<p>当大多数交易者开始接触期权时，他们会感到不知所措。我理解这种感觉。</p>
<p>期权变动迅速。它们有自己独特的语言。它们波动性大。错误的建议可能意味着盈利交易和巨额亏损之间的差别。</p>
<p>我已经专业交易超过 27 年。我做过你能想象的每一个好赌注——也有很多坏赌注，导致我损失了资本。</p>
<p>好的和坏的？这些经历使得《交易大师》如此特别。你可以从我的错误中学习，而不必亲自经历它们。你还会发现那些帮助我从期权市场中获得最丰厚机会的策略。</p>
<p>在期权交易中，理解波动性等概念如何影响市场对成功至关重要。这对于新手和老手交易者都是如此。</p>
<p>听着，波动性是股市中的一个常量。如果你不知道如何管理它，它可能是成功的最大障碍。</p>
<p>所以今天，我将解析每个期权交易者需要理解的关键术语和策略，以便了解我们如何在期权交易的生命周期中管理波动性。我还想向你展示我们用来衡量股市波动性的具体工具。</p>
<p>许多这些术语对你来说可能不熟悉。但在阅读完这些内容后，你将了解交易所需的一切，以便自信地进行交易。</p>
<h2><strong>理解凸性、偏斜和方差</strong></h2>
<p><strong>凸性</strong> 衡量金融工具（如股票）价格对利率变化的敏感程度。如果一只股票的期权具有高凸性，那么它们的价格对利率变化的反应将比低凸性的期权更显著。</p>
<p>这里有一个例子。你可能会注意到 5 年期期权的凸性为 1.11——高于其他凸性低于 1.05 的期权。这意味着这些期权对利率变化更敏感。</p>
<p>预计利率会上升的交易者可能会将高凸性视为获利的机会。相反，预计利率会下降的交易者可能会将其视为风险。毕竟，价格可能会更快地朝不利方向移动。</p>
<p><strong>波动性偏斜</strong> 指的是具有不同执行价格但相同到期日的期权之间隐含波动性的差异。</p>
<p>正偏斜意味着看涨期权的隐含波动性较高。负偏斜意味着看跌期权的隐含波动性较高。</p>
<p>理解偏斜可以帮助交易者预测市场动向，并识别在有吸引力的价格买入或卖出期权的机会。</p>
<p><strong>方差</strong> 衡量资产在一定时期内收益的波动性。高方差表示价格波动的潜力更大。这既可以是机会，也可以是风险。</p>
<p>这里还有一个例子。如果你预计股票价格会有显著波动，高方差可能使得像跨式或勒式这样的期权交易策略更具吸引力。</p>
<h2><strong>单向交易与价差交易：优缺点</strong></h2>
<p><strong>单向交易</strong> 涉及对单只股票或期权的方向进行投机。其优点在于简单，因为你只需处理一个工具。</p>
<p>然而，由于价格波动性较大，它伴随着更高的风险。如果市场条件意外变化，你的头寸可能会遭受重大损失。</p>
<p><strong>价差交易</strong> 涉及同时买入和卖出两个或多个期权。其优点在于降低风险，因为一个头寸的收益可以抵消另一个头寸的损失。</p>
<p>价差交易可能波动性较小。然而，它更复杂，需要对市场有更深入的理解。例如，一个看涨价差可能涉及在一个执行价格买入看涨期权，并在更高的执行价格卖出看涨期权。</p>
<h2><strong>使用波动性工具管理市场风险</strong></h2>
<p><strong>CME 集团波动性指数（CVOL）</strong> 提供关键期货合约预期波动性的实时测量。交易者可以监控以预测潜在的价格波动，并相应调整他们的头寸。这对于对冲潜在损失或利用预期收益非常有价值。</p>
<h2><strong>选择单向交易与价差交易时需考虑的因素</strong></h2>
<ol>
<li><strong>市场条件：</strong> 当前市场波动性可能影响你的决策。较高的波动性可能使价差交易更具吸引力，因为它们可以降低风险。</li>
<li><strong>隐含波动性：</strong> 分析不同期权的隐含波动性。波动性偏斜可能表明潜在的定价错误和机会。</li>
<li><strong>风险承受能力：</strong> 你的个人风险承受能力应指导你的选择。单向交易可能提供更高的回报，但伴随更高的风险。价差交易可以缓解一些风险。</li>
</ol>
<h2><strong>偏斜在期权交易中的重要性</strong></h2>
<p>偏斜帮助你理解市场对未来价格变动的预期。</p>
<p>正偏斜（看涨期权波动性较高）表明市场看涨。负偏斜（看跌期权波动性较高）表明市场看跌。分析偏斜可以帮助你决定是否根据市场的定价错误买入或卖出期权。</p>
<p><strong>这里有一个例子：</strong> 如果一只股票的平值看涨期权的隐含波动性高于看跌期权，这表明存在正偏斜。这可能表明交易者预计股票价格会有显著的上涨。</p>
<h2><strong>方差在期权交易中的作用</strong></h2>
<p>高方差可以增加交易的潜在收益，但也增加了风险。交易者在选择头寸时需要平衡潜在的回报与风险。</p>
<p>在高方差环境中，你可能会选择那些受益于大幅价格波动的期权策略。这包括我在开头提到的策略，如跨式或勒式，即在相同的执行价格同时买入看涨期权和看跌期权。</p>
<h2><strong>总结</strong></h2>
<p>凸性、波动性偏斜和方差对于做出明智的交易决策至关重要。</p>
<p>这些因素提供了市场预测的洞察，帮助你选择最佳的交易策略。这对于单向交易或价差交易都是如此。</p>
<p>分析这些因素可以增强你管理风险和利用市场机会的能力。</p>
<p>除了你刚刚阅读的内容，我还想向你推荐一个我制作的视频解释，展示我如何在我的服务中交易期权偏差。</p>
<p>这对本文中的课程是一个很好的补充，也是我们在交易波动性而非方向时所拥有的力量的证明。<strong>只需点击这里查看。</strong></p>
<p><strong>附言。</strong> <em>周一早上，Louis Navellier、Eric Fry 和 Luke Lango 进行了直播，分享了他们在</em> American Dream 2.0 Summit <em>上所做的最大发现之一。</em></p>
<p><em>他们详细分析了美国正在进行的 11.3 万亿美元的工业建设，以及为什么 1 月 2 日可能是这一趋势急剧上升的时刻。</em></p>
<p><em>团队团结在少数几家位于人工智能基础设施、国内再工业化、稀土、核能、机器人技术和下一代能源中心的小型美国公司周围。</em></p>
<p><em>我也带来了我自己的顶级人工智能推荐。相信我，你不会想错过。</em></p>
<p><strong><em>只需点击这里观看 American Dream 2.0 的重播。</em></strong></p>
<hr/>

芝加哥商品交易所

<p>本指南通过解释凸性、偏斜和方差等关键概念，提供了更智能的期权交易见解。它强调了理解波动性及其对市场影响的重要性。指南还比较了直接交易和价差交易，突出了它们的优点和风险。此外，它介绍了像芝加哥商品交易所波动率指数（CVOL）这样的工具，以帮助管理市场风险。作者分享了他 27 年的交易经验，提供了帮助交易者应对期权交易复杂性和避免常见陷阱的策略</p>

<p>When most traders start out with options, they feel overwhelmed. And I get it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当大多数交易者开始接触期权时，他们会感到不知所措。我理解这种感觉。</p>
</div><p>Options move fast. They have their own language. They’re volatile. The wrong advice can mean the difference between a profitable trade and a staggering loss.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期权变动迅速。它们有自己独特的语言。它们波动性大。错误的建议可能意味着盈利交易和巨额亏损之间的差别。</p>
</div><p>I’ve been trading professionally for over 27 years. I’ve made every good bet you can imagine – and plenty of bad ones that wiped out my capital.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我已经专业交易超过 27 年。我做过你能想象的每一个好赌注——也有很多坏赌注，导致我损失了资本。</p>
</div><p>The good and the bad? Those experiences are what make <em>Masters in Trading</em> so special. You get to learn from my mistakes without making them yourself. And you discover the strategies that have helped me profit from the most profitable opportunities in the options market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好的和坏的？这些经历使得《交易大师》如此特别。你可以从我的错误中学习，而不必亲自经历它们。你还会发现那些帮助我从期权市场中获得最丰厚机会的策略。</p>
</div><p>When it comes to options, understanding how concepts like volatility affect the market is crucial for success. That’s true whether you’re new or a veteran trader.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在期权交易中，理解波动性等概念如何影响市场对成功至关重要。这对于新手和老手交易者都是如此。</p>
</div><p>Look, volatility is a constant in the stock market. And it can be the biggest impediment to success if you don’t know how to manage it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>听着，波动性是股市中的一个常量。如果你不知道如何管理它，它可能是成功的最大障碍。</p>
</div><p>So today, I’m breaking down the key terms and strategies every options trader needs to understand how we manage volatility over the life of an options trade. I also want to show you the exact tools we use to measure volatility in the stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以今天，我将解析每个期权交易者需要理解的关键术语和策略，以便了解我们如何在期权交易的生命周期中管理波动性。我还想向你展示我们用来衡量股市波动性的具体工具。</p>
</div><p>Many of these terms might be unfamiliar to you. But after reading this, you’ll know everything you need to trade confidently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多这些术语对你来说可能不熟悉。但在阅读完这些内容后，你将了解交易所需的一切，以便自信地进行交易。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Understanding Convexity, Skew and Variance</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>理解凸性、偏斜和方差</strong></h2>
</div><p><strong>Convexity</strong> measures how sensitive the price of a financial instrument, such as a stock, is to changes in interest rates. If a stock’s options have high convexity, their prices will react more significantly to interest rate changes compared to options with lower convexity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>凸性</strong> 衡量金融工具（如股票）价格对利率变化的敏感程度。如果一只股票的期权具有高凸性，那么它们的价格对利率变化的反应将比低凸性的期权更显著。</p>
</div><p>Here’s an example. You might notice that 5-year options have a convexity of 1.11 – higher than other options with convexity below 1.05. That implies these options are more sensitive to interest rate changes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这里有一个例子。你可能会注意到 5 年期期权的凸性为 1.11——高于其他凸性低于 1.05 的期权。这意味着这些期权对利率变化更敏感。</p>
</div><p>Traders who expect interest rates to rise might see high convexity as an opportunity for profit. Conversely, those expecting rates to fall might consider this a risk. After all, prices could move against them more quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计利率会上升的交易者可能会将高凸性视为获利的机会。相反，预计利率会下降的交易者可能会将其视为风险。毕竟，价格可能会更快地朝不利方向移动。</p>
</div><p><strong>Volatility Skew</strong> refers to the difference in implied volatility between options with different strike prices but the same expiration date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>波动性偏斜</strong> 指的是具有不同执行价格但相同到期日的期权之间隐含波动性的差异。</p>
</div><p>Positive skew means higher implied volatility for call options. Negative skew means higher implied volatility for put options.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正偏斜意味着看涨期权的隐含波动性较高。负偏斜意味着看跌期权的隐含波动性较高。</p>
</div><p>Understanding the skew can help traders anticipate market movements and identify opportunities for buying or selling options at attractive prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>理解偏斜可以帮助交易者预测市场动向，并识别在有吸引力的价格买入或卖出期权的机会。</p>
</div><p><strong>Variance</strong> measures the volatility of an asset’s returns over a certain period. High variance indicates higher potential for price swings. This can be both an opportunity and a risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>方差</strong> 衡量资产在一定时期内收益的波动性。高方差表示价格波动的潜力更大。这既可以是机会，也可以是风险。</p>
</div><p>Here’s another example. If you expect significant movements in a stock’s price, high variance might make options trading strategies like straddles or strangles more appealing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这里还有一个例子。如果你预计股票价格会有显著波动，高方差可能使得像跨式或勒式这样的期权交易策略更具吸引力。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Outright vs. Spread Trading: Benefits and Risks</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>单向交易与价差交易：优缺点</strong></h2>
</div><p><strong>Outright Trading</strong> involves speculating on the direction of a single stock or option. The benefit is simplicity, as you’re only dealing with one instrument.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>单向交易</strong> 涉及对单只股票或期权的方向进行投机。其优点在于简单，因为你只需处理一个工具。</p>
</div><p>However, it comes with higher risk due to greater price volatility. Your position might suffer significant losses if market conditions change unexpectedly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，由于价格波动性较大，它伴随着更高的风险。如果市场条件意外变化，你的头寸可能会遭受重大损失。</p>
</div><p><strong>Spread Trading</strong> involves buying and selling two or more options simultaneously. The benefit is reduced risk since gains in one position can offset losses in another.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>价差交易</strong> 涉及同时买入和卖出两个或多个期权。其优点在于降低风险，因为一个头寸的收益可以抵消另一个头寸的损失。</p>
</div><p>Spread trading can be less volatile. However, it’s more complex and requires a deeper understanding of the market. For example, a call spread might involve buying a call option at one strike price and selling a call option at a higher strike price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>价差交易可能波动性较小。然而，它更复杂，需要对市场有更深入的理解。例如，一个看涨价差可能涉及在一个执行价格买入看涨期权，并在更高的执行价格卖出看涨期权。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Using Volatility Tools to Manage Market Risk</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>使用波动性工具管理市场风险</strong></h2>
</div><p><strong>The CME Group Volatility Index (CVOL)</strong> provides real-time measures of expected volatility for key futures contracts. Traders can monitor to anticipate potential price swings and adjust their positions accordingly. This is valuable for hedging against potential losses or capitalizing on expected gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>CME 集团波动性指数（CVOL）</strong> 提供关键期货合约预期波动性的实时测量。交易者可以监控以预测潜在的价格波动，并相应调整他们的头寸。这对于对冲潜在损失或利用预期收益非常有价值。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Factors to Consider When Choosing Between Outright and Spread Trading</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>选择单向交易与价差交易时需考虑的因素</strong></h2>
</div><ol>
<li><strong>Market Conditions:</strong> Current market volatility can impact your decision. Higher volatility might make spreads more appealing as they can reduce risk.</li>
<li><strong>Implied Volatility:</strong> Analyze the implied volatility of different options. Volatility skew can indicate potential mispricing and opportunities.</li>
<li><strong>Risk Tolerance:</strong> Your individual risk tolerance should guide your choice. Outright trades might offer higher rewards but come with higher risks. Spreads can mitigate some risks.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li><strong>市场条件：</strong> 当前市场波动性可能影响你的决策。较高的波动性可能使价差交易更具吸引力，因为它们可以降低风险。</li>
<li><strong>隐含波动性：</strong> 分析不同期权的隐含波动性。波动性偏斜可能表明潜在的定价错误和机会。</li>
<li><strong>风险承受能力：</strong> 你的个人风险承受能力应指导你的选择。单向交易可能提供更高的回报，但伴随更高的风险。价差交易可以缓解一些风险。</li>
</ol>
</div><h2><strong>The Importance of Skew in Options Trading</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>偏斜在期权交易中的重要性</strong></h2>
</div><p>Skew helps you understand market expectations for future price movements.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>偏斜帮助你理解市场对未来价格变动的预期。</p>
</div><p>Positive skew (higher call option volatility) suggests a bullish market outlook.Negative skew (higher put option volatility) suggests a bearish outlook. Analyzing skew can help you decide whether to buy or sell options based on perceived market mispricings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正偏斜（看涨期权波动性较高）表明市场看涨。负偏斜（看跌期权波动性较高）表明市场看跌。分析偏斜可以帮助你决定是否根据市场的定价错误买入或卖出期权。</p>
</div><p><strong>Here’s an example:</strong> If out-of-the-money call options on a stock show higher implied volatility than put options, it indicates a positive skew. This might signal that traders expect significant upward movement in the stock’s price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>这里有一个例子：</strong> 如果一只股票的平值看涨期权的隐含波动性高于看跌期权，这表明存在正偏斜。这可能表明交易者预计股票价格会有显著的上涨。</p>
</div><h2><strong>The Role of Variance in Options Trading</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>方差在期权交易中的作用</strong></h2>
</div><p>High variance can increase the potential payoff of a trade but also its risk. Traders need to balance the potential rewards against the risks when choosing their positions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高方差可以增加交易的潜在收益，但也增加了风险。交易者在选择头寸时需要平衡潜在的回报与风险。</p>
</div><p>In a high-variance environment, you might choose options strategies that benefit from large price movements. Thes include strategies I mentioned at the top like straddles or strangles, where you buy both a call and a put option at the same strike price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在高方差环境中，你可能会选择那些受益于大幅价格波动的期权策略。这包括我在开头提到的策略，如跨式或勒式，即在相同的执行价格同时买入看涨期权和看跌期权。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Summing It Up</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>总结</strong></h2>
</div><p>Convexity, volatility skew, and variance are crucial for making informed trading decisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>凸性、波动性偏斜和方差对于做出明智的交易决策至关重要。</p>
</div><p>These factors provide insights into market forecasts and help you choose the best trading strategies. That’s true whether you’re outright trading or trading spreads.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些因素提供了市场预测的洞察，帮助你选择最佳的交易策略。这对于单向交易或价差交易都是如此。</p>
</div><p>Analyzing these elements can enhance your ability to manage risk and capitalize on market opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析这些因素可以增强你管理风险和利用市场机会的能力。</p>
</div><p>In addition to what you’ve just read, I’d like to point you toward a video explainer I put together demonstrating how I trade options skews across my services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了你刚刚阅读的内容，我还想向你推荐一个我制作的视频解释，展示我如何在我的服务中交易期权偏差。</p>
</div><p>It’s a great addendum to the lessons in this article and a testament to the power we wield in trading volatility <em>rather than</em> direction. <strong>Just click here to check it out.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对本文中的课程是一个很好的补充，也是我们在交易波动性而非方向时所拥有的力量的证明。<strong>只需点击这里查看。</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>P.S.</strong> <em>On Monday morning, Louis Navellier, Eric Fry, and Luke Lango went live with one of the biggest discoveries they’ve ever made with their</em> American Dream 2.0 Summit <em>.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>附言。</strong> <em>周一早上，Louis Navellier、Eric Fry 和 Luke Lango 进行了直播，分享了他们在</em> American Dream 2.0 Summit <em>上所做的最大发现之一。</em></p>
</div><p><em>They broke down the $11.3 trillion industrial buildout underway in the U.S.—and why January 2 could be the moment this trend goes vertical.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>他们详细分析了美国正在进行的 11.3 万亿美元的工业建设，以及为什么 1 月 2 日可能是这一趋势急剧上升的时刻。</em></p>
</div><p><em>The team has united behind a handful of small U.S. companies positioned at the center of AI infrastructure, domestic re-industrialization, rare earths, nuclear power, robotics, and next-generation energy.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>团队团结在少数几家位于人工智能基础设施、国内再工业化、稀土、核能、机器人技术和下一代能源中心的小型美国公司周围。</em></p>
</div><p><em>I also showed up in with my own top AI recommendations. Trust me, you won’t want to miss it.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>我也带来了我自己的顶级人工智能推荐。相信我，你不会想错过。</em></p>
</div><p><strong><em>Just click here to watch the replay of American Dream 2.0.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>只需点击这里观看 American Dream 2.0 的重播。</em></strong></p>
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凸性、偏度、方差——您的智能期权交易指南