<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/krishna-ahirao-iyer/user_content/ckimages/orig_zlataky-cz-kmzbzuybwkm-unsplash%20(2).webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/krishna-ahirao-iyer/user_content/ckimages/orig_zlataky-cz-kmzbzuybwkm-unsplash%20(2).webp"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Zlaťáky.cz，来自 Unsplash</em></p>
<h3><strong>本世纪的黄金</strong></h3>
<p>下图显示了如果我们在本世纪的任何时间购买黄金会发生什么。数字有点难以阅读，但颜色（绿色）是关键：自 2000 年以来，无论何时购买黄金，投资者都获得了收益，并且收益率正在加速上升。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p>![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! fe3d!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0db1a27b-7fc4-459c-b293-60040e742350_1225x682.jpeg)</p>
<h3><strong>以任何货币…</strong></h3>
<p>购买黄金所用的货币也无关紧要。黄金在所有货币中都在上涨：</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p>![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! mu1J!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffc61e157-0ed4-4d81-872d-725442b6b10f_1318x727.jpeg)</p>
<h3><strong>对实物黄金的需求</strong></h3>
<p>在主要金属交易所，实物黄金的需求激增：</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p>![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! 4SkX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3d5fc54a-28fd-456e-989a-a9d5a37d79da_1228x697.jpeg)</p>
<h3><strong>白银表现更佳</strong></h3>
<p>还记得黄金/白银比率突破 100 时（意味着购买一盎司黄金需要超过 100 盎司白银），黄金爱好者称其为白银的强烈买入信号吗？</p>
<p>他们是对的。白银的表现超过了黄金，黄金/白银比率正在急剧下降。但它仍高于过去的平均水平，这意味着它仍然被低估，无论是相对于自身还是相对于黄金：</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p>![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! g9v4!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2061ec3b-9f62-4e6a-a044-bd780f49e65c_2667x1500.jpeg)</p>
<p>毫不奇怪，这转化为 25 年来的白银购买量大幅上升，无论何时购买或以何种价格：</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p>![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! 2cn1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0eda7c1f-6169-406f-bd5b-b502499322f9_1268x727.jpeg)</p>
<h3><strong>对实物白银的需求</strong></h3>
<p>与黄金一样，实物白银以创纪录的速度离开交易所，因为可用金属的数量在减少：</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p>![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! BA6T!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F433dc2a1-30e4-45b5-9c8c-475f4eb4a6d2_1299x692.jpeg)</p>
<h3><strong>矿工们怎么样？</strong></h3>
<p>如果金属正在从交易所消失，矿工的黄金/白银储备是否变得更有价值？是的，尤其是考虑到他们的市值相对于更广泛市场的规模是多么小。因此，继续购买高质量的矿工股票。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p>![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! o3Ri!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F70e1fec9-4b92-4a2f-8659-565395bf76d9_1305x689.jpeg)</p>
<p>Incrementum — 优质黄金/白银图表的来源 — 刚刚发布了一些新的图表，展示了这个牛市的史诗性质。以下是七个图表及其所讲述的故事：</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>明年的黑马：日元套利交易</p>
<p>黄金爱好者获胜</p>
<p>2026 年的全球货币危机？</p>

BULL

<p>这篇文章讨论了黄金和白银的持续牛市，强调自 2000 年以来，无论使用何种货币购买，这两种金属都实现了显著的涨幅。两种金属的实物需求达到了历史最高水平，白银的表现优于黄金。黄金/白银比率正在下降，但仍高于历史平均水平，表明白银仍被低估。文章还指出，矿工的储备变得更加有价值。Incrementum 发布了新的图表，展示了这一牛市</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/krishna-ahirao-iyer/user_content/ckimages/orig_zlataky-cz-kmzbzuybwkm-unsplash%20(2).webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/krishna-ahirao-iyer/user_content/ckimages/orig_zlataky-cz-kmzbzuybwkm-unsplash%20(2).webp"/></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/krishna-ahirao-iyer/user_content/ckimages/orig_zlataky-cz-kmzbzuybwkm-unsplash%20(2).webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/krishna-ahirao-iyer/user_content/ckimages/orig_zlataky-cz-kmzbzuybwkm-unsplash%20(2).webp"/></p>
</div><p><em>Photo by Zlaťáky.cz on Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Zlaťáky.cz，来自 Unsplash</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>Gold in This Century</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>本世纪的黄金</strong></h3>
</div><p>The following chart shows what would have happened if we had bought gold at nearly any time in this century. The numbers are a little hard to read, but the color (green) is what matters: No matter when someone bought gold since 2000, they’re up, and the rate of gain is accelerating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下图显示了如果我们在本世纪的任何时间购买黄金会发生什么。数字有点难以阅读，但颜色（绿色）是关键：自 2000 年以来，无论何时购买黄金，投资者都获得了收益，并且收益率正在加速上升。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fe3d!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0db1a27b-7fc4-459c-b293-60040e742350_1225x682.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fe3d!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0db1a27b-7fc4-459c-b293-60040e742350_1225x682.jpeg"/></p>
<h3><strong>In Any Currency…</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>以任何货币…</strong></h3>
</div><p>It also didn’t matter what currency we used to buy our gold. It’s up against them all:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>购买黄金所用的货币也无关紧要。黄金在所有货币中都在上涨：</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mu1J!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffc61e157-0ed4-4d81-872d-725442b6b10f_1318x727.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mu1J!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffc61e157-0ed4-4d81-872d-725442b6b10f_1318x727.jpeg"/></p>
<h3><strong>Demanding Physical Gold</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>对实物黄金的需求</strong></h3>
</div><p>On major metals exchanges, the demand for physical gold has spiked:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在主要金属交易所，实物黄金的需求激增：</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4SkX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3d5fc54a-28fd-456e-989a-a9d5a37d79da_1228x697.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4SkX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3d5fc54a-28fd-456e-989a-a9d5a37d79da_1228x697.jpeg"/></p>
<h3><strong>Silver Doing Even Better</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>白银表现更佳</strong></h3>
</div><p>Remember when the gold/silver ratio broke 100 (meaning it took more than 100 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold) and gold bugs called it a screaming buy signal for silver?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还记得黄金/白银比率突破 100 时（意味着购买一盎司黄金需要超过 100 盎司白银），黄金爱好者称其为白银的强烈买入信号吗？</p>
</div><p>They were right. Silver has been outperforming gold, and the gold/silver ratio is falling hard. BUT it remains above past averages, which means it’s still undervalued, both on its own and relative to gold:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们是对的。白银的表现超过了黄金，黄金/白银比率正在急剧下降。但它仍高于过去的平均水平，这意味着它仍然被低估，无论是相对于自身还是相对于黄金：</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g9v4!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2061ec3b-9f62-4e6a-a044-bd780f49e65c_2667x1500.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g9v4!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2061ec3b-9f62-4e6a-a044-bd780f49e65c_2667x1500.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Not surprisingly, this translates into 25 years of silver purchases being way up, no matter when it was bought or at what price:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫不奇怪，这转化为 25 年来的白银购买量大幅上升，无论何时购买或以何种价格：</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2cn1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0eda7c1f-6169-406f-bd5b-b502499322f9_1268x727.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2cn1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0eda7c1f-6169-406f-bd5b-b502499322f9_1268x727.jpeg"/></p>
<h3><strong>Demanding Physical Silver</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>对实物白银的需求</strong></h3>
</div><p>Like gold, physical silver is leaving the exchanges at record rates, as the amount of available metal dwindles:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与黄金一样，实物白银以创纪录的速度离开交易所，因为可用金属的数量在减少：</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BA6T!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F433dc2a1-30e4-45b5-9c8c-475f4eb4a6d2_1299x692.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BA6T!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F433dc2a1-30e4-45b5-9c8c-475f4eb4a6d2_1299x692.jpeg"/></p>
<h3><strong>What About the Miners?</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>矿工们怎么样？</strong></h3>
</div><p>If the metals are disappearing from exchanges, are the miners’ gold/silver reserves becoming more valuable? Yes, especially given how small their market caps are relative to the broader markets. So keep buying the high-quality miners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果金属正在从交易所消失，矿工的黄金/白银储备是否变得更有价值？是的，尤其是考虑到他们的市值相对于更广泛市场的规模是多么小。因此，继续购买高质量的矿工股票。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o3Ri!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F70e1fec9-4b92-4a2f-8659-565395bf76d9_1305x689.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o3Ri!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F70e1fec9-4b92-4a2f-8659-565395bf76d9_1305x689.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Incrementum — source of great gold/silver charts — just posted some new ones that illustrate the epic nature of this bull market. Here are seven, and the stories they tell:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Incrementum — 优质黄金/白银图表的来源 — 刚刚发布了一些新的图表，展示了这个牛市的史诗性质。以下是七个图表及其所讲述的故事：</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Next Year's Wild Card: The Yen Carry Trade</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>明年的黑马：日元套利交易</p>
</div><p>Gold Bugs Win</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金爱好者获胜</p>
</div><p>A Global Currency Crisis In 2026?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年的全球货币危机？</p>
</div>

黄金/白银牛市：七张图表解析