<ul>
<li>如果你在想德尔（Deere）在经历了长时间的上涨后是否仍然值得投资，这篇分析将探讨当前价格是否提供了真正的价值，还是仅仅反映了已经被市场定价的美好故事。</li>
<li>该股票在短期内略有降温，过去一周股价下跌约 1.3%，过去一个月下跌 1.1%，但截至目前年初至今仍上涨 10.7%，五年内上涨 88.5%。这使得时机和估值显得尤为重要。</li>
<li>最近的头条新闻集中在德尔在精准农业技术和自动化方面的持续推进，因为公司加大对软件驱动的农业解决方案的投入，以保持其竞争优势。同时，投资者也在权衡设备的周期性需求和不断变化的农业经济如何影响这一战略的可持续性。</li>
<li>目前，德尔的估值检查得分为 3/6，表明在某些指标上看起来被低估，但并非所有。这使得它成为一个有用的例子，可以在多种估值方法之间进行比较，并在本文后面探讨更全面的思考方式，以了解该股票的真实价值。</li>
</ul>
<p>了解为什么德尔过去一年的 5.7% 回报率落后于同行。</p>
<h3>方法一：德尔折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
<p>折现现金流模型通过预测企业未来能够产生的现金流并将这些现金流折现回现在，来估算企业今天的价值。</p>
<p>对于德尔，最新的 12 个月自由现金流约为 36 亿美元。分析师预计这一数字将显著增长，预计到 2030 年自由现金流将达到约 124 亿美元。在接下来的五年分析师预测之外，Simply Wall St 进一步推测增长，建立了一个两阶段自由现金流到股权模型，涵盖了高增长期和更成熟阶段。</p>
<p>基于此，DCF 模型得出的内在价值约为每股 628 美元。与当前市场价格相比，这表明德尔的交易价格比其估计的公允价值低 26.3%，这意味着现金流前景比当前股价反映的要强劲。</p>
<p><strong>结果：被低估</strong></p>
<p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明德尔被低估了 26.3%。将其添加到你的观察列表或投资组合中，或发现基于现金流的 900 多只被低估股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/aaea2ecf-c4c6-40d1-b0b5-d99254559a35/chart/dcf?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1706" height="760" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/aaea2ecf-c4c6-40d1-b0b5-d99254559a35/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的德尔折现现金流</p>
<p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出德尔的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
<h3>方法二：德尔价格与收益</h3>
<p>对于像德尔这样的盈利且成熟的企业，市盈率是一个有用的衡量标准，因为它直接将股价与每股产生的利润联系起来。投资者通常认为，具有更强增长前景和较低感知风险的公司应该以更高的市盈率交易，而增长较慢或风险较高的公司则应以较低的市盈率交易。</p>
<p>德尔目前的市盈率约为 24.9 倍。这大致与更广泛的机械行业平均水平约为 24.9 倍相符，但略高于同行平均水平约 22.7 倍，这表明投资者已经为德尔支付了相对于类似公司的小额溢价。</p>
<p>Simply Wall St 还计算出一个专有的公允比率为 34.3 倍，这代表了考虑到德尔的盈利增长、盈利能力、行业定位、市值和风险特征后，你可能期望的市盈率。这个量身定制的公允比率比基本的同行或行业比较更具信息性，因为它调整了公司特定的优势和风险，而不是假设所有机械股票都应获得相同的评级。由于德尔当前的 24.9 倍倍数远低于这一 34.3 倍的公允比率，因此从盈利角度来看，股票似乎被吸引性地定价。</p>
<p><strong>结果：被低估</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/aaea2ecf-c4c6-40d1-b0b5-d99254559a35/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1640" height="650" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/aaea2ecf-c4c6-40d1-b0b5-d99254559a35/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的纽约证券交易所：DE 市盈率</p>
<p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1447 家公司，内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长。</p>
<h3>提升你的决策能力：选择你的德尔叙事</h3>
<p>早些时候我们提到有一种更好的理解估值的方法，因此让我们向你介绍叙事，这只是你对公司的故事转化为未来收入、收益、利润率和公允价值估算等具体数字。叙事将你对德尔业务的看法联系起来，例如精准农业订阅将推动收益的快速恢复，尽管面临周期性下滑，连接到一组财务预测，然后与当前股价进行比较，以决定是买入、持有还是卖出。在 Simply Wall St，数百万投资者在社区页面上使用叙事，他们可以快速创建、调整和分享这些与故事相关的估值，并在新信息（如收益或新闻）到达时动态更新。对于德尔，一个乐观的叙事可能假设收益接近分析师预期的高端，并支持接近最乐观价格目标约 724 美元的公允价值，而一个更谨慎的叙事可能倾向于较低的收益区间，公允价值接近最悲观目标约 460 美元。</p>
<p>你认为德尔的故事还有更多内容吗？前往我们的社区看看其他人怎么说！</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/aaea2ecf-c4c6-40d1-b0b5-d99254559a35/chart/quote-price?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1510" height="1044" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/aaea2ecf-c4c6-40d1-b0b5-d99254559a35/chart/quote-price"/></p>
<p>纽约证券交易所：DE 1 年股票价格走势图</p>
<p><em>这篇来自 Simply Wall St 的文章具有一般性。<strong>我们仅基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，采用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不意图作为财务建议。</strong> 它不构成购买或出售任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。</em></p>

迪尔

<p>迪尔的股票在五年内上涨了 88.5%，在其精准农业技术推动后进行了价值分析。尽管近期有所降温，但年初至今仍上涨了 10.7%。折现现金流分析表明，其被低估了 26.3%，内在价值为每股 628 美元。其市盈率为 24.9 倍，低于公允市盈率 34.3 倍，显示出具有吸引力的估值。投资者在考虑周期性需求和农业经济的同时，也在权衡迪尔的技术战略。叙述提供了一种整体估值方法，将商业信念与财务预测联系起来</p>

<ul>
<li>If you have been wondering whether Deere is still a buy after its long run, this breakdown will walk through whether the current price offers genuine value or just reflects a great story already priced in.</li>
<li>The stock has cooled slightly in the short term, with shares down around 1.3% over the last week and 1.1% over the past month, but it is still up 10.7% year to date and 88.5% over 5 years. This makes timing and valuation especially important.</li>
<li>Recent headlines have focused on Deere's continued push into precision agriculture technology and automation, as the company doubles down on software driven farming solutions to keep its competitive edge. At the same time, investors are weighing how cyclical demand for equipment and evolving farm economics might affect the sustainability of that strategy.</li>
<li>Right now, Deere scores a 3/6 valuation check score, suggesting it looks undervalued on some measures but not all. This makes it a useful example to compare across multiple valuation approaches and, later in this article, to explore a more holistic way of thinking about what the stock is really worth.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>如果你在想德尔（Deere）在经历了长时间的上涨后是否仍然值得投资，这篇分析将探讨当前价格是否提供了真正的价值，还是仅仅反映了已经被市场定价的美好故事。</li>
<li>该股票在短期内略有降温，过去一周股价下跌约 1.3%，过去一个月下跌 1.1%，但截至目前年初至今仍上涨 10.7%，五年内上涨 88.5%。这使得时机和估值显得尤为重要。</li>
<li>最近的头条新闻集中在德尔在精准农业技术和自动化方面的持续推进，因为公司加大对软件驱动的农业解决方案的投入，以保持其竞争优势。同时，投资者也在权衡设备的周期性需求和不断变化的农业经济如何影响这一战略的可持续性。</li>
<li>目前，德尔的估值检查得分为 3/6，表明在某些指标上看起来被低估，但并非所有。这使得它成为一个有用的例子，可以在多种估值方法之间进行比较，并在本文后面探讨更全面的思考方式，以了解该股票的真实价值。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Find out why Deere's 5.7% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解为什么德尔过去一年的 5.7% 回报率落后于同行。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 1: Deere Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法一：德尔折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
</div><p>A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth today by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and discounting those cash flows back to the present.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>折现现金流模型通过预测企业未来能够产生的现金流并将这些现金流折现回现在，来估算企业今天的价值。</p>
</div><p>For Deere, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about $3.6 Billion. Analysts expect this to grow meaningfully, with projections reaching roughly $12.4 Billion of Free Cash Flow by 2030. Beyond the next five years of analyst forecasts, Simply Wall St extrapolates further growth to build a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, capturing both a high growth period and a more mature phase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于德尔，最新的 12 个月自由现金流约为 36 亿美元。分析师预计这一数字将显著增长，预计到 2030 年自由现金流将达到约 124 亿美元。在接下来的五年分析师预测之外，Simply Wall St 进一步推测增长，建立了一个两阶段自由现金流到股权模型，涵盖了高增长期和更成熟阶段。</p>
</div><p>On this basis, the DCF model arrives at an intrinsic value of about $628 per share. Compared with the current market price, this suggests Deere is trading at a 26.3% discount to its estimated fair value, which implies the cash flow outlook is stronger than the share price currently reflects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于此，DCF 模型得出的内在价值约为每股 628 美元。与当前市场价格相比，这表明德尔的交易价格比其估计的公允价值低 26.3%，这意味着现金流前景比当前股价反映的要强劲。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: UNDERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：被低估</strong></p>
</div><p>Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Deere is undervalued by 26.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 900 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明德尔被低估了 26.3%。将其添加到你的观察列表或投资组合中，或发现基于现金流的 900 多只被低估股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/aaea2ecf-c4c6-40d1-b0b5-d99254559a35/chart/dcf" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/aaea2ecf-c4c6-40d1-b0b5-d99254559a35/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>DE Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的德尔折现现金流</p>
</div><p>Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Deere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出德尔的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 2: Deere Price vs Earnings</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法二：德尔价格与收益</h3>
</div><p>For profitable, established businesses like Deere, the price to earnings ratio is a useful yardstick because it directly links the share price to the profits each share generates. Investors generally accept that companies with stronger growth prospects and lower perceived risk should trade on higher PE multiples, while slower growing or riskier firms deserve lower ones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于像德尔这样的盈利且成熟的企业，市盈率是一个有用的衡量标准，因为它直接将股价与每股产生的利润联系起来。投资者通常认为，具有更强增长前景和较低感知风险的公司应该以更高的市盈率交易，而增长较慢或风险较高的公司则应以较低的市盈率交易。</p>
</div><p>Deere currently trades on a PE of about 24.9x. That is roughly in line with the wider Machinery industry average of around 24.9x, but modestly above the peer group average of about 22.7x, suggesting investors already pay a small premium for Deere compared with similar companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德尔目前的市盈率约为 24.9 倍。这大致与更广泛的机械行业平均水平约为 24.9 倍相符，但略高于同行平均水平约 22.7 倍，这表明投资者已经为德尔支付了相对于类似公司的小额溢价。</p>
</div><p>Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary Fair Ratio of 34.3x, which represents the PE you might expect once Deere’s earnings growth, profitability, industry positioning, market cap and risk profile are taken into account. This tailored Fair Ratio is more informative than a basic peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for company specific strengths and risks rather than assuming all Machinery stocks deserve the same rating. Since Deere’s current 24.9x multiple sits well below this 34.3x Fair Ratio, the shares appear attractively valued on an earnings basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Simply Wall St 还计算出一个专有的公允比率为 34.3 倍，这代表了考虑到德尔的盈利增长、盈利能力、行业定位、市值和风险特征后，你可能期望的市盈率。这个量身定制的公允比率比基本的同行或行业比较更具信息性，因为它调整了公司特定的优势和风险，而不是假设所有机械股票都应获得相同的评级。由于德尔当前的 24.9 倍倍数远低于这一 34.3 倍的公允比率，因此从盈利角度来看，股票似乎被吸引性地定价。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: UNDERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：被低估</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/aaea2ecf-c4c6-40d1-b0b5-d99254559a35/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/aaea2ecf-c4c6-40d1-b0b5-d99254559a35/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>NYSE:DE PE Ratio as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的纽约证券交易所：DE 市盈率</p>
</div><p>PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1447 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1447 家公司，内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长。</p>
</div><h3>Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Deere Narrative</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>提升你的决策能力：选择你的德尔叙事</h3>
</div><p>Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simply your story about a company translated into concrete numbers like future revenue, earnings, margins and a fair value estimate. A Narrative connects what you believe about Deere’s business, for example that Precision Ag subscriptions will power a sharp earnings recovery despite a cyclical downturn, to a set of financial forecasts and then to a Fair Value that you can easily compare with the current share price to decide whether to buy, hold or sell. On Simply Wall St, millions of investors use Narratives in the Community page, where they can quickly create, adjust and share these story linked valuations, and see them update dynamically when new information such as earnings or news arrives. For Deere, one bullish Narrative might assume earnings climb toward the high end of analyst expectations and support a Fair Value closer to the most optimistic price targets around $724, while a more cautious Narrative might lean toward the lower earnings band and a Fair Value nearer the most bearish target of about $460.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>早些时候我们提到有一种更好的理解估值的方法，因此让我们向你介绍叙事，这只是你对公司的故事转化为未来收入、收益、利润率和公允价值估算等具体数字。叙事将你对德尔业务的看法联系起来，例如精准农业订阅将推动收益的快速恢复，尽管面临周期性下滑，连接到一组财务预测，然后与当前股价进行比较，以决定是买入、持有还是卖出。在 Simply Wall St，数百万投资者在社区页面上使用叙事，他们可以快速创建、调整和分享这些与故事相关的估值，并在新信息（如收益或新闻）到达时动态更新。对于德尔，一个乐观的叙事可能假设收益接近分析师预期的高端，并支持接近最乐观价格目标约 724 美元的公允价值，而一个更谨慎的叙事可能倾向于较低的收益区间，公允价值接近最悲观目标约 460 美元。</p>
</div><p>Do you think there's more to the story for Deere? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你认为德尔的故事还有更多内容吗？前往我们的社区看看其他人怎么说！</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/aaea2ecf-c4c6-40d1-b0b5-d99254559a35/chart/quote-price" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/aaea2ecf-c4c6-40d1-b0b5-d99254559a35/chart/quote-price"/></p>
<p>NYSE:DE 1-Year Stock Price Chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约证券交易所：DE 1 年股票价格走势图</p>
</div><p><em>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>这篇来自 Simply Wall St 的文章具有一般性。<strong>我们仅基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，采用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不意图作为财务建议。</strong> 它不构成购买或出售任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。</em></p>
</div>

在迪尔推动精准农业技术并在五年内增长 88.5% 之后，它是否仍然具有投资价值