<p>（这里表达的观点是作者的观点，他是路透社的专栏作家。）</p><p>作者：Mike Dolan</p><p>12 月 15 日 - 今日美国和全球市场的关注点 作者：Mike Dolan，财经与市场特约编辑 美国股市和债市在周一获得喘息，之前由于与人工智能相关的震荡让人不安，市场的注意力转向周二的重要就业报告和中国最新一系列令人失望的经济数据。</p><p>随着华尔街进入今年最后一个完整的交易周，围绕主导的人工智能主题的情绪几乎无法更加动荡。上周，Oracle 和 Broadcom 传出的令人失望的消息对昂贵的科技股造成了双重打击，这两家人工智能领军企业的股价在周四和周五分别下跌了 18% 和 11%——并且也拖累了龙头企业 Nvidia 在周五下跌了 3%。</p><p>根据路透社的消息，Nvidia 在周一恢复了一些涨幅，因其告知中国客户正在评估增加其强大的 H200 人工智能芯片的生产能力，因为订单超过了其当前的产出水平。美光公司（Micron）也将在本周晚些时候公布财报。</p><p>但随着年末的临近，市场似乎出现了相当大的行业轮动。科技股回调导致纳斯达克在周五下跌了 1.6%，但道琼斯工业平均指数上涨了 1%，并在当天创下历史新高。</p><p>美国指数期货在周一开盘前普遍上涨，部分缓解来自于隔夜国债收益率的下滑。</p><p>即使在周五大型科技股下跌的情况下，长期国债也出现下跌——30 年期债券收益率达到三个月来的最高点，2-30 年期收益率曲线差距也加大至自九月以来的最高水平。尽管收益率在隔夜有所回落，但债券在年末面临众多因素的影响——尤其是周二至关重要且延迟已久的 11 月就业报告。但国债还必须应对周五可能出现的日本银行加息，这将对日本和全球债券市场产生重要影响，以及周三的 20 年期美国国债拍卖。</p><p>关于明年五月下一任美联储主席的最新政治信号也在被消化。周五晚间，特朗普总统告诉《华尔街日报》，他已将新美联储主席的候选人缩小到两人——前美联储理事 Kevin Warsh 或国家经济委员会主任 Kevin Hassett。“这两位 Kevin 都很棒，” 他说。</p><p>在采访前，Polymarket 博彩网站曾将 Hassett 视为明确的热门人选，但在特朗普的评论后，将他获得美联储职位的机会从 75% 下调至 51%。而 Warsh 的机会则从 14% 上调至 40%。</p><p>尽管美元指数总体保持稳定，但对中国离岸人民币的损失却相当明显。尽管中国 11 月的工业、零售和投资数据再次疲软且低于预期，人民币仍然达到了超过一年来的最强水平。此外，房价继续下滑，房地产行业因国有开发商中国万科可能错过债务支付而再次感到紧张。</p><p>由于疲弱数据引发了对再次政府刺激的不可避免的期望，中国股市在周一下跌——但跌幅小于东京和首尔受科技股影响的市场。欧洲市场表现坚挺，英国富时 100 指数表现优于其他市场，因为市场普遍预期周四英国央行将再次降息。欧洲央行也将召开会议——但尽管上周其董事会发出了更鹰派的信息，预计仍将维持政策不变。在其他方面，比特币在经历了一个糟糕的周末后再次跌回 90,000 美元以下——尽管周一早些时候有所企稳。然而，黄金和白银再次上涨。</p><p>今日市场简报</p><ul><li>中国的工业产出增长放缓至 15 个月来的最低水平，而零售销售则创下自该国突然结束严格的 “清零政策” 以来的最差表现，突显出在 2026 年之前迫切需要新的增长动力。</li><li>在经历了辉煌的 2025 年后，投资者预计欧洲银行的股票在 2026 年将继续上涨，得益于强劲的盈利和至关重要的人工智能带来的成本节约。</li><li>日本大型制造商的商业信心在截至 12 月的三个月内达到四年来的最高水平，周一发布的一项备受关注的调查显示，这增强了市场对央行本周将加息的预期。</li></ul><p>美国对委内瑞拉石油出口的收紧可能会扼杀该国的原油产量，并切断总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的主要经济生命线，但 ROI 能源专栏作家 Ron Bousso 认为这对全球市场的影响有限。</p><p>投资者长期以来一直关注公司是否每季度都能超越所谓的 “华尔街预期”，但 ROI 专栏作家 Marty Fridson 认为，或许整个 “超预期” 概念应该进行辩论。</p><p>今日图表</p><p>中国新建住宅价格在 11 月继续下跌，月度价格再次出现负增长，年度降幅加速至 2.4%。随着房地产低迷持续，中国万科再次努力争取债权人的支持，以便在本周到期的境内债务偿还中避免违约，此前国有开发商的计划遭到拒绝。中国房地产行业的最新债务危机自 2021 年以来持续，数据显示上个月工业产出和零售销售增长放缓，突显出迫切需要新的增长动力。</p><p>今日关注的事件（均为东部时间）</p><ul><li>纽约联邦储备银行 12 月制造业调查（08:30），NAHB 12 月住房市场指标（10:00）；加拿大 11 月消费者价格通胀（1:30）</li><li>纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯和美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰均将发表讲话</li></ul><p>想要每个工作日早晨在您的邮箱中收到《晨间投标》吗？请注册新闻通讯</p><p>这里</p><p>。您可以在 ROI 上找到相关内容。</p><p>路透社网站</p><p>，您可以在</p><p>LinkedIn</p><p>上关注我们</p><h3 id="5oo8s184m">X.</h3><p>并收听</p><p>《晨间投标》的最新一集</p><p>每日播客。订阅以听取路透社记者讨论市场和金融领域的重大新闻，每周七天都有播出。所表达的观点仅代表作者本人，不反映路透社新闻的观点，路透社根据信托原则，致力于诚信、独立和无偏见。</p><p>中国房价下跌加剧（复制）</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/756f05aff0ff3f2c5df6d6e95c648a55?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="934" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/756f05aff0ff3f2c5df6d6e95c648a55"/></figure><p>（作者：Mike Dolan；编辑：Hugh Lawson）</p>

英伟达

<p>美国股市和债市在与人工智能相关的抛售后反弹，市场关注即将发布的就业报告和中国经济数据。科技股面临挫折，但英伟达显示出复苏迹象。由于全球因素，国债收益率波动。有关下一任美联储主席的政治信号受到关注。尽管人民币走强，美元指数保持稳定。中国疲弱的数据激发了刺激措施的希望。欧洲市场走强，而比特币和贵金属则表现出混合趋势</p>

<p>(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（这里表达的观点是作者的观点，他是路透社的专栏作家。）</p>
</div><p>By Mike Dolan</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Mike Dolan</p>
</div><p>Dec 15 - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets U.S. stock and bond markets caught a break on Monday after another unnerving AI-related shakeout late last week, with attention switching to Tuesday’s big payrolls report and China’s latest sweep of disappointing economic readouts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>12 月 15 日 - 今日美国和全球市场的关注点 作者：Mike Dolan，财经与市场特约编辑 美国股市和债市在周一获得喘息，之前由于与人工智能相关的震荡让人不安，市场的注意力转向周二的重要就业报告和中国最新一系列令人失望的经济数据。</p>
</div><p>As Wall Street enters the last full trading week of the year, the mood surrounding the dominant artificial intelligence theme could hardly be shakier. Expensive tech stocks were hit with a one-two volley of disappointing news from Oracle and Broadcom last week, with shares in the two AI bellwethers sliding 18% and 11% respectively on Thursday and Friday - and dragging kingpin Nvidia down 3% on Friday, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着华尔街进入今年最后一个完整的交易周，围绕主导的人工智能主题的情绪几乎无法更加动荡。上周，Oracle 和 Broadcom 传出的令人失望的消息对昂贵的科技股造成了双重打击，这两家人工智能领军企业的股价在周四和周五分别下跌了 18% 和 11%——并且也拖累了龙头企业 Nvidia 在周五下跌了 3%。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia regained some ground on Monday after it told Chinese clients it is evaluating adding production capacity for its powerful H200 AI chips as orders exceeded its current output level, according to Reuters’ sources. And Micron is due to report earnings later in the week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据路透社的消息，Nvidia 在周一恢复了一些涨幅，因其告知中国客户正在评估增加其强大的 H200 人工智能芯片的生产能力，因为订单超过了其当前的产出水平。美光公司（Micron）也将在本周晚些时候公布财报。</p>
</div><p>But there appears to be considerable sector rotation afoot in the wider market as the year comes to a close. The tech pullback saw the Nasdaq lose 1.6% on Friday, but the Dow Jones Industrials index gained 1% and hit a record high during the day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但随着年末的临近，市场似乎出现了相当大的行业轮动。科技股回调导致纳斯达克在周五下跌了 1.6%，但道琼斯工业平均指数上涨了 1%，并在当天创下历史新高。</p>
</div><p>U.S. index futures were higher across the board into Monday’s open, with some relief coming from easier Treasury yields overnight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国指数期货在周一开盘前普遍上涨，部分缓解来自于隔夜国债收益率的下滑。</p>
</div><p>Even as Big Tech swooned on Friday, long-dated Treasuries fell too - with the 30-year bond yield hitting 3-month highs and the 2-30 yield curve gap also steepening to the widest since September. While yields fell back somewhat overnight, bonds are navigating numerous factors into yearend - not least the critical and long-delayed November payrolls report on Tuesday. But Treasuries also have to contend with a likely Bank of Japan interest rate rise on Friday, which will have important implications for Japanese and global bond markets, and a 20-year U.S. bond auction on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在周五大型科技股下跌的情况下，长期国债也出现下跌——30 年期债券收益率达到三个月来的最高点，2-30 年期收益率曲线差距也加大至自九月以来的最高水平。尽管收益率在隔夜有所回落，但债券在年末面临众多因素的影响——尤其是周二至关重要且延迟已久的 11 月就业报告。但国债还必须应对周五可能出现的日本银行加息，这将对日本和全球债券市场产生重要影响，以及周三的 20 年期美国国债拍卖。</p>
</div><p>And the latest political signals about the next Federal Reserve chair from next May were also being digested. Late Friday, President Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal that he has narrowed his search for a new Fed chair to two people - former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh or National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. “The two Kevins are great,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于明年五月下一任美联储主席的最新政治信号也在被消化。周五晚间，特朗普总统告诉《华尔街日报》，他已将新美联储主席的候选人缩小到两人——前美联储理事 Kevin Warsh 或国家经济委员会主任 Kevin Hassett。“这两位 Kevin 都很棒，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>The Polymarket betting site, which had made Hassett clear favorite prior to the interview, cut his chances of getting the Fed job to 51% from 75% prior to the Trump comments. Warsh’s chances were lifted to 40% from 14%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在采访前，Polymarket 博彩网站曾将 Hassett 视为明确的热门人选，但在特朗普的评论后，将他获得美联储职位的机会从 75% 下调至 51%。而 Warsh 的机会则从 14% 上调至 40%。</p>
</div><p>The dollar index held broadly stable, despite another sharp loss against China’s offshore yuan. The yuan hit its strongest level in more than a year even after yet another series of weakening and below-forecast updates on China’s industry, retail and investmentfor November. What’s more, house prices extended their slump and property sector nerves were jangled again by fears about a missed debt payment by state-backed developer China Vanke.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管美元指数总体保持稳定，但对中国离岸人民币的损失却相当明显。尽管中国 11 月的工业、零售和投资数据再次疲软且低于预期，人民币仍然达到了超过一年来的最强水平。此外，房价继续下滑，房地产行业因国有开发商中国万科可能错过债务支付而再次感到紧张。</p>
</div><p>With inevitable hopes of another government stimulus stirred by the weak data, China’s stocks fell on Monday - but less than tech-hit markets in Tokyo and Seoul. European markets were firmer, with Britain’s FTSE100 outperforming as the latest Bank of England interest rate cut is now widely expected on Thursday. The European Central Bank is also meeting - but will likely hold policy steady despite more hawkish messages from its board last week. Elsewhere, bitcoin had another rough weekend as it tumbled back below $90,000 - although it steadied somewhat first thing Monday. Gold and silver were back on the rise again, however.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于疲弱数据引发了对再次政府刺激的不可避免的期望，中国股市在周一下跌——但跌幅小于东京和首尔受科技股影响的市场。欧洲市场表现坚挺，英国富时 100 指数表现优于其他市场，因为市场普遍预期周四英国央行将再次降息。欧洲央行也将召开会议——但尽管上周其董事会发出了更鹰派的信息，预计仍将维持政策不变。在其他方面，比特币在经历了一个糟糕的周末后再次跌回 90,000 美元以下——尽管周一早些时候有所企稳。然而，黄金和白银再次上涨。</p>
</div><p>Today’s Market Minute</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日市场简报</p>
</div><ul>
<li>China’s factory output growth slowed to a 15-month low, while retail sales posted their worst performance since the country abruptly ended its draconian “zero-COVID” curbs, highlighting the urgent need for new growth drivers heading into 2026.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>中国的工业产出增长放缓至 15 个月来的最低水平，而零售销售则创下自该国突然结束严格的 “清零政策” 以来的最差表现，突显出在 2026 年之前迫切需要新的增长动力。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>After a stellar 2025, investors expect shares in European banks to keep heading higher in 2026, supported by strong earnings and, crucially, cost savings stemming from artificial intelligence.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>在经历了辉煌的 2025 年后，投资者预计欧洲银行的股票在 2026 年将继续上涨，得益于强劲的盈利和至关重要的人工智能带来的成本节约。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Big Japanese manufacturers’ business sentiment hit a four-year high in the three months to December, a closely watched survey showed on Monday, reinforcing market expectations the central bank will raise interest rates this week.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本大型制造商的商业信心在截至 12 月的三个月内达到四年来的最高水平，周一发布的一项备受关注的调查显示，这增强了市场对央行本周将加息的预期。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>The United States’ tightening grip on Venezuela’s oil exports could strangle the country’s crude output and cut off President Nicolas Maduro’s main economic lifeline, but it will have limited impact on the global market, argues ROI Energy Columnist Ron Bousso.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国对委内瑞拉石油出口的收紧可能会扼杀该国的原油产量，并切断总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的主要经济生命线，但 ROI 能源专栏作家 Ron Bousso 认为这对全球市场的影响有限。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Investors have long been preoccupied with the question of whether companies are beating their supposed “Street estimates” each quarter, but perhaps the entire concept of “beats” should be up for debate, writes Marty Fridson in his latest column for ROI.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者长期以来一直关注公司是否每季度都能超越所谓的 “华尔街预期”，但 ROI 专栏作家 Marty Fridson 认为，或许整个 “超预期” 概念应该进行辩论。</p>
</div><p>Chart of the day</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日图表</p>
</div><p>China’s new home prices extended declines in November, with monthly prices in the red again and annual declines accelerating to 2.4%. As the property slump persisted, China Vanke made a renewed effort to muster bondholder backing for an onshore debt repayment due this week and avoid a default after the state-backed developer’s plan was rejected. The latest debt crisis in the Chinese property sector, which has been reeling since 2021, comes as data showed slowing factory output and retail sales growth last month and highlighting an urgent need for new growth drivers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国新建住宅价格在 11 月继续下跌，月度价格再次出现负增长，年度降幅加速至 2.4%。随着房地产低迷持续，中国万科再次努力争取债权人的支持，以便在本周到期的境内债务偿还中避免违约，此前国有开发商的计划遭到拒绝。中国房地产行业的最新债务危机自 2021 年以来持续，数据显示上个月工业产出和零售销售增长放缓，突显出迫切需要新的增长动力。</p>
</div><p>Today’s events to watch (all times EDT)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日关注的事件（均为东部时间）</p>
</div><ul>
<li>New York Federal Reserve December manufacturing survey (08:30), NAHB Dec housing market indicator (10:00); Canada November consumer price inflation (1:30)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>纽约联邦储备银行 12 月制造业调查（08:30），NAHB 12 月住房市场指标（10:00）；加拿大 11 月消费者价格通胀（1:30）</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>New York Federal Reserve President John Williams and Fed Board Governor Stephen Miran both speak</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯和美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰均将发表讲话</li>
</ul>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>《晨间投标》的最新一集</p>
</div><p>daily podcast. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每日播客。订阅以听取路透社记者讨论市场和金融领域的重大新闻，每周七天都有播出。所表达的观点仅代表作者本人，不反映路透社新闻的观点，路透社根据信托原则，致力于诚信、独立和无偏见。</p>
</div><p>China’s home price slump deepens (Copy)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国房价下跌加剧（复制）</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4oVWPb0" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/4oVWPb0"/></p>
<p>(By Mike Dolan; Editing by Hugh Lawson)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（作者：Mike Dolan；编辑：Hugh Lawson）</p>
</div>

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