<p>比特币的看跌动能已经达到冷却状态，价格维持在 11 月底建立的最后一个低点之上。然而，尽管有稳定的上升趋势，但看涨反转的迹象仍然较弱。有趣的是，最近发布了一项评估，深入探讨了可能影响比特币下一次重大走势的因素。</p>
<p><strong>分析师利用 MVRV 指标指出关键支撑和阻力区域</strong></p>
<p>在 12 月 12 日发布的一条 X 动态中，市场分析师 Ali Martinez 表示，比特币的下一次重大走势取决于价格在一组识别出的关键水平附近的表现，这些水平是基于 MVRV 极端偏差定价区间的数据。为了提供背景，这一指标用于识别比特币何时被低估或高估，过去在某些水平附近的活动是一个决定性因素。它通过将比特币的市场价格与其实现价格进行比较，并绘制出可能的极端偏差水平，如±0.5 和±1.0，来实现这一功能。</p>
<p>从下面的图表来看，$99,000 对应于 +0.5 标准偏差区间。这个价格水平在历史上通常作为局部顶部，尤其是在抵抗短期看涨动能时。这是因为卖方在面临任何真正的反对时，倾向于增加获利了结的行为。有趣的是，突破这个$99,000 阻力水平可能是看涨兴趣觉醒的迹象，可能在其重新测试时引发看涨动能的流入。</p>
<p>另一方面，最直接的支撑区域被认为位于$76,000 价格附近。值得注意的是，这一区域对应于-0.5 偏差区间，表明如果达到该价格水平，比特币将被低估。</p>
<p>过去的市场周期也显示，回调进入这一价格区域往往会在随后的上涨动能中出现，因为 ‘买入回调’ 的心态可能占据主导地位。可以预期，跌破这一关键支撑区域将是市场内卖压加剧的结果。当这种情况发生时，比特币价格可能会向下修正至更低的价格水平。</p>
<p><strong>指标显示$122,000 和$53,000 是下一个关键关注区域</strong></p>
<p>值得注意的是，如果比特币突破$99,000 阻力位，预计将面临另一场战斗。指标的读数显示，+1 标准偏差区间大约在$122,000。看涨反弹通常会达到这一价格区域，并遇到显著的阻力，导致价格急剧下跌。因此，突破 +1.0 偏差可能会预示着新历史最高价的形成。</p>
<p>此外，-1.0 偏差位于$53,000 价格水平。如果-0.5 偏差失效，比特币价格可能会开始向$53,000 的看跌周期，因为它是下一个重要支撑。这是因为它在历史上通常作为强有力的积累区域，在此之前会出现一些横盘整理，然后随之而来的是主要的价格扩张。截至发稿时，比特币的价格约为$90,400，过去一天记录了 1.24% 的损失，数据来源于 CoinMarketCap。</p>

GBTC

<p>比特币当前价格约为 90,400 美元，面临 76,000 美元和 99,000 美元的关键水平。分析师 Ali Martinez 使用 MVRV 极端偏差定价区间强调了这些水平。99,000 美元是一个重要的阻力位，而 76,000 美元是一个关键的支撑位。突破 99,000 美元可能会导致价格上涨至 122,000 美元，而跌破 76,000 美元可能会将价格压低至 53,000 美元。市场保持谨慎，弱势的看涨反转信号显现</p>

<p>Bitcoin’s bearish momentum has since reached a cool-off state, as price maintains above the last swing low established late November. However, although there has been a steady uptrend, signs of a bullish reversal remain weak. Interestingly, a recent evaluation has been published, which delves into the factors that may affect Bitcoin’s next major move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币的看跌动能已经达到冷却状态，价格维持在 11 月底建立的最后一个低点之上。然而，尽管有稳定的上升趋势，但看涨反转的迹象仍然较弱。有趣的是，最近发布了一项评估，深入探讨了可能影响比特币下一次重大走势的因素。</p>
</div><p><strong>Analyst Points To Key Support, Resistance Zones Using MVRV Metric</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>分析师利用 MVRV 指标指出关键支撑和阻力区域</strong></p>
</div><p>In an X post released on December 12, market analyst Ali Martinez shares that Bitcoin’s next significant move depends on how the price acts around a set of identified critical levels using data from the MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands. For context, this metric is used to identify when Bitcoin is undervalued or overvalued, with past activity around certain levels being a defining factor. It serves this function by comparing Bitcoin’s market price to its Realized Price and plotting extreme levels of likely deviation, such as ±0.5 and ±1.0, around the realized price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 12 月 12 日发布的一条 X 动态中，市场分析师 Ali Martinez 表示，比特币的下一次重大走势取决于价格在一组识别出的关键水平附近的表现，这些水平是基于 MVRV 极端偏差定价区间的数据。为了提供背景，这一指标用于识别比特币何时被低估或高估，过去在某些水平附近的活动是一个决定性因素。它通过将比特币的市场价格与其实现价格进行比较，并绘制出可能的极端偏差水平，如±0.5 和±1.0，来实现这一功能。</p>
</div><p>From the chart below, $99,000 stands in correspondence to the +0.5 standard deviation band. This price level has historically functioned as a local top, especially in resistance against short-term bullish momentum. This happens because there is an increase in profit-taking among sellers, as they are prone to exiting in the presence of any real opposition. Interestingly, a significant break above this $99,000 resistance level could be a sign of awakening bullish interest, potentially causing the inflow of bullish momentum upon its retest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从下面的图表来看，$99,000 对应于 +0.5 标准偏差区间。这个价格水平在历史上通常作为局部顶部，尤其是在抵抗短期看涨动能时。这是因为卖方在面临任何真正的反对时，倾向于增加获利了结的行为。有趣的是，突破这个$99,000 阻力水平可能是看涨兴趣觉醒的迹象，可能在其重新测试时引发看涨动能的流入。</p>
</div><p>On the flipside, the most immediate support zone is seen to lie around the $76,000 price. Notably, this region corresponds to the –0.5 deviation band, suggesting that it is a price level where Bitcoin would become undervalued if reached.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，最直接的支撑区域被认为位于$76,000 价格附近。值得注意的是，这一区域对应于-0.5 偏差区间，表明如果达到该价格水平，比特币将被低估。</p>
</div><p>Past market cycles also reveal that pullbacks into this price region have often preceded increased upward momentum, owing to the ‘buy-the-dip’ mentality that must have prevailed. Expectedly, a slip beneath this key support zone would be a result of intensified sell pressure within the market. When this development occurs, the Bitcoin price could see an even deeper correction towards the south side of the price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去的市场周期也显示，回调进入这一价格区域往往会在随后的上涨动能中出现，因为 ‘买入回调’ 的心态可能占据主导地位。可以预期，跌破这一关键支撑区域将是市场内卖压加剧的结果。当这种情况发生时，比特币价格可能会向下修正至更低的价格水平。</p>
</div><p><strong>Metric Suggests $122,000 And $53,000 Are Next Crucial Zones To Watch</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>指标显示$122,000 和$53,000 是下一个关键关注区域</strong></p>
</div><p>Notably, Bitcoin is expected to face another battle in the scenario where it breaks above the $99,000 resistance. Readings from the metric reveal that the +1 standard deviation band stands roughly at $122,000. Bullish rallies have often reached this price region, with significant resistance met to send prices sharply downwards. A break above the +1.0 deviation could therefore precede the formation of a new all-time-high price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，如果比特币突破$99,000 阻力位，预计将面临另一场战斗。指标的读数显示，+1 标准偏差区间大约在$122,000。看涨反弹通常会达到这一价格区域，并遇到显著的阻力，导致价格急剧下跌。因此，突破 +1.0 偏差可能会预示着新历史最高价的形成。</p>
</div><p>Also, the –1.0 deviation stands at the $53,000 price level. If the –0.5 deviation were to fail, the Bitcoin price could begin a bearish cycle towards $53,000, as it stands as the next significant support. This is so because it has historically functioned as a strong accumulation zone, where a bit of sideways movement was seen before major price expansions followed. At press time, Bitcoin stands at approximately $90,400, with a loss of %1.24 recorded since the last day, per CoinMarketCap data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，-1.0 偏差位于$53,000 价格水平。如果-0.5 偏差失效，比特币价格可能会开始向$53,000 的看跌周期，因为它是下一个重要支撑。这是因为它在历史上通常作为强有力的积累区域，在此之前会出现一些横盘整理，然后随之而来的是主要的价格扩张。截至发稿时，比特币的价格约为$90,400，过去一天记录了 1.24% 的损失，数据来源于 CoinMarketCap。</p>
</div>

比特币面临 76,000 美元和 99,000 美元的关键水平——接下来会如何发展？