<p>卖压来自两个方面，ETF 和鲸鱼供应——它们都集中在同一价格区间。</p>
<p>美国以太坊现货 ETF 每日净流出为-1941 万美元，而市场在过去三天内消化了一笔价值 2385 万美元、数量为 7621 ETH 的鲸鱼出售，价格接近 3129 美元。</p>
<p>这种堆叠的供应通常会导致更剧烈的抛售，尤其是在交易者已经处于谨慎状态时。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-soso.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-soso.png"/></p>
<p>来源：SosoValue</p>
<p>相反，以太坊的交易表现得好像买家故意在等待这些供应。</p>
<p>现货和期货流动性数据显示，在多个短期窗口内呈现负面趋势，但价格走势保持稳定，向下的跟进有限。</p>
<p>以太坊在实现价格附近徘徊，使得信息更加明显；卖方出现，但需求吸收了冲击，并拒绝给予空头动能。</p>
<h2><strong>谁在购买这些以太坊？</strong></h2>
<p>ETF 流出保持有序，指向的是轮换而非恐慌。鲸鱼转移增加了供应，但价格并未破裂，清晰地显示出吸收的迹象。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-coinglass.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-coinglass.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CoinGlass</p>
<p>现货和期货数据显示，以太坊 [ETH] 继续以净流出的方式离开交易所。</p>
<p>这种流出特征避免了任何清算级联，并使以太坊在实现价格附近保持稳定，将市场锁定在 “卖出得到满足” 的模式中。</p>
<h2><strong>实现价格仍然像弹簧板</strong></h2>
<p>以太坊的实现价格在之前的周期中多次标记拐点，一旦卖压耗尽，通常会出现强劲的上涨扩展。</p>
<p>以太坊现在再次处于同一区域，当前反应与历史行为相匹配，价格首先稳定，然后波动性扩大。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-cq.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-cq.jpg"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>这为交易者提供了清晰的解读。</p>
<p>如果实现价格持续保持，而供应不断被吸收，市场通常会从分配转向积累。如果实现价格失败，图表通常会寻找下一个需求口袋。</p>
<h2><strong>动能收紧，结构决定下一步</strong></h2>
<p>自 2632 美元抛售以来，以太坊保持了更高的高点和更高的低点的上升趋势。相对强弱指数保持在低 40 区间，这符合整合而非完全崩溃。</p>
<p>在 MACD 上，蓝线不断接近橙色信号线，牛市需要尽快实现交叉，以避免额外的下行压力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-TV.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-TV.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>上升支撑仍然是清晰的触发点。反弹使 3600 美元的目标保持在考虑范围内。</p>
<p>失去 2973 美元将削弱该设置，并增加向 50% 斐波那契区间深度回撤的可能性，买家之前对此做出了反应。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最终思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>实现价格仍然是吸收是否保持或失败的战场。</em></li>
<li><em>MACD 收敛和上升支撑将决定以太坊是扩展还是下跌。</em></li>
</ul>

ETHE

<p>尽管一只鲸鱼出售了 7,621 个 ETH，并且 ETF 出现资金流出，以太坊的价格仍然稳定在约 3,129 美元。买家吸收了供应，防止了价格的下跌。现货和期货数据显示 ETH 正在离开交易所，避免了清算连锁反应。实现价格作为支撑，如果吸收持续，价格有扩张的潜力。MACD 收敛和上升支撑是未来价格走势的关键</p>

<p>Selling pressure built from two angles, ETFs and whale supply — it all arrived at the same price zone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卖压来自两个方面，ETF 和鲸鱼供应——它们都集中在同一价格区间。</p>
</div><p>U.S. ETH spot ETFs posted -$19.41M in daily net outflows, while the market digested a whale sale of 7,621 ETH worth $23.85M near $3,129 over the past three days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国以太坊现货 ETF 每日净流出为-1941 万美元，而市场在过去三天内消化了一笔价值 2385 万美元、数量为 7621 ETH 的鲸鱼出售，价格接近 3129 美元。</p>
</div><p>That kind of stacked supply usually forces a sharper flush, especially when traders are already lean and cautious.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种堆叠的供应通常会导致更剧烈的抛售，尤其是在交易者已经处于谨慎状态时。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-soso.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-soso.png"/></p>
<p>Source: SosoValue</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：SosoValue</p>
</div><p>Instead, Ethereum kept trading as if buyers were waiting for that supply on purpose.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，以太坊的交易表现得好像买家故意在等待这些供应。</p>
</div><p>Spot and Futures flow readings leant negative across multiple short windows, yet price action stayed controlled, with limited follow-through to the downside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现货和期货流动性数据显示，在多个短期窗口内呈现负面趋势，但价格走势保持稳定，向下的跟进有限。</p>
</div><p>ETH hovering around the realized price made the message louder; sellers showed up, but demand absorbed the hit and refused to hand bears momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以太坊在实现价格附近徘徊，使得信息更加明显；卖方出现，但需求吸收了冲击，并拒绝给予空头动能。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Who’s buying all this ETH?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>谁在购买这些以太坊？</strong></h2>
</div><p>ETF outflows stayed orderly, pointing to rotation rather than panic. Whale transfers added supply, yet the price didn’t crack, a clear sign of absorption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ETF 流出保持有序，指向的是轮换而非恐慌。鲸鱼转移增加了供应，但价格并未破裂，清晰地显示出吸收的迹象。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-coinglass.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-coinglass.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CoinGlass</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CoinGlass</p>
</div><p>Spot and Futures data showed Ethereum [ETH] continuing to leave exchanges on a net basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现货和期货数据显示，以太坊 [ETH] 继续以净流出的方式离开交易所。</p>
</div><p>That outflow profile avoided any liquidation cascade and kept ETH steady around the realized price, locking the market in “sell gets met” mode.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种流出特征避免了任何清算级联，并使以太坊在实现价格附近保持稳定，将市场锁定在 “卖出得到满足” 的模式中。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Realized Price still acts like a springboard</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>实现价格仍然像弹簧板</strong></h2>
</div><p>Ethereum’s realized price has repeatedly marked inflection points across prior cycles, with strong upside expansions following once sell pressure exhausts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以太坊的实现价格在之前的周期中多次标记拐点，一旦卖压耗尽，通常会出现强劲的上涨扩展。</p>
</div><p>ETH now sits on that same zone again, and the current reaction matches the historical behavior, price stabilizes first, then volatility expands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以太坊现在再次处于同一区域，当前反应与历史行为相匹配，价格首先稳定，然后波动性扩大。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-cq.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-cq.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>That sets up a clean read for traders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这为交易者提供了清晰的解读。</p>
</div><p>If the realized price keeps holding while supply keeps getting absorbed, the market often shifts from distribution into accumulation. If the realized price fails, the chart typically searches for the next demand pocket.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果实现价格持续保持，而供应不断被吸收，市场通常会从分配转向积累。如果实现价格失败，图表通常会寻找下一个需求口袋。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Momentum tightens, and structure decides the next leg</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>动能收紧，结构决定下一步</strong></h2>
</div><p>Since the $2,632 sell-off, Ethereum has maintained an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. RSI holds in the low 40s, which fits consolidation rather than a full breakdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2632 美元抛售以来，以太坊保持了更高的高点和更高的低点的上升趋势。相对强弱指数保持在低 40 区间，这符合整合而非完全崩溃。</p>
</div><p>On MACD, the blue line keeps moving closer to the orange signal line, and bulls need that crossover sooner rather than later to avoid additional downside bleed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 MACD 上，蓝线不断接近橙色信号线，牛市需要尽快实现交叉，以避免额外的下行压力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-TV.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-TV.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Ascending support remains the clean trigger. A bounce keeps $3,600 in play.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上升支撑仍然是清晰的触发点。反弹使 3600 美元的目标保持在考虑范围内。</p>
</div><p>A loss of $2,973 weakens the setup and increases the odds of a deeper retrace toward the 50% Fibonacci zone, where buyers previously reacted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>失去 2973 美元将削弱该设置，并增加向 50% 斐波那契区间深度回撤的可能性，买家之前对此做出了反应。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最终思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Realized Price remains the battlefield where absorption either holds or fails.</em></li>
<li><em>MACD convergence and ascending support will decide whether ETH expands or bleeds.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>实现价格仍然是吸收是否保持或失败的战场。</em></li>
<li><em>MACD 收敛和上升支撑将决定以太坊是扩展还是下跌。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

一位巨鲸出售了 7600 枚 ETH——那么为什么以太坊没有出现崩盘呢？