单位，JLL 项目战略与咨询高级总监李诺瑞表示，超过 90% 的买家来自大陆。\n“我们观察到，今年大陆买家在新大型住宅项目中购买两到五套房的数量显著增加，这受到政府取消调控措施和住房租金持续上涨的推动，” 李说。“之前，他们通常只购买一套价格在 2000 万到 3000 万港元的新房。”\n\n 根据高纬环球的说法，未来一年，香港的大陆购房者数量可能会增加，因为租金在最近几个月已飙升至历史高点。\n 目前，城市中 20% 的购房者的名字使用拼音，即大陆的罗马化中文书写系统，该咨询公司表示。\n“我们预计他们的比例将继续增长，但不会超过本地买家的比例，” 高纬环球估值与咨询服务高级总监赖德嘉表示。“由于资本管制，他们将大额资金转移到香港仍然困难。”\n 其他有助于该市住宅物业市场的因素包括，财政司司长陈茂波在 2 月份宣布将售价在 400 万港元至 100 万港元的房屋印花税从 6 万港元减至 100 港元。在此之前，100 港元的激励措施仅适用于售价在 300 万港元以下的房屋。\n\n 根据 CBRE 的数据，售价在 400 万港元以下的房屋在 2024 年的住宅销售中占四分之一。该咨询公司表示，印花税的减免预计将使这一部分的比例增加到 30%。\n 香港金融管理局（HKMA）在 9 月份恢复宽松政策后，利率的下调也有助于该市的房地产市场。\n10 月份，HKMA 将基准利率下调了 25 个基点至 4.25%，为 2022 年 11 月以来的最低水平，减轻了借款人的按揭支付压力。\n 此外，基准的恒生指数今年迄今已上涨超过 30%，对居民产生了财富效应，提升了购房情绪，JLL 表示。</p>
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由于大陆买家的推动和降息，香港房价预计将在 2026 年上涨