<p>市场的不确定性并没有放过 L1 的链上动态。</p>
<p>Solana [SOL] 也不例外。从技术上讲，SOL 是本季度表现最差的高市值资产，下降了 37%。事实上，这标志着 SOL 自 2022 年第二季度以来最大的季度亏损，使得 FOMO 始终处于观望状态。</p>
<p>在持有者方面，抛售风险显然在加剧。净实现损失激增，短期持有者净利润率（&gt; 155 天）深陷红色区域，显示出教科书式的抛售，因为 SOL 从 250 美元的峰值下跌了 50%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/SOLUSD_2025-12-14_14-14-54.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/SOLUSD_2025-12-14_14-14-54.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView (SOL/USDT)</p>
<p>然而，长期持有者的耐心也在减弱。</p>
<p>链上指标显示，Solana 的长期持有者净利润率回落至四月份的水平，这一水平曾引发 SOL 的 30% 跌幅。也就是说，在今天的风险规避市场中，这一回调可能只是经典的洗盘，冲击弱势持有者。</p>
<p>但这次感觉有所不同。</p>
<p>看跌的市场结构开始渗透到网络基本面中。如果这一趋势持续下去，SOL 可能面临其最大的威胁，考验其支撑水平和生态系统的韧性。</p>
<h2><strong>当盈亏平衡成本为 1700 万美元时</strong></h2>
<p>SOL 一直在加大力度走向主流，以保持信心。</p>
<p>在 ETF 上市、Firedancer 升级上线、越来越多的机构采用链上代币化资产以及多链雄心之间，摩根大通对 SOL 的热情并不令人意外。</p>
<p>但市场并没有完全认同这种看法。分析师对 Solana 的网络健康状况表示担忧，因为验证者数量在两年内骤降 68%，仅剩约 800 个节点。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-14-143916.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-14-143916.png"/></p>
<p>来源：X</p>
<p>简单来说，Solana 的质押正面临严重压力。</p>
<p>原因？技术疲软。SOL 陷入了一个反馈循环，未能突破关键水平，扼杀了 FOMO，最终成为本季度表现最差的资产之一。这意味着质押成本正在经历严峻的压力测试。</p>
<p>作为背景，验证者需要质押的 SOL 数量仅为盈亏平衡的三倍，每个区块的成本约为 1700 万美元。因此，验证者感受到压力，网络安全面临威胁。</p>
<p>在这种情况下，解除质押开始显得合情合理。这就是为什么 Solana 的回调不仅仅是一次 “健康的重置”。相反，验证者的退出正在挑战采用故事，提出关于网络韧性的问题。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最终思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li><em>Solana 的验证者数量在两年内下降了 68%，仅剩 800 个活跃节点，网络安全面临压力。</em></li>
<li><em>盈亏平衡所需的 SOL 数量已增加三倍，节点运营成本为每个区块 1700 万美元，使得解除质押变得越来越合理。</em></li>
</ul>

HSDT

<p>Solana 面临验证者危机，目前仅剩 800 个节点，质押成本已上升至每个区块 1700 万美元。SOL 的价格在本季度下跌了 37%，创下自 2022 年第二季度以来的最差表现。由于验证者的退出，网络安全受到威胁，这对其采用故事和韧性构成挑战</p>

<p>The market FUD hasn’t spared the on-chain dynamics of L1s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场的不确定性并没有放过 L1 的链上动态。</p>
</div><p>Solana [SOL] is no exception. Technically, SOL is the worst-performing high-cap asset this quarter, dropping 37%. In fact, this marks SOL’s largest quarterly bleed since Q2 2022, keeping FOMO firmly on the sidelines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Solana [SOL] 也不例外。从技术上讲，SOL 是本季度表现最差的高市值资产，下降了 37%。事实上，这标志着 SOL 自 2022 年第二季度以来最大的季度亏损，使得 FOMO 始终处于观望状态。</p>
</div><p>On the HODLer front, capitulation risk is clearly building. Net realized losses are spiking, and STH NUPL (&gt; 155 days) is deep in the red, showing textbook capitulation as SOL has dropped 50% from its $250 peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在持有者方面，抛售风险显然在加剧。净实现损失激增，短期持有者净利润率（&gt; 155 天）深陷红色区域，显示出教科书式的抛售，因为 SOL 从 250 美元的峰值下跌了 50%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/SOLUSD_2025-12-14_14-14-54.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/SOLUSD_2025-12-14_14-14-54.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView (SOL/USDT)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView (SOL/USDT)</p>
</div><p>However, patience is running thin among long-term holders too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，长期持有者的耐心也在减弱。</p>
</div><p>On-chain metrics show Solana’s LTH NUPL sliding back to the April levels that triggered SOL’s 30% dump. That said, in today’s risk-off market, this pullback could just be a classic shakeout, flushing out weak hands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>链上指标显示，Solana 的长期持有者净利润率回落至四月份的水平，这一水平曾引发 SOL 的 30% 跌幅。也就是说，在今天的风险规避市场中，这一回调可能只是经典的洗盘，冲击弱势持有者。</p>
</div><p>But this time feels different.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这次感觉有所不同。</p>
</div><p>The bearish market structure is starting to seep into network fundamentals. If this trend holds, SOL could be staring down its biggest threat yet, testing both its support levels and the resilience of its ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看跌的市场结构开始渗透到网络基本面中。如果这一趋势持续下去，SOL 可能面临其最大的威胁，考验其支撑水平和生态系统的韧性。</p>
</div><h2><strong>When breaking even costs $17M</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>当盈亏平衡成本为 1700 万美元时</strong></h2>
</div><p>SOL has been doubling down on going mainstream to keep its confidence up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SOL 一直在加大力度走向主流，以保持信心。</p>
</div><p>Between the ETF launch, the Firedancer upgrade going live, growing institutional adoption with more tokenized assets on-chain, and multi-blockchain ambitions, it’s no surprise JPMorgan is hyped on SOL.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 ETF 上市、Firedancer 升级上线、越来越多的机构采用链上代币化资产以及多链雄心之间，摩根大通对 SOL 的热情并不令人意外。</p>
</div><p>But the market isn’t exactly vibing the same way. Analysts are raising eyebrows over Solana’s network health as validator numbers crater, down 68% in just two years, leaving only around 800 nodes standing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但市场并没有完全认同这种看法。分析师对 Solana 的网络健康状况表示担忧，因为验证者数量在两年内骤降 68%，仅剩约 800 个节点。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-14-143916.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-14-143916.png"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X</p>
</div><p>Simply put, Solana staking is under serious pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简单来说，Solana 的质押正面临严重压力。</p>
</div><p>The reason? Weak technicals. SOL’s stuck in a feedback loop, failing key levels, killing FOMO, and ending up one of the worst-performing assets this quarter. That means staking costs are getting stress-tested hard.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原因？技术疲软。SOL 陷入了一个反馈循环，未能突破关键水平，扼杀了 FOMO，最终成为本季度表现最差的资产之一。这意味着质押成本正在经历严峻的压力测试。</p>
</div><p>For context, the amount of SOL a validator needs to stake just to break even has tripled, costing around $17 million per block. Consequently, validators are feeling the squeeze, putting network security under threat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为背景，验证者需要质押的 SOL 数量仅为盈亏平衡的三倍，每个区块的成本约为 1700 万美元。因此，验证者感受到压力，网络安全面临威胁。</p>
</div><p>In this setup, unstaking starts to make total sense. That’s why Solana’s pullback isn’t just a “healthy reset.” Instead, validator exits are challenging the adoption story, raising questions about the network’s resilience.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，解除质押开始显得合情合理。这就是为什么 Solana 的回调不仅仅是一次 “健康的重置”。相反，验证者的退出正在挑战采用故事，提出关于网络韧性的问题。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最终思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Solana’s validator count has dropped 68% in two years, leaving only 800 active nodes and putting network security under pressure.</em></li>
<li><em>The SOL required to break even has tripled, with node ops costing $17 million per block, making unstaking increasingly logical.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>Solana 的验证者数量在两年内下降了 68%，仅剩 800 个活跃节点，网络安全面临压力。</em></li>
<li><em>盈亏平衡所需的 SOL 数量已增加三倍，节点运营成本为每个区块 1700 万美元，使得解除质押变得越来越合理。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

Solana 的验证者危机解析——800 个节点仍在运行，一个节点价值 1700 万美元