<h3><strong>早期下行走势测试关键支撑</strong></h3>
<p><strong>美元/日元在亚太时段下跌</strong>，短暂 <strong>跌破 4 小时图上的 200 条移动平均线，最低至 155.29</strong>。这一下行探测与上周四的价格走势相呼应，当时该货币对也跌破了同样的移动平均线，但随后 <strong>迅速反弹</strong>。在之前的走势中，上行动能 <strong>在 4 小时图上接近下滑的 100 条移动平均线时停滞不前</strong>，显示出 <strong>买方在阻力位上有机会但未能继续推进</strong>——正如卖方未能在支撑位下方延续下行。</p>
<h3><strong>收益率对下跌有所贡献，但动能减弱</strong></h3>
<p>今天的早期疲软受到 <strong>美国国债收益率回落的影响</strong>，<strong>10 年期收益率最初下跌接近 5 个基点</strong>，随后大部分回升。目前 <strong>下跌约 1.4 个基点</strong>，减轻了对美元/日元的下行压力。随着收益率的稳定，该货币对在较低水平找到了买家。</p>
<h3><strong>摆动区域保持，价格回升至 200 条移动平均线之上</strong></h3>
<p>从技术角度来看，<strong>本次低点进入了 154.78 至 155.04 之间的熟悉摆动区域</strong>，买方之前对此表现出兴趣。该支撑位保持，促使反弹，<strong>将美元/日元推回至 4 小时图上的 200 条移动平均线之上（155.29）</strong>。目前价格 <strong>被困于 100 条和 200 条移动平均线之间</strong>，该货币对已回到 <strong>中性区域</strong>，反映出犹豫而非趋势信念。</p>
<h3><strong>中性区间为下一次突破铺平道路</strong></h3>
<p>随着新交易日的临近，<strong>方向性突破的机会仍然存在</strong>——要么向上突破阻力，要么向下突破支撑。影响平衡的可能是 <strong>宏观催化剂而非纯技术因素</strong>，考虑到过去几个交易日的紧密区间和双方的失败突破。</p>
<h3><strong>繁重的数据日历提高波动风险</strong></h3>
<p><strong>本周经济日历内容丰富</strong>，增加了决定性走势的可能性。在美国，市场将消化 <strong>11 月就业报告（预期增加 50K）</strong>，以及 <strong>零售销售和消费者物价指数</strong>，这些都可能 <strong>推动美元上涨或下跌</strong>，具体取决于结果。在日本，关注 <strong>周五的日本银行政策决定</strong>，<strong>市场预期更倾向于 25 个基点的加息</strong>——这可能成为日元货币对的波动触发因素。</p>
<h3><strong>观看视频分析</strong></h3>
<p>在上面的视频中，<strong>Greg Michalowski</strong>，_《攻击货币趋势》的作者，讲解了推动美元/日元的 <strong>实时技术设置</strong>。他强调了 <strong>风险的定义位置</strong>，解释了 <strong>如何解读重复的移动平均线失败</strong>，并描绘了 <strong>最重要的下一个目标</strong>，等待该货币对的下一次推动。</p>

<p>美元/日元货币对经历了一次短暂的跌破 200 日移动平均线的情况，类似于上周四的走势，随后反弹至中性区间。早期的疲软受到美国国债收益率回落的影响。该货币对目前在 100 日和 200 日移动平均线之间，显示出犹豫不决的状态。即将发布的美国经济数据和日本银行的政策决定可能引发波动。Greg Michalowski 提供了关于美元/日元技术形态和潜在目标的视频分析</p>

<h3><strong>Early downside move tests key support</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>早期下行走势测试关键支撑</strong></h3>
</div><p>The <strong>USDJPY moved lower during the Asia-Pacific session</strong>, briefly <strong>breaking below the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 155.29</strong>. That downside probe echoed last Thursday’s price action, when the pair also slipped below the same moving average, only to <strong>quickly rotate higher</strong>. In that prior move, upside momentum <strong>stalled near the falling 100-bar moving average</strong> on the 4-hour chart, showing that <strong>buyers had their chance above resistance and couldn’t follow through</strong>—just as sellers failed to extend below support.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美元/日元在亚太时段下跌</strong>，短暂 <strong>跌破 4 小时图上的 200 条移动平均线，最低至 155.29</strong>。这一下行探测与上周四的价格走势相呼应，当时该货币对也跌破了同样的移动平均线，但随后 <strong>迅速反弹</strong>。在之前的走势中，上行动能 <strong>在 4 小时图上接近下滑的 100 条移动平均线时停滞不前</strong>，显示出 <strong>买方在阻力位上有机会但未能继续推进</strong>——正如卖方未能在支撑位下方延续下行。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Yields contribute to the dip, but momentum fades</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>收益率对下跌有所贡献，但动能减弱</strong></h3>
</div><p>Today’s early weakness was helped by a <strong>pullback in U.S. Treasury yields</strong>, with the <strong>10-year yield initially down close to 5 basis points</strong> before retracing much of that move. It is now <strong>down around 1.4 basis points</strong>, reducing the downward pressure on USDJPY. As yields stabilized, the currency pair found buyers at lower levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的早期疲软受到 <strong>美国国债收益率回落的影响</strong>，<strong>10 年期收益率最初下跌接近 5 个基点</strong>，随后大部分回升。目前 <strong>下跌约 1.4 个基点</strong>，减轻了对美元/日元的下行压力。随着收益率的稳定，该货币对在较低水平找到了买家。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Swing area holds as price snaps back above the 200-bar MA</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>摆动区域保持，价格回升至 200 条移动平均线之上</strong></h3>
</div><p>From a technical standpoint, the <strong>session low pushed into a familiar swing area between 154.78 and 155.04</strong>, where buyers have previously shown interest. That support held, prompting a rebound that <strong>lifted USDJPY back above the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (155.29)</strong>. With price now <strong>trapped between the 100-bar and 200-bar moving averages</strong>, the pair has returned to <strong>neutral territory</strong>, reflecting indecision rather than trend conviction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从技术角度来看，<strong>本次低点进入了 154.78 至 155.04 之间的熟悉摆动区域</strong>，买方之前对此表现出兴趣。该支撑位保持，促使反弹，<strong>将美元/日元推回至 4 小时图上的 200 条移动平均线之上（155.29）</strong>。目前价格 <strong>被困于 100 条和 200 条移动平均线之间</strong>，该货币对已回到 <strong>中性区域</strong>，反映出犹豫而非趋势信念。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Neutral range sets the stage for the next break</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>中性区间为下一次突破铺平道路</strong></h3>
</div><p>With a new trading day approaching, <strong>the opportunity for a directional break remains open</strong>—either higher through resistance or lower through support. What tips the balance is likely to be <strong>macro catalysts rather than pure technicals</strong>, given the tight range and failed breaks on both sides over the past several sessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着新交易日的临近，<strong>方向性突破的机会仍然存在</strong>——要么向上突破阻力，要么向下突破支撑。影响平衡的可能是 <strong>宏观催化剂而非纯技术因素</strong>，考虑到过去几个交易日的紧密区间和双方的失败突破。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Heavy data calendar raises volatility risk</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>繁重的数据日历提高波动风险</strong></h3>
</div><p>The <strong>economic calendar is packed this week</strong>, increasing the odds of a decisive move. In the U.S., markets will digest the <strong>November jobs report (expected +50K)</strong>, along with <strong>retail sales and CPI</strong>, all of which could <strong>either lift the dollar or push it lower</strong> depending on the outcomes. In Japan, attention turns to the <strong>Bank of Japan policy decision on Friday</strong>, where <strong>expectations are leaning more toward a 25-basis-point hike</strong>—a potential volatility trigger for JPY pairs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>本周经济日历内容丰富</strong>，增加了决定性走势的可能性。在美国，市场将消化 <strong>11 月就业报告（预期增加 50K）</strong>，以及 <strong>零售销售和消费者物价指数</strong>，这些都可能 <strong>推动美元上涨或下跌</strong>，具体取决于结果。在日本，关注 <strong>周五的日本银行政策决定</strong>，<strong>市场预期更倾向于 25 个基点的加息</strong>——这可能成为日元货币对的波动触发因素。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Watch the video analysis</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>观看视频分析</strong></h3>
</div><p>In the video above, <strong>Greg Michalowski</strong>, author of <em>Attacking Currency Trends</em>, walks through the <strong>real-time technical setup</strong> driving USDJPY. He highlights <strong>where risk is defined</strong>, explains <strong>how to interpret the repeated moving-average failures</strong>, and maps out <strong>the next targets that matter most</strong> as the pair waits for its next shove.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上面的视频中，<strong>Greg Michalowski</strong>，_《攻击货币趋势》的作者，讲解了推动美元/日元的 <strong>实时技术设置</strong>。他强调了 <strong>风险的定义位置</strong>，解释了 <strong>如何解读重复的移动平均线失败</strong>，并描绘了 <strong>最重要的下一个目标</strong>，等待该货币对的下一次推动。</p>
</div>

美元兑日元技术展望：价格下滑后反弹回到中性区间