<p>上周美元指数在压力下收盘，但并未崩溃。价格大部分时间停滞在之前的反弹上，因为广泛但不均匀的抛售导致其表现不佳。不过，它仍然强于长期疲软的 日元。</p>
<p>市场情绪波动，资产类别之间存在分歧。科技和人工智能相关股票下跌，而更传统和价值导向的行业表现较好。这种混合状态支持了高贝塔外汇，但未能达到经典的 “风险偏好” 在美元上的投降。</p>
<p>在表面之下，货币最重要的发展是美国利率的突然重新定价，10 年期收益率在短暂测试关键 技术支撑 后迅速上升。这一变化更多是由于对未来美联储领导层和宽松周期持久性的政策风险重新评估，而非数据驱动。</p>
<p>对于外汇市场而言，这一变动给一直在形成的清晰看空美元叙事注入了怀疑。其他方面，政策分歧仍然是主导主题。瑞士法郎在瑞士国家银行反对过早宽松预期后保持强势。欧元主要因美元疲软而上涨，而非自身宏观故事的改善。</p>
<p>尽管新西兰元表现良好，受到相对央行鹰派立场的支持，但澳元因疲软的劳动数据和加息预期减弱而落后。英镑因增长数据疲软和国内背景脆弱而下跌。</p>
<h2>关注的货币对</h2>
<h3>1. GBP SGD</h3>
<p>该货币对在突破大部分 11 月的紧密整合后上涨。然而，在达到关键水平 1.73170 后，未能维持其动能。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/15124744/GBPSGD_2025-12-14_17-42-39-1024x672.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="672" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/15124744/GBPSGD_2025-12-14_17-42-39-1024x672.png"/></p>
<p>GBP SGD 日线图，来源：TradingView</p>
<p>趋势现在面临消退和回调至上个月低点的风险。只要价格未能在日线图上收于之前高点之上，这一论点更有可能实现。</p>
<h3>2. EUR NZD</h3>
<p>在经历了从年内高点的显著回调后，该货币对在 10 月低点找到了支撑。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/15124733/EURNZD_2025-12-14_17-51-23-1024x690.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="690" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/15124733/EURNZD_2025-12-14_17-51-23-1024x690.png"/></p>
<p>EUR NZD 日线图，来源：TradingView</p>
<p>尽管如此，整体趋势仍然看涨。特别是如果价格能够突破短期阻力位 2.0303。在这种情况下，向关键水平 2.05160 的潜在激增将是一个机会。</p>
<h3>下周展望</h3>
<p>重点将放在观察美国收益率是否能够维持上周的反弹。10 年期利率的持久突破将为美元提供支撑，并可能引发在拥挤的空头头寸中进行平仓，特别是针对欧元和瑞士法郎。</p>
<p>如果收益率未能继续上涨，将恢复美元的整体下行趋势，并支持高贝塔外汇。从数据来看，美国的通胀和劳动市场发布将主要显示它们在多大程度上验证或挑战美联储路径的近期重新定价。预计英格兰银行将降息 25 个基点，日本银行将加息 25 个基点，而市场普遍预期欧洲央行将维持在 2.15%。</p>
<p><strong>免责声明：</strong> 本文中表达的任何观点不应被视为投资建议，仅代表作者个人观点。新加坡外汇俱乐部对基于本文内容的任何财务决策不承担责任。我们提供教育、研究和经纪人评论。读者可以将这些数据用于信息和教育目的。</p>
<p><strong><em>Benzinga 免责声明：本文来自一位未付外部贡献者。它不代表 Benzinga 的报道，并且未经过内容或准确性编辑。</em></strong></p>

<p>外汇市场受到中央银行行动的影响，美元指数因对未来美联储领导层的政策风险重新评估而承压。瑞士法郎保持强势，而欧元则因美元疲软而上涨。英镑受到疲弱增长数据的影响。市场的关键关注点在于美国收益率和中央银行的决策，包括对英格兰银行、日本银行和欧洲央行预期的利率变化。市场情绪复杂，科技股下跌，而价值板块表现较好</p>

<p>The US Dollar Index closed last week under pressure but not in a collapse. The price mostly stalled the prior rebound, as broad but uneven selling prompted its underperformance. Still, it was stronger than the chronically weak Japanese yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周美元指数在压力下收盘，但并未崩溃。价格大部分时间停滞在之前的反弹上，因为广泛但不均匀的抛售导致其表现不佳。不过，它仍然强于长期疲软的 日元。</p>
</div><p>Markets saw choppy risk sentiment, with divergence between asset classes. Tech and AI-related equities sank, while more traditional and value-oriented sectors fared better. This mix kept high‑beta FX supported but stopped short of a classic &#34;risk‑on&#34; capitulation in the Dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场情绪波动，资产类别之间存在分歧。科技和人工智能相关股票下跌，而更传统和价值导向的行业表现较好。这种混合状态支持了高贝塔外汇，但未能达到经典的 “风险偏好” 在美元上的投降。</p>
</div><p>Under the surface, the most important development for currencies was the sudden repricing in U.S. rates, with 10‑year yields snapping higher after briefly testing key technical support. The shift was driven less by data and more by policy‑risk reassessment around the future Fed leadership and the durability of the easing cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在表面之下，货币最重要的发展是美国利率的突然重新定价，10 年期收益率在短暂测试关键 技术支撑 后迅速上升。这一变化更多是由于对未来美联储领导层和宽松周期持久性的政策风险重新评估，而非数据驱动。</p>
</div><p>For FX, that move injected doubt into the clean bearish USD narrative that had been building. Elsewhere, policy divergence remained the dominant theme. The Swiss Franc stayed bid after the SNB leaned against premature easing expectations. Euro gained primarily on Dollar weakness rather than any improvement in its own macro story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于外汇市场而言，这一变动给一直在形成的清晰看空美元叙事注入了怀疑。其他方面，政策分歧仍然是主导主题。瑞士法郎在瑞士国家银行反对过早宽松预期后保持强势。欧元主要因美元疲软而上涨，而非自身宏观故事的改善。</p>
</div><p>While the New Zealand Dollar did fine, supported by relative central bank hawkishness, the Aussie lagged on softer labour data and fading rate hike pricing. The British pound traded lower on weak growth data and a more vulnerable domestic backdrop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管新西兰元表现良好，受到相对央行鹰派立场的支持，但澳元因疲软的劳动数据和加息预期减弱而落后。英镑因增长数据疲软和国内背景脆弱而下跌。</p>
</div><h2>Pairs in Focus</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关注的货币对</h2>
</div><h3>1. GBP SGD</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>1. GBP SGD</h3>
</div><p>This pair rallied after breaking out of the tight consolidation that occurred through most of November. Yet, after reaching a key level at 1.73170, it failed to sustain its momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该货币对在突破大部分 11 月的紧密整合后上涨。然而，在达到关键水平 1.73170 后，未能维持其动能。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/15124744/GBPSGD_2025-12-14_17-42-39-1024x672.png" alt="" original-src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/15124744/GBPSGD_2025-12-14_17-42-39-1024x672.png"/></p>
<p>GBP SGD daily chart, Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GBP SGD 日线图，来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>The trend is now at risk of a fadeout and a correction to the lows of the last month. This thesis is more likely to play out as long as the price doesn’t close above the previous high on the daily chart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>趋势现在面临消退和回调至上个月低点的风险。只要价格未能在日线图上收于之前高点之上，这一论点更有可能实现。</p>
</div><h3>2. EUR NZD</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>2. EUR NZD</h3>
</div><p>After a significant pullback from the year’s highs, this pair found support at the October lows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在经历了从年内高点的显著回调后，该货币对在 10 月低点找到了支撑。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/15124733/EURNZD_2025-12-14_17-51-23-1024x690.png" alt="" original-src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/15124733/EURNZD_2025-12-14_17-51-23-1024x690.png"/></p>
<p>EUR NZD daily chart, Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EUR NZD 日线图，来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Still, an overall trend remains bullish. Particularly if the price manages to overcome a short-term resistance at 2.0303. In that case, a potential for a spike toward a key level of 2.05160 would be an opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，整体趋势仍然看涨。特别是如果价格能够突破短期阻力位 2.0303。在这种情况下，向关键水平 2.05160 的潜在激增将是一个机会。</p>
</div><h3>The Week Ahead</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>下周展望</h3>
</div><p>The focus will be on observing whether the U.S. yields can sustain last week's rebound. A durable break higher in 10‑year rates would provide the Dollar with a floor and could trigger position‑squaring among crowded shorts, particularly against the Euro and the Swiss Franc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重点将放在观察美国收益率是否能够维持上周的反弹。10 年期利率的持久突破将为美元提供支撑，并可能引发在拥挤的空头头寸中进行平仓，特别是针对欧元和瑞士法郎。</p>
</div><p>Failure of yields to follow through would revive the broader USD downtrend and support high‑beta FX. Data‑wise, U.S. inflation and labour‑market releases will primarily show how far they validate or challenge the recent repricing of the Fed path. The Bank of England is expected to cut by 25 bps, the Bank of Japan to hike by 25 bps, while the consensus is for the ECB to stay put at 2.15%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果收益率未能继续上涨，将恢复美元的整体下行趋势，并支持高贝塔外汇。从数据来看，美国的通胀和劳动市场发布将主要显示它们在多大程度上验证或挑战美联储路径的近期重新定价。预计英格兰银行将降息 25 个基点，日本银行将加息 25 个基点，而市场普遍预期欧洲央行将维持在 2.15%。</p>
</div><p><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> Any opinions expressed in this article are not to be considered investment advice and are solely those of the authors. Singapore Forex Club is not responsible for any financial decisions based on this article's contents. We provide education, research, and broker reviews. Readers may use this data for informational and educational purposes only.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>免责声明：</strong> 本文中表达的任何观点不应被视为投资建议，仅代表作者个人观点。新加坡外汇俱乐部对基于本文内容的任何财务决策不承担责任。我们提供教育、研究和经纪人评论。读者可以将这些数据用于信息和教育目的。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>Benzinga 免责声明：本文来自一位未付外部贡献者。它不代表 Benzinga 的报道，并且未经过内容或准确性编辑。</em></strong></p>
</div>

三种不同的央行行动将影响本周的外汇市场