<p>在过去几个月中，汇率保持稳定，顶级分析师预测，由于美联储与欧洲央行（ECB）之间的分歧，这一趋势可能在未来几个月继续。当前交易价格为 1.1740，远高于上个月的低点 1.1463。</p>
<p><strong>顶级分析师预测美元将回落</strong></p>
<p>由于许多投资者预测美元指数将在未来几个月开始下滑，该货币对继续上涨。</p>
<p>在高盛和德意志银行等公司的几份报告中，分析师指出，所有条件都非常支持美元下滑。</p>
<p>主要原因是美联储可能会保持鸽派立场，而其他中央银行则开始加息。</p>
<p>例如，分析师认为日本银行（BoJ）将在本月加息。此外，分析师们预计欧洲央行（ECB）将在明年第三季度加息。</p>
<p>其他预计将保持鹰派观点的中央银行包括澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）、中国人民银行（PBoC）和英格兰银行（BoE）。</p>
<p>另一方面，美联储预计将在几个月内保持鸽派立场。</p>
<p>它已经开始实施量化宽松（QE）政策，官员们预测今年将再进行一次降息。分析师认为，随着唐纳德·特朗普将杰罗姆·鲍威尔替换为一个 “傀儡”，该银行将会多次降息。</p>
<p>该银行降息的唯一限制将是其他官员，他们已经开始出现异议。在上次会议上，有三位官员表示异议，有些人投票支持降息，有些人则支持加息。</p>
<p><strong>欧洲央行利率决策即将到来</strong></p>
<p>该货币对的下一个关键催化剂将是即将公布的欧洲央行利率决策，预计将在周四发布。</p>
<p>经济学家认为，鉴于该地区经济相对良好且通胀基本得到控制，银行将在此次会议上决定维持利率不变。</p>
<p>因此，大多数分析师预计该银行将在明年第三季度加息。然而，一些分析师预计将在三月份降息，一位彭博社分析师写道：</p>
<p>“虽然欧洲央行似乎不愿再次降息，但我们认为，维持不变的风险偏向下行。我们认为，中央银行低估了美国关税对该地区经济构成的威胁。”</p>
<p>因此，即将召开的货币政策会议将为未来的会议提供预期的指引。</p>
<p><strong>技术分析</strong></p>
<p>EURUSD 图表 | 来源：TradingView</p>
<p>在过去几天中，汇率一直处于上升趋势，从 11 月的低点 1.1463 上涨至今天的 1.1740。它形成了一个反向头肩形态，这是一个流行的看涨延续信号。</p>
<p>该货币对已经突破了该形态的颈线，这一走势确认了其上升趋势。同时，相对强弱指数（RSI）和 MACD 指标在过去几周持续上升。</p>
<p>因此，我们面临的情况是，该货币对可能继续上涨，因为多头目标是 1.1913 的下一个关键阻力位，这是今年的最高点。突破该水平将指向更多的涨幅，可能达到心理关口 1.2000。</p>

高盛

<p>高盛和其他分析师预测美元将下滑，这将影响欧元/美元汇率。美联储的鸽派立场与欧洲央行、日本银行和英格兰银行等其他中央银行预计的加息形成对比。欧元/美元已上涨至 1.1740，技术指标显示进一步上涨的可能性。欧洲央行即将做出的利率决定是一个关键焦点，大多数分析师预计明年将加息。欧元/美元可能会瞄准 1.1913 的阻力位，甚至可能达到 1.2000</p>

<p>The  exchange rate held steady in the past few months, a trend that may continue in the coming months as top analysts predict a return to US dollar slide amid a divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central (ECB). It was trading at 1.1740, much higher than last month’s low of 1.1463.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几个月中，汇率保持稳定，顶级分析师预测，由于美联储与欧洲央行（ECB）之间的分歧，这一趋势可能在未来几个月继续。当前交易价格为 1.1740，远高于上个月的低点 1.1463。</p>
</div><p><strong>Top analysts predict a return to US dollar slide</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>顶级分析师预测美元将回落</strong></p>
</div><p>The  pair continued rising as many investors predicted that the US dollar index would start its slide in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于许多投资者预测美元指数将在未来几个月开始下滑，该货币对继续上涨。</p>
</div><p>In several reports, analysts by companies like Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank noted that all conditions were highly supportive of a dollar slide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在高盛和德意志银行等公司的几份报告中，分析师指出，所有条件都非常支持美元下滑。</p>
</div><p>The main reason is the Federal Reserve will likely maintain a dovish tone as other central banks start hiking interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要原因是美联储可能会保持鸽派立场，而其他中央银行则开始加息。</p>
</div><p>For example, analysts believe that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates this month. Also, the expectation among analysts is that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hike in the third quarter of next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，分析师认为日本银行（BoJ）将在本月加息。此外，分析师们预计欧洲央行（ECB）将在明年第三季度加息。</p>
</div><p>Other central banks expected to maintain a hawkish view are the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), and the Bank of England (BoE).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他预计将保持鹰派观点的中央银行包括澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）、中国人民银行（PBoC）和英格兰银行（BoE）。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a dovish tone in a few months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，美联储预计将在几个月内保持鸽派立场。</p>
</div><p>It has already started its quantitative easing (QE) policy, and officials predict that it will deliver one more cut this year. Analysts see the bank cutting rates more times as Donald Trump will replace Jerome Powell with a ‘puppet’.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它已经开始实施量化宽松（QE）政策，官员们预测今年将再进行一次降息。分析师认为，随着唐纳德·特朗普将杰罗姆·鲍威尔替换为一个 “傀儡”，该银行将会多次降息。</p>
</div><p>The only limit to the bank’s Fed cuts will be other officials, who have started dissenting. Three officials dissented in the last meeting, with some voting for a cut and others for a raise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该银行降息的唯一限制将是其他官员，他们已经开始出现异议。在上次会议上，有三位官员表示异议，有些人投票支持降息，有些人则支持加息。</p>
</div><p><strong>ECB interest rate decision ahead</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>欧洲央行利率决策即将到来</strong></p>
</div><p>The next key catalyst for the  pair will be the upcoming European Central Bank interest rate decision, which will come out on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该货币对的下一个关键催化剂将是即将公布的欧洲央行利率决策，预计将在周四发布。</p>
</div><p>Economists believe that the bank will decide to leave interest rates unchanged in this meeting as the bloc’s economy is doing relatively well and inflation has largely been contained.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家认为，鉴于该地区经济相对良好且通胀基本得到控制，银行将在此次会议上决定维持利率不变。</p>
</div><p>As a result, most analysts expect that the bank will hike rates in the third quarter of next year. However, some analysts expect it to cut in March, with a Bloomberg analyst writing:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，大多数分析师预计该银行将在明年第三季度加息。然而，一些分析师预计将在三月份降息，一位彭博社分析师写道：</p>
</div><p>“While the ECB appears reluctant to cut rates again, our view is that the risks to our call for no change are skewed to the downside. We think the central bank is underestimating the threat US tariffs pose to the region’s economy.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“虽然欧洲央行似乎不愿再次降息，但我们认为，维持不变的风险偏向下行。我们认为，中央银行低估了美国关税对该地区经济构成的威胁。”</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the upcoming monetary policy meeting will shed light on what to expect in the coming meetings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，即将召开的货币政策会议将为未来的会议提供预期的指引。</p>
</div><p><strong>technical analysis</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>技术分析</strong></p>
</div><p>EURUSD chart | Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EURUSD 图表 | 来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>The  exchange rate has been in an uptrend in the past few days, rising from a low of 1.1463 in November to 1.1740 today. It has formed an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, a popular bullish continuation sign.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几天中，汇率一直处于上升趋势，从 11 月的低点 1.1463 上涨至今天的 1.1740。它形成了一个反向头肩形态，这是一个流行的看涨延续信号。</p>
</div><p>The pair has already moved above this pattern’s neckline, a move that has confirmed its uptrend. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have continued rising in the past few weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该货币对已经突破了该形态的颈线，这一走势确认了其上升趋势。同时，相对强弱指数（RSI）和 MACD 指标在过去几周持续上升。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, we are staring at a situation where the pair may keep rising as bulls target the next key resistance at 1.1913, its highest level this year. A move above that level will point to more gains, potentially to the psychological point at 1.2000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我们面临的情况是，该货币对可能继续上涨，因为多头目标是 1.1913 的下一个关键阻力位，这是今年的最高点。突破该水平将指向更多的涨幅，可能达到心理关口 1.2000。</p>
</div>

欧元/美元预测，高盛预测美元将再次下滑