<p>我们收到了一位客户的以下问题：“我参加了一个会议，他们展示了大约三分之一的现存美国政府债务将在未来几年到期。我们该如何偿还？” 大约 30 万亿美元的美国国债中，三分之一相当于明年到期的 10 万亿美元国债。因此，无论是按比例（所有债务的三分之一）还是按名义金额（10 万亿美元）来衡量，财政部的再融资任务似乎都很艰巨。然而，偿还三分之一的债务负担并不像一些危言耸听者所让公众相信的那样具有挑战性。</p>
<p>目前，投资者和美联储拥有明年到期的 10 万亿美元国债的 100%。这些投资者主要包括货币市场基金、固定收益投资者、外国国家、保险公司、个人和企业。这些投资者要么在法律上被要求持有短期国债，要么有运营需求，或者更喜欢这些国债。因此，当他们的债务明年到期时，几乎所有这些投资者都需要将收益再投资。因此，明年到期的 10 万亿美元国债将面临大约 10 万亿美元的需求。</p>
<p>毫无疑问，飙升的国债水平是一个问题。但对投资者来说，重要的是明年将发行多少新国债。此外，政府债务具有负乘数效应。简单来说，每增加一美元的债务最终会减少经济活动。因此，偿还三分之一的债务，甚至为新债务寻找买家，并不是我们主要关心的问题。我们更关心的是失控的财政支出对明天经济的影响。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/treasury-debt-oustanding-1024x683.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/treasury-debt-oustanding-1024x683.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>今天关注的事项</strong></h3>
<p><strong>收益</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><em>今天没有收益发布</em></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>经济</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-74-1024x115.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-74-1024x115.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>市场交易更新</strong></h3>
<p>在 <strong><em>昨天的</em></strong> <strong><em>报告</em></strong> 中，我们讨论了 2026 年市场中可能出现的防御性领域的机会。同时，我们开始在我们的主要模型中进行一些调整，通过进行一些税收损失收割，并增加一些更具防御性的持股，如 MO、VZ、DIV 和 AES。</p>
<p>正如昨天所讨论的，成长股相对于价值股的显著超额表现正在创造潜在机会，特别是在估值较高时。如图所示，前瞻性估值（即最乐观的估值）目前处于前瞻性五年回报预计下降的水平。通过增加高股息股票，我们可以在等待的同时获得收益，同时为我们的成长头寸增加防御性对冲。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png"/></p>
<p>虽然不能保证 2026 年会带来更低的回报，但考虑到过去三年相对于历史标准的巨大超额表现，风险正在增加。这就是为什么我们目前只增加小规模的防御性头寸，而不是进行 “全面转变”。这样的举措为我们在市场开始进行更严肃的轮换时提供了一个立足点。</p>
<p>仅供参考。</p>
<h3><strong>新房上市数量降幅创两年多以来最大</strong></h3>
<p>周四，Redfin 报告称，新房上市数量同比下降 1.7%，是两年多以来的最大降幅。由于买家需求疲软和季节性放缓，卖家们选择观望。此外，许多卖家被低抵押贷款利率所困。Redfin 还报告称，待售房屋数量同比下降 4.1%，而且房屋出售的时间更长，平均需要 51 天。高价格和抵押贷款利率，加上经济不确定性和紧张的库存，使得买家保持谨慎。</p>
<p>下表由 Redfin 提供，进一步显示了房地产市场的停滞情况。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/redfin-data.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/redfin-data.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>情绪与现实</strong></h3>
<p>下图由 Daily Shot 提供，显示了情绪与实际经济活动之间的脱节。硬数据指的是实际经济数据，如零售销售、消费者物价指数、房屋销售和失业申请。软数据则是众多消费者和商业调查，报告人们对经济的感受。</p>
<p>自从关税实施以来，情绪一直在减弱，而经济活动总体上有所扩展。例如，亚特兰大联邦储备银行对第三季度的 GDP NOW 预测接近 4%。如果实现，这将是自 2021 年以来的最佳增长率。同时，密歇根大学消费者信心调查的结果是自 1960 年研究开始以来的最低水平。</p>
<p>这种脱节不太可能持续。通常，当消费者信心或商业信心为负时，消费者或商业领袖会减少支出和投资。因此，经济活动往往会恶化。展望未来，情绪要么改善以匹配经济活动，要么经济活动追赶情绪。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/economic-surprises.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/economic-surprises.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>今日推文</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/dovish-fed.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/dovish-fed.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的内容：</em></p>
<p>鹰派还是不那么鸽派？量化宽松还是不量化宽松？</p>
<p>哈塞特将取代鲍威尔：博彩市场充满信心</p>
<p>日本是否陷入死亡螺旋？：一种逆向观点</p>

RDFN

<p>美国国债的三分之一，约 10 万亿美元，将在 2026 年到期，这带来了重大的再融资挑战。然而，预计投资者和美联储将进行再投资，以满足需求。重点应放在新债务发行以及财政支出对经济的影响上。此外，Redfin 报告由于需求疲软和高抵押贷款利率，新房上市数量显著下降，表明房地产市场停滞。经济情绪与实际活动之间存在脱节，这可能对未来的经济表现产生影响</p>

<p>We received the following question from a client: “ <em>I was at a conference where they showed that roughly a third of the currently existing US Government debt is set to mature in the next few years. How can we pay it back?”</em> A third of the approximately $30 trillion in US Treasury debt equates to $10 trillion in Treasury bonds maturing next year. Thus, whether measured as a percentage (a third of all debt) or by the notional amount ($10 trillion), the Treasury’s refunding task seems daunting. However, repaying a third of its debt load is not as challenging as some fearmongers lead the public to believe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们收到了一位客户的以下问题：“我参加了一个会议，他们展示了大约三分之一的现存美国政府债务将在未来几年到期。我们该如何偿还？” 大约 30 万亿美元的美国国债中，三分之一相当于明年到期的 10 万亿美元国债。因此，无论是按比例（所有债务的三分之一）还是按名义金额（10 万亿美元）来衡量，财政部的再融资任务似乎都很艰巨。然而，偿还三分之一的债务负担并不像一些危言耸听者所让公众相信的那样具有挑战性。</p>
</div><p>Currently, investors and the Federal Reserve own 100% of the $10 trillion of Treasury debt that will mature next year. Chiefly among these investors are money market funds, fixed-income investors, foreign countries, insurance companies, individuals, and corporations. These investors are either legally required to hold short-term Treasury notes, have an operational need for them, or prefer them. Thus, when their debt matures next year, almost all of those investors will need to reinvest the proceeds. Accordingly, the $10 trillion in Treasury notes maturing will be met with about $10 trillion worth of demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，投资者和美联储拥有明年到期的 10 万亿美元国债的 100%。这些投资者主要包括货币市场基金、固定收益投资者、外国国家、保险公司、个人和企业。这些投资者要么在法律上被要求持有短期国债，要么有运营需求，或者更喜欢这些国债。因此，当他们的债务明年到期时，几乎所有这些投资者都需要将收益再投资。因此，明年到期的 10 万亿美元国债将面临大约 10 万亿美元的需求。</p>
</div><p>Make no mistake, the soaring Treasury debt levels are a problem. But what should matter to investors is how much new Treasury debt will be issued next year. Furthermore, government debt has a negative multiplier. In simple terms, each additional dollar of debt ultimately reduces economic activity. Thus, refunding a third of the debt, or even finding buyers for the new debt, is not a primary concern of ours. What concerns us more is the impact of runaway fiscal spending on tomorrow’s economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫无疑问，飙升的国债水平是一个问题。但对投资者来说，重要的是明年将发行多少新国债。此外，政府债务具有负乘数效应。简单来说，每增加一美元的债务最终会减少经济活动。因此，偿还三分之一的债务，甚至为新债务寻找买家，并不是我们主要关心的问题。我们更关心的是失控的财政支出对明天经济的影响。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/treasury-debt-oustanding-1024x683.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/treasury-debt-oustanding-1024x683.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>What To Watch Today</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>今天关注的事项</strong></h3>
</div><p><strong>Earnings</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>收益</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><em>No earnings releases today</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>今天没有收益发布</em></li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Economy</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>经济</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-74-1024x115.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-74-1024x115.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>Market Trading Update</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>市场交易更新</strong></h3>
</div><p>In <strong><em>yesterday’s</em></strong> <strong><em>note</em></strong>, we discussed the opportunities that may present themselves in 2026 in more defensive areas of the market. At the same time, we started making a few adjustments in our primary models by doing some tax loss harvesting and adding some of these more defensive holdings like MO, VZ, DIV, and AES.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 <strong><em>昨天的</em></strong> <strong><em>报告</em></strong> 中，我们讨论了 2026 年市场中可能出现的防御性领域的机会。同时，我们开始在我们的主要模型中进行一些调整，通过进行一些税收损失收割，并增加一些更具防御性的持股，如 MO、VZ、DIV 和 AES。</p>
</div><p>As discussed yesterday, the significant outperformance of growth stocks over value is creating a potential opportunity, particularly when valuations are elevated. As shown, forward valuations <em>(which are the most optimistic)</em> are currently at levels where forward 5-year returns are expected to decline. By adding stocks with high dividends, we <em>“get paid to wait”</em> while adding a defensive hedge to our growth positions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如昨天所讨论的，成长股相对于价值股的显著超额表现正在创造潜在机会，特别是在估值较高时。如图所示，前瞻性估值（即最乐观的估值）目前处于前瞻性五年回报预计下降的水平。通过增加高股息股票，我们可以在等待的同时获得收益，同时为我们的成长头寸增加防御性对冲。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png"/></p>
<p>While there is no guarantee that 2026 will result in lower returns, given the massive outperformance to historical norms over the last 3-years, the risk is increasing. Such is why we are only adding small defensive positions currently and not making a <em>“full shift.”</em> Such actions give us a foothold to build into if, or when, the market begins to make a more serious rotation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然不能保证 2026 年会带来更低的回报，但考虑到过去三年相对于历史标准的巨大超额表现，风险正在增加。这就是为什么我们目前只增加小规模的防御性头寸，而不是进行 “全面转变”。这样的举措为我们在市场开始进行更严肃的轮换时提供了一个立足点。</p>
</div><p>Just something to consider.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仅供参考。</p>
</div><h3><strong>New Home Listing Drop By Most In Over 2 Years</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>新房上市数量降幅创两年多以来最大</strong></h3>
</div><p>On Thursday, Redfin reported that new home listings fell 1.7% year over year, the largest decline in more than two years. Sellers are holding back due to weak buyer demand and seasonal slowdown. Furthermore, many sellers are trapped with low mortgage rates. Redfin also reported that pending home sales fell 4.1% year over year and that homes are taking longer to sell, averaging 51 days. High prices and mortgage rates, along with economic uncertainty and tight inventory, are keeping buyers cautious.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四，Redfin 报告称，新房上市数量同比下降 1.7%，是两年多以来的最大降幅。由于买家需求疲软和季节性放缓，卖家们选择观望。此外，许多卖家被低抵押贷款利率所困。Redfin 还报告称，待售房屋数量同比下降 4.1%，而且房屋出售的时间更长，平均需要 51 天。高价格和抵押贷款利率，加上经济不确定性和紧张的库存，使得买家保持谨慎。</p>
</div><p>The table below, courtesy of Redfin, presents additional data further indicating the housing market’s stagnation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下表由 Redfin 提供，进一步显示了房地产市场的停滞情况。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/redfin-data.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/redfin-data.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>Sentiment vs Reality</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>情绪与现实</strong></h3>
</div><p>The graph below, courtesy of the Daily Shot, shows a disconnect between sentiment and actual economic activity. Hard data refers to actual economic data, such as retail sales, CPI, home sales, and unemployment claims. Soft data are the numerous consumer and business surveys that report on people’s feelings about the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下图由 Daily Shot 提供，显示了情绪与实际经济活动之间的脱节。硬数据指的是实际经济数据，如零售销售、消费者物价指数、房屋销售和失业申请。软数据则是众多消费者和商业调查，报告人们对经济的感受。</p>
</div><p>Since the tariffs sentiment has been weakening, while economic activity has generally expanded. For example, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP NOW forecast for the third quarter is near 4%. If realized, that would be the best growth rate since 2021. At the same time, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey is at its lowest level since the study began in 1960.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自从关税实施以来，情绪一直在减弱，而经济活动总体上有所扩展。例如，亚特兰大联邦储备银行对第三季度的 GDP NOW 预测接近 4%。如果实现，这将是自 2021 年以来的最佳增长率。同时，密歇根大学消费者信心调查的结果是自 1960 年研究开始以来的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>Such a disconnect is not likely to continue. Typically, when consumer sentiment or business sentiment is negative, consumers or business leaders cut back on spending and investment. Accordingly, economic activity tends to deteriorate. Looking ahead, either sentiment improves to match economic activity, or economic activity catches down to sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种脱节不太可能持续。通常，当消费者信心或商业信心为负时，消费者或商业领袖会减少支出和投资。因此，经济活动往往会恶化。展望未来，情绪要么改善以匹配经济活动，要么经济活动追赶情绪。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/economic-surprises.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/economic-surprises.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>Tweet of the Day</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>今日推文</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/dovish-fed.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/dovish-fed.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的内容：</em></p>
</div><p>Hawkish Or Less Dovish? QE Or Not QE?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鹰派还是不那么鸽派？量化宽松还是不量化宽松？</p>
</div><p>Hassett To Replace Powell: Betting Markets Are Confident</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>哈塞特将取代鲍威尔：博彩市场充满信心</p>
</div><p>Is Japan In A Death Spiral?: A Contrarian Take</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本是否陷入死亡螺旋？：一种逆向观点</p>
</div>

美国债务中有三分之一将在 2026 年到期