<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/flagged/photo-1558954157-aa76c0d246c6/query-aXhpZD1leUpoY0hCZmFXUWlPakV5TURkOSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/flagged/photo-1558954157-aa76c0d246c6/query-aXhpZD1leUpoY0hCZmFXUWlPakV5TURkOSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
<p>截至撰写时，标准普尔 500 指数年初至今已上涨约 17%。如果在接下来的几周内出现 “圣诞老人反弹”，该指数可能会以 20% 的年回报率收盘。如果那样的话，这将是连续第三年年回报率达到 20% 或以上。</p>
<p>尽管有各种担忧和投资者在几个月中关注的叙述，但最终，这又是一个市场表现出色的年份。但这并不意味着每只股票的表现都很好。</p>
<p>在我们密切关注的商业房地产领域，明显有赢家和输家。今天，我们将更仔细地看看哪些物业领域在 2025 年表现最佳，哪些则未能达到预期。我们将首先从一个输家开始。</p>
<h3><strong>输家：生命科学</strong></h3>
<p>今年，生命科学领域几乎是最糟糕的物业领域。这些实验室设施通常由制药和生物技术公司租赁，正面临着我职业生涯中见过的最严重的供需失衡之一。</p>
<p>你可能还记得在最近的一篇文章中，我提到 COVID-19 时代为生命科学创造了一种土地争夺战。似乎每个制药或生物技术公司都投入资源开发潜在的 COVID-19 治疗方案。</p>
<p>传递给开发商的信息是要建造更多的设施——更多的设施。而他们确实这样做了。但随后，生命科学物业总是会发生的事情发生了。他们过度建设了。</p>
<p>随着 COVID-19 的紧迫性在随后的几年中减退，以及利率上升减缓了对生物技术的风险投资，这种过剩的供应与较弱的需求正面交锋。</p>
<p>结果是，生命科学在 2025 年变得有些混乱。即使是像亚历山大房地产（ARE）这样的优秀公司也受到了影响。截至撰写时，该股票年内下跌约 50%。</p>
<p>这并不一定是亚历山大管理层的错。毕竟，他们能做的事情来缓解这些市场条件是有限的。但这确实意味着这一物业领域在整体上今年一直是一个资金黑洞。</p>
<p>不过，随着我们进入明年，这种情况可能会改变。市场总是适应变化。如果明年生命科学领域出现转机，宽护城河研究的读者将第一时间得知。</p>
<h3><strong>输家：冷藏</strong></h3>
<p>另一个挣扎的领域是冷藏——这些大型气候控制仓库在食品上架之前储存食品。没过多久，这些企业就受到房地产投资信托（“REIT”）投资者的喜爱。</p>
<p>在封锁的那些年里，人们被困在家中。因此，他们自己准备餐食。所有这些食物必须在被购买之前储存起来。而在 Americold Realty Trust（COLD）和 Lineage（LINE）拥有的设施中，很多食物最终被储存在那里。但与生命科学类似，这种新需求并不是永久的。世界恢复了正常。冷藏设施也失宠了。</p>
<p>Americold 的管理层还提到通货膨胀、消费者疲软和政府福利减少是另一个逆风。Americold 和 Lineage 年内分别下跌约 38% 和 34%。</p>
<p>但同样像生命科学一样，这里也可能出现转机。这些设施的需求并不会消失。毕竟，人人都需要吃饭。我们将密切关注这一领域，看看它的运势是否能在 2026 年扭转。</p>
<h3><strong>赢家：三网租赁</strong></h3>
<p>我的读者可能会说我认为三网租赁 REIT 总是赢家。毕竟，这些企业将拥有物业的所有费用——税收、保险、维护——转嫁给租户。而且由于这些租户通常是高质量的，租期较长且内置租金递增条款——所有 REIT 真正需要做的就是收支票。</p>
<p>但我在三网租赁领域看到的一个有趣发展是，这些公司越来越多地充当私募股权或传统银行的替代品。</p>
<p>今年，我们看到销售回租交易激增。正如长期读者所知，这是一种企业将物业出售给 REIT 后立即租回的方式。但很少有人理解，这实际上只是一种融资形式。在利率仍然较高的情况下，这类交易的数量增加了。</p>
<p>事实上，截至第三季度，这些交易的交易量比 2024 年增长了 23%。第三季度的交易量是 10 年来的第二高总量。今年的赢家之一就是市场上最大的三网租赁 REIT——Realty Income（O）。截至撰写时，该股票年内回报约为 13%。在今年的高峰期，该总回报约为 20%。</p>
<p>如果利率在 2026 年继续下降，像 Realty Income 这样的 REIT——具有巨大的规模和资本成本优势——将表现并超越市场。</p>
<h3><strong>赢家：医疗保健</strong></h3>
<p>医疗保健在 2025 年表现突出。毫无疑问。</p>
<p>作为证据，只需看看 Welltower（WELL）。该公司拥有一系列老年生活设施。该股票年内回报约为 52%。这不仅大幅超过标准普尔 500 指数，而且几乎是 Nvidia 回报的两倍。</p>
<p>医疗保健的看涨理由很简单——美国的婴儿潮一代（共 7640 万人）正在变老。事实上，2025 年被认为是 “65 岁高峰年”，即创纪录数量的人们达到了这个关键年龄。</p>
<p>虽然 2025 年可能会成为高峰，但这一趋势不会消失。未来每年都会有数百万美国人步入退休年龄。随着他们的退休，他们将更多地使用医疗保健和长期护理设施。这一 “银色海啸” 趋势具有持续性，预计将为医疗保健房地产投资信托基金（REITs）提供多年的顺风。</p>
<p>我在这个领域继续看好的一个名字是 Healthpeak Properties（DOC）。尽管该股票今年下跌了约 12%，但它仍然拥有令人印象深刻的医疗和老年生活设施组合。它的估值也很便宜，股息收益率约为 6.7%。</p>
<p>预计 Healthpeak 和其他医疗保健 REITs 在未来几年将面临更高的需求。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>终于发生了</p>
<p>‘拥有市场’ 的神话</p>
<p>买入警报：6 只接近 52 周低点的股息股票</p>

COLD

<p>在 2025 年，标准普尔 500 指数表现强劲，但并非所有房地产投资信托（REIT）行业都蓬勃发展。生命科学和冷藏存储行业由于过度建设和需求变化而面临困境，像亚历山大房地产（Alexandria Real Estate）和 Americold Realty Trust 这样的股票出现了显著下跌。相反，像房地产收入（Realty Income）这样的三重净租赁 REIT 则受益于销售 - 回租交易的增加，成为高利率下的融资替代方案。该行业成为赢家，展现了在市场中的韧性和适应能力</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/flagged/photo-1558954157-aa76c0d246c6/query-aXhpZD1leUpoY0hCZmFXUWlPakV5TURkOSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/flagged/photo-1558954157-aa76c0d246c6?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&amp;ixid=eyJhcHBfaWQiOjEyMDd9&amp;w=1000&amp;q=80"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
</div><p>As of the time of writing, the S&amp;P 500 has delivered about 17% year-to-date. In the event of a “Santa Claus rally” in the next few weeks, the index could potentially close with a 20% return on the year. If that were to happen, it would be the third year in a row with an annual return of 20% or more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至撰写时，标准普尔 500 指数年初至今已上涨约 17%。如果在接下来的几周内出现 “圣诞老人反弹”，该指数可能会以 20% 的年回报率收盘。如果那样的话，这将是连续第三年年回报率达到 20% 或以上。</p>
</div><p>For all the worries, for all the narratives investors latched on to over the months, in the end, it was a wonderful year for markets once again. But that doesn’t mean it was wonderful for every stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管有各种担忧和投资者在几个月中关注的叙述，但最终，这又是一个市场表现出色的年份。但这并不意味着每只股票的表现都很好。</p>
</div><p>And in the commercial real estate sectors that we follow so closely, there were clear winners and losers. Today, we’ll have a closer look at which property sectors made the most of 2025, and which fell short. And we’ll start with a loser first.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我们密切关注的商业房地产领域，明显有赢家和输家。今天，我们将更仔细地看看哪些物业领域在 2025 年表现最佳，哪些则未能达到预期。我们将首先从一个输家开始。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Loser: Life Sciences</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>输家：生命科学</strong></h3>
</div><p>You’d be hard-pressed to find a more miserable property sector than life sciences this year. These lab facilities – typically leased by pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies – have been dealing with one of the worst supply/demand imbalances I’ve seen in my career.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年，生命科学领域几乎是最糟糕的物业领域。这些实验室设施通常由制药和生物技术公司租赁，正面临着我职业生涯中见过的最严重的供需失衡之一。</p>
</div><p>You’ll remember from a recent article how I showed that the COVID-19 era created something of a land rush for life sciences. Every pharma or biotech company, it seemed, poured resources into potential COVID-19 treatments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可能还记得在最近的一篇文章中，我提到 COVID-19 时代为生命科学创造了一种土地争夺战。似乎每个制药或生物技术公司都投入资源开发潜在的 COVID-19 治疗方案。</p>
</div><p>The message that was sent to developers was to build more facilities – much more. And that’s exactly what they did. But then, the thing that always happens in these situations happened to life sciences properties. They overbuilt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>传递给开发商的信息是要建造更多的设施——更多的设施。而他们确实这样做了。但随后，生命科学物业总是会发生的事情发生了。他们过度建设了。</p>
</div><p>And as the urgency around COVID-19 receded in the years that followed – and as rising rates slowed venture capital investment into biotech – that overwhelming supply ran headfirst into weaker demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 COVID-19 的紧迫性在随后的几年中减退，以及利率上升减缓了对生物技术的风险投资，这种过剩的供应与较弱的需求正面交锋。</p>
</div><p>The result is that life sciences has been something of a mess in 2025. And it has taken its toll on even great companies like Alexandria Real Estate (ARE). That stock is down about 50% on the year as of the time of writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结果是，生命科学在 2025 年变得有些混乱。即使是像亚历山大房地产（ARE）这样的优秀公司也受到了影响。截至撰写时，该股票年内下跌约 50%。</p>
</div><p>That’s not necessarily the fault of Alexandria’s management. After all, there’s only so much they can do to mitigate these market conditions. But it does mean that this property sector has – in general – been a money pit all year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不一定是亚历山大管理层的错。毕竟，他们能做的事情来缓解这些市场条件是有限的。但这确实意味着这一物业领域在整体上今年一直是一个资金黑洞。</p>
</div><p>Now, that might change as we go forward into next year. Markets are nothing if not adaptable. And if we do see a turnaround take shape in life sciences next year, rest assured that readers of Wide Moat Research will be the first to know.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，随着我们进入明年，这种情况可能会改变。市场总是适应变化。如果明年生命科学领域出现转机，宽护城河研究的读者将第一时间得知。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Loser: Cold Storage</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>输家：冷藏</strong></h3>
</div><p>Another sector that has struggled is cold storage – the warehouse-sized, climate-controlled buildings that store food before it ends up on grocery-store shelves. It wasn’t that long ago that these businesses were adored by real estate investment trusts (“REIT”) investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个挣扎的领域是冷藏——这些大型气候控制仓库在食品上架之前储存食品。没过多久，这些企业就受到房地产投资信托（“REIT”）投资者的喜爱。</p>
</div><p>During the lockdown years, people were stuck at home. So, they prepared their own meals. All that food had to be stored somewhere before being bought. And in facilities owned by Americold Realty Trust (COLD) and Lineage (LINE) is where a lot of it ended up. But, similar to life sciences, that new demand wasn’t permanent. The world got back to business. And cold-storage facilities fell from grace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在封锁的那些年里，人们被困在家中。因此，他们自己准备餐食。所有这些食物必须在被购买之前储存起来。而在 Americold Realty Trust（COLD）和 Lineage（LINE）拥有的设施中，很多食物最终被储存在那里。但与生命科学类似，这种新需求并不是永久的。世界恢复了正常。冷藏设施也失宠了。</p>
</div><p>Management from Americold also called out inflation, a weaker consumer, and a reduction of government benefits as another headwind. Americold and Lineage are down about 38% and 34%, respectively, on the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Americold 的管理层还提到通货膨胀、消费者疲软和政府福利减少是另一个逆风。Americold 和 Lineage 年内分别下跌约 38% 和 34%。</p>
</div><p>But, also like life sciences, there could be a turnaround story here. Demand for these facilities isn’t going away. After all, everybody has to eat. We’ll keep a close eye on this sector and see if its fortune can turn in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但同样像生命科学一样，这里也可能出现转机。这些设施的需求并不会消失。毕竟，人人都需要吃饭。我们将密切关注这一领域，看看它的运势是否能在 2026 年扭转。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Winner: Triple-Net</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>赢家：三网租赁</strong></h3>
</div><p>My readers might say I think triple-net lease REITs are always winners. After all, these businesses push all the expenses of owning properties – taxes, insurance, maintenance – onto the tenants. And because these tenants tend to be high-quality, with long lease terms and built-in rent escalators – all the REITs really have to do is cash the checks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我的读者可能会说我认为三网租赁 REIT 总是赢家。毕竟，这些企业将拥有物业的所有费用——税收、保险、维护——转嫁给租户。而且由于这些租户通常是高质量的，租期较长且内置租金递增条款——所有 REIT 真正需要做的就是收支票。</p>
</div><p>But an interesting development I’ve seen in the triple-net space this year has to do with how these companies are, more and more, acting as a stand-in for private equity or traditional banks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但我在三网租赁领域看到的一个有趣发展是，这些公司越来越多地充当私募股权或传统银行的替代品。</p>
</div><p>This year, we’ve seen sale-leasebacks soar. As longtime readers know, that’s when a business sells a property to a REIT and then leases it back immediately. But what few understand is that this is, effectively, just a form of financing. And at a time when rates are still elevated, more of these deals took place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年，我们看到销售回租交易激增。正如长期读者所知，这是一种企业将物业出售给 REIT 后立即租回的方式。但很少有人理解，这实际上只是一种融资形式。在利率仍然较高的情况下，这类交易的数量增加了。</p>
</div><p>In fact, as of the third quarter, volume for these deals is up 23% over 2024. And the volume for the third quarter was the second-highest total in 10 years. One of the winners this year is none other than Realty Income (O), the biggest triple-net lease on the market. As of the time of writing, the stock has returned about 13%. At its peak this year, that total return was about 20%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，截至第三季度，这些交易的交易量比 2024 年增长了 23%。第三季度的交易量是 10 年来的第二高总量。今年的赢家之一就是市场上最大的三网租赁 REIT——Realty Income（O）。截至撰写时，该股票年内回报约为 13%。在今年的高峰期，该总回报约为 20%。</p>
</div><p>If interest rates continue to trend down into 2026, look for REITs like Realty Income – with massive scale and cost of capital advantages – to perform and then outperform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果利率在 2026 年继续下降，像 Realty Income 这样的 REIT——具有巨大的规模和资本成本优势——将表现并超越市场。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Winner: Health Care</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>赢家：医疗保健</strong></h3>
</div><p>Health care has been a standout in 2025. Full stop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>医疗保健在 2025 年表现突出。毫无疑问。</p>
</div><p>For evidence, just look at something like Welltower (WELL). The company owns a portfolio of senior living facilities. The stock has returned about 52% on the year. That not only handily beats the S&amp;P 500, it’s also nearly double the return from Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为证据，只需看看 Welltower（WELL）。该公司拥有一系列老年生活设施。该股票年内回报约为 52%。这不仅大幅超过标准普尔 500 指数，而且几乎是 Nvidia 回报的两倍。</p>
</div><p>The bullish case for health care is easy – America’s Baby Boomers (all 76.4 million of them) are getting older. In fact, 2025 is believed to have been “peak 65,” or the year that a record number of people turned that critical age.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>医疗保健的看涨理由很简单——美国的婴儿潮一代（共 7640 万人）正在变老。事实上，2025 年被认为是 “65 岁高峰年”，即创纪录数量的人们达到了这个关键年龄。</p>
</div><p>And while 2025 might end up being the peak, this trend is not going away. Millions of Americans will age into retirement every year going forward. And as they do, they’ll make more use of health care and long-term care facilities. This “silver tsunami” trend has legs, and it should be a years-long tailwind for health care REITs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 2025 年可能会成为高峰，但这一趋势不会消失。未来每年都会有数百万美国人步入退休年龄。随着他们的退休，他们将更多地使用医疗保健和长期护理设施。这一 “银色海啸” 趋势具有持续性，预计将为医疗保健房地产投资信托基金（REITs）提供多年的顺风。</p>
</div><p>One name I continue to like in this space is Healthpeak Properties (DOC). And while the stock is down about 12% on the year, it continues to boast an impressive portfolio of medical and senior living facilities in its portfolio. It’s also cheap and has a dividend yield of about 6.7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我在这个领域继续看好的一个名字是 Healthpeak Properties（DOC）。尽管该股票今年下跌了约 12%，但它仍然拥有令人印象深刻的医疗和老年生活设施组合。它的估值也很便宜，股息收益率约为 6.7%。</p>
</div><p>Look for Healthpeak and other health care REITs to see heightened demand in the years ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计 Healthpeak 和其他医疗保健 REITs 在未来几年将面临更高的需求。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>It Finally Happened</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>终于发生了</p>
</div><p>The Myth Of ‘Owning The Market’</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>‘拥有市场’ 的神话</p>
</div><p>Buy Alert: 6 Dividend Stocks At Near 52-Week Lows</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>买入警报：6 只接近 52 周低点的股息股票</p>
</div>

今年的房地产投资信托基金（REIT）赢家和输家