<p>全球宏观分析师卢克·格罗门（Luke Gromen）正在收回对比特币的支持，警告称这一头号加密货币看起来暴露，可能在 2026 年跌至 40,000 美元区间。这标志着格罗门的重大转变，他多年来一直将比特币与黄金（<strong>CM:XAUUSD</strong>）捆绑在一起，视其为对抗政府印钞和货币贬值的终极 “贬值交易” 对冲工具。</p>
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<p>格罗门认为，加密货币的风险回报特征在短期内恶化。他现在认为黄金和某些股票在表达法定货币将失去实际价值的核心论点方面做得更好。触发这种谨慎的关键信号包括比特币近期未能创出新高、突破关键技术移动平均线，以及对量子风险的日益担忧。</p>
<h2><strong>宏观担忧首先影响加密货币</strong></h2>
<p>当前的宏观不安导致比特币与其传统同行黄金之间出现关键分歧。贬值交易理论表明，投资者会转向稀缺的非法定资产，因为政策制定者不可避免地会通过通货膨胀来消除国家债务。然而，黄金目前被视为在急性压力时期的更安全的第一线避风港，而比特币往往更像是一种 “风险资产”，只有在流动性恢复后才会受益。</p>
<p>这种价格脱节，加上分析师中较低的买入评级比例以及对人工智能行业估值的担忧，表明比特币作为价值储存的即时吸引力正在减弱。对格罗门而言，这使得比特币成为一个可以并且应该 “战术性减仓” 的头寸，即使长期的贬值结构论点依然存在。</p>
<h2><strong>比特币多头反击</strong></h2>
<p>专注于比特币的分析师们对格罗门的看跌观点进行了强烈反击，认为他的技术证据薄弱，基于破裂的移动平均线进行卖出是市场已经低迷时的经典错误。链上分析师建议格罗门过于依赖社交媒体叙事，而不是基本的区块链数据。</p>
<p>尽管宏观前景谨慎，但局势并非完全悲观。美国现货比特币 ETF 在上个月经历了一次剧烈的流出后，最近又回归到适度的净流入，表明机构需求正在稳定。最终，格罗门的立场提醒人们，即使是比特币长期价值的最大支持者，在图表和宏观叙事与之对立时，也愿意战术性地减持该资产。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>在撰写本文时，比特币的价格为 86,853.97 美元。</p>
</blockquote>

GBTC

<p>宏观分析师卢克·格罗门预测，比特币可能在 2026 年前跌至 40,000 美元，改变了他对比特币作为贬值对冲工具的看法。他提到比特币未能超越黄金、技术性突破以及量子风险的担忧。尽管比特币的长期价值，格罗门建议战术性减少比特币持有量。比特币分析师反驳了他的看跌观点，指出机构需求正在稳定。目前比特币的价格为 86,853.97 美元</p>

<p>Global macro analyst Luke Gromen is pulling back his support for Bitcoin, warning that the number-one crypto looks exposed and could potentially drop to the $40,000 range in 2026. This marks a big shift for Gromen, who has spent years bundling Bitcoin with gold ( <strong>CM:XAUUSD</strong>) as the ultimate &#34;debasement trade&#34; hedge against governments printing money and weakening currencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球宏观分析师卢克·格罗门（Luke Gromen）正在收回对比特币的支持，警告称这一头号加密货币看起来暴露，可能在 2026 年跌至 40,000 美元区间。这标志着格罗门的重大转变，他多年来一直将比特币与黄金（<strong>CM:XAUUSD</strong>）捆绑在一起，视其为对抗政府印钞和货币贬值的终极 “贬值交易” 对冲工具。</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><h3>享受 TipRanks Premium 50% 折扣，放心投资</h3>
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<li>Unlock hedge-fund level data and powerful investing tools designed to help you make smarter, sharper decisions</li>
<li>Stay ahead of the market with the latest news and analysis so your portfolio is always positioned for maximum potential</li>
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<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>解锁对冲基金级别的数据和强大的投资工具，帮助您做出更聪明、更精准的决策</li>
<li>通过最新的新闻和分析保持市场领先，使您的投资组合始终处于最大潜力的状态</li>
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</div><p>Gromen argues that the crypto's risk-reward profile has worsened in the near term. He now believes gold and certain equities are doing a better job of expressing the core thesis that fiat currencies will lose real value. The key signals triggering this caution include Bitcoin's recent failure to establish new highs versus gold, a breach of key technical moving averages, and growing fears surrounding quantum risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>格罗门认为，加密货币的风险回报特征在短期内恶化。他现在认为黄金和某些股票在表达法定货币将失去实际价值的核心论点方面做得更好。触发这种谨慎的关键信号包括比特币近期未能创出新高、突破关键技术移动平均线，以及对量子风险的日益担忧。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Macro Concerns Are Hitting Crypto First</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>宏观担忧首先影响加密货币</strong></h2>
</div><p>The current macro jitters are causing a key divergence between Bitcoin and its traditional peer, gold. The debasement trade theory suggests investors move into scarce, non-fiat assets because policymakers will inevitably inflate away national debts. However, gold is currently seen as the safer, first-line refuge in times of acute stress, while Bitcoin often behaves more like a &#34;risk-on&#34; asset that benefits only after liquidity returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前的宏观不安导致比特币与其传统同行黄金之间出现关键分歧。贬值交易理论表明，投资者会转向稀缺的非法定资产，因为政策制定者不可避免地会通过通货膨胀来消除国家债务。然而，黄金目前被视为在急性压力时期的更安全的第一线避风港，而比特币往往更像是一种 “风险资产”，只有在流动性恢复后才会受益。</p>
</div><p>This price disconnect, combined with the low Buy-rating ratio among analysts and concerns about the AI industry's valuation, suggests Bitcoin is losing its immediate appeal as a store of value. For Gromen, this makes Bitcoin a position that can and should be &#34;sized down tactically&#34; even if the long-term structural case for debasement remains intact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种价格脱节，加上分析师中较低的买入评级比例以及对人工智能行业估值的担忧，表明比特币作为价值储存的即时吸引力正在减弱。对格罗门而言，这使得比特币成为一个可以并且应该 “战术性减仓” 的头寸，即使长期的贬值结构论点依然存在。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Bitcoin Bulls Push Back</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>比特币多头反击</strong></h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin-focused analysts are pushing back hard against Gromen's bearish call, arguing that his technical evidence is weak and that selling based on broken moving averages is a classic mistake made when markets are already depressed. Onchain analysts suggest that Gromen is relying too heavily on social media narratives rather than fundamental underlying blockchain data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>专注于比特币的分析师们对格罗门的看跌观点进行了强烈反击，认为他的技术证据薄弱，基于破裂的移动平均线进行卖出是市场已经低迷时的经典错误。链上分析师建议格罗门过于依赖社交媒体叙事，而不是基本的区块链数据。</p>
</div><p>Despite the cautious macro outlook, the picture is not one of outright doom. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, after a sharp exodus last month, have recently swung back to modest net inflows, suggesting institutional demand is stabilizing. Ultimately, Gromen's stance serves as a crucial reminder that even the biggest proponents of Bitcoin's long-term value are willing to shed the asset tactically when the charts and macro narratives align against it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管宏观前景谨慎，但局势并非完全悲观。美国现货比特币 ETF 在上个月经历了一次剧烈的流出后，最近又回归到适度的净流入，表明机构需求正在稳定。最终，格罗门的立场提醒人们，即使是比特币长期价值的最大支持者，在图表和宏观叙事与之对立时，也愿意战术性地减持该资产。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $86,853.97.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>在撰写本文时，比特币的价格为 86,853.97 美元。</p>
</blockquote>
</div>

宏观专家卢克·格罗门预测比特币将达到 40,000 美元。“贬值交易” 是否已经失效？