<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1606189933777-a56d876d692d/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1NWHd4TWpBM2ZEQjhNSHh3YUc5MGJ5MXdZV2RsZkh4OGZHVnVmREI4Zkh3PSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1606189933777-a56d876d692d/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1NWHd4TWpBM2ZEQjhNSHh3YUc5MGJ5MXdZV2RsZkh4OGZHVnVmREI4Zkh3PSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
<p>今天是 FOMC 声明日。剧透一下，杰伊·鲍威尔及其团队将会将利率下调 0.25%。对于那些认为过去一个月概率变化如此剧烈的评论员来说，根本不应该有任何争论。实际上并没有，只有那些不关注的人才会认为美联储不会降息或通胀是个问题。事实并非如此。</p>
<p>今天的股市模型比平时更强，预计在下午 2 点之前波动在正负 0.50% 之间，然后会出现反弹。由于今天缺乏上涨的热情，资金应该在今天早些时候投入，强度比平时更大。</p>
<p>正如我今年的论点一样，劳动力市场较弱但并不疲软。我预计在接下来的几个月中会有所增强。经济继续带来惊喜，但尚未全面复苏。这个机会将在 2026 年初到来。我足够老，记得 8 个月前，在关税风波期间，一些媒体喜欢展示的华尔街高管们对关税导致通胀飙升的预测完全失误。还有那些嘲笑地呼吁重演 2008 年或更糟的人。我们的非情绪模型不仅没有预测更多的通胀和经济末日，而且我当时坚信股市在下跌近 20% 时，肯定会达到历史新高，尽管需要的时间超过两个月。</p>
<p>以下是我最喜欢的、通常也是解读美联储时最重要的图表。联邦基金利率跟随 2 年期国债。自 2023 年初以来，2 年期国债几乎一直低于联邦基金利率，这表明美联储过于紧缩。市场希望尽快再降 1-2 次息。我的朋友吉姆·保尔森写了一篇文章，讨论了股市牛市伴随着历史上最不宽松的政策，这是一项极好的观察。这也说明了在没有美联储支持的情况下，牛市是多么强劲。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investfortomorrow.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/UST2Y.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investfortomorrow.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/UST2Y.png"/></p>
<p>最后，关于市场，我在纽约市忙于媒体工作，我们在 2022 年设定的道琼斯 50000 的最低上涨目标预计将在 2026 年第一季度实现。虽然这仅仅是 5% 的距离，但当时道琼斯指数还在 30000 以下。从短期来看，任何和所有的弱势仍然是买入机会，自四月以来我一直这样认为。大众继续在年末追逐表现，很多人面临失业风险，因为他们在四月情绪化地恐慌抛售，并且自那时以来一直坚持叙述而非数据。</p>
<p>我将很快发布我的 2026 年无畏预测的零星内容。整体主题是，2026 年对股票来说应该是自 2022 年以来最糟糕的一年，这并不一定意味着糟糕的一年，只是没有过去三年那么强劲。</p>
<p>周一，我们购买了 SSO 和更多的 TQQQ。我们卖出了 SDS、SQQQ、OSIS、GWRE 和 EMB。周二，我们购买了 PFF、IWN 和更多的 MTUM。我们卖出了 IJT 和 PCY。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>新高即将到来，风险加大，进入美联储会议</p>
<p>指数准备迎接新高，但最好不要先失败</p>
<p>多头逆转潮流——历史新高——比特币</p>

<p>预计美联储将下调利率 0.25%，股票市场模型显示公告后将出现反弹。经济正在改善，预计就业市场将更强劲。尽管美联储政策收紧，道琼斯指数预计将在 2026 年第一季度达到 50,000。最近的股票交易包括购买 SSO、TQQQ、PFF、IWN、MTUM，以及出售 SDS、SQQQ、OSIS、GWRE、EMB、IJT、PCY。2026 年的预测显示，股票市场将比近年来表现疲软</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1606189933777-a56d876d692d/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1NWHd4TWpBM2ZEQjhNSHh3YUc5MGJ5MXdZV2RsZkh4OGZHVnVmREI4Zkh3PSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1606189933777-a56d876d692d?ixid=MXwxMjA3fDB8MHxwaG90by1wYWdlfHx8fGVufDB8fHw%3D&amp;ixlib=rb-1.2.1&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;w=1000&amp;q=80"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
</div><p>Today is FOMC statement day. Spoiler alert. Jay Powell &amp; Company will be cutting interest rates by 1/4%. There shouldn’t even be a debate from all of the pundits who think the odds have swung so wildly over the past month. They haven’t, and only people not paying attention think the Fed doesn’t cut or that inflation is a problem. It’s not.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天是 FOMC 声明日。剧透一下，杰伊·鲍威尔及其团队将会将利率下调 0.25%。对于那些认为过去一个月概率变化如此剧烈的评论员来说，根本不应该有任何争论。实际上并没有，只有那些不关注的人才会认为美联储不会降息或通胀是个问题。事实并非如此。</p>
</div><p>The stock market model for the day is stronger than usual, calling for plus or minus 0.50% until 2 pm and then a rally. There is added strength that money should be committed early in the day, and more so than normal, because of the lack of upside enthusiasm into today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的股市模型比平时更强，预计在下午 2 点之前波动在正负 0.50% 之间，然后会出现反弹。由于今天缺乏上涨的热情，资金应该在今天早些时候投入，强度比平时更大。</p>
</div><p>As has been my thesis all year, the jobs market is weaker but not weak. And I do expect a strengthening over the coming few months. The economy continues to surprise to the upside, but it is not yet firing on all cylinders. That opportunity is coming in early 2026. I am old enough to remember 8 months ago, during the tariff tantrum, when some of the high-profile Wall Street types that the media loves to parade out as experts fell flat on their faces with cries about tariffs leading to spiking or soaring inflation. And then there were those who laughingly called for a repeat of 2008 or worse. Not only did our non-emotional models not call for more inflation and economic Armageddon, but I was pounding the table that the stock market, down almost 20% at the time, was easily going to all-time highs, albeit longer than two months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我今年的论点一样，劳动力市场较弱但并不疲软。我预计在接下来的几个月中会有所增强。经济继续带来惊喜，但尚未全面复苏。这个机会将在 2026 年初到来。我足够老，记得 8 个月前，在关税风波期间，一些媒体喜欢展示的华尔街高管们对关税导致通胀飙升的预测完全失误。还有那些嘲笑地呼吁重演 2008 年或更糟的人。我们的非情绪模型不仅没有预测更多的通胀和经济末日，而且我当时坚信股市在下跌近 20% 时，肯定会达到历史新高，尽管需要的时间超过两个月。</p>
</div><p>Below is my favorite and usually the most important chart when it comes to reading the Fed. The Fed Funds Rate follows the 2-Year Treasury. The 2-Year has been below the Fed Funds for almost all time since early 2023, which says the Fed is and has been overly restrictive. The market wants 1-2 more cuts sooner than later. My friend, Jim Paulsen, wrote a piece discussing how the bull market in stocks has been accompanied by the least accommodative policy in history, which is an excellent observation. It also says just how strong the bull has been without the Fed’s tailwind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是我最喜欢的、通常也是解读美联储时最重要的图表。联邦基金利率跟随 2 年期国债。自 2023 年初以来，2 年期国债几乎一直低于联邦基金利率，这表明美联储过于紧缩。市场希望尽快再降 1-2 次息。我的朋友吉姆·保尔森写了一篇文章，讨论了股市牛市伴随着历史上最不宽松的政策，这是一项极好的观察。这也说明了在没有美联储支持的情况下，牛市是多么强劲。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investfortomorrow.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/UST2Y.png" alt="" original-src="https://investfortomorrow.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/UST2Y.png"/></p>
<p>Finally, and quickly on the markets, as I have a busy day in NYC with media, our Dow 50,000 minimum upside target from 2022 should be achieved in Q1 2026. While that is only 5% away, it was modeled when the Dow was below 30,000. In the shorter term, any and all weakness remains a buying opportunity as I have offered since April. The masses continue to play performance chase into year-end, and an awful lot of folks are at risk of losing their jobs, having panic sold emotionally in April and clinging to a narrative instead of data ever since.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，关于市场，我在纽约市忙于媒体工作，我们在 2022 年设定的道琼斯 50000 的最低上涨目标预计将在 2026 年第一季度实现。虽然这仅仅是 5% 的距离，但当时道琼斯指数还在 30000 以下。从短期来看，任何和所有的弱势仍然是买入机会，自四月以来我一直这样认为。大众继续在年末追逐表现，很多人面临失业风险，因为他们在四月情绪化地恐慌抛售，并且自那时以来一直坚持叙述而非数据。</p>
</div><p>I will be releasing drips and drabs of my 2026 Fearless Forecast shortly. The overall theme will be that 2026 for stocks should see the worst year since 2022, which doesn’t necessarily mean a bad year, just not as strong as the last three enjoyable years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我将很快发布我的 2026 年无畏预测的零星内容。整体主题是，2026 年对股票来说应该是自 2022 年以来最糟糕的一年，这并不一定意味着糟糕的一年，只是没有过去三年那么强劲。</p>
</div><p>On Monday, we bought SSO and more TQQQ. We sold SDS, SQQQ, OSIS, GWRE, and EMB. On Tuesday, we bought PFF, IWN, and more MTUM. We sold IJT and PCY.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周一，我们购买了 SSO 和更多的 TQQQ。我们卖出了 SDS、SQQQ、OSIS、GWRE 和 EMB。周二，我们购买了 PFF、IWN 和更多的 MTUM。我们卖出了 IJT 和 PCY。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>New Highs Up Next With Higher Risk Leading Into Fed Meeting</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新高即将到来，风险加大，进入美联储会议</p>
</div><p>Indices Poised For New Highs But They Better Not Fail First</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>指数准备迎接新高，但最好不要先失败</p>
</div><p>Bulls Turn Tide – All-Time Highs – Bitcoin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多头逆转潮流——历史新高——比特币</p>
</div>

特别的美联储日更新——降息和道琼斯指数达到 50,000 点即将到来