<p>作者：Biraajmaan Tamuly 来源：cointelegraph 翻译：Shan Ouba，金色财经</p>
<p>比特币对联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）决策的反应常常与交易者的预期相悖。今天宣布的美联储利率决定会推动比特币上涨还是引发抛售？</p>
<p>在美联储利率会议前的星期二，比特币（BTC）价格短暂突破 94,000 美元，目前价格为 90,302 美元。历史数据显示，交易者应为市场剧烈波动做好准备。</p>
<p>在 2025 年，比特币在每次美联储利率会议前后的表现揭示了一种模式：市场已经将宏观经济预期计入价格，而交易者的前瞻性布局往往掩盖了政策决策本身的实际影响。</p>
<p>关键要点</p>
<ol>
<li>历史数据显示，比特币在大多数美联储利率会议后下跌，包括在降息周期中。</li>
<li>在美联储利率会议前，比特币出现了大量资金流入和杠杆头寸的积累，导致现货流动性紧缩，从而在美联储决策公布后加剧了价格波动。</li>
</ol>
<h2>美联储利率会议结果揭示独特的比特币价格模式</h2>
<p>在 2025 年的七次美联储利率会议后，比特币的价格走势表现出明显的模式：市场提前定价，会议后的价格波动剧烈，通常以下跌结束。</p>
<p>以下是每次会议后七天内比特币价格的变化：1 月 29 日，利率不变：下跌 4.58%；3 月 19 日，利率不变：上涨 5.11%；5 月 7 日，利率不变：上涨 6.92%；6 月 18 日，利率不变：上涨 1.48%；7 月 30 日，利率不变：下跌 3.15%；9 月 17 日，降息 25 个基点：下跌 6.90%；10 月 29 日，降息 25 个基点：下跌 8.00%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7420506_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="299" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7420506_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>2025 年美联储利率会议后七天内比特币价格变化数据。数据来源：Cointelegraph/TradingView</p>
<p>七次会议后比特币的七天回报率从上涨 6.9% 到下跌 8% 不等，降息会议后的表现最为疲弱。跳出宏观经济新闻，从市场结构的角度分析，这种趋势的分歧变得更加明显。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7420506_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="299" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7420506_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>比特币在七次会议后的七天回报率范围从上涨 6.9% 到下跌 8%，降息会议后的表现最为疲弱。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7420509_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="331" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7420509_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>不同时间段未实现盈亏分布的数据来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>市场已经将 “鸽派政策带来的上行潜力” 计入价格，导致在美联储利率会议声明发布后，比特币严重缺乏边际买入力量。</p>
<p>市场已经将 “鸽派政策带来的上行潜力” 计入价格，这导致在美联储利率会议声明发布后，比特币严重缺乏边际买入力量。</p>
<p>...</p>
<p><strong>2. 降息引发最大幅度下跌</strong></p>
<p>在九月和十月宣布两次降息 25 个基点后，比特币在七天内分别下跌 6.9% 和 8%。事实上，美联储的宽松周期已经通过会议前的资金流入和激进的多头头寸被提前定价。因此，当降息决定正式实施时，市场不仅未能获得支撑，反而暴露出其脆弱性。</p>
<p><strong>3. 预先定价引发的波动突显市场脆弱性而非稳定性</strong></p>
<p>当政策结果的确定性极高时，市场波动将在会议前缩小，并在会议后立即扩大——因为交易者会根据政策实施的明确信号减少头寸，从而导致可预测的短期市场失调。</p>
<p>加密货币分析师 Ardi 预测此次会议后会出现类似的市场走势，他在分析中写道：“历史价格走势的引力效应将在明天显现。如果这一走势遵循平均下跌（约 8%），比特币可能会回落至 88,000 美元的支撑位，然后可能继续其上升趋势。” 总体而言，数据表明，美联储的利率会议并不是单向比特币价格走势的催化剂，而是市场重置的一个节点。即使利率决定偏向鸽派，之前过度扩张的头寸也可能在此期间被清算。</p>

<p>美联储在 2025 年的利率会议显示，比特币价格在会议后通常会下跌，尽管会议前资金流入和杠杆头寸增加。历史数据表明，比特币的价格波动性在这些会议后会加剧，尤其是在降息后出现最大幅度的下跌。市场往往会提前定价宏观经济预期，导致公告后缺乏边际购买力。分析师预测在当前会议后会出现类似的波动，暗示比特币可能会跌至 88,000 美元，然后再可能上涨</p>

<p>Author: Biraajmaan Tamuly Source: cointelegraph Translation: Shan Ouba, Jinse Finance</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Biraajmaan Tamuly 来源：cointelegraph 翻译：Shan Ouba，金色财经</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin's reaction to Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions often contradicts traders' expectations. Will the Fed's interest rate decision announced today boost Bitcoin or trigger a sell-off?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币对联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）决策的反应常常与交易者的预期相悖。今天宣布的美联储利率决定会推动比特币上涨还是引发抛售？</p>
</div><p>On Tuesday, the day before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) briefly broke through the $94,000 mark, currently priced at $90,302. Historical data shows that traders should be prepared for sharp market fluctuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美联储利率会议前的星期二，比特币（BTC）价格短暂突破 94,000 美元，目前价格为 90,302 美元。历史数据显示，交易者应为市场剧烈波动做好准备。</p>
</div><p>Throughout 2025, Bitcoin's performance before and after each Fed interest rate meeting reveals a pattern: the market has already priced in macroeconomic expectations, and traders' preemptive positioning often overshadows the actual impact of the policy decision itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，比特币在每次美联储利率会议前后的表现揭示了一种模式：市场已经将宏观经济预期计入价格，而交易者的前瞻性布局往往掩盖了政策决策本身的实际影响。</p>
</div><p>Key Takeaways</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键要点</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Historical data shows that Bitcoin has fallen after most Federal Reserve interest rate meetings, including during interest rate cut cycles.</li>
<li>Significant inflows of funds into Bitcoin and the accumulation of leveraged positions both occurred before the Federal Reserve interest rate meetings, leading to a tightening of spot liquidity and thus amplifying price volatility after the Fed's decision was announced.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>历史数据显示，比特币在大多数美联储利率会议后下跌，包括在降息周期中。</li>
<li>在美联储利率会议前，比特币出现了大量资金流入和杠杆头寸的积累，导致现货流动性紧缩，从而在美联储决策公布后加剧了价格波动。</li>
</ol>
</div><h2>Fed Interest Rate Meeting Results Reveal Unique Bitcoin Price Patterns</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美联储利率会议结果揭示独特的比特币价格模式</h2>
</div><p>After the seven Federal Reserve interest rate meetings in 2025, Bitcoin's price movement exhibited a clear pattern: the market pre-priced in the price, and the price movement after the meeting was volatile, often ending in a decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年的七次美联储利率会议后，比特币的价格走势表现出明显的模式：市场提前定价，会议后的价格波动剧烈，通常以下跌结束。</p>
</div><p>Here are the Bitcoin price changes within seven days after each meeting: January 29th, interest rates unchanged: down 4.58% March 19th, interest rates unchanged: up 5.11% May 7th, interest rates unchanged: up 6.92% June 18th, interest rates unchanged: up 1.48% July 30th, interest rates unchanged: down 3.15% September 17th, interest rate cut by 25 basis points: down 6.90% October 29th, 25 basis point rate cut: down 8.00%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是每次会议后七天内比特币价格的变化：1 月 29 日，利率不变：下跌 4.58%；3 月 19 日，利率不变：上涨 5.11%；5 月 7 日，利率不变：上涨 6.92%；6 月 18 日，利率不变：上涨 1.48%；7 月 30 日，利率不变：下跌 3.15%；9 月 17 日，降息 25 个基点：下跌 6.90%；10 月 29 日，降息 25 个基点：下跌 8.00%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7420506_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7420506_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>Bitcoin price change data in the seven days following the 2025 Fed rate meeting. Data source: Cointelegraph/TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年美联储利率会议后七天内比特币价格变化数据。数据来源：Cointelegraph/TradingView</p>
</div><p>The seven-day return rate of Bitcoin after seven meetings ranges from an increase of 6.9% to a decrease of 8%, with the weakest performance following the rate cut meeting. Stepping outside the macroeconomic news and analyzing from the perspective of market structure, this divergence in trends becomes even clearer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>七次会议后比特币的七天回报率从上涨 6.9% 到下跌 8% 不等，降息会议后的表现最为疲弱。跳出宏观经济新闻，从市场结构的角度分析，这种趋势的分歧变得更加明显。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7420506_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7420506_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>Bitcoin's seven-day return rate after seven meetings ranges from an increase of 6.9% to a decrease of 8%, with the weakest performance following the rate cut meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币在七次会议后的七天回报率范围从上涨 6.9% 到下跌 8%，降息会议后的表现最为疲弱。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7420509_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7420509_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>Data source for unrealized profit and loss distribution across different periods: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不同时间段未实现盈亏分布的数据来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>The market had already factored in the &#34;upside potential brought by dovish policies&#34; into the price, resulting in a severe lack of marginal buying power for Bitcoin after the release of the Fed's interest rate meeting statement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场已经将 “鸽派政策带来的上行潜力” 计入价格，导致在美联储利率会议声明发布后，比特币严重缺乏边际买入力量。</p>
</div><p>The market had already factored in the &#34;upside potential brought by dovish policies&#34; into the price, which led to a severe lack of marginal buying power for Bitcoin after the release of the Fed's interest rate meeting statement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场已经将 “鸽派政策带来的上行潜力” 计入价格，这导致在美联储利率会议声明发布后，比特币严重缺乏边际买入力量。</p>
</div><p>...</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>...</p>
</div><p><strong>2. Interest Rate Cuts Trigger the Largest Decline</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>2. 降息引发最大幅度下跌</strong></p>
</div><p>Following the announcement of the two 25 basis point interest rate cuts in September and October, Bitcoin fell by 6.9% and 8% respectively within a seven-day period. In fact, the Fed's easing cycle had already been priced in through pre-meeting fund inflows and aggressive long positions. Therefore, when the interest rate cut decisions were officially implemented, the market not only failed to gain support but also exposed its fragility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在九月和十月宣布两次降息 25 个基点后，比特币在七天内分别下跌 6.9% 和 8%。事实上，美联储的宽松周期已经通过会议前的资金流入和激进的多头头寸被提前定价。因此，当降息决定正式实施时，市场不仅未能获得支撑，反而暴露出其脆弱性。</p>
</div><p><strong>3. Volatility Caused by Pre-Pricing Highlights Market Fragility Rather Than Stability</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>3. 预先定价引发的波动突显市场脆弱性而非稳定性</strong></p>
</div><p>When the certainty of the policy outcome is extremely high, market volatility will narrow before the meeting and immediately expand after the meeting—because traders will reduce their positions based on the clear signal of the policy implementation, thus causing predictable short-term market misalignment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当政策结果的确定性极高时，市场波动将在会议前缩小，并在会议后立即扩大——因为交易者会根据政策实施的明确信号减少头寸，从而导致可预测的短期市场失调。</p>
</div><p>Cryptocurrency analyst Ardi predicts a similar market movement after this meeting, writing in his analysis: &#34;The gravitational effect of historical price action will become apparent tomorrow. If this movement follows the average decline (approximately 8%), Bitcoin may fall back to the $88,000 support level before potentially continuing its upward trend.&#34; Overall, the data suggests that the Fed's interest rate meeting is not a catalyst for one-way Bitcoin price movements, but rather a market reset point. Even if the interest rate decision leans dovish, previously overextended positions may be liquidated during this period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加密货币分析师 Ardi 预测此次会议后会出现类似的市场走势，他在分析中写道：“历史价格走势的引力效应将在明天显现。如果这一走势遵循平均下跌（约 8%），比特币可能会回落至 88,000 美元的支撑位，然后可能继续其上升趋势。” 总体而言，数据表明，美联储的利率会议并不是单向比特币价格走势的催化剂，而是市场重置的一个节点。即使利率决定偏向鸽派，之前过度扩张的头寸也可能在此期间被清算。</p>
</div>

美联储的利率会议释放了哪些信号可能影响比特币价格？