<p>迪拉德百货（Dillard's，DDS）的股票在今年悄然上涨，最新的涨幅让投资者开始质疑传统百货商店是否真的能证明这种溢价估值的合理性。</p>
<p>查看我们对迪拉德百货的最新分析。</p>
<p>目前股价约为 730.73 美元，经过一个月近 20% 的股价回报和接近 70% 的年度总股东回报，势头看起来依然强劲，投资者重新评估这家不断超出预期的传统零售商的风险。</p>
<p>如果迪拉德百货的激增让你重新思考什么才算是一个有吸引力的投资机会，那么值得探索其他零售品牌以及使用高内部持股的快速增长股票。</p>
<p>然而，随着收入几乎没有增长，盈利下滑，股价远高于华尔街目标，投资者面临两难：迪拉德百货是否仍然提供上涨空间，还是市场已经在押注未来几年的增长？</p>
<h2>19.6 倍的市盈率：这合理吗？</h2>
<p>迪拉德百货的市盈率为 19.6 倍，这一水平在其自身基本面和估计的公允价值面前显得有些紧张。</p>
<p>市盈率比较了投资者今天为每一美元当前盈利支付的价格。这是评估像迪拉德百货这样的成熟、盈利零售商的核心视角。预计未来三年盈利将平均下降 2.7%，高市盈率表明市场在为稳定、资本回报和品牌韧性而支付，而非增长，这种乐观情绪已经将股价推高至分析师目标和我们 519.86 美元的折现现金流公允价值之上。</p>
<p>在这种背景下，迪拉德百货 19.6 倍的市盈率在其自身公允市盈率估计的 14 倍面前显得昂贵。我们的公允比率分析暗示市场最终可能会向这一水平靠拢。然而，与全球多元零售行业平均的 19.9 倍和同行平均的 20.9 倍相比，迪拉德百货的交易价格略有折扣，表明投资者在此次反弹后对其盈利的定价比许多竞争对手更为保守。</p>
<p>探索迪拉德百货的 SWS 公允比率</p>
<p><strong>结果：19.6 倍的市盈率（被高估）</strong></p>
<p>然而，投资者仍面临关键风险，包括盈利放缓和股票交易远高于分析师和内在价值估计，这使得市场情绪变得脆弱。</p>
<p>了解影响迪拉德百货叙述的关键风险。</p>
<h2>价值的另一种视角</h2>
<p>虽然当前的市盈率相对于迪拉德百货 14 倍的公允比率显得偏高，但仍略低于全球多元零售平均的 19.9 倍和同行的 20.9 倍，这表明市场的乐观情绪并没有表面上看起来那么极端。</p>
<p>查看数字对这一价格的看法——在我们的估值分析中了解更多。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b453eba7-3447-4588-af0b-48395a7daada/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b453eba7-3447-4588-af0b-48395a7daada/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的纽约证券交易所：DDS 市盈率</p>
<p>Simply Wall St 每天对全球每只股票进行折现现金流（DCF）分析（例如查看迪拉德百货）。我们展示了完整的计算过程。您可以在您的观察列表或投资组合中跟踪结果，并在变化时收到提醒，或者使用我们的股票筛选器发现 907 只基于现金流的被低估股票。如果您保存筛选器，我们甚至会在新公司匹配时提醒您——这样您就不会错过潜在机会。</p>
<h2>构建您自己的迪拉德百货叙述</h2>
<p>如果您更愿意自己深入数字并挑战这些结论，您可以在几分钟内形成个性化的观点，按照您的方式进行。</p>
<p>您对迪拉德百货研究的一个很好的起点是我们的分析，强调 1 个关键奖励和 2 个重要警示信号，这可能会影响您的投资决策。</p>
<h2>准备好进行下一个投资动作了吗？</h2>
<p>如果您只停留在迪拉德百货，您可能会错过其他地方的有吸引力的机会。使用 Simply Wall Street 筛选器发现与您的策略相符的目标投资想法。</p>
<ul>
<li>通过关注这 12 只收益率超过 3% 的股息股票，捕捉潜在的长期复利，这可能会随着分红的增长而稳步提升您的收入。</li>
<li>探索医疗领域的创新，这 30 只医疗 AI 股票可能在诊断和治疗方面的进展提供对医疗行业的差异化曝光。</li>
<li>通过这 81 只加密货币和区块链股票在不断发展的数字领域中占据一席之地，目标是那些在区块链和去中心化金融上构建现实世界应用的企业。</li>
</ul>
<p><em>本文由 Simply Wall St 撰写，内容具有一般性。<strong>我们基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，仅使用无偏见的方法，我们的文章不应被视为财务建议。</strong> 这并不构成买卖任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在任何提到的股票中没有持仓。</em></p>

狄乐百货

<p>Dillard's (DDS) 的股票在一个月内上涨了 20%，一年内上涨了 70%，引发了对其高估值的质疑。尽管其市盈率为 19.6 倍，超过了其合理估值，但其交易价格略低于行业平均水平。投资者面临着盈利放缓和股票价格超过分析师目标的风险。文章建议探索其他零售和成长型股票，强调个性化投资策略的重要性</p>

<p>Dillard's (DDS) shares have quietly powered higher this year, and the latest leg of the rally has investors asking whether a traditional department store can really justify this kind of premium valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迪拉德百货（Dillard's，DDS）的股票在今年悄然上涨，最新的涨幅让投资者开始质疑传统百货商店是否真的能证明这种溢价估值的合理性。</p>
</div><p>See our latest analysis for Dillard's.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看我们对迪拉德百货的最新分析。</p>
</div><p>With the share price now around $730.73 after a 1 month share price return of nearly 20 percent and a 1 year total shareholder return close to 70 percent, momentum looks firmly intact as investors reassess the risks around a legacy retailer that keeps defying expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前股价约为 730.73 美元，经过一个月近 20% 的股价回报和接近 70% 的年度总股东回报，势头看起来依然强劲，投资者重新评估这家不断超出预期的传统零售商的风险。</p>
</div><p>If Dillard's surge has you rethinking what qualifies as a compelling opportunity, it is worth exploring other retail names and beyond using fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果迪拉德百货的激增让你重新思考什么才算是一个有吸引力的投资机会，那么值得探索其他零售品牌以及使用高内部持股的快速增长股票。</p>
</div><p>Yet with revenue barely growing, earnings slipping, and the share price now well above Wall Street targets, investors face a dilemma: does Dillard's still offer upside from here, or is the market already banking on years of future growth?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，随着收入几乎没有增长，盈利下滑，股价远高于华尔街目标，投资者面临两难：迪拉德百货是否仍然提供上涨空间，还是市场已经在押注未来几年的增长？</p>
</div><h2>Price-to-Earnings of 19.6x: Is it justified?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>19.6 倍的市盈率：这合理吗？</h2>
</div><p>Dillard's is trading on a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 times, a level that looks stretched against both its own fundamentals and its estimated fair valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迪拉德百货的市盈率为 19.6 倍，这一水平在其自身基本面和估计的公允价值面前显得有些紧张。</p>
</div><p>The price to earnings multiple compares what investors are paying today for each dollar of current earnings. It is a core lens for mature, profitable retailers like Dillard's. With earnings forecast to decline by an average of 2.7 percent per year over the next three years, a rich multiple suggests the market is paying up for stability, capital returns and brand resilience rather than growth, and that optimism has already pushed the shares well above both analyst targets and our DCF fair value of 519.86 dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率比较了投资者今天为每一美元当前盈利支付的价格。这是评估像迪拉德百货这样的成熟、盈利零售商的核心视角。预计未来三年盈利将平均下降 2.7%，高市盈率表明市场在为稳定、资本回报和品牌韧性而支付，而非增长，这种乐观情绪已经将股价推高至分析师目标和我们 519.86 美元的折现现金流公允价值之上。</p>
</div><p>Against this backdrop, Dillard's 19.6 times earnings looks expensive when set beside its own fair price to earnings estimate of 14 times. Our fair ratio work implies the market could ultimately gravitate toward this level. Yet versus the broader Global Multiline Retail industry average of 19.9 times and a peer group average of 20.9 times, Dillard's trades at a slight discount, suggesting investors are pricing its earnings more conservatively than many rivals even after the rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，迪拉德百货 19.6 倍的市盈率在其自身公允市盈率估计的 14 倍面前显得昂贵。我们的公允比率分析暗示市场最终可能会向这一水平靠拢。然而，与全球多元零售行业平均的 19.9 倍和同行平均的 20.9 倍相比，迪拉德百货的交易价格略有折扣，表明投资者在此次反弹后对其盈利的定价比许多竞争对手更为保守。</p>
</div><p>Explore the SWS fair ratio for Dillard's</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>探索迪拉德百货的 SWS 公允比率</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: Price-to-Earnings of 19.6x (OVERVALUED)</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：19.6 倍的市盈率（被高估）</strong></p>
</div><p>However, investors still face key risks, including slowing earnings and the stock trading well above analyst and intrinsic value estimates, which leaves sentiment vulnerable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投资者仍面临关键风险，包括盈利放缓和股票交易远高于分析师和内在价值估计，这使得市场情绪变得脆弱。</p>
</div><p>Find out about the key risks to this Dillard's narrative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解影响迪拉德百货叙述的关键风险。</p>
</div><h2>Another View on Value</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>价值的另一种视角</h2>
</div><p>While the current price to earnings ratio looks rich versus Dillard's fair ratio of 14 times, it still sits slightly below the Global Multiline Retail average of 19.9 times and peers at 20.9 times, suggesting less extreme optimism than the headline premium might imply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然当前的市盈率相对于迪拉德百货 14 倍的公允比率显得偏高，但仍略低于全球多元零售平均的 19.9 倍和同行的 20.9 倍，这表明市场的乐观情绪并没有表面上看起来那么极端。</p>
</div><p>See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看数字对这一价格的看法——在我们的估值分析中了解更多。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b453eba7-3447-4588-af0b-48395a7daada/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/b453eba7-3447-4588-af0b-48395a7daada/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>NYSE:DDS PE Ratio as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的纽约证券交易所：DDS 市盈率</p>
</div><p>Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Dillard's for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 907 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Simply Wall St 每天对全球每只股票进行折现现金流（DCF）分析（例如查看迪拉德百货）。我们展示了完整的计算过程。您可以在您的观察列表或投资组合中跟踪结果，并在变化时收到提醒，或者使用我们的股票筛选器发现 907 只基于现金流的被低估股票。如果您保存筛选器，我们甚至会在新公司匹配时提醒您——这样您就不会错过潜在机会。</p>
</div><h2>Build Your Own Dillard's Narrative</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>构建您自己的迪拉德百货叙述</h2>
</div><p>If you would rather dig into the numbers yourself and challenge these conclusions, you can shape a personalised view in just a few minutes, Do it your way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果您更愿意自己深入数字并挑战这些结论，您可以在几分钟内形成个性化的观点，按照您的方式进行。</p>
</div><p>A great starting point for your Dillard's research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>您对迪拉德百货研究的一个很好的起点是我们的分析，强调 1 个关键奖励和 2 个重要警示信号，这可能会影响您的投资决策。</p>
</div><h2>Ready for your next investing move?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>准备好进行下一个投资动作了吗？</h2>
</div><p>If you stop at Dillard's, you could miss compelling opportunities elsewhere. Use the Simply Wall Street Screener to uncover targeted ideas aligned with your strategy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果您只停留在迪拉德百货，您可能会错过其他地方的有吸引力的机会。使用 Simply Wall Street 筛选器发现与您的策略相符的目标投资想法。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Capture potential long term compounding by focusing on these 12 dividend stocks with yields &gt; 3%, which may steadily boost your income as payouts grow over time.</li>
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</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>通过关注这 12 只收益率超过 3% 的股息股票，捕捉潜在的长期复利，这可能会随着分红的增长而稳步提升您的收入。</li>
<li>探索医疗领域的创新，这 30 只医疗 AI 股票可能在诊断和治疗方面的进展提供对医疗行业的差异化曝光。</li>
<li>通过这 81 只加密货币和区块链股票在不断发展的数字领域中占据一席之地，目标是那些在区块链和去中心化金融上构建现实世界应用的企业。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>本文由 Simply Wall St 撰写，内容具有一般性。<strong>我们基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，仅使用无偏见的方法，我们的文章不应被视为财务建议。</strong> 这并不构成买卖任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在任何提到的股票中没有持仓。</em></p>
</div>

狄乐百货（DDS）在月度上涨 20% 和一年总回报率达到 70% 后的估值检查